·模拟显示，巴基斯坦为阻止印军进攻，在巴控克什米尔首府引爆一枚10千吨级核弹，将杀死超过3400名平民和数千名印军
·假如巴基斯坦向印度边境城市阿姆里萨尔投射一枚10千吨级的核弹，会造成11万人在短时间内死亡
·如果印度发动报复袭击，向巴第二大城市拉合尔投射12千吨级核弹，将杀死12万人，数百万平民受到核辐射
南方网消息：在接二连三地试射导弹后，巴基斯坦总统穆沙拉夫于5月27日向全国人民发表了长达25分钟的广播讲话，他的口气变得空前强硬：“印度不能既是原告，又是法官。我是一名军人，我不希望爆发战争，但我决不害怕战争。避免战争不能以损害我们的荣誉与尊严为代价。”5月28日，印度国防部对穆沙拉夫的讲话作出反应，认为印度选择的余地越来越小。与此同时，美国和英国政府的高级官员发出警告，印巴之间爆发核战争是可能的。那么，假如核战争真的爆发，将会是一幅怎样的情景呢？为了给这个问题找到答案，《华盛顿时报》记者利用最先进的核战模拟软件进行了推演，结果令人吃惊——
五角大楼研制模拟核战系统
自去年12月印度议会发生恐怖袭击事件后，印度和巴基斯坦这对南亚次大陆上的冤家对头之间的矛盾再度激化，印度指责巴基斯坦政府支持恐怖主义，纵容伊斯兰民兵，让印度深受其害。
迄今已在2000英里长的边境线两侧动员了超过100万大军。印度军方已经公开表示：不惜一战。
5月24日，美国国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德在接受有线新闻网(CNN)采访时也预言：“如果印巴之间爆发核战争，那么会有数百万人丧生。”
为了准确地预估核生化袭击可能造成的后果，五角大楼的减少防御威胁局的军事分析专家启用了最先进的核战争电脑模拟系统———后果评估工具包(CATS)。这是五角大楼特意委托电脑专家和军事专家联合为印巴局势而设计的模拟软件，可以模拟不同等级的印巴核战争。
这套模拟系统的出炉立即引起了《华盛顿时报》的注意，该报决心在第一时间，搞清楚这套软件的可靠性，并从中了解印巴核战争的可怕后果。
发射方：巴基斯坦核弹：10千吨级地点：巴控克什米尔首府穆扎法拉巴德伤亡：数千印度军队、3400名平民当场死亡
对美国来说，通过CATS系统的分析，五角大楼就可能清楚地了解爆发核生化战后，包括战略地点、公共设施在内的重要目标可能受到的破坏。
模拟显示，巴基斯坦引爆的是一枚10千吨级的核弹(美国当年投在广岛的那枚核弹估计当量为18千吨)，以阻止印军攻占巴控克什米尔首府穆扎法拉巴德。时报记者之所以选穆扎法拉巴德为模拟城市，是因为印度情报部门指控，这里是伊斯兰激进民兵的训练和物资供应基地。穆扎法拉巴德并不是个大都市，但即使依据1998年的人口统计数字，CATS系统也预测出爆炸会造成超过3400名平民当场死亡，这还不包括作为核打击目标的数千名印度军队。
核弹爆炸后，放射性尘埃随风飘到印控克什米尔地区大约18英里远的地方，又会对该地区29000名居民构成某种程度的生命威胁。
山姆·加迪尼尔是一名已经退役的美国空军上校，目前是美军空战学院和国防大学的客座教授，他表示，模拟印巴战争的演习一开始都是用类似的方案，因为印度方面多次声称可能会进行一场有限度的“流鼻血”战争，也就是对巴基斯坦境内被印方认为在训练伊斯兰民兵的军事基地进行外科手术式的打击。如果印方果真采取这样的冒险行动，巴基斯坦肯定会作出强烈反应。在己方领土上引爆核装备，容易让人产生错觉，受侵国家会声称他们是在自卫，这样他们就会获得道义的支持。
发射方：巴基斯坦核弹：10千吨级地点：印度边境重镇阿姆里萨尔伤亡：11万人短时间内死亡，数万平民受到致命核辐射
在模拟中，时报记者发现即使是印巴双方各向对方一座城市投入核弹，死亡人数也会急剧增加。假如巴基斯坦向印度重要的边境城市阿姆里萨尔投射一枚10千吨级的核弹，会造成一个直径达1.68英里的爆炸区，会造成112280人在短时间内死亡，另外还有数万人受到致命的核辐射。
发射方：印度核弹：10千吨级地点：巴基斯坦的第二大城市拉合尔伤亡：12万人短时间内死亡，数百万平民受到致命核辐射
拉合尔是巴基斯坦的第二大城市，人口500万，它是联系巴基斯坦南部和北部的重要纽带。如果印度发动报复袭击，向这座城市投射12千吨级的核弹，那么后果更加惊人，不仅会造成直径1.75英里的爆炸区，致使122000人死亡，还会形成一条1英里宽、6.3英里长的非常危险的辐射尘埃区，该区的死亡率会达到90%左右。如果风力变大，还会有数百万平民受到致命的核辐射威胁。
发射方：印度、巴基斯坦核弹：43千吨当量的氢弹地点：双方首都、各大城市伤亡：最血腥核战，死伤不计其数
最血腥的模拟方案是印巴爆发全面核战争，双方的首都和其它大都市成为打击目标。仅以印度为例，印度军方公开声称，他们现在已经拥有威力更加强大的氢弹，也是目前印度军火中威力最大的武器。CATS系统模拟了一枚43千吨当量的氢弹的引爆，打击目标是巴基斯坦的首都伊斯兰堡，这座城市拥有90万人口，距离印度边界不到60英里。
据权威的《简氏防务周刊—战略武器系统》对巴基斯坦核武器的估计，巴至少拥有25个到50个核弹头。美国情报部门证实的巴基斯坦进行的最大的一次核试验的当量是6千吨。
各方对印巴双方的核实力有不同的说法，但毫无疑问的是，这两个国家已经加入到“核俱乐部”，由于这两个国家宿怨很深，虽然双方都声称不会首先向对方进行核袭击，可是，百万大军在边境集结，而且对对方的炮击最近一直没有停止过，如果国际社会不积极进行调停，那么印巴爆发战争，甚至核战争，也决非没有可能。(编辑：大耳牛)
https://m.sohu.com/a/344817695_414734/?pvid=000115_3w_a
5000万人丧生！外媒预测印巴打核战结果：人类将进入新冰河时代
大国策10-03 08:05
随着克什米尔问题的持续发酵，印度与巴基斯坦两国之间的战争风险骤然增大。印巴两国都早已在边境地带大举增兵，摆出了一副不惜发动战争的架势。更为严重的是，印巴这对邻国都是拥核国家，刚有媒体对战争走向作出悲观预测，如果战争一旦打响，到了不可收拾之际，双方极有可能进行核战争，届时有可能危及整个全人类的生存。
10月2日，印度《斯坦时报》报道称，据一篇最新发表在《科学进展》杂志上的研究论文显示，就印度与巴基斯坦爆发核战争的模拟研究，如果印巴之间爆发核战争，两国至少会造成5000万人丧生，又因核武器爆炸所产生的核污染，极有可能让全球遭受到长达十年之久的全球大气灾难的打击。论文里面指出，只要印度和巴基斯坦分别使用了100和150枚战略核武器，就必然会释放出最多至3600万吨的烟尘，然后这些烟尘会上升到高层大气中，遮挡住太阳辐射。如此一来，这势必导致能传到地球表面的太阳光下降20％到35％，使地球气温冷却2至5摄氏度。
该论文作者之一、罗格斯大学教授艾伦·罗伯克指出，以上对于核战争对地球气温的危害还只会是初始阶段。接着还有诸如燃烧的烟雾会引发严重的短期气候扰动，让气温下降到自上一个冰河世纪中期以来地球上从未见过的温度。紧接着还会因全球减少30％的降水，臭氧层的消耗、气温的骤降等因素，使植物在地球上大面积死亡，然后会因此而再次对地球气候带来灾难性的打击。论文另一名作者、大学教授欧文·B·图恩表示，这样的气候灾难会对欧亚大陆及北美的农作物种植，以及印度洋、太平洋、大西洋区的渔业造成毁灭性打击。通过这一系列的摧残之后，地球还真是有可能回到一个新冰河时代。
报道指出，如这篇论文中所言，印巴两国之间的核战争的风险的确已经来临。最近几周以来，巴基斯坦总理伊姆兰·汉已经释放出了南亚次大陆爆发核战争的可能。尤其在上周，伊姆兰·汉就在联合国大会上对参会各国提出了严厉警告，称因克什米尔问题极有可能引发印巴两国之间爆发核战争。其实在9月中旬，伊姆兰·汉就表示过这样的警告。据英国《卫报》网站9月15日披露，伊姆兰·汉在接受电视台记者采访时警告称，巴基斯坦与印度在克什米尔问题上的争端，已经成为了一个可能升级为一场核战争的引爆点。
当时伊姆兰·汉亲口表示，“我曾明确说过，如果两个拥有核武器的国家打一场常规战争，很有可能最终会发展成核战争。” 据悉他指出，尽管巴基斯坦不一定会在常规战争中输给印度，如今年2月底的局部空战就以巴方的胜利而告终。但巴基斯坦与印度之间的综合国力差距过大，印度的的经济实力几乎是我们的10倍，与此对应的是在常规武器装备方面，印巴两国的差距也在越来越大。因此，“当一个拥核国家被逼到最后，直至死亡，将是有后果的……会动用核武器对印度进行反击。”
另外据悉，此前巴基斯坦外交部长库雷希也公开指出，随着当前局势的恶化，可能会在印巴这对拥有核武器的邻国之间引发一场意外战争。就在此次采访之中，当记者提及此事时，伊姆兰·汉也表示同意库雷希的观点。其实在更早之前，印度还先对巴基斯坦释放出过核战争威胁。早在8月16日，印度防长辛格在一处曾经进行过核试验的军事地点扬言，“印度虽严格遵守‘不首先使用（核武器）’的政策，但未来发生的事情取决于具体情况。” 很明显，印度不排除动用核武器。
因克什米尔领土主权问题，印巴两国已经结下了解不开的仇恨。今年8月初随着印度宣布取消克什米尔地区特殊地位，强行攫取该地区主权的野心已昭然若揭，致使两国在边境加紧战备，甚至已经发生了一系列流血冲突。如今印巴两国都已先后露出不惜使用核武器来解决克什米尔争端的意向。看来，双方还真有可能就此打开核恶魔的大门，在核战争打响之后，两国5000万人丧生于核弹之下，继而让全球进入新一个冰河时代。
Http://www.cctv.com/special/910/-1/70402.html
The Pentagon simulates the nuclear war between India and Pakistan. See the scene of the nuclear bomb explosion. December 3, 10:46 
 · The simulation shows that in order to prevent the Indian attack, Pakistan will detonate a 10 kiloton nuclear bomb in the capital of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, killing more than 3,400 civilians and thousands of Indian troops.
· If Pakistan projects a 10 kiloton nuclear bomb to the Indian border city of Amris, it will cause 110,000 people to die in a short time.
· If India launches revenge attacks, projecting a 12-kilometer-class nuclear bomb into Lahore, the second largest city in Pakistan, will kill 120,000 people and millions of civilians will be exposed to nuclear radiation.
Southern Network News: After testing missiles one after another, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf delivered a 25-minute radio speech to the people of the country on May 27th. His tone became unprecedentedly tough: "India cannot be both a plaintiff and a Judge. I am a soldier. I don't want to break out of war, but I am not afraid of war. Avoiding war cannot be at the expense of our honour and dignity." On May 28, the Indian Defense Ministry made a speech to Musharraf. The reaction is that the choice for India is getting smaller and smaller. At the same time, senior officials of the US and British governments issued a warning that a nuclear war between India and Pakistan is possible. So, what would happen if a nuclear war really broke out? In order to find the answer to this question, the "Washington Times" reporter used the most advanced nuclear warfare simulation software to make a debut, the results are surprising -
Pentagon develops a simulated nuclear warfare system
Since the terrorist attacks in the Indian parliament in December last year, the contradiction between India and Pakistan on the South Asian subcontinent has intensified. India accuses the Pakistani government of supporting terrorism and condoning Islamic militia. India has suffered.
To date, more than 1 million troops have been mobilized on both sides of the 2,000-mile border. The Indian military has publicly stated that it will not hesitate to fight.
On May 24, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld also predicted in an interview with CNN: "If there is a nuclear war between India and Pakistan, millions of people will die."
In order to accurately predict the possible consequences of nuclear and biochemical attacks, the Pentagon's Defense Analysis Threats' military analysis experts have enabled the most advanced nuclear war computer simulation system, the Consensus Assessment Toolkit (CATS). This is the simulation software specially designed by the Pentagon to entrust computer experts and military experts to jointly develop the situation in India and Pakistan. It can simulate different levels of the India-Pakistan nuclear war.
The release of the simulation system immediately caught the attention of the Washington Times, which was determined to understand the reliability of the software and understand the terrible consequences of the nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
Launcher: Pakistani nuclear bomb: 10 kilotons Location: Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, killed or injured: thousands of Indian troops and 3,400 civilians died on the spot
For the United States, through the analysis of the CATS system, the Pentagon may have a clear understanding of the possible damage to important targets including strategic locations and public facilities after the outbreak of nuclear and biochemical warfare.
The simulation shows that Pakistan detonated a nuclear bomb of 10 kilotons (the US nuclear bomb that was invested in Hiroshima was estimated to have an equivalent weight of 18 kilotons) to prevent the Indian army from capturing Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. The Times reporter chose Muzaffarabad as a model city because the Indian intelligence department accused it of being a training and material supply base for Islamic radical militia. Muzaffarabad is not a metropolis, but even according to the 1998 demographics, the CATS system predicts that the explosion will kill more than 3,400 civilians on the spot, which does not include thousands of Indian troops as targets for nuclear strikes. .
After the nuclear bomb explosion, radioactive dust drifted to the Indian-controlled Kashmir area about 18 miles away, posing a certain threat to the 29,000 residents of the area.
Sam Gardiner is a retired US Air Force colonel. He is currently a visiting professor at the US Air Combat Academy and the National Defense University. He said that the exercises for simulating the India-Pakistan war began with similar programs because of the Indian It was claimed that there may be a limited "noosebleed" war, that is, a surgical strike against Pakistani military bases believed to be training Islamic militia in Pakistan. If the Indian side really takes such an adventurous action, Pakistan will definitely react strongly. Detonating nuclear equipment on one's own territory is easy to create illusions, and the invaded countries will claim that they are self-defending, so that they will receive moral support.
Launcher: Pakistani nuclear bomb: 10 kilotons Location: Amishsar, a major border town in India: 110,000 people died in a short period of time, and tens of thousands of civilians were killed by deadly nuclear radiation
In the simulation, the Times reporter found that even if both India and Pakistan each put a nuclear bomb into the other city, the death toll would increase dramatically. If Pakistan projects a 10 kiloton nuclear bomb into Amritsar, India's important border city, it will create an explosion zone with a diameter of 1.68 miles, killing 112,280 people in a short time, and tens of thousands of people. Suffering from deadly nuclear radiation.
Launcher: Indian nuclear bomb: 10 kilotons Location: Lahore casualties in Pakistan's second largest city: 120,000 people died in a short period of time, millions of civilians were killed by deadly nuclear radiation
Lahore is Pakistan's second largest city with a population of 5 million. It is an important link between southern and northern Pakistan. If India launches a revenge attack and projects a 12-ton nuclear bomb into the city, the consequences will be even more alarming, not only causing an explosion zone of 1.75 miles in diameter, killing 122,000 people and forming a 1 mile wide, 6.3 mile long In the very dangerous area of radiation dust, the death rate in this area will reach about 90%. If the wind gets bigger, millions of civilians will be threatened by deadly nuclear radiation.
Launcher: India, Pakistan nuclear bomb: 43 kiloton equivalent of hydrogen bomb Location: Both sides of the capital, major cities and cities casualties: the most bloody nuclear war, countless deaths and injuries
The bloodiest simulation program is a full-scale nuclear war in India and Pakistan, and the capital and other metropolises of both sides have become targets. In India alone, the Indian military has publicly stated that they now have more powerful hydrogen bombs and are the most powerful weapons in Indian arms. The CATS system simulates the detonation of a 43-tonne-equivalent hydrogen bomb, targeting Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. The city has a population of 900,000 and is less than 60 miles from the Indian border.
According to the authoritative "Jane's Defense Weekly - Strategic Weapons System" estimates of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, Pakistan has at least 25 to 50 nuclear warheads. The equivalent of the largest nuclear test conducted by Pakistan by the US intelligence agency is 6,000 tons.
The parties have different opinions on the verification power of India and Pakistan, but there is no doubt that these two countries have joined the "nuclear club" because the two countries have deep grievances, although both sides claim that they will not The other side carried out a nuclear attack. However, the millions of troops gathered at the border, and the shelling of the other side has not stopped. Recently, if the international community does not actively mediate, then the war between India and Pakistan, and even nuclear war, is by no means impossible. (Edit: Big Ears)
Https://m.sohu.com/a/344817695_414734/?pvid=000115_3w_a
50 million people lost their lives! Foreign media predicts the results of the nuclear war between India and Pakistan: humanity will enter the new ice age

Big country policy 10-03 08:05

As the Kashmir issue continues to ferment, the risk of war between India and Pakistan has suddenly increased. Both India and Pakistan have already increased their troops in the border areas, posing a posture that does not hesitate to wage war. What is more serious is that India and Pakistan are all nuclear-armed countries in neighboring countries. The media has just made a pessimistic forecast of the war. If the war is over, it will be impossible for the two sides to carry out nuclear wars. Endanger the survival of the entire human race.
On October 2, the Indian "Stan Times" reported that according to a research paper published in the "Scientific Progress" magazine, a simulation study on the outbreak of nuclear war between India and Pakistan, if a nuclear war broke out between India and Pakistan, At least 50 million people will be killed in the two countries, and nuclear pollution caused by nuclear weapons explosions will most likely hit the world for a decade-long global atmospheric disaster. The paper points out that as long as India and Pakistan use 100 and 150 strategic nuclear weapons respectively, it will inevitably release up to 36 million tons of soot, which will then rise to the upper atmosphere and block solar radiation. As a result, this will inevitably lead to a 20% to 35% drop in sunlight that can reach the Earth's surface, cooling the Earth's temperature by 2 to 5 degrees Celsius.
One of the authors of the paper, Alan Robb, a professor at Rutgers University, pointed out that the above-mentioned damage to the Earth's temperature from nuclear war will only be the initial stage. Then there are smog such as burning that can cause severe short-term climate disturbances that cause the temperature to drop to temperatures that have never been seen on Earth since the last ice age. Then, due to the global reduction of 30% precipitation, the consumption of the ozone layer, and the sudden drop in temperature, the plants will die on a large area on the earth, and then it will once again bring a catastrophic impact on the earth's climate. Owen B. Thun, another author of the paper and a university professor, said that such a catastrophic catastrophe would have a devastating impact on crop cultivation in Eurasia and North America, as well as in the Indian Ocean, Pacific and Atlantic regions. After this series of ravages, the earth is really likely to return to a new ice age.
The report pointed out that as stated in this paper, the risk of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan has indeed arrived. In recent weeks, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Han has released the possibility of a nuclear war in the South Asian subcontinent. Especially last week, Imran Han made a severe warning to the participating countries at the UN General Assembly, saying that the Kashmir issue is very likely to trigger a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. In fact, in mid-September, Imran Han expressed such a warning. According to the British "Guardian" website disclosed on September 15, Imran Han warned in an interview with TV reporters that the dispute between Pakistan and India on the Kashmir issue has become a detonation that could be upgraded to a nuclear war. point.
At that time, Imran Han said, "I have made it clear that if two countries with nuclear weapons fight a conventional war, it is very likely that they will eventually develop into a nuclear war." It is reported that although Pakistan does not necessarily In the conventional war, it was lost to India. For example, the partial air battle at the end of February this year ended with the victory of the Palestinian side. However, the overall national strength gap between Pakistan and India is too large. India's economic strength is almost 10 times that of ours. Correspondingly, in terms of conventional weapons and equipment, the gap between India and Pakistan is also growing. Therefore, "When a nuclear-armed country is forced to the end until death, there will be consequences... It will use nuclear weapons to counter India."
It is also reported that Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi also publicly pointed out that as the current situation deteriorates, an unexpected war may be triggered between India and Pakistan, a neighboring country with nuclear weapons. In this interview, when the reporter mentioned the matter, Imran Han also agreed with Qureshi's point of view. In fact, earlier, India also first released a nuclear war threat to Pakistan. As early as August 16, Indian Defense Minister Singh threatened at a military site that had conducted nuclear tests. "India strictly abides by the policy of 'no first use (nuclear weapon)', but what happens in the future depends on the specific situation. It is clear that India does not rule out the use of nuclear weapons.
Due to the territorial sovereignty of Kashmir, India and Pakistan have already established hatred that cannot be understood. In early August this year, with the announcement of India’s abolition of the special status of the Kashmir region, the ambition to forcibly seize the sovereignty of the region has become apparent, resulting in an intensified readiness between the two countries at the border and even a series of bloody conflicts. Both India and Pakistan have now shown their intention to use nuclear weapons to resolve the Kashmir dispute. It seems that the two sides are really likely to open the door to the nuclear devil. After the nuclear war started, 50 million people in the two countries were killed under the nuclear bomb, and then the world entered a new era of ice.
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‘It will be quick & dirty’: Standoff with India may spark NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON, Pakistani Kashmir chief says
