New Tory PM at no. 10, come tues?

EAOinAoVUAE-WKA.jpg
 
Mock BoJo all you want, but London literally became a terrorist-infested shithole once he stopped being its mayor.

Of course, electing a Paki Muslim agitator to be his replacement didn't help things either.
 
Seriously why nobody interested in his vegetable? Successful people like @Froggy , Boris and Trump got nice chicks.
Just look at Najib

nVVcnHrF_400x400-1-e1561301403686.jpg


Career-14.jpg
 
Seriously why nobody interested in his vegetable? Successful people like @Froggy , Boris and Trump got nice chicks.
Just look at Najib

nVVcnHrF_400x400-1-e1561301403686.jpg


Career-14.jpg

She is not that chio and looks old for a 33 yo,,,but provided she 'keeps' herself,,Boris is still better off than Pinky

Carrie Symonds: Dress worn by Boris Johnson's girlfriend sells out within hours



Chelsea Ritschel

2 hrs ago














Are artificially sweetened drinks any healthier?




Mum lashes Woolworths over 'wasteful' groceries delivery

AAEOdqx.img
© Provided by Independent Digital News & Media Limited
Carrie Symonds is proving she has what it takes to be a fashion influencer, after a dress she wore to watch her partner Boris Johnson speak sold out within hours.
On Wednesday, the former PR chief wore a pink and red floral midi dress by Ghost while making her first appearance as the girlfriend of the new prime minister of the UK.


The 31-year-old paired the £120 dress with nude pumps and pink lipstick.
Shortly after her appearance, the dress, which can be purchased in sizes XXS to XL on the Ghost website, was only available in limited sizes, before it sold out completely.
AAEPpXR.img
© Reuters Boris Johnson's girlfriend, Carrie Symonds, is seen outside Downing Street in London, Britain July 24, 2019. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls - RC1D56F4EA60 According to Ghost, the dress “features a high neckline with back fastening and voluminous sleeves and seam detailing at the bodice for definition”.
There’s also a slight flare to the skirt and “an invisible side zip for an ultra-flattering fit”.
On social media, people were quick to praise the 31-year-old’s style and outfit choice.
AAEPGaE.img
© AP Carrie Symonds, third left, the girlfriend of Britain's new Prime Minister Boris Johnson waits in 10 Downing Street, London, Wednesday, July 24, 2019. Boris Johnson has replaced Theresa May as Prime Minister, following her resignation last month after Parliament repeatedly rejected the Brexit withdrawal agreement she struck with the European Union. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein) “Reward provided for anyone who can tell me where Carrie Symonds’ dress is from,” one person tweeted.
Good Morning Britain host Piers Morgan also expressed his approval of the dress, writing on Twitter: “Speaking in my capacity as Britain’s fashion expert, I loved Carrie Symonds’ dress.”
The speed with which the dress sold out is similar to the “Meghan effect”, which sees outfits worn by Meghan Markle sell out within hours.
Pictures: Here's everything you need to know about Boris Johnson's partner Carrie Symonds




 
Wasn't attributing to his mop?:geek:

Boris Johnson: Premiership will be the start of a golden age

p07hsqbn.jpg

Boris Johnson holds his first cabinet meeting since becoming prime minister.


Boris Johnson has promised the "beginning of a new golden age", as he makes a first Commons statement as PM.
Speaking to MPs, Boris Johnson said his government would throw itself into Brexit negotiations with energy.
He said other arrangements for the Northern Ireland backstop were "perfectly compatible with the Belfast Agreement to which we are, of course, steadfastly committed".


He said Michael Gove would make plans for a no-deal Brexit a "top priority".
He also assured EU citizens they would have "absolute certainty" of their right to live and remain in the UK.


Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn responded to the statement saying: "The country is deeply worried the new prime minister overestimates himself.
He said Mr Johnson inherits "a country that has been held back by austerity".


On Thursday, Mr Johnson addressed his cabinet for the first time as prime minister.
Boris Johnson told the cabinet they had "a momentous task ahead", as he repeated his commitment for the UK to leave the EU on 31 October.


What has Mr Johnson said?
Speaking to his cabinet Mr Johnson said: "As you all know we have a momentous task ahead of us, at a pivotal moment in our country's history.
"We are now committed, all of us, to leaving the European Union on October 31 or indeed earlier - no ifs, no buts.
"But we are not going to wait until October 31 to get on with a fantastic new agenda for our country, and that means delivering the priorities of the people."
He also told the room it was "wonderful to see this new team assembled here" which respects the "depth and breadth of talent in our extraordinary party".
Mr Johnson also used his first speech as prime minister to reiterate his determination to take the UK out of the EU by the 31 October "no ifs, no buts".
The UK was originally supposed to leave the EU on 29 March but the deadline was moved to 31 October, after MPs rejected Mrs May's withdrawal deal three times.
_108025588_cleveryjack.jpg
_108025752_trussreesmogg2.jpg
 
Britain's Johnson rejects 'unacceptable' Brexit deal

by Dmitry ZAKS
,
Agence-France Presse25 July 2019


  • 75e2c4830b12906dfd6f362cb2984147ddbe147e.jpg
  • 4848673b1d6afc7e8af478f53b174803a63e444d.jpg
  • c93dea971b954864f6a6ff20b52602b2168a0e3c.jpg

1 / 4
Britain's new Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a pugnacious debut in the House of Commons urging EU leaders to renegotiate the Brexit deal
Britain's new Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Thursday called the current Brexit deal negotiated with the EU "unacceptable" and set preparations for leaving the bloc without an agreement as a "top priority" for the government.
In a pugnacious debut in parliament, the former London mayor urged EU leaders to rethink their opposition to renegotiating the deal.
After installing a right-wing government following a radical overhaul, Johnson doubled down on his promise to lead Britain out of the EU by October 31 at any cost.
In case of a no-deal exit, he also threatened to withhold the �39 billion ($49 billion) divorce bill that Britain has previously said it owes the EU and instead spend the money for preparations for leaving with no agreement.
Johnson told a raucous session of parliament in which he was repeatedly shouted down by opposing MPs that the draft deal his predecessor Theresa May reached with the 27 EU leaders would "sign away our economic independence".
"Its terms are unacceptable to this parliament and to this country," Johnson said -- a day after purging more than half the ministers in his predecessor Theresa May's team.
"Today is the first day of a new approach, which will end with our exit from the EU on 31 October," the 55-year-old said.
- Right-wing government -
Johnson has assembled a team of social conservatives and Brexit hardliners who argue that leaving the EU after 46 years without an agreement will be less painful than economists warn.
The markets were relieved by the appointment of former Deutsche Bank Sajid Javid as finance chief.
The pound held steady against the dollar and euro as traders waited for Johnson's first policy moves.
Other appointments were more divisive.
Brexit hardliner Dominic Raab became foreign secretary and Jacob Rees-Mogg -- leader of a right-wing faction of Conservatives who helped bring about May's demise -- as the government's parliament representative.
New interior minister Priti Patel has previously expressed support for the death penalty and voted against same-sex marriage.
The Labour opposition-backing Mirror newspaper called it "Britain's most right-wing government since the 1980s".
- 'Not in the real world' -
Johnson argues that his threat of a chaotic end to Britain's EU involvement will force Brussels to relent and give London better terms that would let it pursue trade deals with powers such as China and the United States.
Brexit backers in parliament had accused May of ignoring voters' wishes by promising to keep the UK tied to the bloc's economic rules if necessary to preserve a free-flowing border between EU member Ireland and Britain's Northern Ireland.
Johnson's solution for the frontier revolves around proposals that have been rejected as either unworkable or insufficient by both EU and Irish leaders.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar -- his heavily trade-dependent nation standing to lose most from a messy EU-UK split -- bluntly told Johnson on Wednesday that he needed to compromise.
EU spokeswoman Mina Andreeva said in Brussels on Thursday that the bloc's position "remains unchanged".
"The deal we have achieved is the best deal possible," Andreeva said.
- Diplomatic dilemmas -
Johnson will have the backing of his governing Conservative party but not the nation in his first days in office.
He beat the now-former foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt by a two-to-one margin in a vote held by fewer than 160,000 paying members of the Conservatives.
But a YouGov survey found his approval rating in Britain as a whole at just 31 percent.
Even his biggest critics in London and Brussels have been willing to give Johnson a chance to try his own luck at resolving the Brexit mess.
But his problems further abroad are more immediate -- and just as challenging.
Iran's seizure last Friday of a British-flagged tanker in the Gulf thrusts Johnson into the middle of the Islamic republic's escalating standoff with US President Donald Trump.
And Trump's bid to contain China's global clout has forced Britain into an uncomfortable choice over what technology to use in its now-delayed rollout of the next-generation 5G data network.
Johnson boasts a friendship with Trump that his doubters fear will make Britain beholden to the mercurial White House chief's unpredictable foreign policies.

His supporters, however, say the relationship could boost Britain's chances of clinching a post-Brexit trade deal with the United States.
Britain's new Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a pugnacious debut in the House of Commons urging EU leaders to renegotiate the Brexit deal
Johnson reaffirmed his commitment to his cabinet to leave the EU by the twice-delayed October 31 deadline
Profile of Boris Johnson, Britain's new prime minister
New interior minister Priti Patel has previously expressed support for the death penalty and voted against same-sex marriage
 

Let’s recall the benefits of ‘No Deal’ – a WTO-based Brexit could yield the UK £80 billion per year

WTO-flag.jpg



Graham-Gudgin-head-and-shoulders-150x150.jpg

Written by
Graham Gudgin and Harry Western


Dr Graham Gudgin is an economist at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Business Research (CBR) and co-editor of Briefings for Brexit. Harry Western is a senior economist working in the private sector.


Share




Over recent weeks, there have been renewed efforts to claim that the UK leaving the EU on WTO terms will result in economic catastrophe. The general approach has been to claim huge downsides while ignoring or minimising possible upsides. We and colleagues at Briefings for Brexit have argued repeatedly that claims that UK trade and GDP will collapse in case of a move to trading with the EU on WTO terms are hugely exaggerated, being based on wildly unrealistic assumptions about productivity shifts and other factors.
Trade barriers will rise and bilateral trade volumes between the UK and EU will decline, to some extent, in a WTO scenario. But some of what will also happen is that UK exports will be diverted to the home market and other destinations, and EU imports will be displaced by UK production and imports from third countries (weaker sterling will also help this shift). Because of these offsetting shifts in sales patterns, the net effect on UK GDP of a WTO Brexit will be a small fraction of the effect on UK-EU trade. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman estimates for the US that even a 70% fall in trade would only cut GDP by 2%. Using the same approach, we estimate the likely effect on UK GDP from rising UK-EU trade barriers at just 0.5% of UK GDP. Distinguished economist Ashoka Mody suggests a similar figure, which would amount to £10.5bn. This is ten to fifteen times smaller than the effects the Treasury and Bank of England are claiming.
Meanwhile, there are a range of potential positives from a WTO-based Brexit that could outweigh these losses:
Fishing
The UK fishing industry could potentially double in size after Brexit, as the UK takes full control of a natural resource which currently is mostly harvested by EU boats. Estimates by Napier (2018) and others suggest a rise in catch of up to £700m-800m per year which with positive supply chain effects could see a total boost to output of around £3bn per year – already offsetting a third of the possible trade losses.
Ending budgetary payments to the EU
Over the last three years net contributions to the EU have totalled £10 billion per year, or around 0.5% of UK GDP. Ending these payments alone essentially cancels out the possible trade-related losses.
Abolishing the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
The CAP costs British taxpayers twice over – once through subsidies paid to farmers and twice by keeping food prices artificially high. OECD data suggests EU farm prices are around 5% above world prices and our estimates based on this data suggest UK consumers pay around £2billion per year in higher prices due to the CAP.
Cutting EU tariffs
The EU imposes high tariffs on foodstuffs and also some other areas including clothing and textiles, where applied tariffs on third-country imports are 6%-8%. UK tariff revenue from these items totals about £1bn per year but gains to consumers from the abolition of tariffs on these items could be much larger than that as domestic prices for clothing and textile products generally (not just the imported items) would likely fall. With textile and clothing spending at £82bn per year even a 3% price fall would boost consumer incomes (and potentially spending) by £2.5bn.
More broadly, the IFS has estimated that the abolition of all EU tariffs would cut consumer prices by up to 1.2%. With UK consumer spending at £1.3tn in 2017, this implies gains for consumers of up to £15bn (note tariff cuts discussed here would reduce budgetary gains by £1-3.5bn depending on how broad they were).
Reducing benefit payments to EU immigrants
A targeted immigration policy could keep the fiscal benefits accruing to the UK from high-skilled immigrants while cutting the burden associated with the lower-skilled. The Migration Advisory Committee suggests the fiscal ‘break-even’ point for EEA immigrants is a salary of around £30,000 per year while government figures suggest benefit payments to EEA nationals of around £1.6bn per year. This latter figure could be reduced to near-zero by appropriate immigration rules.
Striking trade deals with third countries
An EU assessment of the benefits of striking free trade deals with a range of third countries including the US and Asian economies suggested these could boost EU GDP by 1.2% and by up to 2% if productivity effects are allowed. For the UK alone this would represent an annual gain in GDP of £25-£40bn. But the figures could easily be higher for the UK due to the UK’s bigger trade with non-EU countries.
Increased restrictions on trade with the EU could lead to some negative effects on UK productivity, though these tend to be greatly exaggerated. But the net productivity effect if the UK opened up trade with the rest of the world would be likely to be positive given the rest of the world’s greater dynamism and higher productivity levels in e.g. North America. A recent study by the Minnesota Fed suggested reducing trade and investment barriers with the rest of the world by 5% would raise UK welfare by £25-30 billion per year even with increased restrictions on trade and investment with the EU.
Reducing regulatory burdens
The cost of EU regulations is hard to calculate but the EU’s own estimates suggest the cost to business is large, as much as 4%-6% of GDP. Removing all of this is unrealistic, but even reducing the burden by 25% would potentially yield savings of 1%-1.5% of UK GDP or £20-£30bn per year in business costs. And the positive impact on GDP could be bigger than this: The UK better regulation taskforce in 2005 reported a Danish government estimate implying that for every £1 decline in the administrative burden of regulation, GDP could rise by £2.70. Importantly, we are not talking about a regulatory ‘race to the bottom’ here – just smarter regulation better targeted at the interests of the UK economy.
wto-brexit.png

Adding all these upsides together (with appropriate netting on the budgetary side), we can easily come to a figure for net gains of around £80bn or nearly 4% of GDP, far outweighing the potential trade costs mentioned earlier of £10.6bn or 0.5% of GDP.
Now it is quite likely that not all the upsides would materialise, and also that trade costs might be higher. But even more pessimistic – but still realistic – takes on trade costs such as in the German IFO study of 2017, CEP (2017), Gudgin, Coutts et al (2017) or Ciuriak et al (2018) suggest costs of only around 1.5%-2.5% of GDP. The midpoint of these estimates is still only half of the potential upsides we have identified.
A smart WTO Brexit with well-designed trade, immigration, agricultural, fishing and regulatory policies would, far from being a ‘disaster’, have an excellent chance of delivering substantial long-term net benefits.
 
Irish 'back stop'?:cool:

Boris Johnson's Brexit policy 'unacceptable' - EU negotiator

_108037819_borisetbarnier.jpg
Michel Barnier said EU leaders needed to be ready for Mr Johnson to "heap pressure" on EU unity

Top European officials have rebuffed the Brexit policy of Boris Johnson after his first speech to UK MPs.
The new prime minister said he was committed to "getting rid" of the Irish border backstop, which has long been a bone of contention in negotiations.


The EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said removing the backstop guarantee was unacceptable.
Mr Johnson also spoke on the phone with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
Mr Juncker reiterated the EU's position that the already-negotiated withdrawal agreement was the best one possible – though he said the commission would be available over the coming weeks if the UK wanted to hold talks.


What did the prime minster say?
Boris Johnson gave his first statement in the House of Commons since becoming prime minister, and set out his position on Brexit, which he has promised to complete by 31 October.


The backstop is a key piece of the deal negotiated by his predecessor's government, dictating what will happen to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
It is a last resort that guarantees a frictionless border if no better solution is devised in time - by maintaining close ties between the UK and the EU until such a solution is found.


"No country that values its independence, and indeed its self-respect, could agree to a treaty which signed away our economic independence and self-government as this backstop does," Mr Johnson said.
Responding to questions from MPs, he said he was committed to "getting rid" of the backstop, describing it as "divisive" and "anti-democratic".
p073fg5p.jpg


"[It] poses that appalling choice to the British government and the British people - to the United Kingdom - of losing control of our trade, losing control of our regulation or else surrendering the government of the United Kingdom," he added.

How did the EU react?
After the speech, Mr Barnier sent a note to European leaders, repeating the EU's position that getting rid of the backstop was "of course unacceptable", and labelling Mr Johnson's speech "rather combative".

But he added that despite disagreements over the backstop, the EU was prepared to "work constructively, within our own mandate", and was prepared to analyse "any UK idea on withdrawal issues that are compatible with the existing withdrawal agreement".
Concerning the possibility of a no deal, he said it would not be "the EU's choice" but "we have to be ready for a situation where he [Mr Johnson] gives priority to the planning for 'no deal', partly to heap pressure on the unity of the EU27."
"In any case, what remains essential on our side is to remain calm, stick to our principles and guidelines and show solidarity and unity of the 27."
He added that he would "remain available throughout the summer for talks with the UK".

Downing Street did not respond directly to Mr Barnier's comments, but the prime minister's official spokesman said the PM would be "energetic in the pursuit" of a deal.
But he added that Theresa May's withdrawal agreement had "been rejected three times" by MPs and was "clearly not acceptable to them".
However, at a news conference in County Donegal, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said, "without the backstop there is no withdrawal agreement, there's no transition phase, there's no implementation phase, and there will be no free trade agreement until all those matters are resolved".
_108033102_albertocosta.jpg

Alberto Costa has campaigned for the rights of EU citizens in the UK to be guaranteed
Meanwhile, Mr Johnson is coming under pressure from one of his own MPs to introduce a law guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living in the UK.
The prime minister said EU citizens would have "absolute certainty" of their right to live and remain in the country.
Alberto Costa - who resigned as a parliamentary aide over the issue - welcomed the statement, but said the promise should be "underpinned by law".
 
Boris Johnson's Brexit policy 'unacceptable' - EU negotiator

The EU entity itself is unacceptable. Some other European countries are already revolting.

Once Germany and France elect anti-EU nationalist leaders, that's the end of the EU. :cool:
 

The EU entity itself is unacceptable. Some other European countries are already revolting.

Once Germany and France elect anti-EU nationalist leaders, that's the end of the EU. :cool:
I do hope the end of the EU will happen soon

 
Boris Johnson convinced his party to trade credentials for cut-through. Will Britain do the same?
Updated Wed at 5:44am
11340176-16x9-460x259.jpg
VIDEO 1:22 Boris Johnson won with the backing of 66 per cent of the Tory rank-and-file members. ABC NEWS
In his carefully dishevelled campaign for the leadership, Boris Johnson sold his party a raffish can-do man who will drag Britain from its Brexit malaise by sheer will alone.
Unabashed by his elevation to leader of a party with a 250-year history, the gaffe-prone former journalist, London mayor and foreign secretary urged the Tories to "believe in ourselves".
"Like some slumbering giant, we are going to rise and ping off the guy ropes of self-doubt and negativity," he promised.​
Just like that, he seemed to be saying, he will deliver Brexit.
Gone are the details. Billions of pounds in new trade tariffs. The risk of an economic shockwave if no miracle deal with Brussels emerges. The risk of violence should Northern Ireland again be boxed in by checkpoints.
"We're going to energise the country, we're going to get Brexit done on October 31, we're going to take advantage of all the opportunities that it will bring in a new spirit of can-do."
From the backbench, it's not been difficult to bewitch the news media with stunts, or to routinely perform a volte-face as if according to the weather (in January he called Theresa May's withdrawal agreement "a complete stinker", in February he said it was "appalling"; in March he voted for it).
Johnson's in-tray will be overflowing
11239244-3x2-460x307.jpg
PHOTO The Johnson administration's problems may be less with the White House, and more with Whitehall. PA VIA AP: BEN BIRCHALL
But with the Queen's endorsement on Wednesday, a cold reality awaits. Mr Johnson will be prime minister of a country facing its most perilous juncture since the end of World War II.
Its people are divided, its parliament impossibly fractured, and the new 77th prime minister has an overflowing in-tray.
While Mr Johnson was readying his move into No 10, the Iranian Foreign Minister was publicly insisting the British were pirates, ignoring the UK's proposal for a European-led maritime security force in the Gulf.
(It is worth noting, as the French have, that in the midst of a frothing no-deal Brexit push by many who lifted Mr Johnson into the top job, London has reflexively sought a European solution to the crisis.)
Next is Britain's liaison with Washington. Donald Trump is enthused, so maybe the problem for the incoming Johnson administration is less its relationship with the White House, and more its relationship with Whitehall.
Investigations are continuing into how it was that its outgoing ambassador to DC, Sir Kim Darroch, had his cables — which were professionally and properly jaundiced about the US President — leaked to a devoutly Brexiteer tabloid newspaper.
But it is a safe assumption the Foreign Office is watching the incoming prime minister with some trepidation.
Almost two weeks ago, Mr Johnson admitted his failure to robustly defend the ambassador had a role in the man's decision to quit.
Expensive promises, but Britain will be wary
11208292-3x2-460x307.jpg
PHOTO Mr Johnson's previous profligacy as London's mayor undermines his credibility on spending. AP: KIRSTY WIGGLESWORTH
The new prime minister has pledged tangible improvements under his leadership: high-speed broadband, income tax cuts, and curing the country's knife crime epidemic with a bunch more coppers.
None of it comes cheap. His pledge to reverse education spending cuts will be among these promises, sitting there on his desk at No 10, waiting for him. The schools policy alone will cost the budget almost 5 billion pounds ($8.9 billion) per year.
Mr Johnson's credibility on such matters comes after an eight-year reign as London's mayor marked by profligacy which ran into the tens of millions of pounds.
And yet, the result in the bag, Mr Johnson couldn't help but flourish at the podium one more time: "Better education, better infrastructure, more police, fantastic full-fibre broadband sprouting in every household!"
The party may have chosen not to be, but Britain will be wary of the promises. Mr Johnson's association with the truth has been famously problematic.
He was sacked by The Times in 1988 for fabricating a quote in a page one story.
He was sacked again as a shadow minister for lying about an extramarital affair. And he repeatedly made false entries on his parliamentary interests register. It was "a pattern of behaviour", according to the standards office, which demonstrated a "lack of respect".
He's being compared to Donald Trump, not least by Mr Trump himself. Mr Trump's a much more impressive liar, of course. As of June 10, the Washington Post's running tally of his untruths ran to 10,796 in just 869 days.
But the Conservative Party has decided to stomach Mr Johnson's rakish character, and his questionable administrative credentials, because he has the same magic quality as his counterpart in Washington — the cut-through.
As Mr Johnson knuckles down to the running of the country, however, the question will quickly become whether the rest of Britain is happy to make the same compromise.
Posted Wed at 4:42am
 
No-deal Brexit risk may have already pushed UK into recession, says NIESR



Richard Partington

3 days ago














World's 25 most valuable brands




These normal-looking homes hide unbelievable interiors

AAEHaRc.img
© AFP/Getty Images BMW’s Mini production line at Cowley in Oxfordshire was closed during April to prepare for an expected no-deal Brexit.
The mounting risk of no-deal Brexit may have pushed the UK economy into a recession already, one of the country’s foremost economic forecasters has warned.
Sounding the alarm before the expected elevation of Boris Johnson to Downing Street this week, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said there was a one in four chance the country is in a recession currently.


Against a backdrop of renewed uncertainty and the increasing likelihood of no-deal Brexit under a Johnson premiership, growth has stalled in recent months, business investment has faltered and the pound has fallen sharply.
Some economists believe the UK economy contracted in the three months to June, marking the first negative quarter in seven years, as a consequence of factory closures planned to avert any potential disruption around the original 29 March Brexit deadline. Official growth figures for the second quarter are due to be published next month.
Economists consider two consecutive quarters of economic contraction a recession. NIESR forecasts GDP fell by 0.1% in the second quarter, with a 25% chance that GDP declines again in the third quarter between July and September. However, the thinktank’s central forecast is for growth of 0.2% in the third quarter.
“The short-term outlook for the UK economy is very murky indeed, with a significant risk that a severe economic downturn will begin within the next six months,” NIESR said.
Warning the risk of leaving without a deal was rising with less than six months left before the next prime minister runs out of time to renegotiate a deal with Brussels, NIESR said the country risked an even more severe downturn in the autumn. It said economic growth over the long run could be damaged by about 5% a year.
Jagjit Chadha, director of the thinktank, which is Britain’s longest-established independent research institute, said a no-deal Brexit would in effect “throw concrete” in the wheels of British trade with the EU at a moment when the UK is already “fragile and vulnerable” from a slowdown in growth.
“However we look at it, there will not be much economic joy in such an exit,” he added.
Alongside domestic uncertainty, growth in the world economy has deteriorated over recent months against a backdrop of rising trade tensions between the US and China, harming business confidence and serving as a brake on growth.
NIESR cut its forecasts for economic growth in 2019 and 2020 to 1.2% and 1.1%, down from 1.4% and 1.6% previously, as a result of the loss of momentum. However, it still said its forecasts were based on the next prime minister securing a deal with Brussels this autumn.
Acknowledging that the UK crashing out without a deal on 31 October was becoming increasingly likely, the thinktank warned that the pound could plunge by about 10% against the US dollar to about $1.10. Inflation would then likely surge to about 4% as the price of importing goods to Britain rises, the highest level in almost eight years and more than double the Bank of England’s target of 2%.
It said Threadneedle Street could cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 0.25% and the Treasury could ramp up spending to offset the hit to the economy, enabling growth to remain at zero next year under such a scenario.
However, given the wide degree of uncertainty over the exact impact a no-deal Brexit would have on the UK, it said the outcome could be much worse – with a 30% chance of recession next year.
“There is no palpable growth for some years to come following a no-deal Brexit,” Chadha said.
The thinktank’s forecast for a no-deal scenario where the UK escapes recession next year could embolden Brexiters. However, it said public borrowing would rise sharply, breaking the Conservatives’ deficit reduction promises.
Public borrowing as a percentage of GDP could balloon from the current level of 1.2% of GDP to about 3.8% by 2022 under such a scenario. The Tories have pledged to keep borrowing below 2% by that time.
 
British PM Johnson eyes key appointment: A Downing Street dog
static.reuters.jpg

Larry the cat walks outside Downing Street in London, Britain, Jul 24, 2019. (Photo: Reuters/Henry Nicholls)

LONDON: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suggested getting a dog for his Downing Street office to join current resident Larry the Cat.
Johnson took office earlier this week, walking through the black front door of Number 10 Downing Street for the first time after setting out a desire to defy his critics over Brexit and bring a decisive new leadership style to Britain's top job.

During an address to staff he asked whether they would like a dog, a source with knowledge of the meeting said on Friday (Jul 26).
The staff replied with an enthusiastic "Yes".
Downing Street, the nerve centre of British government for nearly 300 years, is already home to a brown and white tabby cat who carries the official title "Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office".

Appointed in 2011, Larry has outlasted two former prime ministers: David Cameron and Theresa May.
He has become a celebrity in his own right, with an unofficial Twitter account which uses some of the thousands of pictures taken by press photographers documenting his comings, goings, and territorial scraps with other departmental cats.

The source said no firm decisions on a dog had been taken and declined to comment on possible living arrangements alongside Larry.
"You can consider it a longer-term project," the source said.
Larry appears to be taking the news in his stride. He was seen lying on a window ledge in Downing Street for most of the morning, according to a Reuters witness.

Source: Reuters/zl
 
Back
Top