Bro Scroobal, thanks again for highlighting this article and issue..The more I read about it, the more I wondered why you were mulling over this issue..
As I have stated before this is the 154th cum PAP battle cry.
However, like you I mulled over the issue and came across this thread that you started…
http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?118141-PAP-Inside-on-Hougang
Forgive me for assuming but it dawned on me, you are perhaps wondering where the next battle lines will be drawn and where will OYK’s place be in the PAP’s “grand scheme”
As I researched on OYK, I was surprised that he was actually listed in Wikipedia,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ong_Ye_Kung and the write up on him seems pretty impressive for a defeated PAP candidate..
Then I researched further and discovered this other thing…
http://www.pap.org.sg/contact.php..OYK is the appointed PAP grassroots advisor for Kaki Bukit constituency...Funny thing though, unlike Desmond Choo, OYK does not even have an e-mail address.. However, same goes for Zainul Abidin, who is advisor for Eunos constituency…
For Zainul, I can understand because, IMO, he is seat warmer for next minority PAP candidate but OYK???
The only link to OYK email address is from the SGDi website, where he is listed as a board member for JTC Corp..
http://app.sgdi.gov.sg/listing.asp?agency_subtype=dept&agency_id=0000000141
Allow me to digress a little…
A close look at Kaki Bukit constituency and you will note that it was part of now defunct Eunos GRC from 1988 to 1997 and later formed part of East Coast GRC from 1997 to 2006, became part of Marine Parade GRC in 2006 and later transferred to Aljunied GRC…
Eunos Constituency on the other hand was part of the defunct Eunos GRC from 1988 to 1997, became part of Aljunied GRC from 1997 till 2011
As usual with gerrymandering and election boundaries being redrawn every GE, the Kaki Bukit and Eunos Constituency of today are different from when both constituencies were SMCs and when both became part of their respective GRCs..
However, both the Eunos and Kaki Bukit Constituencies of today have a very strong PAP support base. More so for Kaki Bukit as it had enjoyed the benefits of being part of a PAP GRC for quite a period of time. Unlike Paya Lebar, Serangoon and Bedok Reservoir-Punggol, there is a very strong anti-PAP sentiment in these constituencies. For the Bedok Reservoir-Punggol, it is my observation that the anti-PAP sentiment is more in the Punggol ward but the Bedok Reservoir ward still has a strong PAP support base. Also the reason for the anti-PAP sentiment in these areas, are due to the antics of Cynthia Phua, Lim Hwee Hua and Yeo Guat Kwang, the latter is extremely lucky as his constituency became part of Ang Mo Kio GRC in GE2011
Before GE2011, there was a strong rumour that Kaki Bukit and Eunos will be broken up to either become part of East Coast GRC or Marine Parade GRC but the powers that be decided to let both come under Aljunied GRC as a counter balance for the PAP as they knew the WP were setting their eyes on Aljunied GRC.. We all know for now, that this was a costly mistake for the PAP and the rest as they say is history…
We all know Pritam Singh has been assigned to Eunos Constituency and Mohd Faisal Manap the Kaki Bukit Constituency.. LTK is overseeing the Bedok Reservoir Punggol Constituency..
In my observation and from what I have gathered, both Pritam and Md Faisal are not popular in their respective constituencies. LTK on the other hand has strong support from the Punggol ward but the sentiment is not as cordial in the Bedok Reservoir ward. However, of the 3, Md Faisal is the least popular. Pritam on other hand is slowly gaining ground.
FYI, the picture of OYK playing soccer with a Muslim NGO took place on Vesak Day and it was at the Muhammadiyah Welfare Home Field …
http://zh-tw.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.409631349057155.92813.154612391225720&type=3
The Muhammadiyah NGO is a Muslim NGO that runs halfway houses and old folks home..it is currently based in Bedok North Street 3 and is within Kaki Bukit constituency…
No if we were to look at the GRCs surrounding these 3 constituencies, you will note it is surrounded by East Coast GRC and Marine Parade GRC..
East Coast GRC is helmed by Zorro Lim together with Lee Yi Shyan, Jessica Tan, Raymond Lim and Maliki..
There is strong indication that either Zorro Lim or Raymond Lim may step down next GE..
Marine Parade GRC is helmed by none other than GCT together Tan Chin Juan, Fatimah Lateef, TPL and Seah Kian Peng..
I think line up speaks for itself unless GCT decides to stay on 1 more term…The rest are newbies save for Fatimah Lateef and Seah Kian Peng
As stated in your thread
http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?118141-PAP-Inside-on-Hougang Joo Chiat SMC is a goner more so with Charles “Lesser Mortals” Chong…
Charles Chong from what I heard is in pre-retirement mood and is merely warming seat for next PAP candidate,
We all know by now, the PAP being the PAP will fight tooth and nail to make sure that it remains in power or at least maintain the status quo
It is my humble opinion that these will be the battle lines for next GE and where OYK will fit in the grand scheme of the PAP
Scenario 1;
Kaki Bukit and Eunos broken up and absorbed into East Coast and Marine Parade GRC..OYK fielded as candidate for East Coast or Marine Parade GRC, maybe replacing Raymond Lim or even Seah Kian Peng..
However, as consolation, Bradell Heights and parts of MacPherson go to Aljunied GRC
WP is forced to deploy Md Faisal or Pritam to these areas..
East Coast GRC is bolstered by a strong PAP support base and a PAP win is in sure hands..
A WP loss is highly possible as Bradell Heights and MacPherson, contrary to popular belief enjoy strong PAP support…
Scenario 2
Aljunied makeup remains with few changes, perhaps reduction in Kaki Bukit constituency and Bedok Reservoir wards with this shaved quarters going to East Coast GRC. Eunos remains part of Aljunied GRC. Also reduction in number of MPs, maybe to 4..
In this scenario, we may see the GRC renamed to something like Eunos-Paya Lebar GRC. Also reduction in number of MPs, maybe to 4.
It is likely, WP is forced to retain Faisal Manap to appease minority support but Pritam may be deployed elsewhere..
Again OYK fielded as East Coast GRC PAP candidate.
Likelihood of same scenario being played out for OYK is very strong.
WP MAY retain Aljunied GRC but with slight swing to PAP..and 1 of current 5 WP MPs will be gone..
Scenario 3
Gerrymandering occurs but no significant change to Aljunied makeup.. Joo Chiat is however broken up and divided between East Coast and Marine Parade..whilst still retaining a constituency status…
OYK fielded in either Marine Parade or East Coast…
As usual riding on the coat tail of others, he becomes a MP…
Status quo remains..Aljunied is not renamed and remains in WP hands…
Scenario 4
Showdown in Joo Chiat between OYK and YJJ of WP..
OYK wins with a good majority..
Sad to say JC residents many of whom are self-serving selfish pricks will choose OYK as during hustings, JC residents will be told that OYK is minister material
Status quo remains…WP retains Aljunied and Hougang…
In all 4 scenarios as long as OYK is elected you will see him be made into MOS in no time and later fast tracked to Cabinet Minister..
Of the 4, I believe that Scenario 1 may be strong possibility and it can be to advantage of PAP as well.
Whilst we may cry foul and accuse them of gerrymandering, the PAP aided by the 154th will explain to the people that Aljunied GRC is now truly to it’s word unlike what Pritam has been saying to the crowd “There is no Aljunied Road in Aljunied GRC” and they (PAP and 154th) will go on further saying that Aljunied Road is now in Aljunied GRC. As usual the 60% will lap it up …
Scenario 2 will depend on PAP’s report card in next 4 years
However, according to some close sources, renaming of Aljunied is certainly on the cards, as Pritam is giving the PAP an excuse to do so…
Scenario 3 and 4 will again depend on PAP’s report card for next 4 to 5 years and if it has been as dismal as this past few months may be played out…
Before I end my humble take on why OYK and Zainul do not place their e-mail addresses in the PAP grassroots advisor list..
Not too long ago, there was an article citing lesser attendance at WP MPS, Mr Faisal was interviewed and he said that numbers have dwindled..if memory serves me right the article also stated that those in opposition wards also visit the PAP grassroots advisor..
I think in today’s Digital age, it is mainly old folks or those without internet access who go for MPs….for the latter I would say they are the underprivileged and quite a number are at Kaki Bukit constituency…for those who do have internet access usually see the MP in dire circumstances…
As I mentioned before, the PAP support base is strong in these constituencies but how do you draw them to you PERSONALLY, especially in the Digital age, simply do not have an e-mail address…voila..it works and added plus point is when these people come to the brainwashing occurs…
In a country obsessed with numbers and statistics, the number of people running to the PAP grassroots advisor for “help” instead of their elected MP will definitely be a card that the PAP will throw in during the hustings
I hope that by now in the aftermath of the Hougang BE, the WP do buck up and man up..it is time to restrategize..the WP appeals to the centre left..it is now time to also appeal to the fence sitters..walk the ground in East Coast and Marine Parade and Joo Chiat..so even if gerrymandering occurs you are prepared…please do it for the sake of the PEOPLE…
Remember, if the powers that be want their man in, they will move ‘Heaven and Earth’ to do it, as long as they know they have a new puppet on their strings…
