GE 2016/15 speculation

[yenwei]

Wonder which constituencies will be contested. Definitely we know that PAP will contest all seats. :(

GRCs
- Aljunied (WP)
- Ang Mo Kio (NSP?)
- Bishan-Toa Payoh (SPP)
- Chua Chu Kang (NSP)
- East Coast (WP)
- Holland-Bukit Timah (SDP)
- Jurong GRC (NSP & SDP?)
- Marine Parade (NSP)
- Moulmein-Kallang (?)
- Nee Soon (WP)
- Pasir Ris-Punggol (WP? & SDA)
- Sembawang GRC (SDP)
- Tampines (NSP & WP?)
- Tanjong Pagar (SDP?)
- West Coast (RP)

 

[tanwahp]

My take:

- Aljunied (WP)
- Ang Mo Kio (RP)
- Bishan-Toa Payoh (SPP)
- Chua Chu Kang (NSP)
- East Coast (WP)
- Holland-Bukit Timah (SDP)
- Jurong GRC (NSP)
- Marine Parade (NSP)
- Moulmein-Kallang (WP)
- Nee Soon (WP)
- Pasir Ris-Punggol (SDA)
- Sembawang GRC (SDP)
- Tampines (WP)
- Tanjong Pagar (DPP)
- West Coast (RP)

 

[yenwei]

SMCs (Parties keen to be interested/ Witnessed walking in the area)
- Bukit Panjang (SDP)
- Hong Kah North (?)
- Hougang (WP)
- Joo Chiat (WP)
- Mountbatten (NSP)
- Pioneer (?)
- Potong Pasir (SPP)
- Punggol East (SDA & WP)
- Radin Mas (?)
- Sengkang West (SDA & WP)
- Whampoa (?)
- Yuhua (NSP & SDP)

Any clarifications or any suggestions, feel free to add yours.

 

[zhihau]

if the old fart konks out in 2014, i wouldn't be surprised if an election is called there after in the same year :p:p:p

 

[winnipegjets]

Martial law will be declared in 2016 if the PAP thinks it will lose the election.

 

[zhihau]

Martial law will be declared in 2016 if the PAP thinks it will lose the election.

would be a sight to behold. imagine Singapore Spring :p:p:p

 

[tanwahp]

SMCs (Parties keen to be interested/ Witnessed walking in the area)
- Bukit Panjang (SDP)
- Hong Kah North (?)
- Hougang (WP)
- Joo Chiat (WP)
- Mountbatten (NSP)
- Pioneer (?)
- Potong Pasir (SPP)
- Punggol East (SDA & WP)
- Radin Mas (?)
- Sengkang West (SDA & WP)
- Whampoa (?)
- Yuhua (NSP & SDP)

Any clarifications or any suggestions, feel free to add yours.

SMCs are more dynamic (higher interest and competition, appearing from and disappearing) so I will not hazard any guess.

 

[yenwei]

PAP MPs/Ministers that are likely to retire/leave?
- Emeritus SM Goh
- Former PM/MM Lee Kuan Yew
- Mah Bow Tan
- Minister Lim Swee Say
- Wong Kan Seng
- Charles Chong
- Lee Bee Wah
- Sam Tan
- Minister K Shanmugam
- Seng Han Thong
- Minister Lim Hng Kiang
- Inderjit Singh
- Halimah Yacob
- Minister Teo Chee Hean
- Hawazi Daipi
- Lily Neo
- Raymond Lim
- Cedric Foo

Feel free to discuss or add more if you want to.

 

[PoliticalDialogue]

PAP MPs/Ministers that are likely to retire/leave?
- Emeritus SM Goh
- Former PM/MM Lee Kuan Yew
- Mah Bow Tan
- Minister Lim Swee Say
- Wong Kan Seng
- Charles Chong
- Lee Bee Wah
- Sam Tan
- Minister K Shanmugam
- Seng Han Thong
- Minister Lim Hng Kiang
- Inderjit Singh
- Halimah Yacob
- Minister Teo Chee Hean
- Hawazi Daipi
- Lily Neo
- Raymond Lim
- Cedric Foo

Feel free to discuss or add more if you want to.

At this stage I cannot see reasons for any of the highlighted leaving/retiring. Maybe you have reasons for them leaving/retiring.
But I see them being around till 2020.

 

[jw5]

At this stage I cannot see reasons for any of the highlighted leaving/retiring. Maybe you have reasons for them leaving/retiring.
But I see them being around till 2020.

Oh, log back in already.
Will Khaw run this time?

 

[tanwahp]

These 10 will stand the highest chance of not running in 2016. There should be around 5 more at least.

Lee Kuan Yew
Goh Chok Tong
Lim Hng Kiang
Mah Bow Tan
Wong Kan Seng
Charles Chong
Hawazi Daipi
Irene Ng
Lily Neo
Seng Han Thong

 

[PoliticalDialogue]

Oh, log back in already.
Will Khaw run this time?

It is very possible he will run, but then as was the case with MBT, WKS and RL, it would be announced just after the next GE that he will step down as minister and move to the backbench. (The departure of the 3 plus GCT and LKY just after GE2011 set the template, i.e., precedence, for such an exercise). I also see that as possibly for LHK.

Those who are looking for a large turnover of PAP MPs before the next GE might not be correct. I say that because suitable replacements, i.e., a large new cohort of heavyweight PAP candidates, might not materialise. PAP can get any number of candidates, but suitable, heavyweight personalities might not answer the party's call this time round.

Incidentally, KBW would be an electoral liability in most places except in Sembawang where the opposition in the form of SDP cannot make a dent there.

 

[jw5]

It is very possible he will run, but then as was the case with MBT, WKS and RL, it would be announced just after the next GE that he will step down as minister and move to the backbench. (The departure of the 3 plus GCT and LKY just after GE2011 set the template, i.e., precedence, for such an exercise). I also see that as possibly for LHK.

Those who are looking for a large turnover of PAP MPs before the next GE might not be correct. I say that because suitable replacements, i.e., a large new cohort of heavyweight PAP candidates, might not materialise. PAP can get any number of candidates, but suitable, heavyweight personalities might not answer the party's call this time round.

Incidentally, KBH would be an electoral liability in most places except in Sembawang where the opposition in the form of SDP cannot make a dent there.

Oh, thanks for the reply, good points.

Fantastic term - "heavyweight".

 

[steffychun]

LKY to retire? No chance unless he dies before then.

 

[GOD IS MY DOG]

WP should contest wherever RP is contesting........RP basically macam like RIP liao............even if WP can't win in those 3-corner fights.......in 2021, even more voters will swing from RP to WP................RP totally irrelevant liao

 

[wwabbit]

WP should contest wherever RP is contesting........RP basically macam like RIP liao............even if WP can't win in those 3-corner fights.......in 2021, even more voters will swing from RP to WP................RP totally irrelevant liao

We can be certain that WP will be expanding and looking to compete in more than just the 23 seats from GE2011, but I think they will still mainly stick to the East Side, possibly taking over Pasir Ris GRC and Tampinese GRC. If they are really aggressive they may even go into Bishan Toa Payoh, Ang Mo Kio or Marine Parade.

We can expect to see our first 3-corner fights in a GRC in GE2016

 

[The_Hypocrite]

He is already retired. Seldom attend parleement n for.decades never go mps..the issue is pap wont let anyone else contest TP. So might walk over again.

LKY to retire? No chance unless he dies before then.

 

[HTOLAS]

Does anyone know the minimum attendance in Parliament required to remain an MP?

He is already retired. Seldom attend parleement n for.decades never go mps..the issue is pap wont let anyone else contest TP. So might walk over again.

 

[steffychun]

Does anyone know the minimum attendance in Parliament required to remain an MP?

He's not retired until he's six feet under

 

[steffychun]

We can be certain that WP will be expanding and looking to compete in more than just the 23 seats from GE2011, but I think they will still mainly stick to the East Side, possibly taking over Pasir Ris GRC and Tampinese GRC. If they are really aggressive they may even go into Bishan Toa Payoh, Ang Mo Kio or Marine Parade.

We can expect to see our first 3-corner fights in a GRC in GE2016

SDP will take on WP GRCs...