Politicians are quick to make judgement calls because they'll still have their salaries at the end of the lockdown period and the left wing retards figure that their touchy feely message that lives matter more than the economy will resonate with their support base.
Here are the stats that actually matter :
Westpac forecasts unemployment will climb by 200,000
Tom Pullar-Strecker08:56, Mar 27 2020
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Westpac has put out a bleak assessment of the economic impacts of the coroanvirus.
Westpac is forecasting 200,000 jobs will be lost in New Zealand as a result of the response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Chief economist Dominick Stephens estimated that economic activity during the four week lockdown would decline by a third, despite the Government and the Reserve Bank having "done a lot to calm financial markets".
It was obvious the country was going into a "severe economic crunch", he said.
Stephens said his feeling was that GDP in the three months to June would fall by more than 10 per cent "which is completely unprecedented in our lifetimes".
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The impact on jobs would not be quite so severe, he said.
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TOM PULLAR-STRECKER • SENIOR BUSINESS REPORTER
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"But our early is estimate is that about 200,000 jobs will be lost, which is about 7 per cent of the workforce."
The unemployment rate would rise into the "high single digits for the first time since the 1990s", he said.
BNZ research head
Stephen Toplis also forecast on Wednesday that GDP could easily decline by 10 per cent and said its "central scenario" was that unemployment would rise to 9 per cent, though it has "pencilled in" only a 5 per cent GDP drop for the second quarter.
"We think the unemployment rate will peak at the end of next year but that it will drop sharply thereafter," Toplis said.
Stephens said he "didn't believe for a second" that the long term value of firms had fallen as far as sharemarket prices over the last few weeks.
"When financial markets calm, I wouldn't be surprised by a rebound," he said.
A rebound appeared in
evidence in the United States overnight, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing 6 per cent higher at 9am New Zealand time on Friday.
The index is now 23 per cent up on the low it reached on Monday, but 24 per cent off the record high it reached in February.
ASB economist Mike Jones said "a nervous calm" appeared to have returned to financial markets.
"While Covid-19 continues to rapidly spread, there is increased confidence that unprecedented policy support will stave off the most dire outcome for the global economy," he said.
But consumer confidence appeared to have plunged. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell in March, new data on Thursday showed.
The proportion of households who thought it was good time to buy a major household item plummeted from 41 per cent to 16 per cent, the bank said.
"Even if consumers wanted to spend, their ability to do so is now severely curtailed," ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said.
Perceptions regarding 2021 economic outlook fell 42 points, with a net 39 per cent expecting conditions to worsen, the weakest since March 2009.
"New Zealand consumers were feeling pretty good in February, with a lifting housing market, plentiful job opportunities, and low interest rates. Times have changed rapidly – more so than what's been captured in this month's survey," Zollner said.
