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特朗普下令打伊朗为何又撤回：空袭占领美军都做不到
特朗普下令打伊朗为何又撤回：空袭占领美军都做不到
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来源：瞭望智库
美国最近的军事动作，其实只能解释为——吓！唬！人！
文 | 千里岩
编辑 | 李雪 瞭望智库
本文为瞭望智库原创文章，如需转载请在文前注明来源瞭望智库（zhczyj）及作者信息，否则将严格追究法律责任。
最近，海湾地区局势不断紧张，伊朗跟美国的对峙愈演愈烈——美国不断向海湾地区增派兵力和部署航母打击编队以及轰炸机。
6月20日，一名美国官员告诉全美广播公司（ABC），一架美国海军MQ-4C “特里冬”无人机周四在霍尔木兹海峡上空的国际空域飞行时，被一枚伊朗地对空导弹击落。
据美国《纽约时报》的报道，在伊朗击落美军无人机后，美国总统特朗普批准了对伊朗发动军事打击，但是在周四晚上又撤回了打击伊朗目标的命令。
战争，似乎一触即发。
此前，据路透社报道，在美国宣布再次增兵中东的后一天，鲁哈尼在演讲中表示，“伊朗不会对任何国家发动战争，我们所面对的那些人是一群经验不足的政客。”
“尽管美国人在本地区做出很多努力，他们希望切断我们（伊朗）与世界的联系，他们希望伊朗被隔绝，但他们并没有成功。”
面对巨大压力，鲁哈尼这番话并不是强作镇定。
嘴仗打得欢，没人真动手
要细究这次海湾紧张局势的起源，很简单，在于美国发动的极限制裁造成伊朗重要的经济支柱——石油出口严重受阻。
为此，伊朗扬言，必要时会封锁作为世界上最重要能源通道的霍尔木兹海峡——干脆切断全球将近30%的原油市场供应。
如果伊朗真的这么做了，将会带来严重的后果。
时至今日，在石油供应方面，美国确实可以做到自给自足之外还有余力出口一些。但是，要说美国的剩余原油产能或者其他美国产油盟国增加的产量可以迅速填补这块空缺，那就是忽悠人了。
所以，一旦伊朗真的孤注一掷封锁霍尔木兹，后果有两个可能：
其一，顶不住能源危机的美国-盟国阵营出现瓦解，若此，美国的极限制裁将彻底落空，其霸权也必然会遭受重创；
其二，为树立威信和保护自己及盟友的利益，美国再次领衔发动一场对伊朗的战争。
伊朗看得很清楚，由于两国间存在的巨大军力乃至国力差距，一旦开战，极有可能导致现政权的倾覆。因此，即便经历了美国大约一个半月的极限制裁，伊朗也没有在海湾地区采取什么实质性动作，而是把更多精力放在解决当下难题上——如何通过美国控制不住的领域卖石油。
不过，正所谓“树欲静而风不止”，这段时间里，海湾地区连续发生了油轮遭遇袭击事件。就在外界纷纷猜测事件究竟系何方所为之时，事情变得吊诡起来。
美国政府公布了一段来自军方的视频，据此指责伊朗发动了此类袭击；当时还在代理国防部长的沙纳汉又派了一千大兵去海湾地区，说要防备打起来；接下来，画风一转，日本首相安倍晋三去访问伊朗，并且带话说“美国想谈判，没有打算真的推翻伊朗现政权”……
而曾扬言真要这么干的伊朗，却第一时间站出来坚决否认自己跟油轮被袭击有任何牵扯。等到安倍晋三风尘仆仆地带来特朗普的口信，伊朗又当场表示坚决不肯跟美国谈。
以拖待变，对伊朗更有好处
事情为啥会变成这样？
道理不难理解，一个打不起，一个不敢动。这就造成现在的局面：不管是否乐意，双方就这么耗着。
从眼下的状况来看，以拖待变对于伊朗来说是相对有利的。
伊朗不但有俄罗斯帮着卖油，土耳其等国打算继续买油，还可以去传说中的“灰色市场”卖油——尽管存在各种不方便，而且销量无论如何不会赶上光明正大地在国际市场上销售，但是毕竟也能保住相当一部分外汇来源，以解燃眉之急。
还有一点很重要，石油虽然是伊朗的支柱产业，但并非唯一的支柱，伊朗跟那些海湾阿拉伯国家不同，至少可以最低程度地实现工业品的自给自足。
具备这两个条件，伊朗可以支撑很久很久。
而要是这种对峙持续下去，在伊朗苦熬的同时，美国的日子一样不好过。
若就这么旷日持久的耗着，伊朗必然会越来越多地避开美元结算，当前那些怕了美国、暂时不敢买伊朗石油的国家如果看到伊朗开辟“新路”，未必不会跟风再来买油，毕竟石油是“刚需”。这就决定了石油美元的挂钩关系会不断松动。
假使伊朗玩得“狠”一点，一看见欧佩克拼命增产压低油价就在海湾搞点紧张气氛，保管一把拉高油价；等到油价高企之时，按兵不动坐看美国再去压欧佩克成员增产压价，时机差不多时候再来一把……
如此反复折腾几轮，那些听美国话的欧佩克成员必定流汗又流血。到那时，美国就是想通过沙特去操纵欧佩克必然也会越来越不顺手。
干脆动手开打？
美国只要还有点理性就不会这么干。
前车之鉴，战争留下的“巨坑”
我们回顾下两次海湾战争就可窥见一斑。
差不多三十年前的第一次海湾战争，美军出动千架作战飞机、247艘战舰（航空母舰8艘），向海湾地区运送2000辆坦克、各类装甲车辆5600辆，大约40万人。
整个过程耗时5个半月，花费611亿美元，另外还从其他国家拿到了530亿美元的资金支持。
美国的盟友们一共也出动了20万人左右，1700辆坦克，三个航母战斗群和几百架飞机。
经过一多月的空袭之后，加上短短一百小时地面战斗，伊拉克就一败涂地了。
战争赢了，美国的世界霸权似乎巩固了，但是，由于国内经济很不给力，于是，老布什成了美国历史上罕见的竞选连任失败总统案例。
2003年的第二次海湾战争，美国的欧洲盟友们多数都不赞成，只有死抱着“美英特殊关系”的英国“出了血”，并且派出了唯一的航母战斗群。
美军的基本作战模式差不多，大约30万人的美军部队和约45000人的英军部队、2000人的澳大利亚军队和200人的波兰军队，在7个航母战斗群，6个两栖作战群和一千多架飞机的支持下，打了43天。
在43天的大规模交战中，美军平均每天花掉9亿美元。更醒目的是，在随后8年多的治安战里，美军除了付出近万人阵亡、几万人受伤致残的代价之外，留下了3万亿美元的军费巨坑！
小布什登上总统宝座时，美国国债大约7万亿，他离任的时候已经超过14万亿！足见此坑之深。
因此，伊拉克战争被很多人视为“美国盛极而衰的转折点”。
看看目前美国政府的财政赤字，从特朗普的角度考虑，如果打伊朗，即便打赢了战争，总统下台也是个大概率事件。对于一个政客而言这无异于自招灭顶之灾。
空袭和占领，美军都做不到
况且，伊朗不是伊拉克。
回顾两伊战争，伊拉克在最强的时候，加上所有阿拉伯国家帮忙、美苏拉偏架，结果还是没有打过国内刚刚革命完、一切都乱糟糟的伊朗。如果美国现在要杀进伊朗去，怎么也得准备付出一个“伊拉克战争+阿富汗战争”之和的代价。
我们先来说说空袭。
沙特、卡塔尔、阿联酋和巴林这几个海湾国家的机场设施足够支撑起来美军动用上千架飞机的规模，但是，伊朗国土面积比伊拉克大3倍，地理位置决定了美军要发动空袭不可能像当年对待伊拉克那样从南北西三线进行，只能完全从波斯湾方向开始，最多偶尔利用一下伊拉克领空。
别人（尤其还是曾经的敌人）的领空用多了必然会惹出点麻烦——尽管伊拉克现在成不了气候，要给美国使点小绊子还是不难做到的。要知道，伊拉克现在基本上成了什叶派国家，伊朗在这里的朋友很多。
所以，伊朗的防空压力显然小得多，只需要重点关注南向就好。其防空力量大致也说得过去，除了新买一批俄罗斯的S300之外，还自己动手“山寨”了一大堆东西方各国的防空导弹。
加之，上文提到，伊朗是一个工业化国家，不像萨达姆手里只有凑合拼接的飞毛腿，那几千枚地对地导弹，别说周围海湾国家受不了，就是以色列都得掂量掂量。再加上，美军在中东的基地都在伊朗的导弹射程之内。
那么，一开战就把伊朗的导弹都干掉如何？
没可能。对付伊拉克的导弹，美国都没能做到一时赶尽杀绝，更何况比伊拉克国土面积大了好几倍、境内到处是山的伊朗高原地形呢？
再来讨论下占领的事。
打仗，第一是歼灭对方有生力量，第二就是要控制战场。如果控制不住战场，对方能够乱跑，显然很难彻底歼灭。就凭美国现在自身在海湾的兵力那也是远远不够的。
参考伊拉克战争的规模，美军动用了自己半数以上的陆军，在伊朗如果想做到这一点恐怕除了动用全数陆军之外，还得继续将国民警卫队转入现役才可以。根本无法实现。
先不管防区，只袭击伊朗沿海如何？
不成。炸完了不去占领，伊朗就是靠着挖地道也能把反舰导弹这种东西拖到霍尔木兹海峡岸边，这对于一条最窄只有几十公里宽的海峡来说可是要命了。美国那么做的结果就是把伊拉克战争搬到了海上而已，最后还是受不了。
只占领伊朗沿海地区，不让他们发射反舰导弹封锁海峡如何？
也办不到，只要美国兵踏上伊朗的土地，就成了袭击目标，伊朗人不会坐视不理，最后战争会全方位铺开。
一起上？兄弟们好像不同意
有人以为美国军事压力会导致伊朗内部分裂，达到“不战屈人之兵”的效果，或者好像伊拉克战争那种，枪炮一响，军队主动散架。
伊朗自然也存在国内矛盾，然而，延续千年的波斯民族凝聚力、地广人多的国情和工业化水平决定了这个国家的韧性相当强大，远胜当年靠萨达姆铁腕才能遏制分裂的伊拉克。
并且，美国真的开打伊朗，以色列肯定跑不了，哈马斯、真主党这些伊朗的“小弟”还会再次出力，也门胡塞也不会闲着。甚至沙特和巴林家里的什叶派会不会也收到一批枪杆子、一笔笔款子，就此起来造反，也很难说。
到了那个时候，美国该怎么安抚这些盟友呢？
这些情况大家看得都很清楚，所以，到现在为止，除了以色列，我们看不出来哪个国家可能旗帜鲜明地支持美国对伊朗动手，欧洲国家连边都不愿意沾。
这不，前几天西班牙就明确召回了自己那条本来正在跟美军航母编队演习的小护卫舰。就连与美国关系特殊的英国也始终一声不吭。
看来，这次既不会有人给美国报销那么大笔的军费开支，也不会有人出手帮忙。
以色列心里也苦。最近跟哈马斯的大战，乍看上去，几百枚火箭弹造成的人员伤亡似乎不大，但是，以色列的社会生活受到很大影响。
就算以色列的铁穹拦截系统当挡住了部分火箭弹，考虑一下铁穹的拦截成本，如果继续打下去，腰包也会瘪下去。
要不然，以色列看着强悍的各种空袭反击，怎么还肯答应停火了呢？因为打不起啊。
全面打垮伊朗的兵力不够，局部占领和单纯空袭都不可取，外援还少得可怜。在这种情况下，美国会动手么？
看这架势，美国根本没想打仗
要进行战争的困难如此之多，以至于美国可能根本就没准备打仗。
退一步讲，就算现在科技进步了，美军的察打一体能力翻番，要想对付伊朗最少也得有伊拉克战争的规模。
如果想对伊朗发起攻击，必须有足够的两栖作战部队。在伊拉克战争中，美军动用了两个陆战远征队，面对海岸线长度大了百倍左右的伊朗，又没有可能当做陆军出发阵地的伊朗邻国，美军至少要动用同样规模的两栖作战部队作为打头阵的兵力才够用。
可是，现在美军不过去了3条航母、一个两栖作战群，容纳的兵力甚至装不下半个陆战远征队，空军算上原先就在海湾地区的也不到伊拉克战争的零头。
另外，能打头阵、打硬仗的主力部队（如打伊拉克战争时的101师和82师）也没来，就连抽组调集的动作都没做。
只是一千人、一千人地派兵，等到凑齐几十万兵力，估计需要等很久很久……
至于说单纯搞空袭，可能性就更低了——B52这种飞机真的要打仗去什么卡塔尔啊，正常应该躲在迪戈加西亚，轰阿富汗都从这里出发，炸个伊朗肯定飞得到。
在卡塔尔部署B52才真的危险，因为伊朗不是被制裁围困了十多年的萨达姆，手里有那么多地对地导弹呢，真够得着这里。
这时候发生了袭击油轮事件，不管是谁干的，美国肯定压把帽子往伊朗脑袋上扣。
一则，美国不想让欧盟为此跟自己离心离德，如果真的闹到了欧盟建立绕开美国制裁的机制，那简直是的麻烦。
若久拖下去，美国增派的驻军费用显然令人很不愉快，让伊朗熬过苦日子更是无疑对美国权威又一次沉重的打击。这对于即将面临选举的特朗普来说，可不是什么令人高兴的局面。
二则，把帽子扣在伊朗脑袋上，让大家觉得伊朗“犯浑”，这样，美国要求伊朗交出核能力及弹道导弹能力和极限制裁似乎就有了点顺理成章的味道了。
至于警告民航，其实就是提前甩锅而已。两伊战争时，美国拉偏架帮伊拉克，结果宙斯盾巡洋舰“文森斯”号愣是分不清F14战斗机和空中客车，发射两枚导弹将其击落，一下子造成将近300名伊朗平民丧生。当年美国牛气冲天，不道歉不赔偿，甚至不惩办肇事舰长，如今要是出这事可真不好说了。
总而言之，美国最近的军事动作，其实只能解释为吓唬人！看着中东一团乱，但是其实可能谁都不想动手。
未来“好戏”应该还会有，各位买好瓜、准备好小板凳等着就好。
点击进入专题：
美军一架无人机被伊朗击落
https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/jssd/2019-06-22/doc-ihytcerk8576235.shtml
美在中东兵力不足不会对伊开战 但不排除小规模空袭
美在中东兵力不足不会对伊开战 但不排除小规模空袭
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美国海军目前在海湾只有林肯号航母编队
6月20日，伊朗击落1架美国全球鹰无人侦察机，随后有消息说美军准备报复，飞机已经升空，但是美国总统临阵下令中止进攻，让外界长舒一口气。
不过也有人担心，现在可能是更大暴雨来临之前的平静。美国没有对伊朗报复，
也有可能是美军在中东兵力不足，高层对报复程度多大意见也没有统一，不排除增兵、意见统一之后再动手。
部署在中东的F-35A战斗机
美国空军又增加了一个F-15E战斗轰炸机中队
从海外资料来看，美国海军在中东只有林肯号航母编队执行前沿部署任务，林肯号航空母舰配备48架超级大黄蜂战斗机，护航舰艇搭载有200枚以上战斧巡航导弹。另外空军在中东地区部署有1个F-35A战斗机中队、1个F-15E战斗轰炸机中队和1个B-52轰炸机特遣队。作战飞机大约50架左右。这样实力只能对伊朗发动一次外科手术式打击，难以执行大规模打击任务。
伊朗空军全家福，只能用廉颇老矣来形容
伊朗空军方面拥有50架F-14、28架米格-29、20架F-4E和20架F-5E战斗机，这些战斗机虽然已经陈旧，别说对付F-35A这样隐身战斗机，就是面对超级大黄蜂都力不从心。因此伊朗主要还是依靠防空系统。伊朗防空系统以俄罗斯防空导弹为主力，包括SA-6、SA-5以及最新的SA-10、SA-15、SA-22防空导弹等等。此外伊朗还拥有大量巴列维时代引进的美制防空导弹，例如鹰式、标准防空导弹等等，这些导弹已经实现了国产化。上世纪80年代伊朗也从中国引进了红旗2防空导弹，并且引进技术自行生产。另外伊朗还有大量高炮用作辅助防空武器。进入新世纪，伊朗在防空系统一体化方面取得了长足进展，研制成功防空自动化指挥系统，实现了战术信息共享、综合防空，整体防空作战能力得到有效提高。不过伊朗大多数防空导弹技术比较陈旧，新式防空导弹如SA-10、SA-15、SA-22数量不多，只能部署在重点目标附近，此前曾经有消息，伊朗已经将SA-10防空导弹调往南部，应该就是为了防止美国可能的空袭行动。
伊朗装备的S-300PMU-2（SA-10）防空导弹
据说伊朗自己也研制了一型防空导弹，性能相当于早期型SA-10防空导弹
从总体上来讲，伊朗显然无法抵御美国高强度、持续大规模空袭，但是抗击小规模空中打击还是可能的。所以美国现在对伊朗发动小规模空中打击，最新消息说美军计划对伊朗三个目标进行打击，只能算一次示威行动，对于伊朗造成损失可能非常轻微，只能起到象征作用。还有一点非常重要，那就是美国空军在中东的隐身飞机数量不足，短时期内难以全面压制伊朗防空体系，在没有压制伊朗防空体系情况下，美军恐怕不太愿意让超级大黄蜂、F-15E这样非隐身战斗机进入伊朗作战，因此极有可能造成战损，利比亚战争之中就有1架F-15E被击落，要知道利比亚防空系统比伊朗要薄弱的多。飞机战损事小，如果引起人员伤亡，后果就是美国高层可能不得不扩大对伊动武规模，这样就成了越南战争翻版，不断加码，最终陷入泥沼不能自拔。
对于美国总统特朗普来说，2020年大选在即，这个时候发动战争，可能会付出巨大政治代价。毕竟美国社会伊拉克战争后遗症还没有完全消除，非常容易授人以柄。因此接下来海湾局势就看美国内部如何博弈，
外界一般认为不排除美国可能发动一次沙漠之狐这样的中小规模空袭行动，或者在海上发动一次类似于上世纪80年代螳螂行动那样的中小规模海上突袭行动，但是再来一次海湾战争或者伊拉克战争这样的局部战争可能性应该不高。（作者署名L小飞猪观察）
Trump ordered why Iran was withdrawn: air strikes and occupation of the US military could not
Trump ordered why Iran was withdrawn: air strikes and occupation of the US military could not
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Source: 瞭望智库
The recent military action in the United States can only be explained as - scare! fool! people!
Text | Qianliyan
Edit | Li Xue
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Recently, the situation in the Gulf region has been constantly strained, and Iran’s confrontation with the United States has intensified. The United States has continued to send more troops to the Gulf region and deploy aircraft carrier strike formations and bombers.
On June 20, a US official told the National Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that a US Navy MQ-4C "Terry Winter" drone was being used for an international airspace flight over the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Iranian surface-to-air missiles were shot down.
According to the US "New York Times" report, after Iran shot down the U.S. drone, U.S. President Trump approved a military strike against Iran, but on Thursday night he withdrew his order to fight Iran.
The war seems to be on the verge.
Earlier, according to Reuters, the day after the United States announced that it would once again increase its presence in the Middle East, Rohani said in his speech that "Iran will not wage war against any country. The people we face are a group of inexperienced politicians."
"Although Americans have made a lot of efforts in the region, they want to cut off our (Iran) connection with the world. They want Iran to be isolated, but they have not succeeded."
In the face of tremendous pressure, Rohani’s remarks were not forced to calm down.
The mouth is playing well, no one really hands
It is very simple to study the origins of the tension in the Gulf. The extreme sanctions imposed by the United States have caused Iran’s important economic pillar, oil exports, to be severely hampered.
To this end, Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important energy channel, when necessary – simply cutting off nearly 30% of the global crude oil market.
If Iran does this, it will have serious consequences.
Today, in terms of oil supply, the United States can indeed be self-sufficient and have some spare power to export. However, to say that the remaining US crude oil production capacity or the increased output of other US oil-producing allies can quickly fill this vacancy, that is, flickering people.
So, once Iran is really desperate to block Hormuz, there are two possibilities:
First, the US-Allies camp, which can't stand the energy crisis, collapsed. If this is the case, the US's extreme sanctions will be completely defeated, and its hegemony will inevitably be hit hard;
Second, in order to establish prestige and protect the interests of themselves and their allies, the United States once again led a war against Iran.
Iran can see very clearly that due to the huge military power and even the national power gap between the two countries, once the war begins, it is very likely to lead to the overthrow of the current regime. Therefore, even after experiencing the US-about one-and-a-half-month limit sanctions, Iran has not taken any substantive actions in the Gulf region, but has focused more on solving the current problem—how to sell oil through areas that the United States cannot control.
However, as the saying goes, "the tree wants to be quiet and the wind does not stop." During this time, oil tankers have been attacked in the Gulf region. Things have become condolences as the outside world has speculated about what the incident was.
The US government released a video from the military, accusing Iran of launching such attacks. At the time, Shanahan, who was also acting as the defense minister, sent another thousand soldiers to the Gulf area, saying that they should be prepared to fight; next, As the style of the painting turned, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe went to visit Iran and said that "the United States wants to negotiate, there is no intention to really overthrow the current regime in Iran"...
Iran, which once threatened to do so, stood up for the first time and firmly denied that it had any involvement with the tanker attack. When Abe’s murderous murder brought Trump’s message, Iran again said on the spot that he would not talk to the United States.
It’s better for Iran to delay
Things will be like this?
The reason is not difficult to understand, one can't afford it, one doesn't dare to move. This creates the current situation: whether it is willing or not, the two sides are so consumed.
Judging from the current situation, it is relatively advantageous for Iran to delay the change.
Iran not only has Russia helping to sell oil, Turkey and other countries intend to continue to buy oil, but also can go to the legendary "grey market" to sell oil - despite the inconvenience, and sales will not catch up with the bright international It is sold in the market, but after all, it can also save a considerable amount of foreign exchange sources to solve the urgent need.
It is also important that although oil is a pillar industry of Iran, it is not the only pillar. Iran is different from those of the Gulf Arab countries in at least minimizing the self-sufficiency of industrial products.
With these two conditions, Iran can support it for a long time.
And if this confrontation continues, while the Iran is bitter, the days of the United States are just as bad.
If such a long-lasting consumption, Iran will inevitably avoid more and more dollar settlements. Those countries that are afraid of the United States and temporarily do not dare to buy Iranian oil may not follow suit if they see Iran opening up a "new road." Buy oil, after all, oil is "just needed." This determines that the peg relationship of the oil dollar will continue to loosen.
If Iran is to play a "squeaky" point, once it sees OPEC desperately increasing production and lowering the price of oil, it will create a tense atmosphere in the Gulf and keep a high price of oil. When the oil price is high, it will take a look at the United States and then press the OPEC members to increase production and pressure. I will come back almost at once...
After so many rounds of tossing, those OPEC members who listened to the American language must sweat and bleed. At that time, the United States wants to manipulate OPEC through Saudi Arabia, and it will become increasingly unsatisfactory.
Just start playing?
The United States will not do this as long as there is still some rationality.
The foresight of the car, the "giant pit" left by the war
We can look back at the next two Gulf Wars.
In the first Gulf War almost 30 years ago, the US military dispatched thousands of combat aircraft, 247 warships (eight aircraft carriers), and transported 2,000 tanks and 5,600 armored vehicles to the Gulf region, about 400,000.
The entire process took five and a half months, costing $61.1 billion, and received $53 billion in funding from other countries.
The US allies have also dispatched about 200,000 people, 1,700 tanks, three aircraft carrier battle groups and hundreds of aircraft.
After more than a month of air strikes and a short battle of 100 hours, Iraq was defeated.
The war won, and the world hegemony of the United States seems to have consolidated. However, because the domestic economy is not very strong, Bush has become a rare case of presidential defeat in the history of the United States.
In the second Gulf War of 2003, most of the European allies of the United States did not agree. Only the United Kingdom, which had a special relationship with the United States and Britain, "had blood" and sent the only carrier battle group.
The basic operational mode of the US military is similar. About 300,000 US troops and about 45,000 British troops, 2,000 Australian troops and 200 Polish troops, in 7 aircraft carrier battle groups, 6 amphibious operations and more than 1,000 With the support of the plane, it took 43 days.
In the 43-day large-scale battle, the US military spent an average of 900 million US dollars a day. More strikingly, in the security war that followed more than eight years, in addition to the cost of nearly 10,000 people killed and tens of thousands of people injured and disabled, the US military left a $3 trillion military catastrophe!
When Bush was on the throne of the president, the US Treasury bonds were about 7 trillion yuan, and when he left, he had already exceeded 14 trillion! See the depth of this pit.
Therefore, the Iraq war is regarded by many as "the turning point of the US's gloom."
Looking at the current US government's fiscal deficit, from the perspective of Trump, if you fight Iran, even if you win the war, the president's step down is also a high probability event. For a politician, this is tantamount to self-inflicted disasters.
Air strikes and occupation, the US military can not do
Moreover, Iran is not Iraq.
Looking back at the Iran-Iraq war, when Iraq was at its strongest time, plus all the Arab countries to help, and the United States and the Soviet Union were biased, the result was that they had not beaten Iran, which had just completed a revolution in the country and everything was in a mess. If the United States wants to go to Iran now, how can it be prepared to pay the price of a "Iraq war + Afghanistan war"?
Let's talk about air strikes first.
The airport facilities of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are enough to support the size of the US military's use of thousands of aircraft. However, Iran's land area is three times larger than that of Iraq. The geographical location determines that the US military must launch an air strike. From the north, south, west and west lines, as in the case of Iraq, it can only start entirely in the direction of the Persian Gulf, and at most occasionally use Iraq’s airspace.
The use of airspace by others (especially or former enemies) will inevitably cause some trouble. Even though Iraq is not a climate now, it is not difficult to make a small scorpion to the United States. You know, Iraq is now basically a Shiite country, and Iran has many friends here.
Therefore, Iran’s air defense pressure is obviously much smaller, and it is only necessary to focus on the south direction. Its air defense power is also quite plausible. In addition to the new purchase of a group of Russian S300s, it also has a "cottage" of a large number of anti-aircraft missiles from various countries.
In addition, as mentioned above, Iran is an industrialized country. Unlike Saddam’s only splicing Scuds, thousands of ground-to-ground missiles, not to mention the surrounding Gulf countries, can’t be measured by Israel. In addition, the base of the US military in the Middle East is within the missile range of Iran.
So, how about killing Iranian missiles in a war?
no way. In response to Iraq’s missiles, the United States has not been able to kill it all the time. What is more, it is several times larger than the land area of Iraq, and the territory is full of Iranian plateau terrain?
Let's talk about the occupation.
Fighting, the first is to annihilate each other's strength, and the second is to control the battlefield. If you can't control the battlefield, the other party can run around, obviously it is difficult to completely annihilate. It is not enough to rely on the strength of the United States itself in the Gulf.
Referring to the scale of the Iraq war, the US military has used more than half of its own army. If you want to do this in Iran, I am afraid that in addition to using all the army, you must continue to transfer the National Guard to active service. It is impossible to achieve.
Regardless of the zone, what about attacking the Iranian coast?
No. After the bombing was completed, Iran could drag the anti-ship missiles to the shore of the Strait of Hormuz by dig tunnels. This is a fatality for a strait that is only a few tens of kilometers wide. The result of the United States’s doing this was to move the Iraq war to the sea, and finally it could not stand it.
How can we only occupy the coastal areas of Iran and prevent them from launching anti-ship missiles to block the strait?
It can't be done. As long as the US troops set foot on Iranian land, they will become targets of attack. The Iranians will not sit idly by and the war will be rolled out in all directions.
Go together? The brothers seem to disagree
Some people think that US military pressure will lead to internal divisions in Iran, and the effect of "not fighting against the people", or like the Iraq war, when the guns rang, the army took the initiative to fall apart.
There are also domestic contradictions in Iran. However, the Persian national cohesion, the vastness of the country and the level of industrialization that have lasted for a thousand years have determined that the country’s resilience is quite strong, far surpassing that of Saddam’s iron fist to contain the split Iraq.
Moreover, the United States is really playing Iran, and Israel will certainly not be able to run. The Iranian "little brothers" such as Hamas and Hezbollah will once again contribute, and Yemen will not be idle. Even the Shiites in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain’s homes will receive a number of guns and pens, and it’s hard to say that they will rebel.
At that time, how should the United States appease these allies?
Everyone can see these things very clearly. So, until now, apart from Israel, we can’t see which country may support the United States to Iran in a clear-cut manner. European countries are not willing to touch.
This is not the case. A few days ago, Spain clearly recalled its small frigate that was originally engaged in a US aircraft carrier formation exercise. Even the United Kingdom, which has a special relationship with the United States, has always been silent.
It seems that this time, no one will reimburse the United States for such a large military expenditure, and no one will help.
Israel is also suffering in the heart. In the recent war with Hamas, it seems that the casualties caused by hundreds of rockets do not seem to be large, but the social life of Israel is greatly affected.
Even if Israel's shovel interception system blocks some of the rockets, consider the cost of intercepting the shovel. If you continue to fight, the pockets will go down.
Otherwise, Israel looked at the powerful air raids and counterattacks. How could it promise to stop the fire? Because I can't afford it.
The full-scale war on Iran is not enough. Local occupation and simple air strikes are not desirable, and foreign aid is still pitiful. In this case, will the United States start?
Looking at this posture, the United States did not want to fight at all.
There are so many difficulties in going to war, so that the United States may not be ready to fight at all.
To take a step back, even if the technology advances, the ability of the US military to double its inspection and integration will have to be at least the size of the Iraq war.
If you want to attack Iran, you must have enough amphibious combat troops. In the Iraq war, the US military used two land expeditions. In the face of Iran, which is about a hundred times longer than the coastline, there is no Iranian neighbor that may be used as the starting position of the army. The US military must at least use the same-scale amphibious combat troops as the leader. The strength is enough.
However, now the US military has not passed three aircraft carriers, an amphibious warfare group, and the troops that can be accommodated can not even hold half of the land expeditionary team. The Air Force has not counted the fraction of the Iraq war in the Gulf region.
In addition, the main force that can make a head start and fight hard (such as the 101st and 82nd divisions in the Iraq War) did not come, even the action of the group mobilization did not.
It’s just a thousand people and a thousand people sending troops. When it comes to collecting hundreds of thousands of troops, it is estimated that it will take a long time...
As for the simple air raid, the possibility is even lower. The B52 plane is really going to fight Qatar. Normally, it should be hiding in Diego Garcia. The bombing of Afghanistan will start from here, and the bombing of Iran will definitely fly.
It is really dangerous to deploy B52 in Qatar, because Iran is not Saddam Hussein who has been under siege for more than a decade. He has so many ground-to-ground missiles in his hand.
At this time, there was an attack on the tanker. No matter who did it, the United States must press the hat on the Iranian head.
One, the United States does not want the EU to eclipse itself with this. If it really happens to the EU to establish a mechanism to bypass US sanctions, it is simply a problem.
If it is dragged on for a long time, the cost of the additional troops stationed by the United States is obviously very unpleasant. It is undoubtedly another heavy blow to the authority of the United States. This is for the upcoming election
