Sabah was invaded in mid February 2013 by a ragtag group of Sulu warriors armed with machete, bow and arrows, home-made firearms and a few automatic weapons
traveling in small boats from Sulu to stake their claim to the province of Sabah.
This so-called Royal Army of Sulu, initially numbering less than two hundreds, were hardly seen as a threat to the professionally, well equipped Malaysian armed forces.
However, things took a surprising turn with the conflict now dragging into it's third weeks with mounting casualties on both sides.
What went wrong?
1. Playing the race card with an eye on General Election
Bringing in the race card in the earliest day of the conflict was Dr. M. Mohamed. He went on open channel to say that government should employed the soft touch as the
Sulus were Muslim brethren.
This muddled the issue behind the conflict and hampered the strategies and restricted the action of the Cabinet and the military.
To add oil to fire, both Hishammuddin Hussein and Zahidi Hamidi with an eye on one day becoming prime minister also added their sound bites to urge restraint on the part
of Malaysian armed forces effectively tying the hands of the generals and soldiers on the ground.
This emboldened and energized the Sulu Sultan and his invaders against seeking a peaceful compromise at the early stage of the conflict.
2. Lack of a centralized crisis management strategies
From the onset of the conflict, it was clear that the Malaysian Cabinet and armed forces were taking a laid-back attitude letting the local police command take charge with their
limited tactical skill and resources.
3. Lack of Good Intelligence (Prior and During This Conflict)
It was also obvious from the early days of the conflict that Malaysian forces lack intelligence on the force composition of the invaders, their local sponsors and supporters, type
of firepower, etc, etc that were critical in formulating an effective containment and engagement strategy!
4. First mover advantage
As a result of item 1 to 3 above, the Malaysian lost the first mover advantage to deploy overwhelming force to cordon the invaders and cut-off their reinforcement, supply and retreat.
5. Deploying overwhelming forces to create shock and awe
Once it became clear that the conflict is not going to be resolved peaceful, Malaysian Armed Forces did not hesitate to deploy their pride and prized hardware for good use.
Timed for prime time television audience in West Malaysia, Sukhoi fighter bombers took to the sky and heavy mortars of the Malaysian armed force commenced bombardment of a
huge swath of empty jungle while the invaders morphed with the evacuees and escaped their dragnet.
A Scorpene submarine was also deployed to form a blockage but were not able to detect the invaders' small motorized sampans on their radar and sonar allowing the invaders free
access to and from Sulu.
So, while the conflict is still on-going, is there a lesson or two for Singapore and Singaporeans?
