Base of history record for by election and analysis of what PM Lee has said, I do not think there will be a by election at Ponggol East.
Firstly, looking at history record.
1) In 1981, JBJ won at Anson. After 1981 PAP has never hold any by election other than 1992 Marine Parade and 2011 at Hougang. Both under special circumstance
2) In 1983 Havlock seat was vacated. Than PM LKY decided not to hold a BE citing GE is near.
3) In Nov and Dec 1986, both Anson and Geylang West were vacated. 1st DPM GCT said the PAP will decided at the 2nd half of 1987 whether a BE will be held. In 2nd half 1987, the PAP said due to the impelentation of town council. Some wards may be disappeared after that. Because of that , they have decided not to hold the BE.
4) In 1991 GE, PM lee Promised to hold in BE in 1992 to take in 6-8 new candidates. In 1992 , PM lee held in BE in his own sure win ward only to intake 1 candidate.
5) I will not go into detail of seat vacated in 1993 at Toa Payoh GRC, 1994 at Eunos GRC, 1999 at Jalan Besar GRC, 2008 at Jurong GRC, 2010 in AMK GRC as all are GRC.
6) In 2012, PM decided to hold a by election at Hougang partly because hougang is an opposition, PAP has nothing to lost by holding a BE
7) In 2013, Ponggol East was left vacated. Looking at the above example. Do you think BE will be held. I dont think so. After 1981, PAP will never take a risk to hold a PE even there is a 1% chance of losing.
Now analysis. he said he will consider carefully whether to hold a BE at Ponggol East.AT the end of the day he will said this:
" After careful consideration, I have decided not to hold a BE at Ponggol East for the time being. As ecomonic is not doing well, the government want to concentrated on ecomonic recovery. I understand that voters hope to have a by election. However, I ensure voters of Ponggol East that they will be well taken care of. All the 6 MPs of Paris Ris-Punggol GRC lead by TCH will continues to look after the wards. I promise resident of Pongool east that I will consider this issue again in alter part of the year"
This statement will tell people that PM Lee has carefully it carefully and it is due to economic condition that he decided to hold back the election. He will say he will consider it in the later part but only neat to the next GE
Firstly, looking at history record.
1) In 1981, JBJ won at Anson. After 1981 PAP has never hold any by election other than 1992 Marine Parade and 2011 at Hougang. Both under special circumstance
2) In 1983 Havlock seat was vacated. Than PM LKY decided not to hold a BE citing GE is near.
3) In Nov and Dec 1986, both Anson and Geylang West were vacated. 1st DPM GCT said the PAP will decided at the 2nd half of 1987 whether a BE will be held. In 2nd half 1987, the PAP said due to the impelentation of town council. Some wards may be disappeared after that. Because of that , they have decided not to hold the BE.
4) In 1991 GE, PM lee Promised to hold in BE in 1992 to take in 6-8 new candidates. In 1992 , PM lee held in BE in his own sure win ward only to intake 1 candidate.
5) I will not go into detail of seat vacated in 1993 at Toa Payoh GRC, 1994 at Eunos GRC, 1999 at Jalan Besar GRC, 2008 at Jurong GRC, 2010 in AMK GRC as all are GRC.
6) In 2012, PM decided to hold a by election at Hougang partly because hougang is an opposition, PAP has nothing to lost by holding a BE
7) In 2013, Ponggol East was left vacated. Looking at the above example. Do you think BE will be held. I dont think so. After 1981, PAP will never take a risk to hold a PE even there is a 1% chance of losing.
Now analysis. he said he will consider carefully whether to hold a BE at Ponggol East.AT the end of the day he will said this:
" After careful consideration, I have decided not to hold a BE at Ponggol East for the time being. As ecomonic is not doing well, the government want to concentrated on ecomonic recovery. I understand that voters hope to have a by election. However, I ensure voters of Ponggol East that they will be well taken care of. All the 6 MPs of Paris Ris-Punggol GRC lead by TCH will continues to look after the wards. I promise resident of Pongool east that I will consider this issue again in alter part of the year"
This statement will tell people that PM Lee has carefully it carefully and it is due to economic condition that he decided to hold back the election. He will say he will consider it in the later part but only neat to the next GE
