"Barisan Sosialis" returns in Singapore

[Velma]

Socialist front to unite opposition?

Not even SDA managed to do that.

Opposition unity is not necessary actually. What we need is a strong opposition, not necessarily a united one.

To unite all Opposition parties, you need a charismatic fellow. Malaysia Pakatan Rakyat is lucky to have Anwar and hence, the coalition stays strong despite a few problems here and there. These new guys on the block are too ambitious, they should concentrate on strengthening their own party before thinking of an union. Nobody will want to unite under a party with no credibility. Even the Opposition is unable to unite during their 'prime' time during the 80s.

 

[Perspective]

Our differences in semantics aside, I believe hardcore PAP has shrunk.

To evaluate voter mindset is more complex that merely dividing them into 3 categories.

There is the one that likes the PAP. There is the one that fears instability or trouble hence default goes PAP. There is the one that votes any opposition. There is the one that goes for only certain opposition. There is the one that considers what happened in 5 years. There is the one that looks at own situation to decide. Easily, you can reach 10 categories.

I believe what you're saying is, the first has shrunk. The second, however, may not have shrunk but in fact grown and votes go to PAP all the same. JW5 probably thinks they are hardcore. But however, they are considered half a swing voter because when they really suffer under the system, who cares about instability and fear?

 

[Perspective]

There are many reasons people join or do not join opposition parties even when they are dissatisfied with the current status quo.

I only know that those sitting on the fence now will only join any opposition parties when there is successful examples. Just like WP back in post-GE2006 situation. Even though WP did not manage to win any additional seats in Aljunied GRC, but people see hope and potential success. That is why there is a sudden surge in membership. It is up to the leadership to manage this membership to grow the party further.

Similarly, I believe that the only way for NSP to recruit more people, be it Chinese, Malay or Indian, we need to showcase a successful model of campaigning and electoral victories. Thus, the key lies in winning seats in the coming elections.

Goh Meng Seng

There is also one more point for people to select which party to join. It would be the conditions or appeal by the time they are ready to take the plunge. In 1995 many joined NSP when both SDP and WP were in the doldrums. In 2000 many joined SDP because it formed a youth wing. 2006, WP. 2010, the new fresh RP. Those who joined WP in 2006 might have joined RP if they decided to take the plunge in 2010 instead, and vice versa.

For most, it depends on by then, what you would think was the best place to contribute. If Sylvia Lim had decided to take the plunge 20 years ago when she was in her 20s like Lee Wai Leng, she would have joined SDP. If you decided to enter politics only after 40, it might be RP and you might never have joined WP. Things are fluid. Interesting?

What NSP needs is the appeal. Of course, the mess in other parties helps, but that is not something within one's control anyway.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

To unite all Opposition parties, you need a charismatic fellow. Malaysia Pakatan Rakyat is lucky to have Anwar and hence, the coalition stays strong despite a few problems here and there. These new guys on the block are too ambitious, they should concentrate on strengthening their own party before thinking of an union. Nobody will want to unite under a party with no credibility. Even the Opposition is unable to unite during their 'prime' time during the 80s.

Agree ... .. . . ....

 

[Sideswipe]

Swing voters are in fact a larger %age than u think.

Don't be fooled by randomness. swing votes are in fact the key to victory, as previous elected oppo MPs like JBJ, Ling H.D., etc, have shown.

apart from LTK and CST election success, only 3 oppo have won seats in past 40 years, 2 lost seats at next GE after 1st victory in previous.
think it is more randomness than swing voters.

 

[scroobal]

If you took all elections where all opposition candidates polled 40% and higher, you see a clear pattern of swing voters and you can more or less attribute the reasons for that swing. Ling's case is a good example where the swing was massive. The main factors for a swing are
1) candidates' pull or push factors
2) party's pull or push factors.
3) issues at hand

In Ling's case it was a push factor on his part that led to the massive swing. He stood against a newbie that no one can could tell from a bar of soap, not known for his educational or professional or even possessed any quality in both, age was certainly was not a factor. PAP got the ground report right and put a most uncharismatic person on their slate and won big.

The reason I suggested 40% is that you have a bigger number to see the pattern. The potential swing factor is roughly 30 to 40% in nearly every democratic elections around the world. There is no such thing as randomness in politics.

apart from LTK and CST election success, only 3 oppo have won seats in past 40 years, 2 lost seats at next GE after 1st victory in previous.
think it is more randomness than swing voters.

 

[Sideswipe]

The reason I suggested 40% is that you have a bigger number to see the pattern. The potential swing factor is roughly 30 to 40% in nearly every democratic elections around the world. There is no such thing as randomness in politics.

you make a valid point.