Tan Jee Say & NSP

[scroobal]

Year 2012 will politically be interesting as local political pundits watch 2 entities emerge from 2011 GE and for TJS from PE as well.

Most of us do realise that both PAP and WP which had seen results of significance - one up and one down, the expectation is that both sides will not move from the chosen path anytime soon. PAP does not make changes but it will not show its hand until early 2016. WP after 2 decades is not going to break from the mould. The formula is quite straight forward - as long as PAP remains detached and aloof, voters will head to any party that is organised, disciplined and has credible candidates.

That leaves NSP and Tan Jee Say and we are not talking about minor events. It was obvious that NSP is not the NSP pre 2011. The question is will it revert back at the next GE. People appear to be divided, some think that NSP will the same party of small businessmen, chinese educated with each individual having his own agenda. I tend to incline with this view as we see an exodus soon rather than later. GMS left and for someone to leave an important post and to leave a political party for a second time is no easy matter. So who will leave - well those who are new to the party in 2011 and interestingly they were also those that achieved the most in terms of performance. The likes of Nicole, Jeanette and I won't be surprised the scholarly couple but these two will the last to leave.

Now for Tan Say. The million dollar question on minds of pundits where this man is concerned is - did people gravitate towards him because they could not find anyone else prepared to confront at level that no other candidates does or does he have the natural ability to his cause. There is a clear difference between the two. Either way, the expectation is that he has tasted adulation of some sort and his penchant for name dropping and associating with high profile westerners is an addiction he is not going over real soon. Despite the title, I certainly do not see Sebastian allowing him in and I don't think he wants to be associated with NSP. My sense is that he will lead the NSP exodus including some of the grassroots activist many of who were with the old SDP of Chiam's time.

 

[kingrant]

Is it possible/probable that TJS will marry up somehow with Chiam to emerge in an GRC?
If the team can garner Nicole, Jeanette, and the scholarly couple, they can be a credible team, wont they?

 

[GOD IS MY DOG]

hope Tan Jeesus tag team Nicole Seah to win Marine Parade.................

 

[TracyTan866]

Year 2012 will politically be interesting as local political pundits watch 2 entities emerge from 2011 GE and for TJS from PE as well.

Most of us do realise that both PAP and WP which had seen results of significance - one up and one down, the expectation is that both sides will not move from the chosen path anytime soon. PAP does not make changes but it will not show its hand until early 2016. WP after 2 decades is not going to break from the mould. The formula is quite straight forward - as long as PAP remains detached and aloof, voters will head to any party that is organised, disciplined and has credible candidates.

That leaves NSP and Tan Jee Say and we are not talking about minor events. It was obvious that NSP is not the NSP pre 2011. The question is will it revert back at the next GE. People appear to be divided, some think that NSP will the same party of small businessmen, chinese educated with each individual having his own agenda. I tend to incline with this view as we see an exodus soon rather than later. GMS left and for someone to leave an important post and to leave a political party for a second time is no easy matter. So who will leave - well those who are new to the party in 2011 and interestingly they were also those that achieved the most in terms of performance. The likes of Nicole, Jeanette and I won't be surprised the scholarly couple but these two will the last to leave.

Now for Tan Say. The million dollar question on minds of pundits where this man is concerned is - did people gravitate towards him because they could not find anyone else prepared to confront at level that no other candidates does or does he have the natural ability to his cause. There is a clear difference between the two. Either way, the expectation is that he has tasted adulation of some sort and his penchant for name dropping and associating with high profile westerners is an addiction he is not going over real soon. Despite the title, I certainly do not see Sebastian allowing him in and I don't think he wants to be associated with NSP. My sense is that he will lead the NSP exodus including some of the grassroots activist many of who were with the old SDP of Chiam's time.

Yes, interestin year ahead. But not just for 2012...I suspect we will have many more interesting years from now onwards..especially with better Opposition candidates and with incompetent pap leaders

 

[zhihau]

The formula is quite straight forward - as long as PAP remains detached and aloof, voters will head to any party that is organised, disciplined and has credible candidates

when the old tree falls where do the monkeys go?

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

That leaves NSP and Tan Jee Say and we are not talking about minor events. It was obvious that NSP is not the NSP pre 2011. The question is will it revert back at the next GE. People appear to be divided, some think that NSP will the same party of small businessmen, chinese educated with each individual having his own agenda. I tend to incline with this view as we see an exodus soon rather than later. GMS left and for someone to leave an important post and to leave a political party for a second time is no easy matter. So who will leave - well those who are new to the party in 2011 and interestingly they were also those that achieved the most in terms of performance. The likes of Nicole, Jeanette and I won't be surprised the scholarly couple but these two will the last to leave.
.

GMS left because he knew that he cannot steer NSP by himself, as much as he tried. He is not stupid, he will not waste his energy of something that cannot be fixed. Actually, he knew he cannot do much even before GE 2011, but no choice NSP was the only platform he could ride on. The better candidates I believe will also followed GMS' lead. Problem is go out of NSP, to where?


The scholar couple for all their hype in their RP days appear to be not much of leaders. Was pretty dismayed also by the male scholar's public speaking. Sounded like horse bookie than election candidate. You are right, they will be last to leave. They are not natural leaders, so will follow other people rather than make up their own minds.

Now for Tan Say. The million dollar question on minds of pundits where this man is concerned is - did people gravitate towards him because they could not find anyone else prepared to confront at level that no other candidates does or does he have the natural ability to his cause. There is a clear difference between the two. Either way, the expectation is that he has tasted adulation of some sort and his penchant for name dropping and associating with high profile westerners is an addiction he is not going over real soon. Despite the title, I certainly do not see Sebastian allowing him in and I don't think he wants to be associated with NSP. My sense is that he will lead the NSP exodus including some of the grassroots activist many of who were with the old SDP of Chiam's time

I still believe TJS has pull factor (despite what Perspective says) because of his establishment background, knowledge of finance, and his apparent stature. I say apparent stature because I also believe sooner or later people will figure out the real man behind the image. He will disrupt both NSP and SDP. SDP even more because he is quite a magnet amongst the impressionable young signups, the very same group SDP is banking on to do party renewal. SDP is in a bit of a quandry now, becasue you on one hand of Vincent Cheng and Teo soh lung and Jufrie Mahmood with the human rights angle, the old SDP way of looking at the world, and on the other hand a crowd that joins TJS in decrying the old flawed tactics -- a POV which the older backbenchers may not agree with as they insist that diff tactics are to be used in diff circumstances.

This man will not give up, as you've already said. The 39.9% in Aljunied and 25% in PE is not something a man like him can easily just let go. How it will play out will be interesting to watch.

 

[scroobal]

Interesting point that I did not consider. It worth looking at it deeper. Ben Pwee alone cannot give oxygen to the party. Most people out of respect to Chiam is not going to suggest a merger and Chiam has been suspicious of interlopers for obvious reasons. Chee, the WP renegades, the NTU Grad in 2006 and then Desmond. I believe that they will wait for him to depart before a merger which will certainly take place.

TJS style is not something that Chiam would appreciate. The guy does not like grandstanding which was the reason why he and Chee had the fallout over the hunger strike.

Jeannette and Nicole I am pretty sure will follow TJS. Scholars not too sure. There has been a big fish that was courting NSP and NSP the big fish after the GE but I heard it is not going anywhere. GMS alluded to this. The big fish is now looking at some other like minded characters but they prefer people with established grassroots skills for their organisation and reach.

Is it possible/probable that TJS will marry up somehow with Chiam to emerge in an GRC?
If the team can garner Nicole, Jeanette, and the scholarly couple, they can be a credible team, wont they?

 

[TracyTan866]

GMS left because he knew that he cannot steer NSP by himself, as much as he tried. He is not stupid, he will not waste his energy of something that cannot be fixed. Actually, he knew he cannot do much even before GE 2011, but no choice NSP was the only platform he could ride on. The better candidates I believe will also followed GMS' lead. Problem is go out of NSP, to where?


The scholar couple for all their hype in their RP days appear to be not much of leaders. Was pretty dismayed also by the male scholar's public speaking. Sounded like horse bookie than election candidate. You are right, they will be last to leave. They are not natural leaders, so will follow other people rather than make up their own minds.




I still believe TJS has pull factor (despite what Perspective says) because of his establishment background, knowledge of finance, and his apparent stature. I say apparent stature because I also believe sooner or later people will figure out the real man behind the image. He will disrupt both NSP and SDP. SDP even more because he is quite a magnet amongst the impressionable young signups, the very same group SDP is banking on to do party renewal. SDP is in a bit of a quandry now, becasue you on one hand of Vincent Cheng and Teo soh lung and Jufrie Mahmood with the human rights angle, the old SDP way of looking at the world, and on the other hand a crowd that joins TJS in decrying the old flawed tactics -- a POV which the older backbenchers may not agree with as they insist that diff tactics are to be used in diff circumstances.

This man will not give up, as you've already said. The 39.9% in Aljunied and 25% in PE is not something a man like him can easily just let go. How it will play out will be interesting to watch.

TCB would be an interesting factor

 

[scroobal]

This is probably the most salient point about GE2011/PE2011 and the years to come. 2 attributes - better opposition candidates and incompetent PAP leaders. The year also saw opposition old guards who played at the fringe for decades tossed out by voters. The most telling is Steve Chia which surprised me as he was supposed to be new gen. Even WP had choices for the first time.

PAP struggled with not only incompetent leaders like Mah who had ample opportunity to deliver but failed miserably. But look at the new slate. A lady with poor conduct, a candidate with molest allegations hanging over his head and the rest are unheard, unknown and unbelievably poor. Tin Pei Ling however stood front and centre for all the wrong reason. - lack of substance- nepotism - MP's wife had to get her a job- connection to PM via cradle snatcher though it can be argued that he was the more gullible one.

..especially with better Opposition candidates and with incompetent pap leaders

 

[scroobal]

Gone are the days of the sinecures. These monkeys are now on their own. I won't be surprised that some of these monkeys start their own opposition parties or claim that they were fighting a rear guard campaign. Anyway, nearly all the opposition new gen came from YPAP, PA grassroots etc.

when the old tree falls where do the monkeys go?

 

[aurvandil]

In 2011, the myth that the PAP is the "bestest" government in the universe was forever shattered.

The numerous policy failures of the PAP (housing, transport, healthcare) were laid bare for all too see. It was so evident that PM Lee had to apologise and beg for a 2nd chance. In GE 2011, Singaporeans somewhat reluctantly gave it to him. Being a selfish and materialistic people, it is unlikely that Singaporeans will give him and the PAP a 3rd or 4th chance if promises continue to be unkept.

So far, there has been a lot of political showmanship with regard to the policy failures. All these appear to be designed to show the PAP was listening intently to the people and working furiously to resolve the problems. As the SMRT breakdowns have shown, there is however very little actual progress being made.

Instead of keeping track of TJS, NSP and other political personalities, we should be keeping an eye on the policy failures and the lack of progress in resolving them. In this sense, 2012 looks decidedly boring. I expect more of the same and for the policy failures to grow even more serious as a result.

 

[Fook Seng]

TCB would be an interesting factor

Don't think TCB will take part in party politics unless it is in a PAP spin off. Not in his character to go head on with his ex-party. Many of his PE supporters are probably still pro-PAP, I would say two-thirds of his voters at this time at least. Against another party yes they will support him. Against PAP, I believe same result as WP. I don't think he will take that route. Most likely to continue to eye the next PE.

 

[freedalas]

This is somewhat off-topic but I thought I just share it with fellow forummers here. I was at Times Bookshop in CenterPoint looking for TJS's just released book "A Nation Awakes". So I went straight to the table where they lay out the latest releases. Three-quarter of the table was placed with LKY's two books, one on the Mandarin one and the other The Hard Truth. The rest of the table was placed with Steve Jobs autobiography and two books of Deng Hsiao Peng. Not one single copy of TJS book was on the table. So I look round, and found it high up in the shelves, perhaps 5 copies on display at most. Mind you, the rest of the shelves also filled with LKY's books. So you see, even a bookshop as reputable as Times dare not display TJS books and hide it in one corner while LKY's are displayed very very prominently with large quantities. The kind of fear LKY has instilled is irreversible, sadly

 

[zhihau]

Many of his PE supporters are probably still pro-PAP, I would say two-thirds of his voters at this time at least

much as i figured, hardcore PAP voters gave President Tan their votes whilst TJS got his fair share of votes from the hardcore opposition. i noted that some moderate opposition supporters gave President Tan their votes due to reasons known to them, moderate PAP voters also gave their votes to TCB.
end game was TCB capturing the votes from the moderates from both sides & as well as the votes from the fence sitters. President Tan & TJS would have captured a small portion of the votes from the fence sitters as well. breaking down that 34.9% that TCB garnered, i guess only about 250k are moderate PAP supporters, some 250k are moderate opposition supporters & the rest are fence sitters.
just some guesstimate from a village idiot if you don't mind :p:p:p

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

much as i figured, hardcore PAP voters gave President Tan their votes whilst TJS got his fair share of votes from the hardcore opposition. i noted that some moderate opposition supporters gave President Tan their votes due to reasons known to them, moderate PAP voters also gave their votes to TCB.
end game was TCB capturing the votes from the moderates from both sides & as well as the votes from the fence sitters. President Tan & TJS would have captured a small portion of the votes from the fence sitters as well. breaking down that 34.9% that TCB garnered, i guess only about 250k are moderate PAP supporters, some 250k are moderate opposition supporters & the rest are fence sitters.
just some guesstimate from a village idiot if you don't mind :p:p:p

The term "village idiot" has been copyrighted :-) It refers to a particular politician.

TCB was the only who could capture votes from BOTH sides of the political spectrum. He therefore had the best chance to win, and no one with a good mind should have missed that.

TKL and TJS went into the fray, despite knowing they could potentially upset the apple cart. What does that say about these two esteemed gentlemen?

 

[scroobal]

Times Bookstore is owned by Times Publishing which is owned by F&N whose chairman is LHY. Temasek previously had a direct stake. It was previously owned by SPH. The control over media is absolute. F&N is controlled by Lee clan of OCBC and chairman's mum has significant stake. The youngest son has taken over as the property guru from his late mum. People must be thinking that F&N makes most of its profits from Orange soda drinks and beer. Well the reason Mah Bow Tan could not move is that 70% of its profits comes from Properties the bulk of which comes from Singapore. The Perm Sec who misled ISD and was sacked was brought back after rehabilitation in SIberia (HK) and given a post in Times Books. That was because he was the PM's cohort as scholar and OCT mate. Welcome to Singapore.

This is somewhat off-topic but I thought I just share it with fellow forummers here. I was at Times Bookshop in CenterPoint looking for TJS's just released book "A Nation Awakes". So I went straight to the table where they lay out the latest releases. Three-quarter of the table was placed with LKY's two books, one on the Mandarin one and the other The Hard Truth. The rest of the table was placed with Steve Jobs autobiography and two books of Deng Hsiao Peng. Not one single copy of TJS book was on the table. So I look round, and found it high up in the shelves, perhaps 5 copies on display at most. Mind you, the rest of the shelves also filled with LKY's books. So you see, even a bookshop as reputable as Times dare not display TJS books and hide it in one corner while LKY's are displayed very very prominently with large quantities. The kind of fear LKY has instilled is irreversible, sadly

 

[zhihau]

The term "village idiot" has been copyrighted :-) It refers to a particular politician

hmm... then i shall be the "nobody"
before TJS joined in, i must admit i was torn between TCB & TKL. wasn't sure if TKL would garner enough votes to keep the deposits. after TJS came into the picture, looking at the various predictions, my vote was clear. as you've said, TCB would have the higher chance of winning.

 

[scroobal]

Tend to agree with you on all points. Just to add that he will likely advise and provide support to opposition identities but not the parties per se.

Don't think TCB will take part in party politics unless it is in a PAP spin off. Not in his character to go head on with his ex-party. Many of his PE supporters are probably still pro-PAP, I would say two-thirds of his voters at this time at least. Against another party yes they will support him. Against PAP, I believe same result as WP. I don't think he will take that route. Most likely to continue to eye the next PE.

 

[scroobal]

I guess the focus will be on two fronts.

Instead of keeping track of TJS, NSP and other political personalities, we should be keeping an eye on the policy failures and the lack of progress in resolving them. In this sense, 2012 looks decidedly boring. I expect more of the same and for the policy failures to grow even more serious as a result.

 

[freedalas]

Times Bookstore is owned by Times Publishing which is owned by F&N whose chairman is LHY. Temasek previously had a direct stake. It was previously owned by SPH. The control over media is absolute. F&N is controlled by Lee clan of OCBC and chairman's mum has significant stake. The youngest son has taken over as the property guru from his late mum. People must be thinking that F&N makes most of its profits from Orange soda drinks and beer. Well the reason Mah Bow Tan could not move is that 70% of its profits comes from Properties the bulk of which comes from Singapore. The Perm Sec who misled ISD and was sacked was brought back after rehabilitation in SIberia (HK) and given a post in Times Books. That was because he was the PM's cohort as scholar and OCT mate. Welcome to Singapore.

Many thanks for the insights, Scroobal. Forummers here can learn so much here, especially of the Lee regime and their antics