In his interview to the Russian daily Izvestia last week, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad confirmed that Russia was honouring “all contracts” it had signed with Syria.
“Russia continues to supply Syria with what it requires to defend itself and its people,” the Syrian leader said.
At the same time, the Kremlin’s response to U.S. threats to attack Syria has been distinctly measured.
It took President Vladimir Putin 10 days to comment on the U.S. threat to punish Syria for the reported chemical attack near Damascus on August 21. He rubbished U.S. claims that the Syrian government was behind the attack and warned the U.S. not to jump the gun and commit another “mistake” by attacking Syria. But when asked what Russia would do if the U.S intervened, he just said that this would be “very sad.”
Stands to gain
Experts say that Moscow’s calibrated reaction largely stems from realisation that U.S. President Barack Obama has got trapped into his own rhetoric about “red lines,” and whatever he does now will play into Russia’s hands.
“Russia doesn’t have to do anything, just sit back and relax, and we’ll end up the winning side,” said Prof. Georgy Mirsky of the Moscow Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
Moscow stands to gain whatever course Mr. Obama takes, experts said.
“If Obama attacks Syria he will be seen fighting on the side of al-Qaeda, whose militants make up a third of the opposition forces, even according to U.S. military commanders,” said analyst Yulia Latynyna.
If the U.S. attack is “limited” and “narrow,” as Mr. Obama has declared, it may even strengthen President Assad who will be able to say he has stood up to the world’s most powerful nation.
Analysts, however, think the U.S. may well slide down the slippery path of broader intervention in Syria.
“Having started to take part in this campaign, the United States will be unable to get out of it without removing Bashar al-Assad. And considerations of prestige will outweigh all the doubts of those who fear chaos after a change of regime,” said Dr. Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
At a recent press conference on Syria, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lamented a lack of “strategic thinking” in U.S. foreign policy. In contrast, Russia has repeatedly demonstrated it has strategic vision, with the situation in Iraq, Libya and Syria proving it right.
Mr. Lavrov said Russia had “no plans to go to war” over Syria, but he did not say Russia would not react.
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