Its seems to me now the PAP has gone a different route in the dealing with the issue of aging HDB flats. I had hypothesize previously that what the HDB will do is to activate the clause in their 99 year lease and get people out of their aging flats into new ones at a subsidized price and with a new 99 year lease. Hence, enslaving them for another 99 years. This is the pattern chosen for prior flat take backs as in the case of the original Queenstown estate. New estates planned at Tengah and the old Bidadari sites would be where occupants of older flats be moved while their old blocks are demolished to make way for higher buildings with increased density.
After going over LHL's speech (see below), I see now that a new strategy is going in. What the PAP will now do is to "upgrade" flats twice, targeted at their 30 and 60 years lifespan. This is what I can see from his speech.
1) The items mentioned by LHL "An essential upgrade, HIP fixes maintenance problems, including spalling concrete, ceiling leaks and damaged pipes", are not upgrades at all. Rather, they are maintenance and repair issues and in some case, essential maintenance. I can add at least 2 high ticket items not on his list, and this would be lifts and the roof. An upgrade would be say, adding a second lift to the building, or installing water sprinklers in the whole building, etc. These items are maintenance and repair items essential to the continued occupancy of the building, and hence essential to the HDB to honour their 99 year lease. Without these maintenance, the block would simply be condemned. From what I can see of this list, there are NO upgrades, only maintenance and repairs. Nice lie, LHL.
2) Its mentioned by LHL, that flat dwellers will pay as little as 5% of the costs for these fake upgrades. Remember when they said they will give you back your CPF at 55? I don't trust that number and I don't believe it. The repairs are all handled by HDB contractors, and unless they make the winning bid completely transparent, we would not know how much 5% really is. Repairs costing $1 million to a block might be inflated to $5 million by the HDB, and hence 5% of $5 million would be $250,000 borned by the flat dweller or 25% of the HDB's cost. LHL mentioned too that some people will pay as little as a few hundred dollars. Right. I will believe that when I see that.
3) On the topic of flat dwellers paying 5%. What's up with that? A tenant should not be paying anything at all for maintenance and repairs, especially when they do not own the unit. The landlord has the responsibility to upkeep and maintain his unit. 100% of the cost should be borned by the HDB.
4) I still maintain that many blocks will not last 99 years, regardless of how much repairs and maintenance you do to them. Plastering over cracks in the concrete with cement and what not does not fix any underlying structural issues. Past the 60 year mark, many HDB blocks should be torned down rather then repaired. Taking one example, that of spalling concrete. There are many underlying reasons for this. The concrete mixture might have been faulty when the block was constructed. And concrete being porous, within this high humidity tropical environment, likely, the concrete absorbed the moisture and ended up rusting the rebar. This rebar expanded, and hence the concrete spalled. Fixing this is not easy at all, and its very expensive. You have to call in a forensic engineer to figure out the root cost. If a confluence of issues appear together at say the 60 year mark, eg. lift has to be replaced, roof has to be replaced, the whole building has to be repiped, concrete spalling has to be fixed, etc. I don't see how its feasible to do all this. Demolition is the only solution. By contrast, the gold standard for solid construction, the Empire State Building, is 88 years. Looking at it, do you think a HDB block build with the cheapest materials, cheap labour, and a cookie cutter architectural plan will last even that long?
5) The fact that the PAP are so keen on keeping this old buildings up, means to me that the new estates planned and still on the drawing boards, are aimed at future new FT PRs. They will march towards the goal of a 10 million population, with a combination of massive refurbishing of old blocks and construction of new blocks. This 6.9 million population White Paper and the future 10 million population, based on what LHL has said, is very much on. Good luck to all of us.
6) Finally, we look at another LHL lie. The value of the flat will be retained as their leases run down. This is not possible. A 15 year old flat purchased today for $600,000 cannot retain its value at age 60 simply because no bank will finance the purchase of it. With only 39 years remaining on the list, no bank financing available, and even if it was "upgraded", a buyer would have to pay cash for it. Not many will have the ability to pay $600K in today's money, which could be $1 million in 45 year's time given inflation. This entire "upgrade" lie is being pawned off on the public as Govt Largesse when in effect, its the HDB's duty as owner to maintain and repair the blocks.
SINGAPORE - All Housing Board flats can expect to be upgraded twice during their 99-year lifespan under the newly-expanded Home Improvement Programme (HIP), as part of the Government's public housing redevelopment initiative.
In a nutshell, all flats will be upgraded when they reach about 30 years of age, and again when they are about 60 to 70 years old.
The HIP, which was introduced in 2007, will be expanded to another 230,000 flats built between 1987 and 1997 when the flats are about 30 years old, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his National Day Rally speech in English on Sunday (Aug 19).
This is on top of about 320,000 flats built up to 1986 that have not undergone the Main Upgrading Programme (MUP), but that are already eligible for upgrading under HIP. MUP was launched in the 1990s and completed in 2011.
"We launched the HIP 10 years ago. The final batch of HIP flats will be announced by next year. So within a few years, all flats eligible for HIP will have been balloted, passed, executed and upgraded. That means altogether 450,000 flats upgraded under MUP plus HIP," PM Lee said.
The first round of upgrading which includes flats built up to 1997 will start soon, PM Lee said, adding: "Pasir Ris will get HIP, and so will Yishun, Tampines, Jurong and several other estates."
Further, once the flats reach 60 to 70 years of age, they will be eligible for upgrading a second time. This second round is expected to start in about 10 years' time.
The Government pays up to 95 per cent of the upgrading cost, so residents pay as little as a few hundred dollars for the upgrading.
"The first HIP will cost the Government more than $4 billion. HIP II will probably cost even more, because the flats will be twice as old by then. But it is well justified and we will do it as long as MOF (Finance Ministry) has the money," PM Lee said.
An essential upgrade, HIP fixes maintenance problems, including spalling concrete, ceiling leaks and damaged pipes.
"We upgrade the electrical supply too... because more families have air-conditioners, washing machines, computers and now, personal mobility devices (PMDs) needing to be charged," PM Lee said.
"Not surprising that after upgrading, the flat value usually goes up," PM Lee said.
He added that after the first round of upgrading, the flats should be good for another 30 to 40 years. The second round will be done at about the 60 to 70-year mark.
"We are determined not to let our public housing degenerate into ragged squalid slums, which has happened in many other cities," PM Lee said.
HIP II will "keep the flats safe and liveable, and also help them retain their value as their leases run down. It should see the flats through to the end of their leases," he said.
After going over LHL's speech (see below), I see now that a new strategy is going in. What the PAP will now do is to "upgrade" flats twice, targeted at their 30 and 60 years lifespan. This is what I can see from his speech.
1) The items mentioned by LHL "An essential upgrade, HIP fixes maintenance problems, including spalling concrete, ceiling leaks and damaged pipes", are not upgrades at all. Rather, they are maintenance and repair issues and in some case, essential maintenance. I can add at least 2 high ticket items not on his list, and this would be lifts and the roof. An upgrade would be say, adding a second lift to the building, or installing water sprinklers in the whole building, etc. These items are maintenance and repair items essential to the continued occupancy of the building, and hence essential to the HDB to honour their 99 year lease. Without these maintenance, the block would simply be condemned. From what I can see of this list, there are NO upgrades, only maintenance and repairs. Nice lie, LHL.
2) Its mentioned by LHL, that flat dwellers will pay as little as 5% of the costs for these fake upgrades. Remember when they said they will give you back your CPF at 55? I don't trust that number and I don't believe it. The repairs are all handled by HDB contractors, and unless they make the winning bid completely transparent, we would not know how much 5% really is. Repairs costing $1 million to a block might be inflated to $5 million by the HDB, and hence 5% of $5 million would be $250,000 borned by the flat dweller or 25% of the HDB's cost. LHL mentioned too that some people will pay as little as a few hundred dollars. Right. I will believe that when I see that.
3) On the topic of flat dwellers paying 5%. What's up with that? A tenant should not be paying anything at all for maintenance and repairs, especially when they do not own the unit. The landlord has the responsibility to upkeep and maintain his unit. 100% of the cost should be borned by the HDB.
4) I still maintain that many blocks will not last 99 years, regardless of how much repairs and maintenance you do to them. Plastering over cracks in the concrete with cement and what not does not fix any underlying structural issues. Past the 60 year mark, many HDB blocks should be torned down rather then repaired. Taking one example, that of spalling concrete. There are many underlying reasons for this. The concrete mixture might have been faulty when the block was constructed. And concrete being porous, within this high humidity tropical environment, likely, the concrete absorbed the moisture and ended up rusting the rebar. This rebar expanded, and hence the concrete spalled. Fixing this is not easy at all, and its very expensive. You have to call in a forensic engineer to figure out the root cost. If a confluence of issues appear together at say the 60 year mark, eg. lift has to be replaced, roof has to be replaced, the whole building has to be repiped, concrete spalling has to be fixed, etc. I don't see how its feasible to do all this. Demolition is the only solution. By contrast, the gold standard for solid construction, the Empire State Building, is 88 years. Looking at it, do you think a HDB block build with the cheapest materials, cheap labour, and a cookie cutter architectural plan will last even that long?
5) The fact that the PAP are so keen on keeping this old buildings up, means to me that the new estates planned and still on the drawing boards, are aimed at future new FT PRs. They will march towards the goal of a 10 million population, with a combination of massive refurbishing of old blocks and construction of new blocks. This 6.9 million population White Paper and the future 10 million population, based on what LHL has said, is very much on. Good luck to all of us.
6) Finally, we look at another LHL lie. The value of the flat will be retained as their leases run down. This is not possible. A 15 year old flat purchased today for $600,000 cannot retain its value at age 60 simply because no bank will finance the purchase of it. With only 39 years remaining on the list, no bank financing available, and even if it was "upgraded", a buyer would have to pay cash for it. Not many will have the ability to pay $600K in today's money, which could be $1 million in 45 year's time given inflation. This entire "upgrade" lie is being pawned off on the public as Govt Largesse when in effect, its the HDB's duty as owner to maintain and repair the blocks.
SINGAPORE - All Housing Board flats can expect to be upgraded twice during their 99-year lifespan under the newly-expanded Home Improvement Programme (HIP), as part of the Government's public housing redevelopment initiative.
In a nutshell, all flats will be upgraded when they reach about 30 years of age, and again when they are about 60 to 70 years old.
The HIP, which was introduced in 2007, will be expanded to another 230,000 flats built between 1987 and 1997 when the flats are about 30 years old, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his National Day Rally speech in English on Sunday (Aug 19).
This is on top of about 320,000 flats built up to 1986 that have not undergone the Main Upgrading Programme (MUP), but that are already eligible for upgrading under HIP. MUP was launched in the 1990s and completed in 2011.
"We launched the HIP 10 years ago. The final batch of HIP flats will be announced by next year. So within a few years, all flats eligible for HIP will have been balloted, passed, executed and upgraded. That means altogether 450,000 flats upgraded under MUP plus HIP," PM Lee said.
The first round of upgrading which includes flats built up to 1997 will start soon, PM Lee said, adding: "Pasir Ris will get HIP, and so will Yishun, Tampines, Jurong and several other estates."
Further, once the flats reach 60 to 70 years of age, they will be eligible for upgrading a second time. This second round is expected to start in about 10 years' time.
The Government pays up to 95 per cent of the upgrading cost, so residents pay as little as a few hundred dollars for the upgrading.
"The first HIP will cost the Government more than $4 billion. HIP II will probably cost even more, because the flats will be twice as old by then. But it is well justified and we will do it as long as MOF (Finance Ministry) has the money," PM Lee said.
An essential upgrade, HIP fixes maintenance problems, including spalling concrete, ceiling leaks and damaged pipes.
"We upgrade the electrical supply too... because more families have air-conditioners, washing machines, computers and now, personal mobility devices (PMDs) needing to be charged," PM Lee said.
"Not surprising that after upgrading, the flat value usually goes up," PM Lee said.
He added that after the first round of upgrading, the flats should be good for another 30 to 40 years. The second round will be done at about the 60 to 70-year mark.
"We are determined not to let our public housing degenerate into ragged squalid slums, which has happened in many other cities," PM Lee said.
HIP II will "keep the flats safe and liveable, and also help them retain their value as their leases run down. It should see the flats through to the end of their leases," he said.
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