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What if the ruling party is voted out of office during the next election and a new government is formed? Will such freak result occurs in our fake democratic society thus elightening the hearts of many anti - establishment people here?
The loss of a first-ever GRC in GE 2011 plus two consecutive by-elections have jolted the conservative mindset of many Singaporeans here - who are used to traditional PAP victories at the polls. Forty over percent of the voters are rooting for the opposition now and swing voters are coming on board thick and fast if social media reaction is to be trusted.
The sweeping ground sentiments of the people going against the government is so swift and disturbing that anything can happen during the next election but something tells me that its the silent majority who do not access social media that will decide if this unprecedented outcome is to be realised.
There are at least 20% of the fence-sitters who will only decide days before the election who they want to manage their estate and speak up for them in Parliament. These are mainly PAP supporters but may be disappointed by the recent happenings in the country to swing their votes over to the opposition camp during the next election.
The shocking loss of Aljunied GRC to Worker's Party in GE 2011 has shown that more than 10% of the voters there have swung their votes over to the opposition camp and the same thing happened in Punggol-East SMC.
There are at least five GRCs and SMCs which registered more than 40% of the total electorate votes during GE 2011 and so a near-ten percent swing vote overall will bring all these areas over to the opposition camp threatening the power base of the incumbent.
However, the more important question to ask is - will the opposition be ready to form the next government?
Even WP has admitted before that they are not ready to form one yet and are more prepared to be the co-driver with the ruling party running the show but this has drawn much criticism from netizens who questioned the main opposition party's lack of ambition.
Our disunited multi-party opposition system and lack of a shadow government structure have inherently make it very difficult for a smooth transition to occur if a freak election result is to happen during the next election.
A coalition government is the most likely scenario here and the third opposition party to win another GRC looks like they are going to be the vital courted kingpin if this shocking result is to occur.
This equation may not seem so far-fetched especially if ex-PAP stelwarts decide to form their own party and contest the next election. Ex-PAP MPs like Mr Tan Cheng Bock and Mr George Yeo still hold quite alot of clout and can win any election hands down - only if they decide to contest against their ex-master.
If Mr Tan Cheng Bock can stand up and contested the last Presidential Election, it will not be a surprise if he wants to contest the next election as an independent or join one of the opposition party.
In fact, the eventual demise of Mr Lee Kuan Yew could split the party in two leading to a short power struggle with one team pitting themselves against the other in a one-fight-grabs-all general election. This perhaps will be the safest bet for a smoother transition if the incumbent is to be suddenly voted out during the next election.
Nevertheless, investors I heard are also uneasy at the current unstable political sentiments and are bracing themselves for a sharp drop in popularity votes for the ruling party with some even holding out their expansion plan before the next election.
With so many possible twists and turns for the next election, many have already coined it as the mother of all elections and rightfully so as not only will it be fiercely contested but true-blue Singaporeans know that if nothing happens by GE 2016 the sheer number of pro-government converted citizens will nullify any opposition votes in future.
Gilbert Goh
*Article first appeared on https://www.facebook.com/goh.gilbert/posts/10152659200253975
http://therealsingapore.com/content/what-if-pap-was-voted-out-next-ge
The loss of a first-ever GRC in GE 2011 plus two consecutive by-elections have jolted the conservative mindset of many Singaporeans here - who are used to traditional PAP victories at the polls. Forty over percent of the voters are rooting for the opposition now and swing voters are coming on board thick and fast if social media reaction is to be trusted.
The sweeping ground sentiments of the people going against the government is so swift and disturbing that anything can happen during the next election but something tells me that its the silent majority who do not access social media that will decide if this unprecedented outcome is to be realised.
There are at least 20% of the fence-sitters who will only decide days before the election who they want to manage their estate and speak up for them in Parliament. These are mainly PAP supporters but may be disappointed by the recent happenings in the country to swing their votes over to the opposition camp during the next election.
The shocking loss of Aljunied GRC to Worker's Party in GE 2011 has shown that more than 10% of the voters there have swung their votes over to the opposition camp and the same thing happened in Punggol-East SMC.
There are at least five GRCs and SMCs which registered more than 40% of the total electorate votes during GE 2011 and so a near-ten percent swing vote overall will bring all these areas over to the opposition camp threatening the power base of the incumbent.
However, the more important question to ask is - will the opposition be ready to form the next government?
Even WP has admitted before that they are not ready to form one yet and are more prepared to be the co-driver with the ruling party running the show but this has drawn much criticism from netizens who questioned the main opposition party's lack of ambition.
Our disunited multi-party opposition system and lack of a shadow government structure have inherently make it very difficult for a smooth transition to occur if a freak election result is to happen during the next election.
A coalition government is the most likely scenario here and the third opposition party to win another GRC looks like they are going to be the vital courted kingpin if this shocking result is to occur.
This equation may not seem so far-fetched especially if ex-PAP stelwarts decide to form their own party and contest the next election. Ex-PAP MPs like Mr Tan Cheng Bock and Mr George Yeo still hold quite alot of clout and can win any election hands down - only if they decide to contest against their ex-master.
If Mr Tan Cheng Bock can stand up and contested the last Presidential Election, it will not be a surprise if he wants to contest the next election as an independent or join one of the opposition party.
In fact, the eventual demise of Mr Lee Kuan Yew could split the party in two leading to a short power struggle with one team pitting themselves against the other in a one-fight-grabs-all general election. This perhaps will be the safest bet for a smoother transition if the incumbent is to be suddenly voted out during the next election.
Nevertheless, investors I heard are also uneasy at the current unstable political sentiments and are bracing themselves for a sharp drop in popularity votes for the ruling party with some even holding out their expansion plan before the next election.
With so many possible twists and turns for the next election, many have already coined it as the mother of all elections and rightfully so as not only will it be fiercely contested but true-blue Singaporeans know that if nothing happens by GE 2016 the sheer number of pro-government converted citizens will nullify any opposition votes in future.
Gilbert Goh
*Article first appeared on https://www.facebook.com/goh.gilbert/posts/10152659200253975
http://therealsingapore.com/content/what-if-pap-was-voted-out-next-ge
