https://tech.sina.com.cn/5g/i/2019-06-14/doc-ihvhiews8740830.shtml
中国5G加速度：预计5年内创造就业岗位310万个
2019年06月14日 07:57 新浪科技综合
5G提速
来源：中国新闻周刊 记者贺斌
发于2019.6.17总第903期《中国新闻周刊》
就在工业和信息化部宣布“将于近期发放5G商用牌照”之后，仅过了3天，这只靴子就落地了！
6月6日上午，工信部向中国电信集团有限公司、中国移动通信集团有限公司、中国联合网络通信集团有限公司、中国广播电视网络有限公司颁发了基础电信业务经营许可证，批准四家企业经营“第五代数字蜂窝移动通信业务”。
就在同一天，工信部还对《电信业务分类目录（2015年版）》进行了修订，在A类“基础电信业务”，“A12蜂窝移动通信业务”类别下，增设“A12-4 第五代数字蜂窝移动通信业务”业务子类。根据对其具体业务的表述，第五代数字蜂窝移动通信业务是指“利用第五代数字蜂窝移动通信网提供的话音、数据、多媒体通信等业务”。
自此，中国正式进入5G商用元年。
战略安排
尽管布局很早，但直到“十三五”期间， 5G商用才真正被提上日程。
“十三五”规划纲要提出，“积极推进第五代移动通信（5G）和超宽带关键技术研究，启动5G商用”，工业和信息化部在此后出台的《信息通信行业发展规划（2016-2020年）》中，明确提出“到‘十三五’期末，5G启动商用服务”。
按照工信部给出的时间表，2019年将进入5G预商用阶段，2020年将正式商用。显然，向四大运营商发放牌照的举动，令中国的5G商用提前了至少半年。
实际上，早在正式发放4G牌照之前，中国就已经开展了5G的研究。2013年2月，中国工信部、国家发改委、科技部联合推动成立了IMT-2020（5G）推进组，旨在聚合移动通信领域产学研用力量、推动第五代移动通信技术研究、开展国际交流与合作。
10个月后，中国三大电信运营商获得4G牌照。在此后6年时间里，三大运营商大力开展电信基础设施建设，特别是2013年8月，国务院发布的“宽带中国”战略，使得电信盲区不断减少，基本实现全覆盖。
根据《2018年通信业统计公报》，2018年，全国移动通信基站总数达648万个，其中4G基站总数达到372万个。截至12月底，4G用户总数达到11.7亿户，普及率接近84%。
在这一过程中，5G技术也日趋成熟。2016年1月，中国全面启动5G技术研发试验，分为关键技术验证、技术方案验证和系统方案验证三个阶段推进实施。同年9月，第一阶段实验结束，完成了大规模天线、新型多址、新型多载波、高频段通信等7个无线关键技术，以及网络切片、移动边缘计算等4个网络关键技术的性能和功能测试，验证了这些关键技术在支持Gbps用户体验速率、毫秒级端到端时延、每平方公里百万连接等多样化5G场景需求的技术可行性。
随后开展的第二阶段试验则基于统一的试验平台、统一频率、统一设备和测试规范，针对各厂商面向5G移动互联网和物联网不同应用场景的技术方案进行验证。华为、爱立信、中兴、大唐、诺基亚和上海贝尔、三星等企业参与测试。
为此，IMT-2020（5G）推进组在北京怀柔规划了全球最大的5G试验外场，完成了30个站的站址规划，可满足外场单站及组网性能测试需求。与此同时，引入展讯、MTK等芯片企业，是德科技、罗德与施瓦茨、大唐联仪、星河亮点等仪表企业，开展了产业链的对接测试。
2017年6月，华为率先完成了测试。根据当时的报道，在C波段（频率从3.7~4.2GHz）的测试环节中，华为利用整个200MHz全带宽，通过5G新空口及大规模多入多出等技术，使单用户下行吞吐率超过6Gbps，小区峰值超过18Gbps。而在无线技术验证过程中，华为通过配套业界首个小型化5G测试终端，使单个5G基站可同时支持上百路超高清4K视频点播，在车载移动场景下流畅播放。
2017年11月15日，工业与信息化部官网发布《关于第五代移动通信系统使用3300-3600MHz和4800-5000MHz频段相关事宜的通知》。工信部介绍称，这次发布的中频段5G系统频率使用规划，能够兼顾系统覆盖和大容量的基本需求，是中国5G系统先期部署的主要频段。正式确定5G频谱，也使中国成为国际上率先发布5G系统在中频段使用规划的国家。
很快，5G技术研发试验迎来第三阶段的测试。用工信部信息通信发展司司长闻库的话说，这是5G实现“18岁成人”之前的关键一步。通过这一阶段的测试，预计在2018年底5G产业链主要环节基本达到预商用水平。
2018年2月，IMT-2020（5G）推进组联合华为，在北京怀柔5G测试外场率先开展中国5G技术研发试验第三阶段新技术验证测试，随后中兴、大唐、爱立信、上海诺基亚贝尔等系统企业，高通、英特尔、紫光展锐、海思等芯片企业，以及是德、罗德与施瓦茨等仪表企业参与了测试。
2019年1月，第三阶段测试结束，测试结果表明，5G基站与核心网设备均可支持非独立组网和独立组网模式，主要功能符合预期，达到预商用水平。2019年将启动5G增强及毫米波技术研发试验等工作。
四十年来，中国通信业经历了1G空白、2G跟随、3G突破、4G同步的探索历程，此次中国5G无论从研发到正式商用，终于开始“引领”世界。工信部电子一所信息化研究与促进中心主任周剑认为，这是一种必然的规律和趋势。
“这些年，中国在IT领域，尤其是互联网和5G通信领域的成就有目共睹，这得益于国家有一个开明的态度和容错机制，以及政策的引导和支持，最关键的，是有利于新一代网络技术发展的市场环境。”周剑表示，过去是用市场换技术，但是现在，中国已经变成买方市场，而且是全球最大的单一市场，无论消费还是产业，其规模都足以支撑某项新兴领域技术的快速成熟。
“有好的生态环境，有国家的政策，还有产业本身技术实力的不断积累沉淀，5G自然实现了率先突破，这实际上是从量变到质变的演进过程。”周剑告诉《中国新闻周刊》，随着这些年的积累，产业体系不断健全，加上中国本身正处在加速发展的阶段，已经处于引领地位的5G提前进入商用，是水到渠成的过程。
而更重要的原因，在周剑看来，目前，全世界正在经历一场巨大的变革，也被称作第四次工业革命或信息革命，这场变革可能会改变全球经济社会发展的基本模式，重构产业体系，改写现有的国际产业版图和秩序。也正因为如此，各国、各个经济体都要在5G方面谋篇布局，从战略上作出重大安排。
面对激烈的国际竞争，中国自然不甘人后。“既然技术已经基本成熟，也有一定技术储备，在应用上也做了一些探索，必然要提前安排，系统地谋划和部署。”周剑说。
谁来抢占先机
此前，中国信息通信研究院预测，按照2020年5G正式商用算起，预计2020~2025年期间，中国5G发展将直接带动经济总产出10.6万亿元，直接创造经济增加值3.3万亿元，创造直接就业岗位达310万个。
这无疑是块诱人的蛋糕——谁先拿到牌照，谁就能在这一巨大的市场中抢占先机。
就在中国开展三个阶段5G技术研发试验的同时，中国的三大电信运营商也各自开始5G布局。据中国联通最新发布的信息显示，中国联通目前已开通国内40个城市的5G试验网络，同时成立了5G应用创新联盟，有240余家企业加入。此外，还启动领航者计划，致力于打造5G应用万亿新市场、开创5G产业新未来。
中国移动董事长杨杰在发牌仪式上，对于公司的5G布局介绍得更为详细：早在2012年，中国移动就启动5G研发，围绕5G场景需求定义、核心技术研发、国际标准制定、产业生态构建，应用业务创新开展了大量工作。在标准制定上，牵头完成《5G愿景与需求》白皮书编制，提出的8大5G关键性能和效率指标被国际电信联盟（ITU）采纳、成为全球共识，并在ITU、3GPP中牵头32个关键标准项目，成为5G标准制定的重要力量。
在应用创新上，中国移动面向全球成立5G联合创新中心，目前已建立22个开放实验室，汇聚超500家成员，在雄安、成都、上海成立三大产业研究院，与重点行业龙头企业合作，聚焦9大垂直行业领域，形成创新应用方案及端到端解决方案，目前已落地开展应用合作试点。
此外，中国移动在杭州、广州、上海、武汉、苏州5个城市启动5G网络规模试验，在北京、重庆、天津、深圳、雄安等12个城市开展5G业务示范试验网建设，围绕移动远程医疗、云端机器人、智慧工厂、智慧校园、智能电网、高清云游戏等31个应用场景开展5G业务示范。5G牌照下发后，中国移动宣称，今年9月底前在超过40个城市提供5G服务，“客户不换卡，不换号就可开通5G服务”。
相对而言，中国电信起步较晚，2017年底开始参与5G试验，但联合国内外众多企业开展5G技术试验和17个试点城市5G试验网建设，也取得了一些突破性成果。同时，与合作伙伴开展了丰富的5G应用创新实践，目前已涵盖政务、制造、交通、物流、教育、医疗、媒体、警务、旅游、环保十大垂直行业重点应用场景，联合试验客户已超过200家。
2018年12月，工信部向中国电信、中国移动、中国联通发放了5G系统中低频段试验频率使用许可。其中，中国电信和中国联通获得3500MHz频段试验频率使用许可，中国移动获得2600MHz和4900MHz频段试验频率使用许可，有力保障了三大运营商开展5G系统试验所必须使用的频率资源。
与三大运营商相比，中国广电似乎并没有提前开展5G布局，却也“坐收”5G牌照，其原因耐人寻味。对此，周剑分析，这是为了在通信领域形成一种更加良性的竞争生态。同时，作为三网融合（电信网、广播电视网和互联网）的推进主力，中国广电还需要一系列机制创新，借助5G带来的巨变，或将更好地促进三网融合。此外，广电在频谱资源上也占有一定优势，并且广电行业本身就是潜在的市场，无论社会民生还是智慧城市，都能与之响应，这也是中国广电的优势所在。
中国广电全称是中国广播电视网络有限公司，成立于2014年4月17日，注册资金45亿元，全部以货币出资，由中央财政安排，财政部代表国务院履行出资人职责。2016年5月5日，中国广电获得工信部颁发的《基础电信业务经营许可证》，但从目前公开的信息来看，似乎并未在电信领域有较大突破。
“在三网融合过程中，中国广电一直期待在移动通信领域有所作为，成立了国网公司，申请5G牌照，做了很多的工作。”中国通信业知名观察家、飞象网创始人项立刚认为，之所以给中国广电发放牌照，可能因为在5G中会有一部分垂直应用是出自视频等方面的需要，“但我个人认为，对于通信这样一个公共服务领域而言，需要有资金、人才、技术和管理的积累。”
“牌照是牌照，网络是网络，4家企业拿到5G牌照并不能理解为要建4张庞大的网络，三大运营商的格局不会发生变化，不会变为四大运营商。”中国联通研究院院长张云勇认为，中国广电的优势在于高清视频等内容的承载，在业务层面上，协作共享是王道，4家企业会更加协同，实现频段以及基站建设的共享。
诸多难题
从发放牌照算起，4G在中国发展了近6年。据测算，截至2017年年末，中国电信、中国移动、中国联通三家电信运营商在4G网络上的建设规模至少是8000亿元，从整体上看，目前运营商的4G投入成本也尚未收回。在这种情况下，四家获得牌照的企业要想迅速发展5G，建设成本成为不得不考虑的问题。
5G基站建设需要多大的资金投入？不久前华为CEO任正非在接受中国媒体采访时，对5G基站的建设有过描述，称“只有一点点大，20公斤，就像装文件的手提箱那么大”，因此，5G基站的安装不需要铁塔和吊车，可以随意地装在杆子上、挂在墙上，甚至放进下水道里。
然而，为满足高流量密度、高峰值速率的要求，5G将采用宏微异构的超密集组网架构。此前业界有过预测，5G小基站站间距仅为50~100米，甚至更小，因此站址数量将是4G的数倍。中信建投的研究数据显示，预计未来5G基站数量将是4G的两倍，运营商5G建网主体投资可能将达1.23万亿元，较4G投资增长68%。
可以预见，在深化网络提速降费、持续提升4G网络质量的同时，基础电信运营商还要在短期内投入大量资金，用于建设5G网络、配套需求以及后期的运营维护，资金压力可想而知。
但中国通信业观察家项立刚并不认为成本对于运营商而言是个很大的问题，“运营商从来没有亏损，相反，收入一直在增加，正是因为提供了有价值的服务，所以，5G必然会带来更多的收入机会和更大的市场空间。”
来自工信部的数据显示，2019年1~4月，通信业营业收入为5145亿元，其中电信业务收入为4463亿元，比上年同期增长0.7%。
这是否意味着，5G建设资金很大程度会体现在资费中，最终由消费者承担？目前5G流量资费标准尚未确定，但多位业内人士均表示，5G的流量资费只会比4G更低，因为使用的频率增加了，一些原来不用的频率也利用起来了，频率的使用效率大大提高。而且从2G到4G的经验也证明，技术越进步，资费越便宜。
“2G时代，1GB的流量需要1万元，3G时代，1GB的流量约500元，4G时代，1GB流量从10元降到8.62元，按照这个趋势，5G时代，流量价格只会更低。”项立刚对《中国新闻周刊》说。
“如果纯粹由企业自主选择的话，我相信正常情况下，企业肯定愿意把上一代技术的市场价值尽可能的回收之后，才会考虑下一代技术。”工信部电子一所信息化研究与促进中心主任周剑说，“但是5G作为信息革命时代或者新工业革命时代的一个关键性基础设施，全球都在抢抓这一战略机遇期，作为一种战略安排，无论从国家还是企业层面，尤其是有社会责任的央企，就不能纯粹从短期的经济利益角度来看待这个问题。”
除了资金难题，电信基础设施建设面临的另一个难题是选址问题，出于对基站辐射的担忧，或产生邻避效应，阻挠基站的建设，这在过去通信基础设施建设中并不少见，在站间距大大缩短的5G时代，这样的问题或将更多。
对此，中国工程院院士邬贺铨向《中国新闻周刊》表示，中国基站的电磁辐射指标其实比欧美还要严格10倍，但老百姓依然会有担心，或许在这一问题上，需要政府多做引导。
“我觉得5G商用最大的前途还是来自于产业，而不是消费，因此在布局上应该优先考虑产业发展潜力大，需求更迫切，或者是产业集群地区，这样有利于更快地获得商业回报。”周剑说。
在获得5G牌照后，中国联通和中国移动都宣布了下一步的建设布局，40个城市将首先开展5G商用，主要是直辖市、省会城市和计划单列市，以及雄安新区、苏州等在国家战略中占据重要地位的城市。
这样是否会导致城市发展间的数字鸿沟，让地区发展更加不均衡？
对此，周剑认为，中国的发展本身就有梯度，并不因为人为因素就能改变。从5G本身的发展来看，5G布局本来就是超前应用的，因此在那些有条件的地方率先突破，对于相对条件较弱的地方而言，可以起到巨大的引领带动作用。而且，创新的过程必然会付出一些代价和风险，等到这些发展较好的城市、地区探索成熟之后，再到相对落后的地方，或许发展的加速度会比第一批更快，经济性更好，这样也符合他们的需求和特点。
4G改变生活，5G改变社会
尽管对于基站建设还有诸多难点，但5G商用的到来，依然给人们的未来带来无限可能。“4G改变生活，5G改变社会”，4G的发展，由此衍生出移动支付、共享经济等各种场景，给中国老百姓的生活带来天翻地覆的变化。
5G具有高带宽、低时延、广连接等优势， 未来将与诸多垂直行业进行深度融合。此前，华为发布《5G时代十大应用场景白皮书》， 探讨最能体现5G能力的十大应用场景分别是云VR/AR、车联网、智能制造、智慧能源、无线医疗、无线家庭娱乐、联网无人机、社交网络、个人AI辅助、智慧城市。
在今年3月的博鳌论坛上，工信部部长苗圩也对5G的场景应用做了一番畅想，认为20%将用于人和人之间通讯，80%可能用于物与物之间通讯，也就是移动物联网领域。
10年前，中国就开始布局物联网，但时至今日依然没有取得突破性进展，5G的到来，是否会成为中国物联网发展的一阵东风？
“物联网的战略方向是对的，只是当时的重点很多放在传感网上了，主要解决的是可感知可连接，但没有通用网络的支持，这种传感都是碎片化的。”周剑说。此外，其他的技术没有跟上，比如数据处理的能力，人工智能技术等，都还是星星之火，在各自领域发力，很难形成燎原之势。而现在各方面条件准备充分，5G的发展阶段又正好切合了整体的发展要求，发展物联网或许正当其时。“但这并不是说技术成熟了，可能仍有一些地方需要努力。”
周剑认为，未来5G商用要形成规模，首先需要国家做好总体的战略布局和引导，尤其是要优化政策环境，支持创新。其次，要确立基本规则，大家共同遵守，一视同仁，避免恶性竞争。
项立刚则将物联网称作智能互联网，是移动互联、智能感应、大数据和智能学习等共同形成的一个新的能力，移动互联是它的基础，没有移动互联，物联网所有的能力就没法发挥出来。
应用场景不足，终端产品还未形成量产规模，5G商用或将在一段时间内面临“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的难题。但项立刚认为并不需要担心这个问题，有了网络就会有人基于网络开展各项业务，不必急于一时。“现阶段，5G能带给大家最直观的体验还是消费者业务，网速增加了，视频不卡了，有了良好的网络体验之后，下一步再开展智能物联技术。”
China's 5G acceleration: 3.1 million jobs are expected to be created within 5 years
June 14, 2019 07:57 Sina Technology Integration
5G speed increase
Source: China News Weekly Reporter He Bin
Issued at 2019.6.17, the total 903th issue of China News Weekly
Just after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that "the 5G commercial license will be issued in the near future", only three days later, this boots will land!
On the morning of June 6, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a basic telecommunications business license to China Telecom Group Co., Ltd., China Mobile Communications Group Co., Ltd., China United Network Communications Group Co., Ltd. and China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd., and approved the operation of four enterprises. The fifth generation of digital cellular mobile communication services."
On the same day, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also revised the "Telecom Service Classification Catalogue (2015 Edition)". Under the category "Basic Telecommunications Service" and "A12 Cellular Mobile Communication Service", the "A12-4 fifth generation number" was added. Cellular mobile communication service "business subclass. According to the description of its specific business, the fifth-generation digital cellular mobile communication service refers to "using voice, data, multimedia communication and other services provided by the fifth-generation digital cellular mobile communication network."
Since then, China has officially entered the first year of 5G commercial use.
Strategic arrangement
Although the layout was very early, it was not until the "13th Five-Year Plan" period that 5G commercials were really put on the agenda.
The “13th Five-Year Plan” proposes “to actively promote the research on the fifth-generation mobile communication (5G) and ultra-broadband key technologies, and launch 5G commercial applications”. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the “Information and Communication Industry Development Plan” (2016- In 2020), it was clearly stated that “to the end of the '13th Five-Year' period, 5G launched commercial services”.
According to the timetable given by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it will enter the 5G pre-commercial phase in 2019 and will be officially commercialized in 2020. Obviously, the move to license the four major operators has made China's 5G commercial business ahead of at least half a year.
In fact, China has already carried out 5G research before the formal issuance of 4G licenses. In February 2013, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly promoted the establishment of the IMT-2020 (5G) promotion group, aiming to aggregate the strength of industry, academia and research in the field of mobile communications, promote the research of the fifth generation of mobile communication technologies, and conduct international exchanges. Cooperation.
Ten months later, China's three major telecom operators received 4G licenses. In the next six years, the three major operators vigorously carried out telecommunications infrastructure construction. In particular, in August 2013, the “Broadband China” strategy issued by the State Council reduced the number of telecommunications blind spots and basically achieved full coverage.
According to the "Statistical Bulletin of the Communications Industry of 2018", in 2018, the total number of mobile communication base stations nationwide reached 6.48 million, of which the total number of 4G base stations reached 3.72 million. As of the end of December, the total number of 4G users reached 1.17 billion, and the penetration rate was close to 84%.
In this process, 5G technology is also maturing. In January 2016, China launched a comprehensive 5G technology R&D test, which was divided into three stages: key technology verification, technical solution verification and system solution verification. In September of the same year, the first phase of the experiment was completed, and seven wireless key technologies such as large-scale antenna, new multi-access, new multi-carrier, and high-band communication, and the performance of four network-critical technologies such as network slicing and mobile edge computing were completed. Functional testing validated the technical feasibility of these key technologies to support Gbps user experience rates, millisecond end-to-end latency, and millions of connections per square kilometer of diverse 5G scenarios.
The second phase of the subsequent test was based on a unified test platform, unified frequency, unified equipment and test specifications, and verified the technical solutions for different application scenarios of 5G mobile Internet and IoT. Huawei, Ericsson, ZTE, Datang, Nokia and Shanghai Bell, Samsung and other companies participated in the test.
To this end, the IMT-2020 (5G) promotion team planned the world's largest 5G test field in Huairou, Beijing, and completed the site planning of 30 stations, which can meet the needs of field single station and networking performance testing. At the same time, the introduction of Spreadtrum, MTK and other chip companies, Keysight, Rohde & Schwarz, Datang Lianyi, Xinghe Highlights and other instrument companies, carried out the industrial chain docking test.
In June 2017, Huawei took the lead in testing. According to reports at the time, in the C-band (frequency from 3.7 to 4.2 GHz) test session, Huawei used the entire 200MHz full bandwidth, through 5G new air interface and large-scale multi-input and multi-output technologies, so that the single-user downlink throughput rate exceeds 6Gbps. The peak of the cell exceeds 18Gbps. In the wireless technology verification process, Huawei has enabled the industry's first miniaturized 5G test terminal to enable a single 5G base station to simultaneously support hundreds of ultra-high-definition 4K video on demand, and play smoothly in the car mobile scene.
On November 15, 2017, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Use of the 3300-3600MHz and 4800-5000MHz Bands in the Fifth Generation Mobile Communication System. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the frequency band use plan for the mid-band 5G system released this time can take into account the basic requirements of system coverage and large capacity, and is the main frequency band for the early deployment of China's 5G system. The formal determination of the 5G spectrum has also made China the first country in the world to release the 5G system for use in the mid-band spectrum.
Soon, the 5G technology R&D test ushered in the third phase of testing. According to Wen Ku, director of the Information and Communication Development Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, this is a key step before 5G achieves the "18-year-old adult." Through this stage of testing, it is expected that the main links of the 5G industry chain will basically reach the pre-commercial level by the end of 2018.
In February 2018, IMT-2020 (5G) promotion team united with Huawei to take the lead in launching the third phase of China's 5G technology R&D test in Beijing Huairou 5G test field, followed by ZTE, Datang, Ericsson, Shanghai Nokia Bell and other systems. Enterprises, Qualcomm, Intel, Ziguang Zhanrui, Haisi and other chip companies, as well as German, Rhodes and Schwarz and other instrument companies participated in the test.
In January 2019, the third phase of the test was completed. The test results show that both the 5G base station and the core network equipment can support non-independent networking and independent networking modes. The main functions are in line with expectations and reach the pre-commercial level. In 2019, 5G enhancement and millimeter wave technology research and development tests will be launched.
In the past 40 years, China's communications industry has experienced the exploration of 1G blank, 2G follow-up, 3G breakthrough, and 4G synchronization. The 5G China has finally begun to “lead” the world from research and development to formal commercial use. Zhou Jian, director of the Information Research and Promotion Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believes that this is an inevitable law and trend.
“In these years, China’s achievements in the IT field, especially in the Internet and 5G communications, are obvious to all. This is due to the country’s open-minded attitude and fault-tolerant mechanism, as well as policy guidance and support. The most crucial thing is to benefit the new generation. The market environment for the development of network technology." Zhou Jian said that in the past, the market was changed to technology, but now China has become the buyer's market, and it is the world's largest single market. Whether it is consumption or industry, its scale is enough to support a new emerging market. The rapid maturity of domain technology.
"There is a good ecological environment, a national policy, and the accumulation of the technical strength of the industry itself. 5G naturally achieves the first breakthrough, which is actually an evolution process from quantitative change to qualitative change." Zhou Jian told China News Weekly With the accumulation of these years, the industrial system is constantly improving, and China itself is in the stage of accelerating development. The 5G, which has already been in the leading position, enters commercialization in advance, which is a process of progress.
The more important reason, in Zhou Jian’s view, is that the world is undergoing a huge transformation, also known as the fourth industrial revolution or information revolution, which may change the basic model of global economic and social development. Rebuild the industrial system and rewrite the existing international industry map and order. It is precisely because of this that countries and economies must make arrangements for 5G and make major arrangements strategically.
In the face of fierce international competition, China is naturally unwilling. "Since the technology is basically mature, there are certain technical reserves, and some explorations have been made in the application. It is necessary to arrange in advance and systematically plan and deploy." Zhou Jian said.
Who will seize the opportunity?
Previously, the China Information and Communication Research Institute predicted that, according to the formal commercialization of 5G in 2020, it is estimated that during the period of 2020~2025, China's 5G development will directly drive the total economic output of 10.6 trillion yuan, directly creating an economic added value of 3.3 trillion yuan. Created 3.1 million direct jobs.
This is undoubtedly a tempting cake – whoever gets the license first will be able to take the lead in this huge market.
At the same time as China's three-phase 5G technology R&D trials, China's three major telecom operators have also started their 5G layout. According to the latest information released by China Unicom, China Unicom has opened a 5G test network in 40 cities in China, and established a 5G application innovation alliance, with more than 240 companies joining. In addition, it has also launched the pilot program to create a new market for 5G applications and create a new future for the 5G industry.
At the licensing ceremony, Yang Jie, Chairman of China Mobile, introduced the company's 5G layout in more detail: As early as 2012, China Mobile launched 5G R&D, around 5G scene requirements definition, core technology research and development, international standards development, and industry. Ecological construction, application business innovation has carried out a lot of work. In the standard setting, lead the completion of the "5G Vision and Requirements" white paper, the proposed 8 5G key performance and efficiency indicators adopted by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), become a global consensus, and lead 32 key standards in the ITU, 3GPP The project has become an important force in the formulation of 5G standards.
In terms of application innovation, China Mobile has established a 5G joint innovation center for the world. At present, it has established 22 open laboratories, bringing together 500 members, and established three industrial research institutes in Xiong'an, Chengdu and Shanghai to cooperate with leading enterprises in key industries. Focusing on 9 vertical industry sectors, forming innovative application solutions and end-to-end solutions, the application cooperation pilot has been launched.
In addition, China Mobile launched 5G network scale trials in five cities including Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Wuhan and Suzhou, and carried out 5G service demonstration test network construction in 12 cities including Beijing, Chongqing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Xiong'an, focusing on mobile telemedicine. 31 application scenarios such as cloud robots, smart factories, smart campuses, smart grids, and high-definition cloud games are used to demonstrate 5G services. After the issuance of the 5G license, China Mobile announced that it will provide 5G services in more than 40 cities by the end of September this year. "Customers do not change cards, and can open 5G services without changing the number."
Relatively speaking, China Telecom started late, and began to participate in the 5G test at the end of 2017. However, many domestic and foreign enterprises have carried out 5G technology experiments and construction of 5 pilot cities in 17 pilot cities, and some breakthrough results have been achieved. At the same time, we have carried out rich 5G application innovation practices with our partners. At present, we have covered ten key vertical application scenarios of government, manufacturing, transportation, logistics, education, medical care, media, police, tourism and environmental protection. 200 homes.
In December 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the 5G system low-frequency test frequency license to China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom. Among them, China Telecom and China Unicom have obtained the test frequency license for the 3500MHz frequency band. China Mobile has obtained the test frequency license for the 2600MHz and 4900MHz frequency bands, which effectively guarantees the frequency resources that the three major operators must use to carry out the 5G system test.
Compared with the three major operators, China Broadcasting and Television does not seem to have launched the 5G layout in advance, but it also “sit and accept” 5G licenses. The reason is intriguing. In this regard, Zhou Jian analyzed that this is to form a more benign competitive ecology in the field of communication. At the same time, as the main force of the three-network convergence (telecom network, radio and television network and the Internet), China Radio and Television also needs a series of mechanism innovations, with the great changes brought about by 5G, or will better promote the integration of the three networks. In addition, radio and television also has certain advantages in spectrum resources, and the broadcasting and TV industry itself is a potential market. Whether it is social life or smart city, it can respond with it. This is also the advantage of China Radio and Television.
China Radio and Television Corporation is the China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd., which was established on April 17, 2014 with a registered capital of 4.5 billion yuan. All of them are funded by the central government, and the Ministry of Finance performs the duties of the investor on behalf of the State Council. On May 5, 2016, China Radio and Television received the “Basic Telecommunications Business License” issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. However, from the current public information, it seems that there has not been a major breakthrough in the telecommunications field.
"In the process of triple play, China Radio and Television has been looking forward to making a difference in the field of mobile communications, setting up a national network company, applying for a 5G license, and doing a lot of work." China's communications industry's well-known observer, Feixiang network founder Xiang Li I just thought that the reason for issuing licenses to China Radio and Television may be because some of the vertical applications in 5G are from video and other needs. "But I personally think that for a public service such as communication, there needs to be funds and talents. , the accumulation of technology and management."
"License is a license, the network is a network, and four companies can't understand that they need to build four huge networks. The three major operators will not change their landscape and will not become the four major operators." Zhang Yunyong, dean of China Unicom Research Institute, believes that China Broadcasting and Television's advantage lies in the bearer of content such as high-definition video. At the business level, collaborative sharing is king, and four companies will be more collaborative to realize the sharing of frequency bands and base station construction.
Many problems
Since the issuance of licenses, 4G has been in China for nearly six years. According to estimates, as of the end of 2017, China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom's three telecom operators on the 4G network construction scale of at least 800 billion yuan, from the overall point of view, the current operator's 4G input costs have not yet recovered. Under this circumstance, if four licensees want to develop 5G rapidly, the construction cost becomes a problem that has to be considered.
How much capital investment does 5G base station construction require? Not long ago, Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei had a description of the construction of 5G base stations when interviewed by the Chinese media, saying that "only a little bit bigger, 20 kilograms, as big as a suitcase with documents", therefore, the installation of 5G base stations does not need Towers and cranes can be mounted on poles, hung on walls, or even placed in sewers.
However, in order to meet the requirements of high traffic density and high peak rate, 5G will adopt a hyper-heterogeneous ultra-dense networking architecture. Previously, there have been predictions in the industry that the 5G small base station spacing is only 50~100 meters, or even smaller, so the number of sites will be several times that of 4G. According to research data from CITIC Jiantou, it is expected that the number of 5G base stations will be twice that of 4G in the future, and the main investment of operators' 5G network construction may reach 1.23 trillion yuan, a 68% increase over 4G investment.
Can be foreseen, deep
中国5G加速度：预计5年内创造就业岗位310万个
2019年06月14日 07:57 新浪科技综合
5G提速
来源：中国新闻周刊 记者贺斌
发于2019.6.17总第903期《中国新闻周刊》
就在工业和信息化部宣布“将于近期发放5G商用牌照”之后，仅过了3天，这只靴子就落地了！
6月6日上午，工信部向中国电信集团有限公司、中国移动通信集团有限公司、中国联合网络通信集团有限公司、中国广播电视网络有限公司颁发了基础电信业务经营许可证，批准四家企业经营“第五代数字蜂窝移动通信业务”。
就在同一天，工信部还对《电信业务分类目录（2015年版）》进行了修订，在A类“基础电信业务”，“A12蜂窝移动通信业务”类别下，增设“A12-4 第五代数字蜂窝移动通信业务”业务子类。根据对其具体业务的表述，第五代数字蜂窝移动通信业务是指“利用第五代数字蜂窝移动通信网提供的话音、数据、多媒体通信等业务”。
自此，中国正式进入5G商用元年。
战略安排
尽管布局很早，但直到“十三五”期间， 5G商用才真正被提上日程。
“十三五”规划纲要提出，“积极推进第五代移动通信（5G）和超宽带关键技术研究，启动5G商用”，工业和信息化部在此后出台的《信息通信行业发展规划（2016-2020年）》中，明确提出“到‘十三五’期末，5G启动商用服务”。
按照工信部给出的时间表，2019年将进入5G预商用阶段，2020年将正式商用。显然，向四大运营商发放牌照的举动，令中国的5G商用提前了至少半年。
实际上，早在正式发放4G牌照之前，中国就已经开展了5G的研究。2013年2月，中国工信部、国家发改委、科技部联合推动成立了IMT-2020（5G）推进组，旨在聚合移动通信领域产学研用力量、推动第五代移动通信技术研究、开展国际交流与合作。
10个月后，中国三大电信运营商获得4G牌照。在此后6年时间里，三大运营商大力开展电信基础设施建设，特别是2013年8月，国务院发布的“宽带中国”战略，使得电信盲区不断减少，基本实现全覆盖。
根据《2018年通信业统计公报》，2018年，全国移动通信基站总数达648万个，其中4G基站总数达到372万个。截至12月底，4G用户总数达到11.7亿户，普及率接近84%。
在这一过程中，5G技术也日趋成熟。2016年1月，中国全面启动5G技术研发试验，分为关键技术验证、技术方案验证和系统方案验证三个阶段推进实施。同年9月，第一阶段实验结束，完成了大规模天线、新型多址、新型多载波、高频段通信等7个无线关键技术，以及网络切片、移动边缘计算等4个网络关键技术的性能和功能测试，验证了这些关键技术在支持Gbps用户体验速率、毫秒级端到端时延、每平方公里百万连接等多样化5G场景需求的技术可行性。
随后开展的第二阶段试验则基于统一的试验平台、统一频率、统一设备和测试规范，针对各厂商面向5G移动互联网和物联网不同应用场景的技术方案进行验证。华为、爱立信、中兴、大唐、诺基亚和上海贝尔、三星等企业参与测试。
为此，IMT-2020（5G）推进组在北京怀柔规划了全球最大的5G试验外场，完成了30个站的站址规划，可满足外场单站及组网性能测试需求。与此同时，引入展讯、MTK等芯片企业，是德科技、罗德与施瓦茨、大唐联仪、星河亮点等仪表企业，开展了产业链的对接测试。
2017年6月，华为率先完成了测试。根据当时的报道，在C波段（频率从3.7~4.2GHz）的测试环节中，华为利用整个200MHz全带宽，通过5G新空口及大规模多入多出等技术，使单用户下行吞吐率超过6Gbps，小区峰值超过18Gbps。而在无线技术验证过程中，华为通过配套业界首个小型化5G测试终端，使单个5G基站可同时支持上百路超高清4K视频点播，在车载移动场景下流畅播放。
2017年11月15日，工业与信息化部官网发布《关于第五代移动通信系统使用3300-3600MHz和4800-5000MHz频段相关事宜的通知》。工信部介绍称，这次发布的中频段5G系统频率使用规划，能够兼顾系统覆盖和大容量的基本需求，是中国5G系统先期部署的主要频段。正式确定5G频谱，也使中国成为国际上率先发布5G系统在中频段使用规划的国家。
很快，5G技术研发试验迎来第三阶段的测试。用工信部信息通信发展司司长闻库的话说，这是5G实现“18岁成人”之前的关键一步。通过这一阶段的测试，预计在2018年底5G产业链主要环节基本达到预商用水平。
2018年2月，IMT-2020（5G）推进组联合华为，在北京怀柔5G测试外场率先开展中国5G技术研发试验第三阶段新技术验证测试，随后中兴、大唐、爱立信、上海诺基亚贝尔等系统企业，高通、英特尔、紫光展锐、海思等芯片企业，以及是德、罗德与施瓦茨等仪表企业参与了测试。
2019年1月，第三阶段测试结束，测试结果表明，5G基站与核心网设备均可支持非独立组网和独立组网模式，主要功能符合预期，达到预商用水平。2019年将启动5G增强及毫米波技术研发试验等工作。
四十年来，中国通信业经历了1G空白、2G跟随、3G突破、4G同步的探索历程，此次中国5G无论从研发到正式商用，终于开始“引领”世界。工信部电子一所信息化研究与促进中心主任周剑认为，这是一种必然的规律和趋势。
“这些年，中国在IT领域，尤其是互联网和5G通信领域的成就有目共睹，这得益于国家有一个开明的态度和容错机制，以及政策的引导和支持，最关键的，是有利于新一代网络技术发展的市场环境。”周剑表示，过去是用市场换技术，但是现在，中国已经变成买方市场，而且是全球最大的单一市场，无论消费还是产业，其规模都足以支撑某项新兴领域技术的快速成熟。
“有好的生态环境，有国家的政策，还有产业本身技术实力的不断积累沉淀，5G自然实现了率先突破，这实际上是从量变到质变的演进过程。”周剑告诉《中国新闻周刊》，随着这些年的积累，产业体系不断健全，加上中国本身正处在加速发展的阶段，已经处于引领地位的5G提前进入商用，是水到渠成的过程。
而更重要的原因，在周剑看来，目前，全世界正在经历一场巨大的变革，也被称作第四次工业革命或信息革命，这场变革可能会改变全球经济社会发展的基本模式，重构产业体系，改写现有的国际产业版图和秩序。也正因为如此，各国、各个经济体都要在5G方面谋篇布局，从战略上作出重大安排。
面对激烈的国际竞争，中国自然不甘人后。“既然技术已经基本成熟，也有一定技术储备，在应用上也做了一些探索，必然要提前安排，系统地谋划和部署。”周剑说。
谁来抢占先机
此前，中国信息通信研究院预测，按照2020年5G正式商用算起，预计2020~2025年期间，中国5G发展将直接带动经济总产出10.6万亿元，直接创造经济增加值3.3万亿元，创造直接就业岗位达310万个。
这无疑是块诱人的蛋糕——谁先拿到牌照，谁就能在这一巨大的市场中抢占先机。
就在中国开展三个阶段5G技术研发试验的同时，中国的三大电信运营商也各自开始5G布局。据中国联通最新发布的信息显示，中国联通目前已开通国内40个城市的5G试验网络，同时成立了5G应用创新联盟，有240余家企业加入。此外，还启动领航者计划，致力于打造5G应用万亿新市场、开创5G产业新未来。
中国移动董事长杨杰在发牌仪式上，对于公司的5G布局介绍得更为详细：早在2012年，中国移动就启动5G研发，围绕5G场景需求定义、核心技术研发、国际标准制定、产业生态构建，应用业务创新开展了大量工作。在标准制定上，牵头完成《5G愿景与需求》白皮书编制，提出的8大5G关键性能和效率指标被国际电信联盟（ITU）采纳、成为全球共识，并在ITU、3GPP中牵头32个关键标准项目，成为5G标准制定的重要力量。
在应用创新上，中国移动面向全球成立5G联合创新中心，目前已建立22个开放实验室，汇聚超500家成员，在雄安、成都、上海成立三大产业研究院，与重点行业龙头企业合作，聚焦9大垂直行业领域，形成创新应用方案及端到端解决方案，目前已落地开展应用合作试点。
此外，中国移动在杭州、广州、上海、武汉、苏州5个城市启动5G网络规模试验，在北京、重庆、天津、深圳、雄安等12个城市开展5G业务示范试验网建设，围绕移动远程医疗、云端机器人、智慧工厂、智慧校园、智能电网、高清云游戏等31个应用场景开展5G业务示范。5G牌照下发后，中国移动宣称，今年9月底前在超过40个城市提供5G服务，“客户不换卡，不换号就可开通5G服务”。
相对而言，中国电信起步较晚，2017年底开始参与5G试验，但联合国内外众多企业开展5G技术试验和17个试点城市5G试验网建设，也取得了一些突破性成果。同时，与合作伙伴开展了丰富的5G应用创新实践，目前已涵盖政务、制造、交通、物流、教育、医疗、媒体、警务、旅游、环保十大垂直行业重点应用场景，联合试验客户已超过200家。
2018年12月，工信部向中国电信、中国移动、中国联通发放了5G系统中低频段试验频率使用许可。其中，中国电信和中国联通获得3500MHz频段试验频率使用许可，中国移动获得2600MHz和4900MHz频段试验频率使用许可，有力保障了三大运营商开展5G系统试验所必须使用的频率资源。
与三大运营商相比，中国广电似乎并没有提前开展5G布局，却也“坐收”5G牌照，其原因耐人寻味。对此，周剑分析，这是为了在通信领域形成一种更加良性的竞争生态。同时，作为三网融合（电信网、广播电视网和互联网）的推进主力，中国广电还需要一系列机制创新，借助5G带来的巨变，或将更好地促进三网融合。此外，广电在频谱资源上也占有一定优势，并且广电行业本身就是潜在的市场，无论社会民生还是智慧城市，都能与之响应，这也是中国广电的优势所在。
中国广电全称是中国广播电视网络有限公司，成立于2014年4月17日，注册资金45亿元，全部以货币出资，由中央财政安排，财政部代表国务院履行出资人职责。2016年5月5日，中国广电获得工信部颁发的《基础电信业务经营许可证》，但从目前公开的信息来看，似乎并未在电信领域有较大突破。
“在三网融合过程中，中国广电一直期待在移动通信领域有所作为，成立了国网公司，申请5G牌照，做了很多的工作。”中国通信业知名观察家、飞象网创始人项立刚认为，之所以给中国广电发放牌照，可能因为在5G中会有一部分垂直应用是出自视频等方面的需要，“但我个人认为，对于通信这样一个公共服务领域而言，需要有资金、人才、技术和管理的积累。”
“牌照是牌照，网络是网络，4家企业拿到5G牌照并不能理解为要建4张庞大的网络，三大运营商的格局不会发生变化，不会变为四大运营商。”中国联通研究院院长张云勇认为，中国广电的优势在于高清视频等内容的承载，在业务层面上，协作共享是王道，4家企业会更加协同，实现频段以及基站建设的共享。
诸多难题
从发放牌照算起，4G在中国发展了近6年。据测算，截至2017年年末，中国电信、中国移动、中国联通三家电信运营商在4G网络上的建设规模至少是8000亿元，从整体上看，目前运营商的4G投入成本也尚未收回。在这种情况下，四家获得牌照的企业要想迅速发展5G，建设成本成为不得不考虑的问题。
5G基站建设需要多大的资金投入？不久前华为CEO任正非在接受中国媒体采访时，对5G基站的建设有过描述，称“只有一点点大，20公斤，就像装文件的手提箱那么大”，因此，5G基站的安装不需要铁塔和吊车，可以随意地装在杆子上、挂在墙上，甚至放进下水道里。
然而，为满足高流量密度、高峰值速率的要求，5G将采用宏微异构的超密集组网架构。此前业界有过预测，5G小基站站间距仅为50~100米，甚至更小，因此站址数量将是4G的数倍。中信建投的研究数据显示，预计未来5G基站数量将是4G的两倍，运营商5G建网主体投资可能将达1.23万亿元，较4G投资增长68%。
可以预见，在深化网络提速降费、持续提升4G网络质量的同时，基础电信运营商还要在短期内投入大量资金，用于建设5G网络、配套需求以及后期的运营维护，资金压力可想而知。
但中国通信业观察家项立刚并不认为成本对于运营商而言是个很大的问题，“运营商从来没有亏损，相反，收入一直在增加，正是因为提供了有价值的服务，所以，5G必然会带来更多的收入机会和更大的市场空间。”
来自工信部的数据显示，2019年1~4月，通信业营业收入为5145亿元，其中电信业务收入为4463亿元，比上年同期增长0.7%。
这是否意味着，5G建设资金很大程度会体现在资费中，最终由消费者承担？目前5G流量资费标准尚未确定，但多位业内人士均表示，5G的流量资费只会比4G更低，因为使用的频率增加了，一些原来不用的频率也利用起来了，频率的使用效率大大提高。而且从2G到4G的经验也证明，技术越进步，资费越便宜。
“2G时代，1GB的流量需要1万元，3G时代，1GB的流量约500元，4G时代，1GB流量从10元降到8.62元，按照这个趋势，5G时代，流量价格只会更低。”项立刚对《中国新闻周刊》说。
“如果纯粹由企业自主选择的话，我相信正常情况下，企业肯定愿意把上一代技术的市场价值尽可能的回收之后，才会考虑下一代技术。”工信部电子一所信息化研究与促进中心主任周剑说，“但是5G作为信息革命时代或者新工业革命时代的一个关键性基础设施，全球都在抢抓这一战略机遇期，作为一种战略安排，无论从国家还是企业层面，尤其是有社会责任的央企，就不能纯粹从短期的经济利益角度来看待这个问题。”
除了资金难题，电信基础设施建设面临的另一个难题是选址问题，出于对基站辐射的担忧，或产生邻避效应，阻挠基站的建设，这在过去通信基础设施建设中并不少见，在站间距大大缩短的5G时代，这样的问题或将更多。
对此，中国工程院院士邬贺铨向《中国新闻周刊》表示，中国基站的电磁辐射指标其实比欧美还要严格10倍，但老百姓依然会有担心，或许在这一问题上，需要政府多做引导。
“我觉得5G商用最大的前途还是来自于产业，而不是消费，因此在布局上应该优先考虑产业发展潜力大，需求更迫切，或者是产业集群地区，这样有利于更快地获得商业回报。”周剑说。
在获得5G牌照后，中国联通和中国移动都宣布了下一步的建设布局，40个城市将首先开展5G商用，主要是直辖市、省会城市和计划单列市，以及雄安新区、苏州等在国家战略中占据重要地位的城市。
这样是否会导致城市发展间的数字鸿沟，让地区发展更加不均衡？
对此，周剑认为，中国的发展本身就有梯度，并不因为人为因素就能改变。从5G本身的发展来看，5G布局本来就是超前应用的，因此在那些有条件的地方率先突破，对于相对条件较弱的地方而言，可以起到巨大的引领带动作用。而且，创新的过程必然会付出一些代价和风险，等到这些发展较好的城市、地区探索成熟之后，再到相对落后的地方，或许发展的加速度会比第一批更快，经济性更好，这样也符合他们的需求和特点。
4G改变生活，5G改变社会
尽管对于基站建设还有诸多难点，但5G商用的到来，依然给人们的未来带来无限可能。“4G改变生活，5G改变社会”，4G的发展，由此衍生出移动支付、共享经济等各种场景，给中国老百姓的生活带来天翻地覆的变化。
5G具有高带宽、低时延、广连接等优势， 未来将与诸多垂直行业进行深度融合。此前，华为发布《5G时代十大应用场景白皮书》， 探讨最能体现5G能力的十大应用场景分别是云VR/AR、车联网、智能制造、智慧能源、无线医疗、无线家庭娱乐、联网无人机、社交网络、个人AI辅助、智慧城市。
在今年3月的博鳌论坛上，工信部部长苗圩也对5G的场景应用做了一番畅想，认为20%将用于人和人之间通讯，80%可能用于物与物之间通讯，也就是移动物联网领域。
10年前，中国就开始布局物联网，但时至今日依然没有取得突破性进展，5G的到来，是否会成为中国物联网发展的一阵东风？
“物联网的战略方向是对的，只是当时的重点很多放在传感网上了，主要解决的是可感知可连接，但没有通用网络的支持，这种传感都是碎片化的。”周剑说。此外，其他的技术没有跟上，比如数据处理的能力，人工智能技术等，都还是星星之火，在各自领域发力，很难形成燎原之势。而现在各方面条件准备充分，5G的发展阶段又正好切合了整体的发展要求，发展物联网或许正当其时。“但这并不是说技术成熟了，可能仍有一些地方需要努力。”
周剑认为，未来5G商用要形成规模，首先需要国家做好总体的战略布局和引导，尤其是要优化政策环境，支持创新。其次，要确立基本规则，大家共同遵守，一视同仁，避免恶性竞争。
项立刚则将物联网称作智能互联网，是移动互联、智能感应、大数据和智能学习等共同形成的一个新的能力，移动互联是它的基础，没有移动互联，物联网所有的能力就没法发挥出来。
应用场景不足，终端产品还未形成量产规模，5G商用或将在一段时间内面临“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的难题。但项立刚认为并不需要担心这个问题，有了网络就会有人基于网络开展各项业务，不必急于一时。“现阶段，5G能带给大家最直观的体验还是消费者业务，网速增加了，视频不卡了，有了良好的网络体验之后，下一步再开展智能物联技术。”
China's 5G acceleration: 3.1 million jobs are expected to be created within 5 years
June 14, 2019 07:57 Sina Technology Integration
5G speed increase
Source: China News Weekly Reporter He Bin
Issued at 2019.6.17, the total 903th issue of China News Weekly
Just after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that "the 5G commercial license will be issued in the near future", only three days later, this boots will land!
On the morning of June 6, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a basic telecommunications business license to China Telecom Group Co., Ltd., China Mobile Communications Group Co., Ltd., China United Network Communications Group Co., Ltd. and China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd., and approved the operation of four enterprises. The fifth generation of digital cellular mobile communication services."
On the same day, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also revised the "Telecom Service Classification Catalogue (2015 Edition)". Under the category "Basic Telecommunications Service" and "A12 Cellular Mobile Communication Service", the "A12-4 fifth generation number" was added. Cellular mobile communication service "business subclass. According to the description of its specific business, the fifth-generation digital cellular mobile communication service refers to "using voice, data, multimedia communication and other services provided by the fifth-generation digital cellular mobile communication network."
Since then, China has officially entered the first year of 5G commercial use.
Strategic arrangement
Although the layout was very early, it was not until the "13th Five-Year Plan" period that 5G commercials were really put on the agenda.
The “13th Five-Year Plan” proposes “to actively promote the research on the fifth-generation mobile communication (5G) and ultra-broadband key technologies, and launch 5G commercial applications”. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the “Information and Communication Industry Development Plan” (2016- In 2020), it was clearly stated that “to the end of the '13th Five-Year' period, 5G launched commercial services”.
According to the timetable given by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it will enter the 5G pre-commercial phase in 2019 and will be officially commercialized in 2020. Obviously, the move to license the four major operators has made China's 5G commercial business ahead of at least half a year.
In fact, China has already carried out 5G research before the formal issuance of 4G licenses. In February 2013, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly promoted the establishment of the IMT-2020 (5G) promotion group, aiming to aggregate the strength of industry, academia and research in the field of mobile communications, promote the research of the fifth generation of mobile communication technologies, and conduct international exchanges. Cooperation.
Ten months later, China's three major telecom operators received 4G licenses. In the next six years, the three major operators vigorously carried out telecommunications infrastructure construction. In particular, in August 2013, the “Broadband China” strategy issued by the State Council reduced the number of telecommunications blind spots and basically achieved full coverage.
According to the "Statistical Bulletin of the Communications Industry of 2018", in 2018, the total number of mobile communication base stations nationwide reached 6.48 million, of which the total number of 4G base stations reached 3.72 million. As of the end of December, the total number of 4G users reached 1.17 billion, and the penetration rate was close to 84%.
In this process, 5G technology is also maturing. In January 2016, China launched a comprehensive 5G technology R&D test, which was divided into three stages: key technology verification, technical solution verification and system solution verification. In September of the same year, the first phase of the experiment was completed, and seven wireless key technologies such as large-scale antenna, new multi-access, new multi-carrier, and high-band communication, and the performance of four network-critical technologies such as network slicing and mobile edge computing were completed. Functional testing validated the technical feasibility of these key technologies to support Gbps user experience rates, millisecond end-to-end latency, and millions of connections per square kilometer of diverse 5G scenarios.
The second phase of the subsequent test was based on a unified test platform, unified frequency, unified equipment and test specifications, and verified the technical solutions for different application scenarios of 5G mobile Internet and IoT. Huawei, Ericsson, ZTE, Datang, Nokia and Shanghai Bell, Samsung and other companies participated in the test.
To this end, the IMT-2020 (5G) promotion team planned the world's largest 5G test field in Huairou, Beijing, and completed the site planning of 30 stations, which can meet the needs of field single station and networking performance testing. At the same time, the introduction of Spreadtrum, MTK and other chip companies, Keysight, Rohde & Schwarz, Datang Lianyi, Xinghe Highlights and other instrument companies, carried out the industrial chain docking test.
In June 2017, Huawei took the lead in testing. According to reports at the time, in the C-band (frequency from 3.7 to 4.2 GHz) test session, Huawei used the entire 200MHz full bandwidth, through 5G new air interface and large-scale multi-input and multi-output technologies, so that the single-user downlink throughput rate exceeds 6Gbps. The peak of the cell exceeds 18Gbps. In the wireless technology verification process, Huawei has enabled the industry's first miniaturized 5G test terminal to enable a single 5G base station to simultaneously support hundreds of ultra-high-definition 4K video on demand, and play smoothly in the car mobile scene.
On November 15, 2017, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Use of the 3300-3600MHz and 4800-5000MHz Bands in the Fifth Generation Mobile Communication System. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the frequency band use plan for the mid-band 5G system released this time can take into account the basic requirements of system coverage and large capacity, and is the main frequency band for the early deployment of China's 5G system. The formal determination of the 5G spectrum has also made China the first country in the world to release the 5G system for use in the mid-band spectrum.
Soon, the 5G technology R&D test ushered in the third phase of testing. According to Wen Ku, director of the Information and Communication Development Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, this is a key step before 5G achieves the "18-year-old adult." Through this stage of testing, it is expected that the main links of the 5G industry chain will basically reach the pre-commercial level by the end of 2018.
In February 2018, IMT-2020 (5G) promotion team united with Huawei to take the lead in launching the third phase of China's 5G technology R&D test in Beijing Huairou 5G test field, followed by ZTE, Datang, Ericsson, Shanghai Nokia Bell and other systems. Enterprises, Qualcomm, Intel, Ziguang Zhanrui, Haisi and other chip companies, as well as German, Rhodes and Schwarz and other instrument companies participated in the test.
In January 2019, the third phase of the test was completed. The test results show that both the 5G base station and the core network equipment can support non-independent networking and independent networking modes. The main functions are in line with expectations and reach the pre-commercial level. In 2019, 5G enhancement and millimeter wave technology research and development tests will be launched.
In the past 40 years, China's communications industry has experienced the exploration of 1G blank, 2G follow-up, 3G breakthrough, and 4G synchronization. The 5G China has finally begun to “lead” the world from research and development to formal commercial use. Zhou Jian, director of the Information Research and Promotion Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believes that this is an inevitable law and trend.
“In these years, China’s achievements in the IT field, especially in the Internet and 5G communications, are obvious to all. This is due to the country’s open-minded attitude and fault-tolerant mechanism, as well as policy guidance and support. The most crucial thing is to benefit the new generation. The market environment for the development of network technology." Zhou Jian said that in the past, the market was changed to technology, but now China has become the buyer's market, and it is the world's largest single market. Whether it is consumption or industry, its scale is enough to support a new emerging market. The rapid maturity of domain technology.
"There is a good ecological environment, a national policy, and the accumulation of the technical strength of the industry itself. 5G naturally achieves the first breakthrough, which is actually an evolution process from quantitative change to qualitative change." Zhou Jian told China News Weekly With the accumulation of these years, the industrial system is constantly improving, and China itself is in the stage of accelerating development. The 5G, which has already been in the leading position, enters commercialization in advance, which is a process of progress.
The more important reason, in Zhou Jian’s view, is that the world is undergoing a huge transformation, also known as the fourth industrial revolution or information revolution, which may change the basic model of global economic and social development. Rebuild the industrial system and rewrite the existing international industry map and order. It is precisely because of this that countries and economies must make arrangements for 5G and make major arrangements strategically.
In the face of fierce international competition, China is naturally unwilling. "Since the technology is basically mature, there are certain technical reserves, and some explorations have been made in the application. It is necessary to arrange in advance and systematically plan and deploy." Zhou Jian said.
Who will seize the opportunity?
Previously, the China Information and Communication Research Institute predicted that, according to the formal commercialization of 5G in 2020, it is estimated that during the period of 2020~2025, China's 5G development will directly drive the total economic output of 10.6 trillion yuan, directly creating an economic added value of 3.3 trillion yuan. Created 3.1 million direct jobs.
This is undoubtedly a tempting cake – whoever gets the license first will be able to take the lead in this huge market.
At the same time as China's three-phase 5G technology R&D trials, China's three major telecom operators have also started their 5G layout. According to the latest information released by China Unicom, China Unicom has opened a 5G test network in 40 cities in China, and established a 5G application innovation alliance, with more than 240 companies joining. In addition, it has also launched the pilot program to create a new market for 5G applications and create a new future for the 5G industry.
At the licensing ceremony, Yang Jie, Chairman of China Mobile, introduced the company's 5G layout in more detail: As early as 2012, China Mobile launched 5G R&D, around 5G scene requirements definition, core technology research and development, international standards development, and industry. Ecological construction, application business innovation has carried out a lot of work. In the standard setting, lead the completion of the "5G Vision and Requirements" white paper, the proposed 8 5G key performance and efficiency indicators adopted by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), become a global consensus, and lead 32 key standards in the ITU, 3GPP The project has become an important force in the formulation of 5G standards.
In terms of application innovation, China Mobile has established a 5G joint innovation center for the world. At present, it has established 22 open laboratories, bringing together 500 members, and established three industrial research institutes in Xiong'an, Chengdu and Shanghai to cooperate with leading enterprises in key industries. Focusing on 9 vertical industry sectors, forming innovative application solutions and end-to-end solutions, the application cooperation pilot has been launched.
In addition, China Mobile launched 5G network scale trials in five cities including Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Wuhan and Suzhou, and carried out 5G service demonstration test network construction in 12 cities including Beijing, Chongqing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Xiong'an, focusing on mobile telemedicine. 31 application scenarios such as cloud robots, smart factories, smart campuses, smart grids, and high-definition cloud games are used to demonstrate 5G services. After the issuance of the 5G license, China Mobile announced that it will provide 5G services in more than 40 cities by the end of September this year. "Customers do not change cards, and can open 5G services without changing the number."
Relatively speaking, China Telecom started late, and began to participate in the 5G test at the end of 2017. However, many domestic and foreign enterprises have carried out 5G technology experiments and construction of 5 pilot cities in 17 pilot cities, and some breakthrough results have been achieved. At the same time, we have carried out rich 5G application innovation practices with our partners. At present, we have covered ten key vertical application scenarios of government, manufacturing, transportation, logistics, education, medical care, media, police, tourism and environmental protection. 200 homes.
In December 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the 5G system low-frequency test frequency license to China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom. Among them, China Telecom and China Unicom have obtained the test frequency license for the 3500MHz frequency band. China Mobile has obtained the test frequency license for the 2600MHz and 4900MHz frequency bands, which effectively guarantees the frequency resources that the three major operators must use to carry out the 5G system test.
Compared with the three major operators, China Broadcasting and Television does not seem to have launched the 5G layout in advance, but it also “sit and accept” 5G licenses. The reason is intriguing. In this regard, Zhou Jian analyzed that this is to form a more benign competitive ecology in the field of communication. At the same time, as the main force of the three-network convergence (telecom network, radio and television network and the Internet), China Radio and Television also needs a series of mechanism innovations, with the great changes brought about by 5G, or will better promote the integration of the three networks. In addition, radio and television also has certain advantages in spectrum resources, and the broadcasting and TV industry itself is a potential market. Whether it is social life or smart city, it can respond with it. This is also the advantage of China Radio and Television.
China Radio and Television Corporation is the China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd., which was established on April 17, 2014 with a registered capital of 4.5 billion yuan. All of them are funded by the central government, and the Ministry of Finance performs the duties of the investor on behalf of the State Council. On May 5, 2016, China Radio and Television received the “Basic Telecommunications Business License” issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. However, from the current public information, it seems that there has not been a major breakthrough in the telecommunications field.
"In the process of triple play, China Radio and Television has been looking forward to making a difference in the field of mobile communications, setting up a national network company, applying for a 5G license, and doing a lot of work." China's communications industry's well-known observer, Feixiang network founder Xiang Li I just thought that the reason for issuing licenses to China Radio and Television may be because some of the vertical applications in 5G are from video and other needs. "But I personally think that for a public service such as communication, there needs to be funds and talents. , the accumulation of technology and management."
"License is a license, the network is a network, and four companies can't understand that they need to build four huge networks. The three major operators will not change their landscape and will not become the four major operators." Zhang Yunyong, dean of China Unicom Research Institute, believes that China Broadcasting and Television's advantage lies in the bearer of content such as high-definition video. At the business level, collaborative sharing is king, and four companies will be more collaborative to realize the sharing of frequency bands and base station construction.
Many problems
Since the issuance of licenses, 4G has been in China for nearly six years. According to estimates, as of the end of 2017, China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom's three telecom operators on the 4G network construction scale of at least 800 billion yuan, from the overall point of view, the current operator's 4G input costs have not yet recovered. Under this circumstance, if four licensees want to develop 5G rapidly, the construction cost becomes a problem that has to be considered.
How much capital investment does 5G base station construction require? Not long ago, Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei had a description of the construction of 5G base stations when interviewed by the Chinese media, saying that "only a little bit bigger, 20 kilograms, as big as a suitcase with documents", therefore, the installation of 5G base stations does not need Towers and cranes can be mounted on poles, hung on walls, or even placed in sewers.
However, in order to meet the requirements of high traffic density and high peak rate, 5G will adopt a hyper-heterogeneous ultra-dense networking architecture. Previously, there have been predictions in the industry that the 5G small base station spacing is only 50~100 meters, or even smaller, so the number of sites will be several times that of 4G. According to research data from CITIC Jiantou, it is expected that the number of 5G base stations will be twice that of 4G in the future, and the main investment of operators' 5G network construction may reach 1.23 trillion yuan, a 68% increase over 4G investment.
Can be foreseen, deep
