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AhSo1

Alfrescian
Loyal
For those wanting to emigrate, please determine what kind of emigrant you are. Are you there to retire? If that is so, the SGD will get you a bigger house but day to day expenses might not be cheaper. Big ticket items could be OK because of the volume which they purchase these things. But with the focus on supporting local industries and blocking Chinese imports, be prepared for substantial increase in pricing for several items. If you are there to make a living, please bear in mind that the unemployment rate is 9 to 10% for the past 3 years with no signs of improving and unless you can make yourself outside the bottom 10% of the population and also better than the next 20 % who do menial work, like cleaners, construction workers etc or you are in the IT industry where the US is still King, you should also consider the retirement route and enjoy your early retirement. If you wish enjoy the freedom of speech in this land of the free, you better wear the hat of a freedom fighter from a third world lowdown country because it gives them the superiority feeling when listening to you. Don't think you will get the same treatment if you are a local Chinese. You will just be another loud talking minority. If this is what you have decided, good luck to you.
If on the hand, you are like me, a Sinkist. Find out what irks you in Sinkland. FT problem, HDB pricing, rail and road congestion, tough education system, political system? Change them. Trust me. This Govt is afraid of losing majority control, they will do everything to get your vote. If none of these get changed, change them.
All the above, I am using only the US as an example but I am sure we can work out similar arguments for other destinations.

Singapore has lost control long ago. Failure to contain inflation for some time now, reflects MAS policy failure @ an economic crisis level of 5%. The media will never focus on the real story, the inflation and the manufacture of GDP via immigration. 5% inflation is more dangerous to the people of Singapore than anything occuring in the US or Europe, unless you are a shareholder of foreign bank with bond exposure.

Another risk to Singapore is China. There are too many positions on a Chinese economic meltdown. Beijing is cornered this time around as they are unable to stimulate as they did in 2009. Reports of property prices crashing are rampant. The market is pricing in major losses to the banking system, threatening asset prices in Singapore. When the hot money inflows cease, expect another 1997-2005 type of property price crashes in Singapore. Compare this to the slow deflation in the US and Europe, choked by too much debt.

Thinking the US$ will stay weak forever is misguided as the US$ skyrocketed in March 2009 after the GFC hitting near S$ 1.6 and A$ 1.6 respectively. Ultra low interest environments are volatile. Investors are looking for risk. Demographics play a role in structural issues in US and Europe so unemployment is a function of a generation of Europeans and Americans retiring at the same time, not necessarily a reflection of a poor economy. Politics complicate the issue but the Americans can solve their problems in contrast to the EU. There is no fiscal union in the EU. The Americans budget can be cut and revenues can be enhanced. The Americans can reduce the 500 billion defense budget, a likely scenario should Republican Ron Paul win or Obama reelection.

Ironic as it may be, the US$ is still the world's reserve and there are no challengers on the horizon. China has their own problems and the EU is on the verge of collapse. The weaker American Dollar has restarted many exports, the trade deficit with China is shrinking. I would not bet against America at this juncture. US 10 year yields below 2% is proof of this. As the Americans still hold the reserve currency they may, if necessary, launch QE3 increasing hot money inflow into Asia, spiking inflation once more, threatening our economic well being, making the eventual price corrections in China and Singapore more painful.

But expect deflation and asset deflation worldwide by 2014.
 

Fook Seng

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
AhSo1 said:
Singapore has lost control long ago. Failure to contain inflation for some time now, reflects MAS policy failure @ an economic crisis

But expect deflation and asset deflation worldwide by 2014.

Singapore's inflation was caused by a key self-inflicted policy - asset enhancement policy. The govt is now trying to control this by playing with supply and demand and it will take about 4 years to meet the demand for flats. This will not correct all the increase in prices in the past 20 years of so. Neither was it desirable but it should keep that key component of cost - housing from getting worst. The indirect effect of this will be a moderation of all other costs except imported cost. As for imported cost, nothing you can do about it. Singapore's other problem is the shortage of infrastructure caused by uncoordinated increase in FT population. To a certain extent this can be curbed and they are already doing it for fear of losing too many votes. Inspite of this, they will continue to lose votes but it will keep them on their toes. I don't agree with many forummers here that the ruling party can do whatever they want. They are not almighty, not if they want to continue to rule. Regarding the rest of your comments regarding the outside world, I totally disagree with you. When stable govts have to resign to give way to interim govts who have the free-hand to dish out unpopular remedial policies, that is a different category of fish as far as problem is concerned.
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Singapore has lost control long ago. Failure to contain inflation for some time now, reflects MAS policy failure @ an economic crisis level of 5%. The media will never focus on the real story, the inflation and the manufacture of GDP via immigration. 5% inflation is more dangerous to the people of Singapore than anything occuring in the US or Europe, unless you are a shareholder of foreign bank with bond exposure.

Thinking the US$ will stay weak forever is misguided as the US$ skyrocketed in March 2009 after the GFC hitting near S$ 1.6 and A$ 1.6 respectively. Ultra low interest environments are volatile. Investors are looking for risk. Demographics play a role in structural issues in US and Europe so unemployment is a function of a generation of Europeans and Americans retiring at the same time, not necessarily a reflection of a poor economy. Politics complicate the issue but the Americans can solve their problems in contrast to the EU. There is no fiscal union in the EU. The Americans budget can be cut and revenues can be enhanced. The Americans can reduce the 500 billion defense budget, a likely scenario should Republican Ron Paul win or Obama reelection.

But expect deflation and asset deflation worldwide by 2014.


The reason why USD is popular

1. Irrational humans
2. Fool's Gold (美金 is no longer backed by gold)

Just wait until US Interest Rates go up and They will be in deeper shit!


Something outside Singaporeans' radar.
Food security will be an issue as world population grow faster than food supplies.

For Singapore, it just mean more expensive food.

Quarter of world's farmland degraded - UN report finds
November 28, 2011 4:44PM

Thanks to the Green Revolution, the world's cropland grew by just 12 per cent but food productivity increased by 150 per cent between 1961 and 2009.

But the UN report found that rates of growth have been slowing down in many areas and today are only half of what they were at the peak of the Green Revolution.

It found that 25 per cent of the world's farmland is now "highly degraded", with soil erosion, water degradation and biodiversity loss.

Another eight per cent is moderately degraded, while 36 per cent is stable or slightly degraded and 10 per cent is ranked as "improving".

The rest of the Earth's surface is either bare or covered by inland water bodies.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-new...ds/story-e6frfku0-1226208344741#ixzz1ez4G7udp
 
Last edited:

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Singapore's inflation was caused by a key self-inflicted policy - asset enhancement policy.

When stable govts have to resign to give way to interim govts who have the free-hand to dish out unpopular remedial policies, that is a different category of fish as far as problem is concerned.

I feel that asset enhancement is not the root cause. Because it does not explain the low interest rate. In fact, it is because of the low interest rates that investors put money in properties to improve returns.

It is very difficult to get a stable government these days. Even in stable Australia, we are run by a minority government. Canada Harper govt, Japan, EU, etc. Governments no longer have all the answers in a globalised world. The sovereign state is an artifical creation, together with the idea of central banking, and now, both under attacked by rich globalised companies and the inherent flaws of such systems.
 

Don Muthuswamy

Alfrescian
Loyal
Why would you want to migrate to the U.S. when many people are seeking to move out of the U.S.?

Have you actually lived in the U.S.? Do you know what it is actually like in the U.S.?

Many parts of the U.S. have become like third-world countries. The country is in a real state of mess and is spiralling downwards really fast.

If you seek to get out of Singapore, I can understand.

But there are far better options other than the U.S.

At least got nice Ang Moh zarbohs mah. :biggrin:
 

Fook Seng

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
neddy said:
I feel that asset enhancement is not the root cause. Because it does not explain the low interest rate. In fact, it is because of the low interest rates that investors put money in properties to improve returns.

By Asset Enhancement Policy, most people refers to the pricing of the HDB flat which suddenly stopped being a low cost housing to a growing asset with a land cost benchmarked to the open market pricing. It filled the govt coffers, increased the rental of everything Govt built and set the benchmark for private sector market as well. That is the largest single factor in the rise in the cost of living. The low borrowing rate, of course, enables you to borrow more but as you can only have one HDB flat, don't think it has a similar impact on the price than for private sector market. For the primary HDB market, the Govt is the sole decider of housing pricing. For the secondary market, the PR population will have an impact. So does interest rates and also the shortfall in the supply to demand. If the HDB programme is planned well, don't see why the housing price cannot be better controlled.
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
By Asset Enhancement Policy, most people refers to the pricing of the HDB flat which suddenly stopped being a low cost housing to a growing asset with a land cost benchmarked to the open market pricing.

I C.
It also make the "owners" appear "rich"! Provided that they can sell and buy a cheap property in a country for retirement.
 
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imperialarms

Alfrescian
Loyal
I have a plan to sell my pigeon hole for plus my savings to invest in this green card.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EB-5_visa


Does anyone have any suggestion or experience through this way? I think a lot of Singaporeans can purchase million dollar condos, this must be a better option to define our future. I am giving myself 5 years until the kids a little older (no more toddlers) to go down this path.


You can't just buy a condo for the EB-5. For 500k, you capital must be at risk and create a certain number of jobs in a deprived area. There are only a limited amount of ventures that are approved for EB-5.
 

AhSo1

Alfrescian
Loyal
Singapore's inflation was caused by a key self-inflicted policy - asset enhancement policy. The govt is now trying to control this by playing with supply and demand and it will take about 4 years to meet the demand for flats. This will not correct all the increase in prices in the past 20 years of so. Neither was it desirable but it should keep that key component of cost - housing from getting worst. The indirect effect of this will be a moderation of all other costs except imported cost. As for imported cost, nothing you can do about it. Singapore's other problem is the shortage of infrastructure caused by uncoordinated increase in FT population. To a certain extent this can be curbed and they are already doing it for fear of losing too many votes. Inspite of this, they will continue to lose votes but it will keep them on their toes. I don't agree with many forummers here that the ruling party can do whatever they want. They are not almighty, not if they want to continue to rule. Regarding the rest of your comments regarding the outside world, I totally disagree with you. When stable govts have to resign to give way to interim govts who have the free-hand to dish out unpopular remedial policies, that is a different category of fish as far as problem is concerned.

The government does not wish to create asset enhancement in this climate. They wish to remain competitive. Lower wages, supply of affordable housing is a goal of the government, not the current situation where the battle to control hot money is a lost cause. Property prices at today's level is costing Singapore. The government control of the property sector has a poor track record. Looking back at the revision of the plot ratio rule in 2004-2005 to boost the construction industry thus resulting in the enbloc craze is a reminder of this.

The policy was to allow S$ appreciation to combat rising import prices. It has failed. The government cannot use traditional inflation beating tools such as raising interest rates as that would cause a shock to the housing market. The government is mindful too many outstanding loans would be at risk due to our floating interest rate system. There is no American style 30 year fixed property financing.

People are now noticing the model is broken. The well diversified economy is not thriving, but growth is being created out of thin air, by the very act of net emigration into Singapore. It is unsustainable and when the population hits 6 million then Singapore will be closer to HK, for that is the future. Over diversification, and ultra urbanization. Not a pretty picture.

And will the people vote against this? Perhaps in 2 election cycles from now, but by then the population will be closer to 6 million.

So migration to a place where the city is not choked with throngs of people, where peace and quiet can be had for song, where the S$ goes a long way is still attractive to those who can emigrate to greener pastures.
 

AhSo1

Alfrescian
Loyal
The reason why USD is popular

1. Irrational humans
2. Fool's Gold (美金 is no longer backed by gold)

Just wait until US Interest Rates go up and They will be in deeper shit!


Something outside Singaporeans' radar.
Food security will be an issue as world population grow faster than food supplies.

For Singapore, it just mean more expensive food.

Quarter of world's farmland degraded - UN report finds
November 28, 2011 4:44PM

Thanks to the Green Revolution, the world's cropland grew by just 12 per cent but food productivity increased by 150 per cent between 1961 and 2009.

But the UN report found that rates of growth have been slowing down in many areas and today are only half of what they were at the peak of the Green Revolution.

It found that 25 per cent of the world's farmland is now "highly degraded", with soil erosion, water degradation and biodiversity loss.

Another eight per cent is moderately degraded, while 36 per cent is stable or slightly degraded and 10 per cent is ranked as "improving".

The rest of the Earth's surface is either bare or covered by inland water bodies.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-new...ds/story-e6frfku0-1226208344741#ixzz1ez4G7udp

Problem with US interest rates is they have the reserve currency. They can do whatever they want to save themselves. If rates go up, then the Fed can purchase as long as inflation is as low as last 5 years.

Apart from this, investors have too much liquidity in US$, which accounts for some 65-70 of all global currency in circulation. That and the reserve status means investors will continue to buy US treasuries at worst debt level than other nations because of their superweapon, the reserve currency.
 

Aussie Prick

Alfrescian
Loyal
The reason why USD is popular

1. Irrational humans
2. Fool's Gold (美金 is no longer backed by gold)

Just wait until US Interest Rates go up and They will be in deeper shit!


Something outside Singaporeans' radar.
Food security will be an issue as world population grow faster than food supplies.

For Singapore, it just mean more expensive food.

Quarter of world's farmland degraded - UN report finds
November 28, 2011 4:44PM

Thanks to the Green Revolution, the world's cropland grew by just 12 per cent but food productivity increased by 150 per cent between 1961 and 2009.

But the UN report found that rates of growth have been slowing down in many areas and today are only half of what they were at the peak of the Green Revolution.

It found that 25 per cent of the world's farmland is now "highly degraded", with soil erosion, water degradation and biodiversity loss.

Another eight per cent is moderately degraded, while 36 per cent is stable or slightly degraded and 10 per cent is ranked as "improving".

The rest of the Earth's surface is either bare or covered by inland water bodies.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-new...ds/story-e6frfku0-1226208344741#ixzz1ez4G7udp

I am starting to really worry about what's coming. Coordinated interventions, lowering reserve ratios, more bailouts........At what point will the powers that be realize its just better to let nature take its course. Let the banks die already. Why are we continuing to reward bad behavior? Why are central bank governors the new politicans? We have no say.........

We cant just keep on printing our way out of this mess. The Americans print. The Japs print. The Euro prints. Rinse, repeat,...... cant pay? Inflation? Bailout!...... and we cash in on equities. Its getting stupid. All this money we have made since July its like - its like the monoply money in a kids game now. Rinse, repeat.

Its just stupid.

And we might be all in for a financial tsunami.

I think its time for me to quit already.
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
the Central money money printing continues ...

Bought another 1 kg of gold $55k. Keeping for around 1 year for tax-free gains.

Europe has 3 more obstacles to overcome before mid 2012. And it will be the same liquidity solution again and again.
 

Fook Seng

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
neddy said:
I C.
It also make the "owners" appear "rich"! Provided that they can sell and buy a cheap property in a country for retirement.

For retirement, I agree with you totally. For making a living, there are many other factors. The choice of destination must be right.
 

Fook Seng

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
neddy said:
the Central money money printing continues ...

Bought another 1 kg of gold $55k. Keeping for around 1 year for tax-free gains.

Europe has 3 more obstacles to overcome before mid 2012. And it will be the same liquidity solution again and again.

One thing the central banks have done right was to reduce interest rates in concert including the PRC. Each country still maintains its relative cost of borrowing. But you are right. This is no final solution. This is just an attempt to soften the landing. The problem of diversity in the economic well-being of the Eurozone is still there and trying to restructure the economy to improve your debt is easily said than done. The weaker countries will call again for a rescue package or a devaluation of the Euro, if not Greece, then Portugal, or Italy or Spain, even France. The stronger economies like Germany or Netherlands will not support some of these rescue plans which while making it relatively cheaper for weaker countries to borrow, will make it relatively more expensive for stronger countries to borrow which they do not need to on their own. The reason to stay together will be weak. Any change, such as a breakup, will bring chaos to the world markets and to the actual economies. So I agree. It will be very bad.
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Fook Seng, I cannot agree on the interest rates reduction. It is pretty obvious that the banks should have allowed to fail, but that will affected too many powerful people with vested interests. It is easier to transfer the problems to the people.

We have already seen what happened to Japan. It never recovered from the bubble economy and the Plaza accord because it wanted to save everyone. By 2011, it is still trying to regain its shine.

The trouble is that the economics we are schooled in not longer works.
 
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Aussie Prick

Alfrescian
Loyal
Fook Seng, I cannot agree on the interest rates reduction. It is pretty obvious that the banks should have allowed to fail, but that will affected too many powerful people with vested interests. It is easier to transfer the problems to the people.

We have already seen what happened to Japan. It never recovered from the bubble economy and the Plaza accord because it wanted to save everyone. By 2011, it is still trying to regain its shine.

The trouble is that the economics we are schooled in not longer works.

Its either printing with high inflation in all nations - except for those goddam Americans - or its debt deflation for all (including those goddam Americans). There is no other way around these two outcomes.

Banks are holding the world economy hostage. First they got their way when it came to greek haircuts. 30%? 40%? Should be 90% losses. But no who pays the bill? At 50% they still are refusing to purchase current debt, staging a protest.

So what do the banks want? They want to be paid even if they made bad decisions. They behave like spoilt children. They whine and get their way.

Yesterday on Bloomberg - Banks not to suffer any losses on debt repayment until now and 2013.

All losses to be borne by taxpayers.

So there you have it - Obama, Sarkosy, Merkel, Guillard etc are puppets.

The emperors are really Bernanke, Draghi, Swann, etc

Think the new rulers will allow the rich to loose asset value?
 

Don Muthuswamy

Alfrescian
Loyal
Its either printing with high inflation in all nations - except for those goddam Americans - or its debt deflation for all (including those goddam Americans). There is no other way around these two outcomes.

Banks are holding the world economy hostage. First they got their way when it came to greek haircuts. 30%? 40%? Should be 90% losses. But no who pays the bill? At 50% they still are refusing to purchase current debt, staging a protest.

So what do the banks want? They want to be paid even if they made bad decisions. They behave like spoilt children. They whine and get their way.

Yesterday on Bloomberg - Banks not to suffer any losses on debt repayment until now and 2013.

All losses to be borne by taxpayers.

So there you have it - Obama, Sarkosy, Merkel, Guillard etc are puppets.

The emperors are really Bernanke, Draghi, Swann, etc

Think the new rulers will allow the rich to loose asset value?

Well, Urops in deep shit now with Spain having abt 20% unemploymnt, Greece & Italy bankrupt & the financiall tumors spreading sloly 2 other nat in Urop. So its real bad news 4 the nex gen & the nex & the 1 aft that. :eek:
 

axe168

Alfrescian
Loyal
If on the hand, you are like me, a Sinkist. Find out what irks you in Sinkland. FT problem, HDB pricing, rail and road congestion, tough education system, political system? Change them. Trust me. This Govt is afraid of losing majority control, they will do everything to get your vote. If none of these get changed, change them.
All the above, I am using only the US as an example but I am sure we can work out similar arguments for other destinations.

Dude, for every 1000 SG quitters, your ruling party will bring in another 100,000 blangalah and Chinamen... You are fighting against the PAP gangs.. the old folks (who once lived in poverty, now they are thankful for 1 room rental + ad hoc red packets from the govt).. Finally, the inferior migrants turned sinkies, using SG as stepping stone... Change what ? Do not attempt the change the weather condition in SG, dude.

You are likely to have an easy task learning to adapt to the 4 seasons environment, contributing to the new country. By the time, you have contributed your max.. you will then cash you out your gold - making good use of your mighty AUD and retire somewhere cheap and good. If SG is your choice, then start praising their govt :-) Alternatively, M'sia - 2nd home scheme.. or Thailand etc.. Quitters - Life's Good :-)
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Happy New Year, everyone including trolls.

I am off to seek the God of Fortune.

Europeans looking for work in Australia.
Rental shortages.
Taking out equity at 7-8% to lend out overseas at 13-15% to dark-skinned customers.

I am beginning to sound like a bank myself. :biggrin:


Take care everyone!
 

axe168

Alfrescian
Loyal
Are you sure ? It used to be $48k for a 1 kg biscuit.

the Central money money printing continues ...

Bought another 1 kg of gold $55k. Keeping for around 1 year for tax-free gains.

Europe has 3 more obstacles to overcome before mid 2012. And it will be the same liquidity solution again and again.
 
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