A Challenge to SDP

[LordElrond]

If SDP/WP insists on joining in the fight, PAP wins. The chances of WP/SDP winning is so slim that i would suggest don't even waste your resources.

If either SDP/WP steps aside, the remaining party has a very strong chance to beat PAP.

SDP supporters (or pseudo supporters) have been bitching around for so long that they are the true opposition party, they are the effective opposition party. All sorts of accusations have been hurled against WP, so much so that PAP supporters have consumed a few tons of popcorn sitting at the side enjoying the show. Nowhere in the world have we ever seen one opposition party so acrimoniously against another - most opposition parties focus on attacking the ruling party. This is uniquely Singapore.

If i were LTK i would withdraw WP candidate at the last minute and give SDP a real chance to win. It is a good investment - this "olive branch" will appease a good portion of SDP supporters who has always felt unappreciated, that they can do a better job than WP, that they will have people's MANDATE. This is a turning point for opposition politics - their maturity is put to test. Seriously WP does not need this seat - it makes no difference to WP. I will go as far as suggesting WP asks its supporters to vote for SDP for the larger purpose of opposition strength.

However nothing comes free in life. If WP steps aside and give SDP their blessings, SDP needs to reciprocate with some commitments:
1) That it will win the seat
2) If it fails to win the seat, it will have to acknowledge their brand of opposition politics is rejected by Sinkies in favour of WP
3) If it fails to win the seat, it will ask its supporters to stop making unfounded accusations against WP and cease all their relentless attacks against WP

This is just my challenge... but if it does happen... does SDP dare to take up the challenge? does SDP have the balls?

 

[zhihau]

still preferred the SDP in the days under Chiam... :o:o:o

 

[wwabbit]

I think you'd have to be way too optimistic to think that Punggol East would fall to the opposition even with a one-on-one fight against the PAP.
If we use the Hougang BE as a benchmark, where the PAP earned a 2.7% swing from YSL's infidelity, I would think a 3.5% swing would just be the best we can hope for, bringing PAP's vote share down to 51%.

In a SDP vs PAP straight fight, SDP has zero chance of winning. The GE2011 results show that the voters are more likely to vote for an unknown WP candidate than the best SDP candidate.

In a WP vs PAP straight fight, even if WP gets all the SDA votes and the optimistic 3.5% swing, they would get at most 49% of the votes. I won't fancy their chance of winning. That's assuming they field a candidate of LLL calibre though. If they take choose to field YJJ or pull a second CSM out of the hat, then there might actually be a small chance of making up another 1% swing.

 

[Bougainvillea]

Hi LordElrond,

I registered just to reply to your post.

I am not for or against SDP or WP. But why do you need to make a challenge to SDP and not WP? In my opinion, (and to be fair) it is usually the WP supporters who are doing the bitching.

Thanks

 

[billisnotathome]

Hi LordElrond,

I registered just to reply to your post.

I am not for or against SDP or WP. But why do you need to make a challenge to SDP and not WP? In my opinion, (and to be fair) it is usually the WP supporters who are doing the bitching.

Thanks

Why SDP and not WP? The SDP's best team could not even muster 40 percent of the votes in Holland-Bukit Timah. The WP already has a 40 odd percent foothold in PE, even with a "second tier" candidate like LLL. Do the math...

 

[metalmickey]

One way to look at this is from a self-interest perspective.

From the perspective of the WP or the SDP, they just want to get their man in parliament. And even if they don't, they want the exposure that an election campaign can get. For the SDP, they don't want to be left out if and when Singapore becomes a two party system.

For the people, they want an opposition party member in parliament. And thus they want a straight fight between two parties. So the people and the opposition parties are not agreeing here.

And for the SDP, there is a dilemma - it's easy to withdraw from a challenge. They can say that they walked the ground to trick the PAP into thinking there's a multi-corner fight. Thing is, if they withdraw, they might disappoint their own supporters. They might disappoint all those residents who saw them walking the ground. And since they never had much of a presence in Punggol East, the residents might think that they are fair weathered friends. But at least the horse trading system that made sure that there are very few multi-corner fights is perfectly intact. Which might actually be to their advantage, since it means that the SDP could actually send a strong candidate to an SMC and win. Unless, somebody else breaks the horse trading system, which is entirely possible. Thing is - if people knew how to pull out of a challenge, Tan Cheng Bok would be in the Istana right now. We heard what he had to say about the AIM issue - he is worth at least 1 opposition member in parliament. Tan Jee Say supporters would say that Tan Cheng Bok is not "independent" enough - not true, and the fact is that people are only saying that if Tan Jee Say didn't run, Tan Cheng Bok would be president. Nobody would ever say the other way around - that if Tan Cheng Bok didn't run, Tan Jee Say will be president. Only upside of this is that Tan Jee Say has opened the way for himself to run in the next cycle.

If they participate and find themselves trounced, it won't be good for them either. The worst thing is that they have opened the door to multi-corner fights, and in a new system, the opposition would leave Aljunied and Hougang alone, but everywhere else is a multi-cornered fight. The result is that GE 2016 is exactly the same as GE 2011: WP gets Aljunied and Hougang, WP doesn't get East Coast or Joo Chiat, nobody else gets anything. But the non-WP like it because it means that they don't get left behind by WP.

In any case, it will be hard for me to predict how many people are contesting this by election.

 

[ray_of_hope]

still preferred the SDP in the days under Chiam... :o:o:o

Chiam is a very god man. i cannot understand why they did such a hatchet job on him. Even after having suffered strokes some are still launching verbal attacks on him.

 

[metalmickey]

Chiam is a very god man. i cannot understand why they did such a hatchet job on him. Even after having suffered strokes some are still launching verbal attacks on him.

Some (not all) people very buisong Chiam. He's against everything they stand for. And at the end of the day, he will be honoured for being one of the few opposition parliamentarians, not them.

He compromises and walks the fine line between being a thorn in PAP's flesh, and not going to the Chee Soon Juan extreme of confrontational style. He is a great believer of "discretion is the better part of valour".

In the infantry, when you are charging a layer of concertina wire, the standard technique is that there's this guy who will lie down on the wire for everybody to cross by walking on his back. Chiam is that guy.

But if you contrast Chiam with Low Thia Khiang then he will pale in comparison. Both of them kept their heads down. But while Low built up WP to be a force to be reckoned with, Chiam alienated people in SDP, then SDA, then SPP, even though as an MP, he was relatively well behaved. So Chiam See Tong is half a cup full or half a cup empty. If Chiam See Tong were Low Thia Khiang, we'd have two potentially powerful opposition parties on the rise, not one. Somebody in his place could have done better.

 

[ray_of_hope]

Some (not all) people very buisong Chiam. He's against everything they stand for. And at the end of the day, he will be honoured for being one of the few opposition parliamentarians, not them.

He compromises and walks the fine line between being a thorn in PAP's flesh, and not going to the Chee Soon Juan extreme of confrontational style. He is a great believer of "discretion is the better part of valour".

In the infantry, when you are charging a layer of concertina wire, the standard technique is that there's this guy who will lie down on the wire for everybody to cross by walking on his back. Chiam is that guy.

But if you contrast Chiam with Low Thia Khiang then he will pale in comparison. Both of them kept their heads down. But while Low built up WP to be a force to be reckoned with, Chiam alienated people in SDP, then SDA, then SPP, even though as an MP, he was relatively well behaved. So Chiam See Tong is half a cup full or half a cup empty. If Chiam See Tong were Low Thia Khiang, we'd have two potentially powerful opposition parties on the rise, not one. Somebody in his place could have done better.

If Chiam was still in charge of SDP then chances are that by 2011 the party might have already had more than a dozen MPs.

 

[metalmickey]

If Chiam was still in charge of SDP then chances are that by 2011 the party might have already had more than a dozen MPs.

No, that's quite unlikely. Chiam has proven time and again (SDP, SDA, SPP) that he can't lead opposition parties. Even Chee Soon Juan is a better secretary general than he is. Chee Soon Juan was never able to appeal to average Singaporean voters, but he appealed to plenty of NGOs and built a very distinctive identity for SDP. The younger Chee Soon Juan may not have been a great leader but he was definitely not the only SDP guy who couldn't stand Chiam See Tong. Chiam See Tong could be a member of parliament, and Chee Soon Juan could run a party. If they were able to work together they could have come up with something. But their ideas were too different.

Maybe he was unlucky in 1991 in that he found himself saddled with bozos like Cheo Chai Chen and Ling How Doong. But back then the opposition was not able to attract capable people, unlike now.

 

[SgParent]

still preferred the SDP in the days under Chiam... :o:o:o

Agree. Whatever happened happened for a reason best known to those that had a hand in THAT event.

 

[marjojohn]

Never trust SDP....CSJ is Vasoo's man. First he tore SDP apart when it's rising under Chiam now he's tasked to bring down WP. He's fed by Pappies...he went jail got TV and books to pass time. All just eye wash!!! Never trust him....cos i knew him when he's young.

 

[cass888]

The fucking MONGREL who bit his masters' hands LOUDHAILER chee soon juan has got nothing to do with PAP.

Never trust SDP....CSJ is Vasoo's man. First he tore SDP apart when it's rising under Chiam now he's tasked to bring down WP. He's fed by Pappies...he went jail got TV and books to pass time. All just eye wash!!! Never trust him....cos i knew him when he's young.

 

[andyfisher]

well said LordElrond, insightful analysis

 

[yellowarse]

Never trust him....cos i knew him when he's young.

You from ACS? Many of CSJ's classmates say that he was very quiet in school, not the type to stand out from the crowd. True?

 

[watchman8]

The fucking MONGREL who bit his masters' hands LOUDHAILER chee soon juan has got nothing to do with PAP.

Too many coincidences with CSJ. First, he dismantled chiam's SDP from within. Then he single handedly tarnished the opposition image from the late 90s to early 2000s. Next he brought in TJS, who went on to make sure TCB cannot win TT. Now CSJ is leading sdp into three cornered fight in punggol.

How many strikes does average people need before they can see the true colors of a person?

 

[yellowarse]

No, that's quite unlikely. Chiam has proven time and again (SDP, SDA, SPP) that he can't lead opposition parties.

True. Chiam may be a nice guy and connects well with his constituents, but he is difficult to work with, not least because of his authoritarian ways and brook-no-dissent approach with the CEC. It is well documented that Ling and Cheo could not get along with him and wanted him out.

CSJ, a political newbie at the time, was merely caught in between the battle of seniors and was conveniently used as a 'puppet' to oust CST. He actually persuaded CST in person to return, but there was so much bad blood that there was no turning back for Chiam.

 

[marjojohn]

You from ACS? Many of CSJ's classmates say that he was very quiet in school, not the type to stand out from the crowd. True?

He's from ACS. I saw him during NS...he got the habit of shouting every now and then ...exactly what you saw when he shouted at the then PM Goh at Jurong West market some years back that make the opposition look bad and up the PAppies votes!!! Just look at the past and you can read it. All things he did was to make opposition look rebellious, destructive and bad!!! He's carved for that kind of role....he got no balls in real person.

 

[metalmickey]

Too many coincidences with CSJ. First, he dismantled chiam's SDP from within. Then he single handedly tarnished the opposition image from the late 90s to early 2000s. Next he brought in TJS, who went on to make sure TCB cannot win TT. Now CSJ is leading sdp into three cornered fight in punggol.

How many strikes does average people need before they can see the true colors of a person?

I think I only believe the first one. Second one is he can't help being himself. Bringing in TJS - I don't know how TJS contesting in the GE was ever going to tarnish the opposition's reputation. And if he was sec gen of SDP, he wouldn't have been happy with TJS run road to go contest in the PE - he didn't endorse TJS as presidential election candidate, that was Nicole Seah.

An alternative explanation is that everything he did was consistent with a set of values. Chee Soon Juan has always been Chee Soon Juan.

 

[TuaGow]

Too many coincidences with CSJ. First, he dismantled chiam's SDP from within. Then he single handedly tarnished the opposition image from the late 90s to early 2000s. Next he brought in TJS, who went on to make sure TCB cannot win TT. Now CSJ is leading sdp into three cornered fight in punggol.

How many strikes does average people need before they can see the true colors of a person?

these are not coincidence, csj is just behaving what he truly is: a untrustworthy weasel.