Chinese AVIC Top Head admits Poor Quality of Jet Engine

[longbow]

China buying up composites mfg. This case is just buying up the technology.

Saturday, December 5, 2009
China's Xi'an Aircraft acquires Future Advanced Composite Components AG (FACC)

Chinese plane maker Xi'an Aircraft Industry (Group) Company has purchased a majority stake in Austrian aircraft parts maker Future Advanced Composite Components AG, the companies said. Xi'an Aircraft and Hong Kong-based private equity firm Advanced Treasure Limited gained a combined 91.25 percent stake in FACC, according to statements released late Thursday.

China's state-run Xinhua news agency called it "the first time a European aerospace manufacturing company was acquired by an Asian aerospace manufacturing company." Xi'an Aircraft, a subsidiary of state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), holds 90 percent of the combined stake and ATL holds 10 percent, according to the statements.

The terms of the purchase were not disclosed. The acquisition is part of the Chinese plane-maker's strategy to "build a group with international influence and competitiveness," Lin Zuomin, president of AVIC, said in the statement.

The Chinese group will inject at least 40 million euros (58 million dollars) in fresh capital into FACC, a supplier to large aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier, FACC said.

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Longbow....relax..Aviation is not toy making business. Aircraft industry is not some game play for wanna be businessmen with money. Even the Russians,,who have such highly developed aviation industry are buying Boeing and Airbus planes for Aeroflot. They retrofit Ge engines on their own aircraft. Sheer economics decree that necessity.

Now, coming to aircraft engines, the two main guys ( GE PW ) and RR totally control the high thrust jet engine market ( > 90K lbs Thrust ). The technology they have they learnt by real research and development and experience of decades with jet engines. The engine blades are manufactured in secrecy by RR.

Why is that even today the Russians who have made 1000s of engines, just cannot match the endurance and reliability of the Western engines?. Why is that their MTBF is just one quarter hours of the Western engines ? . Why is their fuel efficiency is half that of western engines ?. Why is that an engine on MiG, Sukoi has to be dismounted after 400 flying hours while the F16 engine is done at 3000 hours ?

The story is the same for Ilyushin, Antonov commercial aircraft engines.
And then you have the airframe..Avionics, well that is another big story.

There is a limit to which copy and duplicate approach can be applied in industry and commerce. And that limit is near minimum when it comes to Aviation, medicine and high technology things like massive processors, top end software etc etc.
Even JV mfr in such areas are not encouraged, perhaps maybe superficial manufacturing tales, that look nice on media and TV news.

 

[longbow]

That is precisely my point. It is one thing to have the designs on how to make a plane but if your industrial complex is not at that level of sophistication the end product is be compromised. That is why the Russian can have Gen 5 fighter but reliability will never be there.

You can have top brain surgeon but if he tries to do an operation some 3rd world country, chances are that patient may die of infection (the hospitals just do not have the best practices that 1st world nations have).

But the Chinese are getting Airbus to assemble the A320. Airbus is no mickey mouse operation and Chinese will learn the level of quality needed to achieve the end result. Learn from the best right. The Airbus Tianjin factory is churning out 4 A320 a month and in a matter of time most of the parts will be sourced within China. Politically Airbus cannot say that but that would make most business sense. Although the A320 is an old design, the assembly technology and testing is leading edge. These very Chinese workers could go work on the A380 assembly line and feel right at home.

The Chinese are then getting all the major component mfg - from the GE engines you mentioned, to avionics, landing gear, composites, to set up JV in China.

What is happening is very simple. Chinese are using their huge market to clobber the aviation industry into technology transfer. Whoever sells the holy grail gets the huge profit and mkt share (very impt in this business) over the next 10 years which may very well make its competitors irrelevant. The corporations try and paint a more benign picture given the politics of it all but if you get to the dirty details it is access to market in exchange for technology. SIA used to hold the aviation world in awe by their annoucements of aircraft purchases at airshows. The Chinese are offering 100 times that potential!!!

Knew nothing much about China's aviation industry till you posted this article on AVIC. It was pretty forward thinking for AVIC chief to admit that their current products suck. But then you can see their response and I am quite surprised.

I was so surprised at the Chinese effort and they have all the pieces of the puzzle.

They just bought over FACC (95%) which supplies composite nacellle, cowling for RR.

http://www.facc.at/en/structures/index.asp?dat=engine_nacelle_components_systems

More composite knowhow

GE Aviation materials (fan blades, engine parts)



GE Aviation Opens New Facility In Suzhou
March 6, 2009 | By Editor | Print This Page | Email This Page
GE Aviation, has announced the opening of its new systems manufacturing facility in Suzhou.
GE's facility in Suzhou is located at 200 Middle Suhong Road, Suzhou Industrial Park. This new facility covers 18,600 square meters and is ready to produce state-of-the-art autoclaved composite parts, mechanical fabrications, structural assemblies, and civil aircraft actuation systems.

Current plans are to ramp-up its staff to 200 employees in 2009. The facility will produce parts for aircraft such Boeing's B737, B777, and B787, the Airbus A320, A330, and A340 as well the Chinese ARJ21 regional jet.

Future plans include the addition of an electronics assembly and test capability.

GE Aviation, an operating unit of General Electric Company, is a manufacturer of jet engines, components and integrated systems for commercial aircraft.
opened China factor in April 2009



Chinese are planning on building a very competitive commercial jet with world class quality. After all they learnt from the leaders!

 

[longbow]

Cannot agree with you more. I would not want to ride on a Chinese made aircraft even if it passes the FAA. However if they can proof a certain number of trouble free flight hours I would change my mind. But I would have no issues going on a Chinese made Airbus/Boeing aircraft.

There is such a thing as international QC standards. So if a Chinese made airbus can meet airbus standards and pass FAA, i frankly do not care where it is made. After all most of the components in the avoinics of a modern plane are probably from Chinese factories. As long as it passes testing, I do not care where the chip/display/board comes from.


Who knows, this whole attempt might fail but this time around it does seem, at least to me, to be a much better attempt. After all 10 or 15 years ago, the Chinese did not have as large a stick. I suspect that this time around they have reached critical mass. I was frankly surprised at this recent attempt.

 

[Meltdown]

If it's designed and made in China, I'll stay well away from it.

Can't agree w/ you more.

If the Chinks can't make their milk & dairy products safe for consumption, can pilots be safe flying jets fitted with engines designed and made by Chinkies?

 

[Papsmearer]

I am very impressed with your recommendations Papsmearer.

Indeed SGP is well positioned for AIRCRAFT manufacturing, and these are the kind of high value, high margin business segment that SGP should be after.

And SGP's QC awareness is good enough, and Engineers & Technicians large enough.

It's really a waste that the ASSY is given to CHINA... one big piece of a cake given up.

I am no aviator specialist, but Papsmearer sound like someone who IS in the market.

If I were in the Economics Development Board's Minister, I would really push for this project to go ahead.

But then again, isn't AIRCRAFT manufacturing a risky business? as it's directly related to the economic performance of the world? Although big gains, it's tied to big losses when no one places new orders, and also big finance programs? What are the risk involved in this business.

And how we can minimize the risk? Care to share?

Thank u for your compliment. To address your question of whether aircraft making is risky, yes it is. One could potentially lose billions doing it. But anyone would agree that they would rather lose billions making planes (at least there are jobs and industry created in singapore in the process, along with technology transfer) versus losing billions in the stock market like Temasek and GIC (with absolutely no benefit to s'pore). But in S'pore's situation, the points I have raised in my post would have minimized the loss if any.
- Licensed production of an existing plane like the Fokker F28/F100, or Boeing 717 would not have entailed the same risk as designing a new plane. Design of a totally new plane costs billions of dollars, and this is where the risk of big losses occurs, if the cost cannot be recoup thru sufficient sales.
- Captive market for the sale of this hypothetical plane that SAE builds would have provided a good launch and recoup the investment of setting up a manufacturing plant/assembly line in S'pore. Just Silkair and Tiger alone would account for 60-70 aircraft. These are GLCs that should have been forced to buy a local made aircraft. In addition, if MOF and MOTI can co-ordinate their act together, more sales can be had. For example, Temasek purchased a large block of kingfisher airlines, an Indian discount airline. I cannot see why they cannot be convinced to purchase a s'pore made plane.
- Any plane made in S'pore would have offered a considerable price advantage. Especially for an existing design like the Bowing 717 or Fokker 100 where development costs have already been spread over many units, and where our labour and cost of doing business are lower. We could have undercut the price on any Airbus or Boeing that Asian airlines want to buy. We could have offered them a deal they can't refuse. i.e. cheap financing thru DBS or govt. guaranteed loans, lower price plane, better service due to our closer geographic location. etc.

My point was that we could have done all of this 10 years ago, at least. if we were successful, We could have made it a lot harder for the chinese to consider getting into the market in the way that they have. Why would they do it, if there was a low cost quality plane maker of 90-140 seat plane in singapore?

 

[Papsmearer]

Cannot agree with you more. I would not want to ride on a Chinese made aircraft even if it passes the FAA. However if they can proof a certain number of trouble free flight hours I would change my mind. But I would have no issues going on a Chinese made Airbus/Boeing aircraft.

There is such a thing as international QC standards. So if a Chinese made airbus can meet airbus standards and pass FAA, i frankly do not care where it is made. After all most of the components in the avoinics of a modern plane are probably from Chinese factories. As long as it passes testing, I do not care where the chip/display/board comes from.


Who knows, this whole attempt might fail but this time around it does seem, at least to me, to be a much better attempt. After all 10 or 15 years ago, the Chinese did not have as large a stick. I suspect that this time around they have reached critical mass. I was frankly surprised at this recent attempt.

Don't forget, these initial chinese airliners are build under heavy supervision by european engineers. In fact, the europeans are shadowing their counterpart at the factory closely. Once they leave, and once the chinese contend of the plane starts to increase, u will start to see all the short cuts and cheating that is endemic to chinese manufacturing and industry. Without the amgmos hovering over them all the time, their normal work habits will creep back in. If you still want to fly in one of those planes that they build wholely on their own, well, up to u. I would love the FAA to certify the 40th aircraft off the line and see how it does.

 

[longbow]

I think as long as it remains an Airbus ops the standard will be there. Also as long as FAA certifies that will be another step. It is a whole QC testing system with counter checks. Also there must be a culture of quality - Airbus will have that in place.

All these concerns about safety are valid given China's history for shortcuts and shoddy products. It also happens when you are a small startup, trying to gain market share and with little reputation to lose. But once a company grows, its name and reputation is worth something and mgmt will try to build on this reputation.

SO for their new airliner, Chinese Airlines will buy many and accumulate the flight hours. Once it can achieve x million logged miles without any trouble then foreign buyers might go for it. If it can result in low fixed an op cost then the budget airline, or freight carrier like Fedex might go for it. Now of course if it experiences lots of problems then it will be a big setback. I was just astounded by how determined the Chinese are in terms of their various JVs and strategic purchases.

It is no longer a situation of flying in parts to assemble (that in itself is impt). They are making the very components in China.


"My point was that we could have done all of this 10 years ago, at least. if we were successful, We could have made it a lot harder for the chinese to consider getting into the market in the way that they have. Why would they do it, if there was a low cost quality plane maker of 90-140 seat plane in singapore?"


Great point but the Chinese will still want to get into the market because they want to challenge Airbus and Boeing in the global market place. Same MO here too - instead of selling to Silk and Tiger they can sell 1000 jets for their domestic market. As for DBS financing, apparently 10% of all leases last year were done by Chinese firms (including the A380 for Quantas). So their new plane will come with easy financing. I would not look past the Chinese for their reasoon in getting into plane leasing business - helps you know the mgmt of the various airlines. Remember that US aviation grew out of demand within US for transportation. The Chinese have the same demand.

Don't forget, these initial chinese airliners are build under heavy supervision by european engineers. In fact, the europeans are shadowing their counterpart at the factory closely. Once they leave, and once the chinese contend of the plane starts to increase, u will start to see all the short cuts and cheating that is endemic to chinese manufacturing and industry. Without the amgmos hovering over them all the time, their normal work habits will creep back in. If you still want to fly in one of those planes that they build wholely on their own, well, up to u. I would love the FAA to certify the 40th aircraft off the line and see how it does.

 

[Papsmearer]

I think as long as it remains an Airbus ops the standard will be there. Also as long as FAA certifies that will be another step. It is a whole QC testing system with counter checks. Also there must be a culture of quality - Airbus will have that in place.

All these concerns about safety are valid given China's history for shortcuts and shoddy products. It also happens when you are a small startup, trying to gain market share and with little reputation to lose. But once a company grows, its name and reputation is worth something and mgmt will try to build on this reputation.

SO for their new airliner, Chinese Airlines will buy many and accumulate the flight hours. Once it can achieve x million logged miles without any trouble then foreign buyers might go for it. If it can result in low fixed an op cost then the budget airline, or freight carrier like Fedex might go for it. Now of course if it experiences lots of problems then it will be a big setback. I was just astounded by how determined the Chinese are in terms of their various JVs and strategic purchases.

It is no longer a situation of flying in parts to assemble (that in itself is impt). They are making the very components in China.


"My point was that we could have done all of this 10 years ago, at least. if we were successful, We could have made it a lot harder for the chinese to consider getting into the market in the way that they have. Why would they do it, if there was a low cost quality plane maker of 90-140 seat plane in singapore?"


Great point but the Chinese will still want to get into the market because they want to challenge Airbus and Boeing in the global market place. Same MO here too - instead of selling to Silk and Tiger they can sell 1000 jets for their domestic market. As for DBS financing, apparently 10% of all leases last year were done by Chinese firms (including the A380 for Quantas). So their new plane will come with easy financing. I would not look past the Chinese for their reasoon in getting into plane leasing business - helps you know the mgmt of the various airlines. Remember that US aviation grew out of demand within US for transportation. The Chinese have the same demand.

I can tell u that Airbus will definitely try to enforce their quality control standards on this JV they are having with the Chinese. But the operative word here is try. Don't forget there will be hundreds maybe thousands of parts manufacturers in China supplying to this assembly plant. How can airbus supervise all of them? If the standards start to slip, do you think Airbus will pull the JV? I doubt it. They have spend too much money and too much time in this.

I believe that there is a tacit agreement and an unwritten handshake that says that these chinese made planes will not be sold out of the country. The normal practice when you start up a a new assembly line and manufacturing plant is to pull the first couple of aircraft off the production line, and get them certified in the US with the FAA and also in Europe with EASA/JAA. U do this so that you can sell there as soon as possible. I notice the AIrbus and Chinese partner have not done this, instead selling the planes directly to chinese airlines. I believe that Airbus is so suspect of the chinese quality that they know these chinese build A320s will not pass FAA and EASA certification. As a result, they are only sold in the domestic chinese market, which is big enough in theory to absorb these planes. Also, due to the range of these Airbuses, its not likely they will fly transatlantic or transpacific and hence be required to pass US or EU certification before landing. I also believe that Airbus is willing to take the risk of tarnishing their record if these planes start getting into accidents and crashes. They will just blame it on the Chinese airline industry, notorious for being accident prone and lacking in safety procedures.

I agree with u that the Chinese will eventually want to get into the plane making business big time. But I believe that if we have a 10 year head start on them thru license production of Boeing or some other planes, I think we would have established ourselves as a player in the Asian aerospace industry. It would have positioned us to be in a position to as for some serious offset manufacturing on the basis of our large orders for Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

Instead today, many regional players have overtaken us or closed the gap. decades ago, Lockheed AS and eventually ST Aerospace were clear leaders in SE Asia. Now u have Nurtanio with experience in aircraft making, Spirit Aerosystems in KL making composite parts for Airbus A320, etc. S'pore has 1/4 of the MRO business in Asia, we certainlycould have been players in the plane making business.