Facts regarding Influenza in Singapore

[Thick Face Black Heart]

You can't base your argument on "I believe". You have to base it on the stats that are available for your to work with.

I have worked out, based on the stats that everyone is using to justify the actions taken, that the mortality rate for Covid-19 is 0.06% but of course "I believe" it is actually a lot lower.

The general consensus regarding the mortality rate of a flu is 0.1% so that makes flu just as deadly as Covid-19.

It is a matter of public record in sg that many were infected by h1n1. I didn't pull any number out of thin air. Wherever hundred or two hundred or five hundred thousand, I don't know, but it would not be an exaggeration at all.

On the other hand your 0.06 percent fatality rate for Wuhan covid 19 is far from demonstrated. There is in fact no data supporting that

 

[Leongsam]

It is a matter of public record in sg that many were infected by h1n1. I didn't pull any number out of thin air. Wherever hundred or two hundred or five hundred thousand, I don't know, but it would not be an exaggeration at all.

On the other hand your 0.06 percent fatality rate for Wuhan covid 19 is far from demonstrated. There is in fact no data supporting that

I already calculated it based upon the data that is being used to formulate policy to fight the infection. Instead of just making general statements show me where in the calculation I have made a mistake.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

I already calculated it based upon the data that is being used to formulate policy to fight the infection. Instead of just making general statements show me where in the calculation I have made a mistake.

What data set did you use?

 

[nayr69sg]

It killed 26 individuals in Singapore and you consider it mild? Covid-19 has only killed 6 so far.

Actually during H1N1 outbreak I was working at Yishun Polyclinic. We setup these outdoor booths to see patients.

We all wore N95 masks gown gloves etc.

It was for a few weeks. But then I think every few deaths and it just went away. I honestly cannot remember how it blew off. But I remember nothing major came out from it.

If indeed the history books say it killed 26 and you compare now covid has killed 6 then really what's the big worry about?

It is the media. The stupid media played this up in China. Then the same narrative continued across the world.

H1N1 the media did not play it up.

 

[Leongsam]

What data set did you use?

The data from Singapore

https://www.sammyboy.com/threads/facts-regarding-influenza-in-singapore.282965/#post-3083590

Confirmed cases = 1189 This is the 20% which have been confirmed.

But 80% of those infected have only mild symptoms so doctors just told them to self isolate, take temperature etc so this number is 8/2 x 1189 = 4756. I know that these individuals are not tested because I have friends in this category whom I have spoken to. None have been tested. All instructed to self isolate and take their temperatures and head to hospital only if they take a turn for the worse.

Now we have data that 50% of those infected have no symptoms whatsoever so that's another 4756 so total = 4756x2 = 9512.

6 people have died. You guys know the breakdown so I don't have to go into details.

6/9512 x 100% = 0.06%.

So why the panic?

 

[Leongsam]

What data set did you use?

Let's do the same for Iceland based on the current figures on https://www.covidtracker.com/

Iceland has done more extensive testing so their figures should be even more accurate.

Total confirmed = 1417

Total dead = 4.

Let's assume that because Iceland has tested more people with symptoms let's put the estimate at 50% of those with symptoms so total infected is actually 1417x2

Then there are 50% with no symptoms or who caught it and got better etc so 1417x2x2 = 5668 so 4/5668x100% = 0.07%

Again you can see that in countries where a lot of testing is being done the figures work out to less than 0.1%.

 

[Leongsam]

I worked out the figures for Australia using the same method I used for the Singapore data and it comes out as 0.07% too.

 

[nirvarq]

/rofl........ 2.5 months 3 to 4 local deaths due to a flu whatever you wish to call it and around 900 active cases and only 24 critical and most likely old or already sick and have other ailments is a cause for panic, fear and lockdown to sabo the economy and livelihood and the farking oppositions kept quiet ?!

I thought parliament is broadcast to the nation why didn't you people gather all the facts and discrepancies reported by so many other countries and organizations, professors, doctors etc and forward the questions ? It's not against the law ?! If you speculate they'll charge you but in parliament that's what you're supposed to voice out for us is it not ?

Use the Media against the situation, use the system against the system legally and logically.

Media, fear mongering and the ignorance of the people in general and the entire world is crippled. I still couldn't believe it. What a laughing stock we all are no wonder the jokes say the Aliens reported they ain't going to give any 'first contact' to Earth anytime soon because there does not seems to have an intelligence here.... yet.

A Pandemic and all they do is fought for toilet papers......... Knn, lol........

Not to mention you don't 'catch' a virus just like that it is not a living organism and cannot be spread from bats to human or human to human just by close proximity. Bacterials yes not virus.

The Wuhan Sex worker got 250+ clients and why after 1 months plus we were at like 100+ cases only ? And she's not the only first ones kena here.

And now we're afraid of asymptomatic infections ?! Wtf ...... what kind of retardasi is this. You stayed home you don't get the sun and fresh food shortage your immunity weaken, you get sick and any serious symptoms you're automatically selected, not infected.

We're all going to lose our freedom and sanity ....

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Let's do the same for Iceland based on the current figures on https://www.covidtracker.com/

Iceland has done more extensive testing so their figures should be even more accurate.

Total confirmed = 1417

Total dead = 4.

Let's assume that because Iceland has tested more people with symptoms lets put the estimate at 50% of those with symptoms so total infected is actually 1417x2

Then there are 50% with no symptoms or who caught it and got better etc so 1417x2x2 = 5668 so 4/5668x100% = 0.07%

Again you can see that in countries where a lot of testing is being done the figures work out to less than 0.1%.

I disagree with the idea of inflating the number of covid cases by assuming that 50% are asymptomatic, or assuming that a certain number did not get tested.

Thus far, I have not seen credible published research indicating that such assumptions are statistically sound.

In the case of H1N1/common flu, I have been consistent in using reported deaths divided by confirmed cases. So we must compare apples to apples. You cannot invoke assumptions in one case, and then not invoke them in another.

 

[nayr69sg]

I worked out the figures for Australia using the same method I used for the Singapore data and it comes out as 0.07% too.

So this whole lockdown thing.....who is the mastermind?

Illuminati?

 

[Leongsam]

I disagree with the idea of inflating the number of covid cases by assuming that 50% are asymptomatic, or assuming that a certain number did not get tested.

Thus far, I have not seen credible published research indicating that such assumptions are statistically sound.

In the case of H1N1/common flu, I have been consistent in using reported deaths divided by confirmed cases. So we must compare apples to apples. You cannot invoke assumptions in one case, and then not invoke them in another.

The 80% not tested and the 50% asymptomatic are not assumptions they are actual findings.

Nobody disagrees with the 80% figure and I know that in Singapore only a very small minority would have actually been tested. They are only tested when they have difficulty breathing and head to hospital.

The 50% figure comes from Iceland as they have done the most testing as a proportion of their population.

If you don't agree with these figures tell me why and work the sums using your own guesstimates. Change the asymptomatic figure to 25% if you want. You will still get nowhere near the 3.4% figure that is being used to scare people shitless.

 

[ChanRasjid]

Leongsam, your insistence that covid-19 is just only like the flu has become your religion, no more based on logic and rationality.

Human nature is basically weak and tends easily towards prejudice. Once a person has attached himself strongly to a point of view, it is almost impossible for him to relinquish his viewpoint which he has grasp tightly on for a long time; no amount of facts counter to his view presented would change his viewpoint.

1) Flu mortality rate. Doctors does not necessarily know the truth about the seriousness of the flu nor about its mortality rate. The general doctors don't do research himself to actually find out how serious is the flu. After they have got their practicing license, they usually proceed to practice medicine according to the rules set out and what they learned from their textbooks and what the medical journals write. They don't know if amoxycilin is a good antibiotics; they only prescribed what has been recommended by the medical authorities. Doctors cannot practice outside the prescribed methods nor are they allowed freely to innovate, e.g. drinking one's own urine to cure diabetes!

The figure of 500,000 dying of the flu annually in the world is a "manufactured" figure. Just two month back, a Singapore doctor just regurgitated this "500,000 million death due to flu..." when he said we should also pay more attention to a virus that we are already familiar with - the flu. This 500,000 is a "new" finding published by the Lancet (must be the authority) about how they now record death, "die of... respiratory diseases related to the flu...". No one dies of the flu just as no one dies catching the common cold. It is the way the big pharma is trying to sell the flu vaccines - follow the money!

Even the average doctors don't know how this "new" findings record a death due to flu. They read and some dumb doctors just regurgitate the figure given them by the vaccine salesmen. Neither you Leongsam nor me Rasjid know how they got this 500,000 figures. I'll ask this : Say someone is 40 with underlying conditions, lung problems + heart problems. He then got the flu and developed pneumonia and dies. Is this case included in the 500,000? We don't really know how they lumped the figures for marketing flu vaccines - it is big money. The fact is that the official figure from China CDC is : 2018, 700,000 flu infection and 147 death - how is 147 anything near to 500,000! Chinese TCM traditional doctors would not say someone with AIDS, contracting the flu and die as "dying of the flu".

2) Fact No 2: Covid-19 is not just like the flu. When was it last reported someone in Singapore die of the flu? If the seasonal flu is as serious as covid-19, then New York City's hospitals would not be overwhelmed by codiv-19. The annual seasonal flu would have prepared them for this covid-19 - just an annual routine. But why are they running out of ventilators if annually, their ICU units would be full of flu victims. Why the hospitals in Italy and Spain this year around cannot cope with something which is "just like the flu"?


Chan Rasjid.
Singapore.

"Chemical Analysis Of Plain Distilled Water May Refute Mass-Energy Conservation Of E=mc²"
"The Relativistic Mechanics of E=mc² Fails"; E=mc² is wrong.
"Is Mass Spectrometry Accurate"; Penning trap cannot measure atomic mass.
"Coulomb Electric Gravity"; gravity is all Coulomb electric.
http://www.emc2fails.com

 

[Leongsam]

So this whole lockdown thing.....who is the mastermind?

Illuminati?

It's the media that has stirred up this frenzy but who is ultimately behind it I have no idea.

In 2003 a 7 year old girl named Carolina Anderson was savaged by a dog and ended up needing extensive plastic surgery.

The news outlets decided to make this big news... perhaps it was a slow news week. It made the front page.

In the weeks that followed dog attacks were front page news.. daily reports of vicious dogs, many people bitten, number of postmen/women attacked. It went on and on and on for 3 weeks and forced parliament to toughen the dog laws.

Suddenly this issue went away. People had grown tired of the subject.

Have the stats regarding dog attacks improved? Not one bit!

Here's a 2012 report (9 years later) https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10780946

Here's one from last year

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12227285

All the subsequent reports failed to evoke a national outrage. The subject was boring. It was just one of those things like auto accidents and slipping in the bathtub and breaking your skull.

 

[Leongsam]

Leongsam, your insistence that covid-19 is just only like the flu has become your religion, no more based on logic and rationality.

Human nature is basically weak and tends easily towards prejudice. Once a person has attached himself strongly to a point of view, it is almost impossible for him to relinquish his viewpoint which he has grasp tightly on for a long time; no amount of facts counter to his view presented would change his viewpoint.

1) Flu mortality rate. Doctors does not necessarily know the truth about the seriousness of the flu nor about its mortality rate. The general doctors don't do research himself to actually find out how serious is the flu. After they have got their practicing license, they usually proceed to practice medicine according to the rules set out and what they learned from their textbooks and what the medical journals write. They don't know if amoxycilin is a good antibiotics; they only prescribed what has been recommended by the medical authorities. Doctors cannot practice outside the prescribed methods nor are they allowed freely to innovate, e.g. drinking one's own urine to cure diabetes!

The figure of 500,000 dying of the flu annually in the world is a "manufactured" figure. Just two month back, a Singapore doctor just regurgitated this "500,000 million death due to flu..." when he said we should also pay more attention to a virus that we are already familiar with - the flu. This 500,000 is a "new" finding published by the Lancet (must be the authority) about how they now record death, "die of... respiratory diseases related to the flu...". No one dies of the flu just as no one dies catching the common cold. It is the way the big pharma is trying to sell the flu vaccines - follow the money!

Even the average doctors don't know how this "new" findings record a death due to flu. They read and some dumb doctors just regurgitate the figure given them by the vaccine salesmen. Neither you Leongsam nor me Rasjid know how they got this 500,000 figures. I'll ask this : Say someone is 40 with underlying conditions, lung problems + heart problems. He then got the flu and developed pneumonia and dies. Is this case included in the 500,000? We don't really know how they lumped the figures for marketing flu vaccines - it is big money. The fact is that the official figure from China CDC is : 2018, 700,000 flu infection and 147 death - how is 147 anything near to 500,000! Chinese TCM traditional doctors would not say someone with AIDS, contracting the flu and die as "dying of the flu".

2) Fact No 2: Covid-19 is not just like the flu. When was it last reported someone in Singapore die of the flu? If the seasonal flu is as serious as covid-19, then New York City's hospitals would not be overwhelmed by codiv-19. The annual seasonal flu would have prepared them for this covid-19 - just an annual routine. But why are they running out of ventilators if annually, their ICU units would be full of flu victims. Why the hospitals in Italy and Spain this year around cannot cope with something which is "just like the flu"?


Chan Rasjid.
Singapore.

"Chemical Analysis Of Plain Distilled Water May Refute Mass-Energy Conservation Of E=mc²"
"The Relativistic Mechanics of E=mc² Fails"; E=mc² is wrong.
"Is Mass Spectrometry Accurate"; Penning trap cannot measure atomic mass.
"Coulomb Electric Gravity"; gravity is all Coulomb electric.
http://www.emc2fails.com

Your arguments are perfectly valid but the point is they apply equally to Covid-19.

Big Pharma needs this Covid-19 narrative to continue because they are being asked to come up with a vaccine. If the drama and fear dissipates they'll lose money big time because nobody will bother with the vaccine once it's out. That's what happened with the SARS 1 vaccine. It's there if you want one but would you go for a shot?

OK lets forget the flu and concentrate just on Covid-19.

I have factored in 80% mild and 50% asymptomatic into the data for Singapore, Iceland, Australia etc and come up with a mortality rate of 0.06 to 0.07%. Let's round it off to 0.1%.

Does a mortality rate of 0.1% which consists mainly of 70+ senior citizens justify the shutting down of what is essentially the whole world?

If you think the answer is "yes" then so be it. I happen to take the opposite view. I think more people will die because of the shutdown than from the infection itself and it won't just be the old folk.

I'm also playing devil's advocate here because we cannot just sit back and not do a critical analysis of the data that is out there. Isn't that what peer reviewing is all about in order to find out the truth.

 

[nayr69sg]

The other thing that SHOULD happen is reporting on total number of deaths of ALL CAUSES everyday.

Comparisons. Relativity.

Reporting number of covid deaths sound "scary". But really many people die everyday.

Sure initially the idea is to pause and get more data and analyze.

But surely by now they should know this isnt that deadly.

There is a lot of confirmation bias going on. Because those doctors who came out at the start and said this is deadly! We need to flatten the curve! They all have confirmation bias now. They do not want to say they are wrong.

Flatten the curve was based on the Singapore Japan South Korea data compared to Italy and maybe China.

The Italians made a total mess because they frankly had a very poor system to handle infectious diseases.

Anyway I hope the media starts changing the narrative. We cannot keep this economic shut down for too long.

Release all the modeling projections and be open about it. Have a public discussion. Not one that is only with the CDC and infectious disease doctors.

Get other doctors of other disciplines involved as well.

And then maybe let people decide for themselves.

We have hit pause already fair enough. We bought some time to analyze data. Now it is time to have frank discussion about the data from ALL over the world and decide what the longer term plan will be.

 

[Leongsam]

The other thing that SHOULD happen is reporting on total number of deaths of ALL CAUSES everyday.

Comparisons. Relativity.

That is pretty much what the euromomo website does. https://www.euromomo.eu/

Certain people keep calling me out for making light of the situation. I'm not. A lot of people have died because of or with Covid-19. It is a tragedy for their families and loved ones and the infection deserves to be taken seriously.

What I am asking though is why the world is shut down for this virus but not for other causes of death that have caused even bigger spikes in previous years?

It's a very simple question in my opinion. I'd be happy if someone gave me a straightforward answer of some sort.

Was data from the previous years wrong? Were those deaths somehow justified whereas dying from Covid-19 is not.

Did the hospitals run out of respirators in 2017? If they did why was in not in the news? If they didn't what made the difference? Deaths more spread out over time? or over the country? Died for some other reason? sepsis? organ failure rather than from being unable to breath?

The data must be available. It needs to be used to help with the current situation.

 

[ChanRasjid]

That is pretty much what the euromomo website does. https://www.euromomo.eu/

Certain people keep calling me out for making light of the situation. I'm not. A lot of people have died because of or with Covid-19. It is a tragedy for their families and loved ones and the infection deserves to be taken seriously.

What I am asking though is why the world is shut down for this virus but not for other causes of death that have caused even bigger spikes in previous years?

It's a very simple question in my opinion. I'd be happy if someone gave me a straightforward answer of some sort.

Was data from the previous years wrong? Were those deaths somehow justified whereas dying from Covid-19 is not.

Did the hospitals run out of respirators in 2017? If they did why was in not in the news? If they didn't what made the difference? Deaths more spread out over time? or over the country? Died for some other reason? sepsis? organ failure rather than from being unable to breath?

The data must be available. It needs to be used to help with the current situation.





View attachment 74956

"What I am asking though is why the world is shut down for this virus but not for other causes of death that have caused even bigger spikes in previous years?
...
Was data from the previous years wrong? Were those deaths somehow justified whereas dying from Covid-19 is not."

Dear Leongsam,

I am not sure what you mean. I usually don't pay attention to epidemics and such. I remember various diseases reported in the past - ebola, avian flu, swine flu, H1N1, etc... Ebola was horrible; it is said the virus devour a person inside-out!

I don't remember anything happening in the past 20 years in Singapore that could have warranted a need for any lockdown. The most serious was SARS, but it was not highly contagious as covid-19. SARS could be contained through contact tracing and quarantine and it just died out.

Cases Death
==========
S. Korea 10,237 183 (1.8%)
Sweden 6,443 373 (5.8%)
Japan 3,139 77 (2.5%)
Singapore 1,189 6 (0.5%)
Taiwan 363 5 (1.3%)

Imagine if China decided the Wuhan virus was just a normal infectious disease that needed no special response, and let it spread in the usual course. I think the result may be disastrous - the consequences may even bring down the Chinese government! Ignoring true mortality rate, covid-19 is highly contagious. So not taking action to contain it would be foolhardy.

I can understand why Singapore decided this partial lockdown. It has been mentioned that our government is afraid that any more serious spread of covid-19 may overcome our hospitals - this should be the main reason for this lockdown measures.

The government must have consulted the frontline doctors to investigate the seriousness of covid-19 together with the general views from the WHO, China's experience and the current situation where Europe has been overwhelmed.

There is always an economic cost, but it is normal to always first think about saving lives.

Chan Rasjid.

 

[Leongsam]

Cases Death
==========
S. Korea 10,237 183 (1.8%)
Sweden 6,443 373 (5.8%)
Japan 3,139 77 (2.5%)
Singapore 1,189 6 (0.5%)
Taiwan 363 5 (1.3%)

You already know these stats are only from the cases that ended up in hospital. 80% of cases are mild and in NZ are not tested. Another 50% are asymptomatic and don't even know they are sick. Same applies to Singapore and Australia because I get first hand info from those who are in isolation because of a fever or sore throat and cough. They are not being tested.

As more test kits are being made available drive through testing is now being established which will make the results more accurate but testing is still being rationed because of test kit shortages.

I've done the stats for Singapore, Iceland, New Zealand and Australia and all are way below 0.1% mortality rate.

And a test for antibodies has not even been deployed yet.

You keep quoting these figures that are already debunked.

Iceland has done extensive testing and has already shown that at least 50% have no symptoms whatsoever.

And the biggest indicator of all is the standard deviation from the mean number of overall deaths in Europe. It is smaller compared to other years.

 

[sweetiepie]

What I am asking though is why the world is shut down for this virus but not for other causes of death that have caused even bigger spikes in previous years?

It's a very simple question in my opinion. I'd be happy if someone gave me a straightforward answer of some

The simple answer is for all other causes of death there are still ways to prevent it to a certain extend whereas for this virus is no way especially after rooking at the how long does the virus stay on surface chart KNN

 

[Leongsam]

Covid-19: identifying and isolating asymptomatic people helped eliminate virus in Italian village
BMJ 2020; 368 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1165 (Published 23 March 2020) Cite this as: BMJ 2020;368:m1165
https://www.bmj.com/coronavirus
An Italian academic has claimed striking evidence that most people infected with covid-19 show no symptoms but are still able to infect others, which he says has huge implications for testing policy, particularly in hospitals.

Sergio Romagnani, a professor of clinical immunology at the University of Florence, has reported how blanket testing in a completely isolated village of roughly 3000 people in northern Italy saw the number of people with covid-19 symptoms fall by over 90% within 10 days.

Vo’Euganeo, 50 km west of Venice, was closed off by authorities in mid-February, at which point repeat RNA testing of the entire population began. All those with positive tests were quarantined. The number of people sick from covid-19 fell from 88 to seven in less than 10 days, Romagnani reported.

In an open letter to the authorities in the Tuscany region,1 Romagnani wrote that the great majority of people infected with covid-19—50-75%—were asymptomatic, but represented “a formidable source” of contagion.

“The percentage of people infected, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases, particularly, but not only, among young people. Isolation of asymptomatics is essential for controlling the spread of the virus and the seriousness of the epidemic,” he said.