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4 Corners fight likey in Punggol East GE
- Thread starter alantan27
- Start date
ben pwee already said he not contesting
I dont think desmond will contest, never heard him doing walkabout
in multi cornered fights, me just like to see PAP's vote going below 50% mark.
last PE saw TT & TCB with 30 odd points, TJS 20 odd points, shows hardcore PAP supporters around 30 odd point, moderates 40 odd points, hardcore opposition supporters 20 odd points.
me welcome a multi cornered fight, better send all the best candidate! HUAT AH!!!
TCB was half PAP.....and president cant do fuck...
I will not read too much into it...
TCB is not a proxy for WP.... TJS also not a direct proxy for SDP...
public perception from various kopitiams mah :o:o:o
You are right. In an MCF each party had better send in their absolute best candidate, or risk getting mauled so bad they won't see 2016 at all.
The oppo will not win an MCF, but at least give the PAP a black eye by forcing them to win with a less than simple majority. Would be really bruising if PAP won by 45% only
The oppo will not win an MCF, but at least give the PAP a black eye by forcing them to win with a less than simple majority. Would be really bruising if PAP won by 45% only
My prediction
PAP 49%
WP 38%
SDP 10%
RP+SDA 3%
PAP 49%
WP 38%
SDP 10%
RP+SDA 3%
bwahahahahahahaa... KJ is 90% sure of joining the fray? he can also be 90% sure of losing his deposit! thank you for your contributions towards nation building
You prefer a dictator to a gay?
My prediction is based on looking at the results from GE2011 and predicting the swings.
PAP's 54.5% from GE2011. Based on Hougang BE2012 results where there was a swing of 2.7% against the incumbent party towards the incumbent losing candidate, I estimate that the swing against PAP will be about 3.5% taking into account other factors like AIM. All 3.5% will go to WP, being the moderate opposition party.
WP's 41% from GE2011. Most of the voters will stick with WP. There will be some that may be unhappy with WP's supposed quietness, but they will do the math and know they should stick with WP. Around 2.5% would be unhappy enough to switch to SDP.
SDA's 4.5% from GE2011. About a third (1.5%) of them will see the light and know to support WP this time. The rest hate WP enough to randomly vote for another opposition party (split 1% each)
So this is my estimate for now:
PAP: 51%
WP: 43.5%
SDP: 3.5%
RP: 1%
SDA: 1%
PAP's 54.5% from GE2011. Based on Hougang BE2012 results where there was a swing of 2.7% against the incumbent party towards the incumbent losing candidate, I estimate that the swing against PAP will be about 3.5% taking into account other factors like AIM. All 3.5% will go to WP, being the moderate opposition party.
WP's 41% from GE2011. Most of the voters will stick with WP. There will be some that may be unhappy with WP's supposed quietness, but they will do the math and know they should stick with WP. Around 2.5% would be unhappy enough to switch to SDP.
SDA's 4.5% from GE2011. About a third (1.5%) of them will see the light and know to support WP this time. The rest hate WP enough to randomly vote for another opposition party (split 1% each)
So this is my estimate for now:
PAP: 51%
WP: 43.5%
SDP: 3.5%
RP: 1%
SDA: 1%
shaping to be straight fight between PAP and WP...
SDP 50-50 to contest in my opinion...CSJ as usual very unpredicitable..
RP.. just making sure noone forgets about them.. he aint got the guts or charm like his dad
the rest should consider if they can get their deposits..
SDP 50-50 to contest in my opinion...CSJ as usual very unpredicitable..
RP.. just making sure noone forgets about them.. he aint got the guts or charm like his dad
the rest should consider if they can get their deposits..
The first sensible thing I've seen you write.
TCB is a PAP man through and through, but in the 'other' camp. He was, and will never be, a proxy for the opposition, despite the wet dreams of some WP supporters.
TJS has broken ranks with the SDP ... right from the beginning he was more independent than people gave him credit for and he's never tried to hide the fact that he's his own man ... not beholden to any party but to his own convictions about opposition unity.
3 corner too risky. Should be 4 corner. After all PE had proven that 4 is a good number.
This BE appears to be a distraction, a training session for their new generation and an experiment to find out :
1. how people will react to a new incumbent (with qualification) against an ex-contestant (i.e. the current values of the respective brand names)
2. To find out the effectiveness of Haban Singh type of wayang in present day.
I think they are pretty confident of a win. It is the actual % score that they are more interested. However, I must say that the strategy of their new team is not too sound. The use of strategies like "it is me", "do not give me sympathy vote" and "I was once poor"... is not what many would buy now. With internet, it is a new ball game. If they don't change tactic, the result could be a shock to them.
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A 4-corner fight involving the incumbent and 3 major opposition parties does have its merits:
1. It shows how much support for the PAP has slipped (or increased) since the promises of GE2011;
2. It is a good indicator of the relative strengths of the various opposition parties vis-a-vis voter support.
Both have ramifications for GE2016: the former on PAP's strategies (including tilting the playing field even further); the latter on the prospects of opposition collaboration/horse-trading.
1. It shows how much support for the PAP has slipped (or increased) since the promises of GE2011;
2. It is a good indicator of the relative strengths of the various opposition parties vis-a-vis voter support.
Both have ramifications for GE2016: the former on PAP's strategies (including tilting the playing field even further); the latter on the prospects of opposition collaboration/horse-trading.
Not sure if you realize the possibility that in a 3CF, SDP will take the non-WP votes. Whereas in a 4CF, the non-WP vote will be split between SDP and SDA/RP increasing the chances of them all losing their deposits.
Realize that. But if it shows the relative strength of SDP/RP/SDA vs WP, it would have served its function. If all three lost their deposits, it simply means that they'd have less leverage to co-opt WP into any alliance, and would have to form their own separate alliance (with NSP and SPP), or buck up an go it alone for GE2016.
That's why I find it puzzling that SDP has not approached the rest but only WP. That made me wonder if he was trying to have the best opposition candidate forward because it sounded more like having parties stronger than SDP step aside for SDP.
If he is sincere, he should start doing that after this BE. A SDP-NSP-DPP link up will be nice. Forget RP and SDA because they are what they are.
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