3 Key Political Outcomes from this By elections.

[metalmickey]

Outcome 1. The PAP entire operating model both as a party and a government requires a paradigm shift. Using state sources and tax payer funded government and semi- government organisations for party purposes is no longer tolerated. One cannot claim moral high ground on corruption and clean government whilst at the same time do the exact opposite when it comes to retain their seat.

Outcome 2. The door is now wide open for a third political party as WP alone cannot seize all the opportunities that the new dawn is offering. The PAP and WP and their respective brands of politics would not be able to cover the ideological needs of a nation. No other party other than this two have demonstrated the ability to reach out and engage the voters. SDP has been thoroughly discredited. There is no way this party can come back nor will it be able to retain its better qualified members. NSP has always had a question mark and is generally a part-time party that comes together after 5 years. Watch this space.

Outcome 3. 50 years of the yoke of fear and intimidation has been lifted. In a matter of months a number of law suits have been initiated by the PM, 2 cabinet ministers and one ex-PAP MP. One prominent blogger, civic activist and hugely respected Singaporean was threatened 3 times by 3 different cabinet ministers including the PM. The audacity of a first term and recently minted cabinet with less than 6 months on the job threatening lawsuits for legitimate questions for which the whole country is asking answers for was quite breathtaking. The climate of fear is no longer a solution for a party that is bankrupt of ideas. Either work with the people on equal terms or leave. In simple terms, please fuck off.

OK but:

The female sales trainer has been walking the ground. Desmond Lim has also been walking the ground. The other two have not. That should help to account for the lousy performance of KJ and Koh Poh Koon. The other thing is that social class has emerged as a very important part of the equation. KJ and Koh Poh Koon were punished at the polls for being members of the upper class. Worker's party is properly thought of as Working Class Party. It's not that KJ and KPK are complete idiots, but rather the things they excel in are not useful for anybody seeking to win elections.

A Michael Palmer with his trousers on is an above average PAP MP, and Koh Poh Koon couldn't measure up. Koh Poh Koon is a political novice, as we can see from his mistakes. The first impression he had on me was a good one, because he struck me as being humble and down to earth. It's possible that he really is, but he's only humble when compared to other members of his upper class, and that's not good enough. His dressing up and playing up of humble beginnings backfired because he couldn't get all the important details right. He's not a suave guy like Michael Palmer, not an experienced one who has already served one term.

Outcome 2: I definitely agree that there is room for a third party, but I wouldn't write off NSP and SDP. SDP has not been thoroughly discredited. They made a serious mistake that almost but didn't become a disaster. WP has also made mistakes in the past that didn't destroy it. Another party coming up to overtake those two would have a long way to go just to match what those two have already achieved. It doesn't take much for those two to get back on the right path - merely for the more capable ones inside that party to muscle aside the incompetents. But then again, it might not happen. There will be land vacated by RP and SDA in 2016 and who will fill in that void?

Outcome 3: all the advantages that the PAP have had, and all the dirty tricks from their playbook are being neutralised one by one.

1. Fear and intimidation
2. A compliant press to report mainly their side of the story and to control the narrative
3. GRC system as a barrier to entry
4. Town council as a barrier to entry
5. Gerrymandering (difficult in Singapore because the political landscape is fairly uniform).
6. A proven track record of good economic management
7. Appeal to the common man (these days working class party does this better)
8. Image of being clean and not corrupt. (Corruption cases are seen in some quarters as wayang)
9. Discrediting of alternate voices (lawsuits no longer working).
10. Ability to attract the best talent.

In addition, the PAP has to learn

1. How to appeal to the working class, how to be the working class. Hard because all their candidates don't come from the working class, but the "meritocratic" elite.
2. How to communicate that they have the welfare of the people at heart.
3. Point 2 is not possible without actually having the welfare of the people at heart, and forming policies that address the problems of income inequality and high cost of living. More of the last 20 years - pretending that what they're doing really has the welfare of the people at heart when it doesn't, pulling the wool over the eyes of the people while they continue rigging to the system to their advantage - is just going to carry on destroying everything that the first generation of PAP built. This fundamental rethink of what the PAP really stands for is most difficult of all and not one that I have much hope that they will pull off.

 

[metalmickey]

Even if Chee is replaced, the name is damaged. Look at the CEC, Jufrie, Cheng, etc.

VW and few others are better off with another party.

Yes, the rehabilitation of SDP has been really interrupted by this newest episode. VW going off with another party, or VW staying on with a SDP without Chee, Jufrie, Cheng - doesn't make a really big difference either way. And interestingly enough it's most probably true that VW was complicit in the crazy shennanigans. Remember that the SDP candidate for Punggol East would have been either himself or Paul Tambyah. It's so hard to figure out SDP (and also NSP) because they are both parties with great strengths and weaknesses.

Well the second half of a football match has begun and there's not point on speculating what's going to happen. Might as well watch the match.

 

[wwabbit]

A 3rd party coming up faces at least a couple of challenges.

1. Town Council. WP (and SPP to an extent) has broken through the TC barrier to entry, but the other parties have not. It would still be significantly harder for them to win the voters that are concerned about the TC compared to WP.
2. Having a popular, respected, and politically savvy leader like Mr Low Thia Khiang. Much of WP's success can be credited to his leadership. Where can a third party find someone like him that can make an impact? Chiam See Thong is the closest thing we have but he is fading and his party leadership skills is questionable. Kenneth Jeyaretnam, Chee Soon Juan, Hazel Poa, Sebastian Teo, Goh Meng Seng, Desmond Lim, Steve Chia, Benjamin Pwee.... some of them have tried and failed, while the others are trying now but don't seem to be making any progress.
3. Candidates and volunteers. Majority of people looking to be a member or a volunteer with an opposition party now would probably be looking at WP first, leaving mainly only the people rejected by the WP or those that find that their vision don't match that of the party.

 

[Sinkie]

A 3rd party coming up faces at least a couple of challenges.

1. Town Council. WP (and SPP to an extent) has broken through the TC barrier to entry, but the other parties have not. It would still be significantly harder for them to win the voters that are concerned about the TC compared to WP.

Like that very easy. Just canvass for someone holding managerial and operational position in any Town Council and field him or her as candidate. Not that difficult to find.

 

[scroobal]

I am actually surprised what Ravi P wrote. As the former editor of TOC and being involved with people at the coalface of politics he should know how the PAP works.

In the the early 80s, the decision was made to set aside a major quota for candidates who are non-members who are professionals / scholars etc. The first batch were PHD holders such as Dr Tan Eng Lian, Dr Augustine Tan etc. Nearly all the cabinets ministers have membership less than a year old. This is nothing new. I doubt Ravi spoke to a PAP member, more likely a YPAP blurfuck.

Dr Koh was identified and interviewed before GE 2011. He went thru the tea party then and has been on the slate. He left Govt Service only recently. Being a PAP member is a formality.

The entire PA will be working very hard to get Koh Poh Koon despite Laura having been thrown under the bus. PA's entire existence is to keep the PAP in power. Its like a whore telling the world that she is prefers monogamy. The only time in PAP history where an internal revolt took place was when Ong Ah Heng was sidestepped as Devan Nair's successor for Anson and instead the spot was given to Lim Kim San's nephew Pang Kim Hin. The branch had to be disbanded and Ong was sent into exile and later after rehabilitation given his MPship. Now his son is one.

See what Ravi Philemon revealed:

https://www.facebook.com/raviphilemon/posts/10151620333243277

 

[scroobal]

In GE2011, the SDP built alot of goodwill because they provided a platform and ready membership to good quality candidates who were not received by other parties or left due to differences. CSJ sat by the sidelines. They thus became the most improved party . They destroyed the goodwiil.

SDP needs VW rather than the other way around. Without VW, the party is expected to go the way of SJP. PT, Ang etc will go.

Is CSJ a finished article? Sorry, I do not have the answer. Most likely he will contest in the next GE. If he lose, maybe he should quit for good. Jufrie and Cheng are old. They will have to quit the scene sooner or later.

VW and SDP are a match made in heaven. Only in SDP presented him with the opportunity to showcase his talent. Switching to another party is clearly not a solution. SDP may be a rotten boat but it has not sink. The boat is a big one. Whether VW can sail the boat to the other side of the riverbank depends on his skill and determination.

 

[metalmickey]

Like that very easy. Just canvass for someone holding managerial and operational position in any Town Council and field him or her as candidate. Not that difficult to find.

Haha. You mean Desmond Lim?

 

[wwabbit]

Like that very easy. Just canvass for someone holding managerial and operational position in any Town Council and field him or her as candidate. Not that difficult to find.

Except such a person would likely be already a supporter of the party that manages that Town Council...

 

[metalmickey]

A 3rd party coming up faces at least a couple of challenges.

i think that Chiam See Tong best exemplifies the difference between a parliamentarian and a party leader. Since, glaringly he is pretty good at the former and pretty hopeless at the latter. A party having a member of parliament is a springboard to establishing itself. Both establishing a party and getting a seat in parliament are difficult but none are obviously more difficult than the other. A party who can get somebody elected into parliament like CST, but who unlike CST is able to keep his party together, stands to have a good chance of growing and moving forwards.

Low Thia Khiang may not have done a lot of opposition party unity, but he has shown other people how it's done and that alone is a great contribution.

 

[codex]

one word alone explains why pap cannot win:humility. MIW dont have it. koh talked as if he is already an mp when he threatened that pap will not help. TCH certainly is of no help KJ with his ludicrous police reports resulting in the arrest of a keyboard warrior reminded voters of the numerous defamation suits the pap took up. You really have to wonder why people of a higher social standing than the ass doctor are more humble. And they are not even trying to get anything from you

 

[scroobal]

Good point. The charade that the 3rd generation PAP created could not last. They have been caught out.

OK but:
More of the last 20 years - pretending that what they're doing really has the welfare of the people at heart when it doesn't, pulling the wool over the eyes of the people while they continue rigging to the system to their advantage - is just going to carry on destroying everything that the first generation of PAP built. This fundamental rethink of what the PAP really stands for is most difficult of all and not one that I have much hope that they will pull off.

 

[jixiaolan]

So far if you do notice historically, WP is only willing to negotiate with SDP. VW was there to collect some loose chips and was happy to leave it at that. 2 reasons why KJ went ahead - to sabotage (becos RP was not "allocated" with a smc) and a platform to raise RP profile which unfortunately was masked by his drama.

Yes, the rehabilitation of SDP has been really interrupted by this newest episode. VW going off with another party, or VW staying on with a SDP without Chee, Jufrie, Cheng - doesn't make a really big difference either way. And interestingly enough it's most probably true that VW was complicit in the crazy shennanigans. Remember that the SDP candidate for Punggol East would have been either himself or Paul Tambyah. It's so hard to figure out SDP (and also NSP) because they are both parties with great strengths and weaknesses.

Well the second half of a football match has begun and there's not point on speculating what's going to happen. Might as well watch the match.

 

[jixiaolan]

Ang joined politics mainly because of TJS involvement and their deep friendship. The fact that Ang is still with SDP itself is a mystery unless the 2 have fallen off.

SDP needs VW rather than the other way around. Without VW, the party is expected to go the way of SJP. PT, Ang etc will go.

 

[metalmickey]

So far if you do notice historically, WP is only willing to negotiate with SDP. VW was there to collect some loose chips and was happy to leave it at that. 2 reasons why KJ went ahead - to sabotage (becos RP was not "allocated" with a smc) and a platform to raise RP profile which unfortunately was masked by his drama.

The bargaining powers of RP and SDA will be gone as a result of this BE. So this is not the only gain for the opposition, I suppose. Is that what all this Kenneth Jeyaretnam drama was all about? Seems like the pigheadedness and detachment from reality that served his old man so well simply manifested itself as a form of stupidity in the son.

Ang joined politics mainly because of TJS involvement and their deep friendship. The fact that Ang is still with SDP itself is a mystery unless the 2 have fallen off.

Tan Jee Say and Ang Yong Guan are not married to each other, unless that place is really a gay bar or something. Just because your friend leaves it doesn't mean you have to leave. A star politician does not leave a party, even a hotel like SDP, unless he's trying to be a drama queen. Anyway he's not a queen. That's Vincent Wijeysingha.

 

[jixiaolan]

Interestingly, TJS resigned from SDP to contest in PE and has since not join any political party. Ang is mostly parking there biding his time for the next big "move". A return by TJS to SDP cannot be totally rule out but that likelihood is pretty remote. Anyway, I expect VW and PT to stay put in SDP.

Tan Jee Say and Ang Yong Guan are not married to each other, unless that place is really a gay bar or something. Just because your friend leaves it doesn't mean you have to leave. A star politician does not leave a party, even a hotel like SDP, unless he's trying to be a drama queen. Anyway he's not a queen. That's Vincent Wijeysingha.

 

[jixiaolan]

Actually, you are right. Beside SDP, there is enough room for another party except that the 4th party does not have a name yet.

I am sure, if you tried enough, you would find a more capable individual.

 

[alternativemediarocks]

well said.
Outcome 2: SDP does have some gems of generals in its CEC , Dr Ang for example. It would be good if they can be headhunted to a stronger opposition party or form their own. CSJ should consider stepping down as leader of the party while there is still time. He is too "unstable",currently more detrimental to the common good of the party and the democratic purpose than a boon.
I am sure he can serve in other areas.

Before we go into the outcomes, the question has to be asked - how did a 34 female sales trainer beat a surgeon with an extensive CV, scrutinised and passed by the rigorous and renown tea party process, a double first Cambridge Economist and Hedge Fund manager and an Australian trained Principal Engineer. We will delve into at a later date.

Outcome 1. The PAP entire operating model both as a party and a government requires a paradigm shift. Using state sources and tax payer funded government and semi- government organisations for party purposes is no longer tolerated. One cannot claim moral high ground on corruption and clean government whilst at the same time do the exact opposite when it comes to retain their seat.

Outcome 2. The door is now wide open for a third political party as WP alone cannot seize all the opportunities that the new dawn is offering. The PAP and WP and their respective brands of politics would not be able to cover the ideological needs of a nation. No other party other than this two have demonstrated the ability to reach out and engage the voters. SDP has been thoroughly discredited. There is no way this party can come back nor will it be able to retain its better qualified members. NSP has always had a question mark and is generally a part-time party that comes together after 5 years. Watch this space.

Outcome 3. 50 years of the yoke of fear and intimidation has been lifted. In a matter of months a number of law suits have been initiated by the PM, 2 cabinet ministers and one ex-PAP MP. One prominent blogger, civic activist and hugely respected Singaporean was threatened 3 times by 3 different cabinet ministers including the PM. The audacity of a first term and recently minted cabinet with less than 6 months on the job threatening lawsuits for legitimate questions for which the whole country is asking answers for was quite breathtaking. The climate of fear is no longer a solution for a party that is bankrupt of ideas. Either work with the people on equal terms or leave. In simple terms, please fuck off.

 

[wwabbit]

well said.
Outcome 2: SDP does have some gems of generals in its CEC , Dr Ang for example. It would be good if they can be headhunted to a stronger opposition party or form their own. CSJ should consider stepping down as leader of the party while there is still time. He is too "unstable",currently more detrimental to the common good of the party and the democratic purpose than a boon.
I am sure he can serve in other areas.

Dr Ang Yong Guan seem to have given hints that he may have left SDP.
To me it doesn't look like CSJ is willing to let go of SDP. He is after all someone that likes to talk a lot, and SDP is the platform that allows him to do that.

 

[alternativemediarocks]

Dr Ang Yong Guan seem to have given hints that he may have left SDP.
To me it doesn't look like CSJ is willing to let go of SDP. He is after all someone that likes to talk a lot, and SDP is the platform that allows him to do that.

Good for Ang, with TJS and the group of Raffles old boys, they can setup a pretty lethal party. I am sure lots of new politically astute new blood would love to join them as well.

 

[cleareyes]

VW and SDP are a match made in heaven. Only in SDP presented him with the opportunity to showcase his talent. Switching to another party is clearly not a solution. SDP may be a rotten boat but it has not sink. The boat is a big one. Whether VW can sail the boat to the other side of the riverbank depends on his skill and determination.

Very very agreeable with this