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Dear MR Yaw,
Welcome to Tampines! Hope you would be leading the team personally to contest in Tampines during the next GE!<abbr title="Sunday, November 20, 2011 at 11:43am" data-date="Sat, 19 Nov 2011 19:43:27 -0800" class="timestamp livetimestamp">6 hours ago</abbr> ·
http://www.facebook.com/yawshinleong
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If WP contest in Tampines there is a higher chance of winning as compared to NSP. I feel that NSP is a let down during the last election as many have felt that NSP was not around. NSP basically give the nut Mah Bow Tan a free ride in his election win. Singaporeans cant afford another NSP no show again.
The only NSP candidate that did well was Nicole. Maybe WP and NSP can send a combine team for Marine Parade however I doubt that will work as WP is quite strict and disciplined.
Maybe NSP can concentrate on the West. Leave Marine Parade, East Coast and Tampinese to WP. at least there is a higher chance of winning and denying PAP the 2/3 majority.
It is strange that the thread starter actually thinks that my comment is a "Challenge" to Mr. Yaw!
Well, I guess different people will have different perception towards such simple words.
But I truly mean it. WP should not repeat what it did last GE, elbows its way into Moulmein Kallang and even risking a 3 corner fight but in the end, send in a team which up till now, hardly anybody know who they are (well, maybe with exception of Rahizan).
Moulmein Kallang, as a 4 seat GRC, is vulnerable to fall, especially so when Yaacob who has failed in controlling the floods and Lui TY who is not that popular. I am confident that if NSP Tony and Hazel led a team to MK, they could at least perform much better or even has the chance of winning. Basically it means that WP has basically saved Yaacob and preventing other opposition party NSP of putting up a better performance.
Understandably, that is for WP's "party interests" but such narrow consideration is actually not helpful to the greater aim of enhancing democratic development in Singapore. It is regrettable that such party interests are not in line with the overall National interest of faster political democratic development.
I have stated prior to GE that if WP is to put up their top team to contest in MK, I would have gladly concede to them MK without any grudges and with all blessings. But I am truly disappointed when they sent their weakest GRC team there. It is really like putting up tissue to chope place in hawker centre.
Similarly for the next GE. I hate to see 3 corner fights for next GE just because of some "party interests" which may not be aligned to the greater National interests of depriving PAP the two third majority. If WP is truly interested in Tampines for next GE, I hope that they will not just play play only because this GRC has potential to fall.
If WP is committed to send a respectably strong team, preferably with one or even two of the present WP MPs leading their team, I would support them with all my blessings. But if they are going to do the same thing that they did in last GE, merely making use of such fertile ground for "training" of their weakest team, please lah, how could I ever give them my full blessings?
Thus, my comment is sincere; I really hope Mr Yaw will lead the WP team to Tampines next time round.
Goh Meng Seng
I have said before, the swing in Tampines is above national average. Jumping from merely 31% to nearly 43%. I don't think WP's side has any GRC recording more than 12% swing at all. (Joo Chiat is the only abnormally to record 15% swing) To expect NSP to get 20% swing in Tampines to record a win is unreasonably unrealistic.
A nearly 43% is "no show", then WP's many 41% would be what show?
I have said before, the swing in Tampines is above national average. Jumping from merely 31% to nearly 43%. I don't think WP's side has any GRC recording more than 12% swing at all. (Joo Chiat is the only abnormally to record 15% swing) To expect NSP to get 20% swing in Tampines to record a win is unreasonably unrealistic.
If the general swing on the ground is more than 20% and NSP under perform in Tampines, then I would concede that my team's showing is really lousy. However, this is not the case.
Goh Meng Seng
TOC said:You contested Sembawang GRC under the SDP banner in the May General Elections. And even though your team eventually lost to the PAP, it still caused the highest vote swing percentage-wise (12.8%). What do you think could account for such a huge swing?
Dr James Gomez said:It shows that we have a lot of resonance with the voters there in Sembawang. And I think it’s something to build on. At a personal level, I also will be taking the next month to reflect more on the Sembawang results and perhaps write up something. I’m not sure at this stage whether it’ll be an article, essay or even a small book. But I’m certainly beginning to look into understanding the significance of the results. Because nearly 50,000 people voted for the SDP and the Sembawang voters represent almost half of all the votes that SDP got. That means Sembawang votes are equal to Holland-Bukit Timah, Yuhua and Bukit Panjang combined. So that is quite a significant amount. Because it gives you a nearly 30% swing. Never in the history of the electoral division of Sembawang has there been that huge a sway, with that large number of voters. So I would say in that sense that there is a ‘Sembawang spring’ that you can draw from the analogy.
Joo Chiat was a disappointment. I saw how good JJ and his EA (you know who) was on the ground. I was expecting a win.
We must look at things in perspective. CCK is the last minute switch and in comparison, we have plough the ground in MK much longer with more resources thrown in as compared to CCK.
Just in terms of newspaper sales, we have visited MK aka Jalan Besar more often than CCK. Thus, with some common sense, it would natural for NSP to choose MK. Well, turn it around, how about asking WP to go to Jurong? or even CCK? Would WP want to go?
MK has the strongest MP Lily Neo plus Heng CH taken out. It is definitely a softer target.
Goh Meng Seng
We must look at things in perspective. CCK is the last minute switch and in comparison, we have plough the ground in MK much longer with more resources thrown in as compared to CCK.
Just in terms of newspaper sales, we have visited MK aka Jalan Besar more often than CCK. Thus, with some common sense, it would natural for NSP to choose MK. Well, turn it around, how about asking WP to go to Jurong? or even CCK? Would WP want to go?
MK has the strongest MP Lily Neo plus Heng CH taken out. It is definitely a softer target.
Goh Meng Seng
I guess you have just hit yourself on the toe. YSL got his training in AMK, not exactly a fertile ground! AMK was available or even Marine Parade which is JUST NEXT TO Aljunied and East Coast was available. So why not having that as the most convenient and LOGICAL training ground?
Goh Meng Seng
I live here and I certainly know where you grievance is coming from. I've seen Seb and Steve and NSP members around here over past five years. LTK, Sylvia and WP members too. Honest to you and to myself, I should say 50:50. Less than a year before GE, Yaacob brought LKY down here. PAP isn't sleeping either.
Statistically speaking, vote swing is generally evenly spread. This is due to many reasons and one of them is the evenly spread of all races due to HDB Ethnic quota. i.e. PAP learned their lesson in the 80s.
Places like Yishun GRC, also started with low base what. Apparently, even with 30 plus base, WP only managed to get a less than 8% vote swing in Yishun GRC. East Coast also has a base of 30 plus, 36% to be exact. Thus the swing is less than 9%.
Moulmein Kallang which three quarters are from previous Jalan Besar, has a low base of 31% as well but the swing is also 10%.
Aljunied though in the 40s could also get a swing of about 10% as well. Be it MK with base of 31% or Aljunied with 44%, both gets the same swing of 10%. Thus there is really no excuse lah.
I think we should look at things in an objective perspective. Statistics is actually neutral but only people try to lie through it.
Goh Meng Seng
Even when both parties have equal efforts (which I disagree actually) in MK, then the fair thing is to see which party could commit a team with better candidates.
That is actually my point. As I have said, I would give my full blessings to WP if it send Sylvia or LTK or even CSM leading a team to MK. YSL also barely acceptable. But no, that wasn't the case.
Goh Meng Seng