SBF PE Polls Analysis - Revelation!!

[scroobal]

Thanks for plugging in your prediction and wishlist. Those who have yet to do so, this is the link - http://singsupplies.com/showthread....Wishlist-Lay-it-down-here&p=801894#post801894

Simple Average (where folks submitted both the Prediction and wishlist, I have taken the former)

Tony Tancho Tan - 33.3%
Adrian Tan Cheng Bock -27.4%
Kenson Tan Jee Say - 23.5%
Casino Tan Kin Lian - 13.6%

Kopitiam Ah Pek Analysis

• Casino Tan KL is very likely to lose his deposit. If 2 of those who submitted their prediction did not give Casino TKL high 30s, his average would dive below the 12%. In fact, I think he will lose the deposit as SBF has always carried opposition bias.
• Kenson Tan JS seem to gather votes from the opposition side of the fence as his rhetoric and campaign is clearly based on GE rather than on PE. He obviously is aware that he will not make it and maximising the opportunity to raise his profile and build on his credentials as serious opposition candidate for the next GE
• Adrian Tan must just steal the luster from Tony Patrick Tan as he seems very clear what the role of PE is which is in line with the constitution but is still taking pot shots at the old man such as the need for independence via his Istana comment. He is also playing the community card which no other candidate is doing.
• Tony Patrick Tan polled well and I suspect that much of it is due to many thinking that he is a given in view of his govt backing and the huge machinary behind him. What is interesting is that next President of Singapore might have actually had only support from 30plus % of the country - a bloody disgrace and a lesson to the PAP and Govt.

Prognosis

• Do expect the polls to behave very differently from GE as the first presidential elections showed.
• Intelligence indicate that Adrian Tan Cheng Bock has done massive groundwork behind the scenes. Interestingly the PAP grassroots are behind him and not Tony Tancho Tan - an internal rebellion for want of better term.
• Kenson Tan Jee Say had not prepared for the PE as he clearly did not expect to qualify and his thought process is very shaky as per his comments/answers. I suspect that his votes will slide. His command and pronounciation of English for an English Educated chap is atrocious let alone having gone to Oxford. He will however have emotional but not vote support for his missiles that he is throwing at the Govt.
• I expect Tony Tancho Tan to start losing ground after he displayed his classic PAP sue and screw the opposition tactics over the ISA. He comments appear to be that of an PAP apologist as expected. Talk about independence.

 

[Bigfuck]

Dear Scroobal, it is always good to have a hypothesis and prediction statistics. But, this time, the figures will be very wild west style. It is an election not about who is a better candidate, but a vote of defiance and total mistrust against the PAP that is on the table. Just watch. It will be very unsettling for the powers that be as the result show how far the people of Singapore are incensed with the establishment for the usual suspect reasons.

 

[scroobal]

I looked at the chaps plugging in the figures and I suspect it will close to this. There is a possibility that TCB might switch places with TJS running a strong third.

Nevetherless, it will be a good run.

Dear Scroobal, it is always good to have a hypothesis and prediction statistics. But, this time, the figures will be very wild west style. It is an election not about who is a better candidate, but a vote of defiance and total mistrust against the PAP that is on the table. Just watch. It will be very unsettling for the powers that be as the result show how far the people of Singapore are incensed with the establishment for the usual suspect reasons.

 

[bhoven]

Dear Scroobal, it is always good to have a hypothesis and prediction statistics. But, this time, the figures will be very wild west style. It is an election not about who is a better candidate, but a vote of defiance and total mistrust against the PAP that is on the table. Just watch. It will be very unsettling for the powers that be as the result show how far the people of Singapore are incensed with the establishment for the usual suspect reasons.

I think there will be a last minute switch for supporters of TCB/TJS/TKL to whoever amongst the 3 will most likely knock TT from the pole position...imho
TCB will be the one to benefit as TT may also see some defection as he stumbles and faulters by the day not used to this kind of campaigning and hustings...who could have imagine him deigning to participate in a TOC forum...lol

 

[scroobal]

Agree except for TKL. I was surprised how many single and teen digits he received. Having started first with quite a heavy penetration of the internet, I thought he would have done better.

It will be interesting to see what the outcome would be for TKL. I am particularly interested as his use of the Net on a personal level was higher - blogging, facebook, fielding comments online which others would shying away from.

I think there will be a last minute switch for supporters of TCB/TJS/TKL to whoever amongst the 3 will most likely knock TT from the pole position...imho
TCB will be the one to benefit as TT may also see some defection as he stumbles and faulters by the day not used to this kind of campaigning and hustings...who could have imagine him deigning to participate in a TOC forum...lol

 

[rusty]

Tony Tan if he wins, he will still be a loser @33.33%

66.666666% voted against him!

He will go into history for being the most hated president.

 

[scroobal]

It reflects how poorly the draftsmen putting this legislation had thought thru this. On hindsight it would have been better to do qualifying rounds is no candidate has more than 50% of the votes. Clearly a mandate does not exist and the very purpose of the Presidency in the main is to unify the people of this country. Guarding the reserve is only secondary.

Its good to see old man still alive to see his own crappy handiwork.

Tony Tan if he wins, he will still be a loser @33.33%

66.666666% voted against him!

He will go into history for being the most hated president.

 

[bhoven]

Agree except for TKL. I was surprised how many single and teen digits he received. Having started first with quite a heavy penetration of the internet, I thought he would have done better.

It will be interesting to see what the outcome would be for TKL. I am particularly interested as his use of the Net on a personal level was higher - blogging, facebook, fielding comments online which others would shying away from.

It boils down to the quality and focus of the posts....he was more into DIY financial planning/insurance type posts not searching and analytical social political comments/observations . Latter would have attracted more politically aware net citizens and who would now be more inclined to seriously consider his EP candidacy

 

[PTADER]

Dear Scroobal, it is always good to have a hypothesis and prediction statistics. But, this time, the figures will be very wild west style. It is an election not about who is a better candidate, but a vote of defiance and total mistrust against the PAP that is on the table. Just watch. It will be very unsettling for the powers that be as the result show how far the people of Singapore are incensed with the establishment for the usual suspect reasons.

It is either Tan Cheng Bock or Tan Jee Say, which is the outcome I hope to see and the outcome I believe would eventuate.

Tan Kin Lian will be the lowest scoring candidate. He should pray he gets enough votes to retain his deposit.

This will be the ultimate humiliation and very well-deserved end of Phony Tan's political career.

PAP's Phony Tan should, in fact, be grateful for losing.

Imagine the logistics of having to constantly have enough "cheerers" from NTUC or the PAP RCs to drown out the jeering and booing each and every time he makes a public appearance?

Imagine the utter humiliation at being booed and jeered in the presence of ambassadors, high commissioners, foreign dignitaries, etc at every National Day Parade? The SAF may well have to mobilise and fill the stadium with reservists dressed in civvies each year he is President just to prevent this humiliation.

Phony's loss will also save taxpayers from having to bear the daily cost of having more cleaners to clean the dried phlegm and spit on his and his wife's photos hanging on the walls.

Phony's best option now is to immediately withdraw from the contest. He will then save himself the humiliation of an "official" loss or the greater humiliation that will follow and hound him for the next 6 years should there be a freak result and he wins by fluke.

 

[scroobal]

At the start, it did appear that TT would have sizeable votes at least over 55% akin to OTC. A number of factors seem to come into play. TCB eating into the PAP's compliant lot, the Patrick Tan NS debacle for which answers did no help clearing the doubts and the manner that he has used the establishment to get support from the usual lot.

This might be a disaster for him and the PAP not to mention the old man. The Boos did catch people by surprise but it does indicate the level of resentment that exist.

Phony's best option now is to immediately withdraw from the contest. He will then save himself the humiliation of an "official" loss or the greater humiliation that will follow and hound him for the next 6 years should there be a freak result and he wins by fluke.

 

[Cestbon]

No candidate will have 50% vote and above.

 

[PTADER]

[*]Tony Patrick Tan polled well and I suspect that much of it is due to many thinking that he is a given in view of his govt backing and the huge machinary behind him. What is interesting is that next President of Singapore might have actually had only support from 30plus % of the country - a bloody disgrace and a lesson to the PAP and Govt.

There needs to be total revamp of the PE. It should be completely depoliticised. It should not revolve around the PAP and its perpetual attempts to tinker with the system just to entrench the PAP or one of their members in power via the PE route should and when the day comes when they lose in a GE.

Best is to revert to an appointed system where a respected memher of each ethnic community gets a chance to play President. All politicians, past and present, from both the PAP and opposition, should be banned from the Presidency.

Either that or have a model like the run-off system of the Indonesian Presidential Elections. If a candidate gets less than 50% of the votes, there will be run-off between the two candidates who got the highest votes. Or the Australian instant run-off preference system. This will ensure that the one who is playing President can claim to have a "majority" which is at least 50%+ 1 vote and hence, have that moral authority to say he represents the majority and hence, can open his mouth to speak on issues.

 

[scroobal]

Agree. I have no idea why the idiot tampered with the system in the first place. The fact that he had to ask OTC and CKY to face off for the first PE shows that it does not work and needs to be staged managed. And now this.

Run-off system is practiced in so many countries yet they chose to ignore it. My sense is that they thought they can control the PEC and pick and choose who they wanted. I don't think anticipated that all 4 of the candidates would come from the establishment and that they would be unhappy with the ruling junta. In the past, no establishment figure would even consider standing in opposition. How things have changed since after 2006.

There needs to be total revamp of the PE. It should be completely depoliticised. It should not revolve around the PAP and its perpetual attempts to tinker with the system just to entrench the PAP or one of their members in power via the PE route should and when the day comes when they lose in a GE.

Best is to revert to an appointed system where a respected memher of each ethnic community gets a chance to play President. All politicians, past and present, from both the PAP and opposition, should be banned from the Presidency.

Either that or have a model like the run-off system of the Indonesian Presidential Elections. If a candidate gets less than 50% of the votes, there will be run-off between the two candidates who got the highest votes. Or the Australian instant run-off preference system. This will ensure that the one who is playing President can claim to have a "majority" which is at least 50%+ 1 vote and hence, have that moral authority to say he represents the majority and hence, can open his mouth to speak on issues.

 

[Summerbee]

Your survey is asking for 'prediction' or 'wishlist'. These two are very different, I believed some people in the forum were writing down their wishlist not prediction. So your collected data can be quite off.

Why pick on TJS english? I heard TCB cannot speak chinese all these years and he managed to do his job, so why start all these? I feel it is the heart to serve and the willingness to step forward that matters. I also feel that TKL should have a better showing and not lose his deposit.

Any convincing proof that the entire PAP grassroot is behind TCB? Cos I understand at least 300 grassroot turned up to support TT on nomination day and many TT posters were put up by grassroot volunteers. Unless the entire PAP grassroot is the few people surrounding TCB.

 

[lockeliberal]

Dear Scroo

The EP was another example of a bright LKY idea , which has outlived its usefulness to its designer. It was never meant in anyway to be a check on the PAP or an alternative moral or political centre despite the political power inherent in its " ELECTED " status. It was an always meant to be a PAP check in case of a profligate opposition squandering the accumulated PAP wealth because of populist pressures and policies.

The qualifications and criteria basically meant the establishment. In its day a $100 million PUC in 1991 was a hell lot of money and would have meant at least a GLC. Someone forgot to adjust it for inflation and thus it opened it up to a wider and unexpected field within the opposition :_)).

The establishment has been splitting since 2006. Scholars and talent like CSM have put a death knell into the oft repeated claim still being championed in 2006 that ONLY PAP selected stock was the right stuff.

The divides within Singapore have grown and I am glad that the elites the establishment have now realized that the PAP do not cannot have all the answers.



Locke

Agree. I have no idea why the idiot tampered with the system in the first place. The fact that he had to ask OTC and CKY to face off for the first PE shows that it does not work and needs to be staged managed. And now this.

Run-off system is practiced in so many countries yet they chose to ignore it. My sense is that they thought they can control the PEC and pick and choose who they wanted. I don't think anticipated that all 4 of the candidates would come from the establishment and that they would be unhappy with the ruling junta. In the past, no establishment figure would even consider standing in opposition. How things have changed since after 2006.

 

[Bigfuck]

Dear Scroo


The divides within Singapore have grown and I am glad that the elites the establishment have now realized that the PAP do not cannot have all the answers.

Locke

The PAP never had the answers. They silenced the questions. Now that the questions can longer be silenced, they are finished (LKY's pet masturbation phrase) as they do not even know the questions or what questions to ask, let alone, answer them. Whatever is happening with the EP is just the beginning. Mercenary scholars will start to show off they are smarter than the estab.

 

[mei mei]

POLL
<!-- THis is the polls header section -->
What kind of President do you want for Singapore?


<!-- THis is the polls header section Ending --><!-- user choices --><DL class=ugcpl-pchart><DT>Someone who questions government policies (3552) 71% </DT><DT>
Someone who will act only as advised by the Cabinet (81) 2% </DT><DT>
Someone who will make protection of reserves the top priority (1161) 23% </DT><DT>
Someone who will be a figurehead, focusing on ceremonial duties (199) 4% </DT></DL>

 

[scroobal]

Bro, take it easy. This is only forum talk full of speculations, conjecture, guesswork and bullshit. Those with half a brain can pick out the wheat from the chaff and the rest will see things go above their head. What do you need the proof for - apply for HDB flat at discounted rate.

TJS went to Oxford, was a PPS and he struggles with the working language. OTC command of Mandarin was superb but his English was on par and he went to University of Adelaide. There are certain expectation of holding high office even though it is largely ceremonial.

Your survey is asking for 'prediction' or 'wishlist'. These two are very different, I believed some people in the forum were writing down their wishlist not prediction. So your collected data can be quite off.Why pick on TJS english? I heard TCB cannot speak chinese all these years and he managed to do his job, so why start all these? I feel it is the heart to serve and the willingness to step forward that matters. I also feel that TKL should have a better showing and not lose his deposit. Any convincing proof that the entire PAP grassroot is behind TCB? Cos I understand at least 300 grassroot turned up to support TT on nomination day and many TT posters were put up by grassroot volunteers. Unless the entire PAP grassroot is the few people surrounding TCB.

 

[scroobal]

This PE is getting better by the day for 2 reasons - the possibility of a disastrous for the PAP and secondly how badly the construct has been done. Of course I am happy to see the old man still alive to see what an idiot he is and that his compliant cabinet over the years have blindly followed him. Jayakumar must be the laughing stock. The run-off would have prevented installing a dud with no mandate.

The establishment has been splitting since 2006. Scholars and talent like CSM have put a death knell into the oft repeated claim still being championed in 2006 that ONLY PAP selected stock was the right stuff. The divides within Singapore have grown and I am glad that the elites the establishment have now realized that the PAP do not cannot have all the answers.Locke

 

[scroobal]

Nicely put. The questions are now being raised.

The PAP never had the answers. They silenced the questions. Now that the questions can longer be silenced, they are finished (LKY's pet masturbation phrase) as they do not even know the questions or what questions to ask, let alone, answer them. Whatever is happening with the EP is just the beginning. Mercenary scholars will start to show off they are smarter than the estab.