"Barisan Sosialis" returns in Singapore

[Goh Meng Seng]

Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
Do you get good people to join opposition parties in order to win elections? Or do you win elections in order to get good people to join opposition parties?


My concern is that if you include all those from points 1 to 7, they already have enough to secure a winning % of the valid votes, no matter how hard you campaign or how badly the policies turn out. The "swing vote or middle ground" in SG is a very small %.

You just need a few good men to lead the way to victory. The rest will fall in place later on.

Contrary to what you think, the swing voters are the majority. Look at Anson, from 80%+ to 40% plus. Look at 1991, similarly, the vote swing is big enough for SDP to win 3 seats and WP to win 1 seat. Similarly, SDP suffered a big vote swing in 1997 due to negative sentiments against its infighting, vote swing as big as 22% or more.

In 2006, the vote swing for Aljunied from last known contest result in 1997, the vote swing is more than 10%.

I believe the swing voters will increase as time goes by due to demographic changes.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Sideswipe]

You just need a few good men to lead the way to victory. The rest will fall in place later on.

Contrary to what you think, the swing voters are the majority. Look at Anson, from 80%+ to 40% plus. Look at 1991, similarly, the vote swing is big enough for SDP to win 3 seats and WP to win 1 seat. Similarly, SDP suffered a big vote swing in 1997 due to negative sentiments against its infighting, vote swing as big as 22% or more.

seriously, First Past the Post only works well in a system where only two parties get any significant proportion of votes, when one party like PAP get 66.6% of votes, the results become extremely distorted.

oppo parties should debate with pap on electoral reform and proportional representation during next GE campaigning period.

 

[jw5]

You just need a few good men to lead the way to victory. The rest will fall in place later on.

Contrary to what you think, the swing voters are the majority. Look at Anson, from 80%+ to 40% plus. Look at 1991, similarly, the vote swing is big enough for SDP to win 3 seats and WP to win 1 seat. Similarly, SDP suffered a big vote swing in 1997 due to negative sentiments against its infighting, vote swing as big as 22% or more.

In 2006, the vote swing for Aljunied from last known contest result in 1997, the vote swing is more than 10%.

I believe the swing voters will increase as time goes by due to demographic changes.

Goh Meng Seng

There's another category of pap voters I forgot to include.
The group of not that well off but comfortable people including retirees, ex civil servants, salarymen and women, some of whom hero worship the old guard, some of whom don't want to "rock the boat" without understanding that we are alerady in stormy waters, some of whom are too absorbed, pre-occupied or busy to care.

You may be right about the demographic changes, as I think there are a lot of elderlies in this group and possibly also in group 7. But how long do people have to suffer and toil before the demographic changes take effect? 20 years? 50 years?

What I worry is with group 1 to 7 + this latest group above, they already have at least 51% of eligible valid votes. Hard core opposition may be about 20%. Even with 29% swing or middle ground votes, it wouldn't matter.
Certainly hope not though.

 

[jw5]

seriously, First Past the Post only works well in a system where only two parties get any significant proportion of votes, when one party like PAP get 66.6% of votes, the results become extremely distorted.

oppo parties should debate with pap on electoral reform and proportional representation during next GE campaigning period.

Told you a few times before bro, the fact is the system now is first past the post. And the pap have no reason, incentive or decency to even consider changing as long as it suits them.
They really want to stay in power this way.
You said before that any group of people who care for the country and want elections to be as fair as possible would want to change. This is precisely the reason why it won't change.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

My concern is that if you include all those from points 1 to 7, they already have enough to secure a winning % of the valid votes, no matter how hard you campaign or how badly the policies turn out. The "swing vote or middle ground" in SG is a very small %.

A greater concern and a question to all is why does group #7 continue to vote for pap despite all the problems, which look to be getting worse? Is it due to brainwashing, media influence or fear? Is it really possible to convince this group? I'm pessimistic.

Swing voters are in fact a larger %age than u think.

You probably thot it is small because u forgot to take into consideration in each of the previous few election, there were unexpected issues that sidetracked voters. 1997 was cheng san. 2001 was global terrorism and recession. 2006 was james gomez.

Don't be fooled by randomness. swing votes are in fact the key to victory, as previous elected oppo MPs like JBJ, Ling H.D., etc, have shown.

 

[Sideswipe]

Told you a few times before bro, the fact is the system now is first past the post. And the pap have no reason, incentive or decency to even consider changing as long as it suits them.
They really want to stay in power this way.
You said before that any group of people who care for the country and want elections to be as fair as possible would want to change. This is precisely the reason why it won't change.

I'm unhappy with this system and hope our oppo can debate with PAP on that issue during campaigning period. They should tell voters at rallies why oppo have 33% votes but only 2 seats, we need PR, maybe oppo can gain more sympathy votes this way.

PAP wouldn't abolish GRC too, 99% but I see our oppositions often calling for abolition of GRC - their websites, LTK in parliament. so why can't they make a public statement on PR unless they don't want it too.

 

[loudhailer]

The issue is that might not help it survive. Other parties are fighting to win but prepared to lose. For RP, you get the impression they are expecting to win every seat they will be contesting -looking at the way its members are talking on FB. Once it doesn't happen and they get only 1 NCMP, many will say "bye".

I think KJ's weakness was not managing expectations.

Others will survive with 1 NCMP. NSP will grow instead with 1 good NCMP.

RP will probably get at least two NCMPs since they will probably be amongst the top GRC performers. In Parliament, you compare the performance of GMS or CTL with that of KJ or for that matter Gerald Giam or Glenda Han or Perry Tong if they are still in the running and who do you think is going to impress the people? No prizes for guessing.

Some NCMPs who are known factors (like Dr Lee Siew Choh or JBJ) will use Parliament to sing their usual song. Others will use it to either make an impression or a bad one or worse none at all (both Sylvia Lim and Steve Chia did a good job in creating a good impression).

 

[loudhailer]

I'm unhappy with this system and hope our oppo can debate with PAP on that issue during campaigning period. They should tell voters at rallies why oppo have 33% votes but only 2 seats, we need PR, maybe oppo can gain more sympathy votes this way.

To use your logic, UK parties should have cried foul when 35% of the vote gets you 60% of the seats? PR has been shown again and again to cause much instability.

 

[Sideswipe]

RP will probably get at least two NCMPs since they will probably be amongst the top GRC performers. In Parliament, you compare the performance of GMS or CTL with that of KJ or for that matter Gerald Giam or Glenda Han or Perry Tong if they are still in the running and who do you think is going to impress the people? No prizes for guessing.

To use your logic, UK parties should have cried foul when 35% of the vote gets you 60% of the seats? PR has been shown again and again to cause much instability.

these are easily your best 2 posts out of 111 posts.
you always "talk cock with OA", my impressions of you are all those shit troll posts.
you actually can give good opinions here.

 

[jw5]

Swing voters are in fact a larger %age than u think.

You probably thot it is small because u forgot to take into consideration in each of the previous few election, there were unexpected issues that sidetracked voters. 1997 was cheng san. 2001 was global terrorism and recession. 2006 was james gomez.

Don't be fooled by randomness. swing votes are in fact the key to victory, as previous elected oppo MPs like JBJ, Ling H.D., etc, have shown.

The fact that there were such issues is never unexpected, it's only the nature of the issues that are different.
Perhaps our definition of swing voters or middle ground are different. I don't consider those people who are looking for the slightest reason, excuse or issue to vote pap as a true swing voter. He would still be included in groups 1 to 8. A true swing voter has to be really undecided and be able to weigh all the benefits or disbenefits to himself and to the country of voting for a candidate or a party. Someone who simply takes the pap's word that a candidate is lying or prejudiced or perhaps that the candidate has a degree or wears a tie, is just looking for a flimsy excuse.

Understand your point about previous opposition victories like JBJ and LHD and agree that the real swing vote was strong then. My point is that I think it has changed and become smaller. The hardcore pap has grown.

 

[loudhailer]

these are easily your best 2 posts out of 111 posts.
you always "talk cock with OA", my impressions of you are all those shit troll posts.
you actually can give good opinions here.

As long as I don't get agitated by the "Chee Soon Juan is God" and "Everybody who doesn't behave like Chee Soon Juan is a pappy dog" posts. :p

 

[scroobal]

You always had a good feel of political parties.

Concur with everything absolutely. My points were the same.

 

[jw5]

I'm unhappy with this system and hope our oppo can debate with PAP on that issue during campaigning period. They should tell voters at rallies why oppo have 33% votes but only 2 seats, we need PR, maybe oppo can gain more sympathy votes this way.

PAP wouldn't abolish GRC too, 99% but I see our oppositions often calling for abolition of GRC - their websites, LTK in parliament. so why can't they make a public statement on PR unless they don't want it too.

The opposition should perhaps lobby about PR but personally, I think they are correctly targetting the more appalling item of grc and the bewildering reason.
Why can't one candidate contest against another candidate in one constituency? If they are really concerned about minority representation, then have certain constituencies as minority represented or have it legislated that a party which fields a certain number of candidates need a certain % of minorities.

It's a good thing that what the brilliant old statesman once mentioned about considering giving some people 3 votes and others one, never came to fruition. Otherwise, it would have been another slap in the face for democracy.

 

[scroobal]

I sense the same.It comes close to the Eunos equation.

I believe RP will win an NCMP seat.

 

[loudhailer]

Understand your point about previous opposition victories like JBJ and LHD and agree that the real swing vote was strong then. My point is that I think it has changed and become smaller. The hardcore pap has grown.

Nothing to do with hardcore PAP or hardcore opposition. They will always be there.

Under the first-past-the-post system, you merely need to please 1 vote more than 50% of the people. Everything else is bonus. And any politician will tell you that when you try to please everybody, you please nobody. And in a first-past-the-post system, 66% is a big percentage (SBF forumers can scream till the cows come how about unopposed seats but the truth is that the opposition will contest the WEAKER and not the STRONGER seats, so if all seats were contested the percentage would have been higher than 66%).

 

[scroobal]

That is why I get upset with him because he struggles to clear the first hurdle. He does not even understand the concept of politics or political system 101. You being patient and kind might help turn him around.

Told you a few times before bro, the fact is the system now is first past the post. And the pap have no reason, incentive or decency to even consider changing as long as it suits them.
They really want to stay in power this way.
You said before that any group of people who care for the country and want elections to be as fair as possible would want to change. This is precisely the reason why it won't change.

 

[loudhailer]

That is why I get upset with him because he struggles to clear the first hurdle. He does not even understand the concept of politics or political system 101. You being patient and kind might help turn him around.

What is wrong with first-past-the-post? US has it. UK has it. Australia has it. Canada has it. Does anyone deny that any of the foregoing are undemocratic?

 

[chobolan]

these are easily your best 2 posts out of 111 posts.
you always "talk cock with OA", my impressions of you are all those shit troll posts.
you actually can give good opinions here.

Of course she can. Didn't i tell you all openly that loudhailer is aka cass888? It's because she can debate maturely that's why the assing stopped. The only thing i find it's spam are the same messages she carries - that mongrel who bit his masters loudhailer blah blah ...

 

[loudhailer]

Of course she can. Didn't i tell you all openly that loudhailer is aka cass888? It's because she can debate maturely that's why the assing stopped. The only thing i find it's spam are the same messages she carries - that mongrel who bit his masters loudhailer blah blah ...

Is it spam if the message is different? Take a look at all of cass888's messages. There has always been a point to them. Just because a spade is called a spade and a MONGREL who bit his masters' hands LOUDHAILER chee soon juan is called a MONGREL who bit his masters' hands LOUDHAILER chee soon juan doesn't imply spam.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Proportional/Proportionate Representation will only be consider by PAP if and only if PAP starts to lose a few GRCs.

It is not an impossible option for them but there must be a push factor like losing ministers along with their GRCs.

Goh Meng Seng