China EVs and PHEVs takeover : Markets are changed forever

[glockman]

Not just in oz but the world over. Except the US, for now.

 

[Hightech88]

** Chinese EVs & PHEVs Are Taking Over the World — What Happens to Legacy Car Brands? **

Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) have indeed surged to global dominance in recent years, with China accounting for about **73% of worldwide EV sales in 2025** (20.7 million units globally, up 20% from 2024), driven by aggressive exports, low prices, advanced tech, and state support. Chinese brands like **BYD, Geely, and SAIC** exported over **5.5 million vehicles in 2025**, capturing significant shares in emerging markets and even challenging established players in mature ones.

This shift is reshaping the automotive industry, forcing **European, US, UK, and Japanese brands** to adapt or risk decline. Below, I’ll outline the likely **short- to medium-term (2026–2030)** impacts based on current trends, tariffs, market data, and analyst projections.

### Challenges and Trends Driving the Shift

- **Chinese Advantages**
Low production costs (often 20–30% below Western rivals), rapid innovation (e.g., ultra-fast charging, software-defined vehicles), and a focus on affordable models ($20,000–$30,000 range) are key.
PHEVs are booming globally (up 34–35% in 2025), helping Chinese firms skirt some EV tariffs while offering range-extended options appealing to hesitant buyers.

- **Global Barriers**
High tariffs (US: 100–135%; EU: 17–38%; potential UK/EU adjustments) slow penetration in the West, but Chinese firms are building overseas factories (e.g., BYD in Hungary, Geely in Europe/Southeast Asia) to localize production and bypass duties.
Overseas capacity for Chinese OEMs could double to **4.3 million units/year by 2026**.

- **Western Retreat**
Slowing EV adoption in the US/Europe (US: 9–10% share; Europe: 24–31%) due to high costs, infrastructure gaps, and policy shifts (e.g., EU softening 2035 combustion ban; US IRA tax credits expiring in 2025) gives China breathing room to consolidate.
Hybrids/PHEVs are resurging as a "bridge" tech.

### What Happens to European Brands (VW, BMW, Mercedes, Stellantis, Renault)?

- **Short-Term (2026–2028)**
Continued market share erosion at home and abroad. Chinese brands captured **5–10%** of Europe's new car market in 2025 (up from 3–5% in 2024), with projections peaking at **13% by 2028** before stabilizing.
In China, European brands' share dropped from ~60% in 2020 to mid-20s% in 2025.
Sales of electrified vehicles (EVs/PHEVs) in Europe grew 30–52% in 2025, but domestic OEMs like VW and Stellantis saw flat or declining output, while Chinese PHEVs surged (**14x imports in August 2025**).

- **Long-Term Outcomes**
Brands must reinvent—focusing on affordable EVs (e.g., Renault 5, VW ID.2), software upgrades, and hybrids/PHEVs to compete.
Partnerships with Chinese firms (e.g., for batteries/tech) are likely to increase.
Without adaptation, some (e.g., Stellantis) risk factory closures or mergers; overall, EVs could hit **31–37% share by 2026–2027**, but Chinese dominance may cap European growth to mid-single digits.

### What Happens to US Brands (GM, Ford, Tesla)?

- **Short-Term (2026–2028)**
Stagnation or retreat, with EV share stuck at **9–10%** in 2025–2026 due to high tariffs (**135% on Chinese EVs**) and expiring incentives (IRA credits end Sept. 2025).
Brands like Ford/GM are pivoting to hybrids/EREVs (e.g., Ford scrapping pure EVs, GM exporting from China but facing backlash).
Tesla remains strong domestically but competes globally.

- **Long-Term Outcomes**
Existential threat if tariffs persist—Chinese firms may enter via trade deals or US factories, undercutting with $20k models.
US brands could lose global share (e.g., to 2M/year in China), leading to job losses or bailouts.
Adaptation via hybrids, local production, or partnerships (e.g., GM using Chinese capacity inward) is key; EVs may reach **10–15% by 2030**, but China could dominate exports.

### What Happens to UK Brands (Jaguar Land Rover, Mini)?

- **Short-Term (2026–2028)**
Rapid Chinese infiltration—Chinese brands captured **18–29%** of UK EV market in 2025 (one in five new cars in Dec.), up from low single digits.
UK missed ZEV quotas despite this, signaling slow overall electrification (similar to Europe at 24%).

- **Long-Term Outcomes**
UK brands (mostly under foreign ownership, e.g., JLR/Tata) face erosion; hybrids may bridge gaps, but without policy support, Chinese share could hit **20–30% by 2030**.
Expect more local assembly (e.g., BYD factories) and potential decline for legacy UK manufacturing.

### What Happens to Japanese Brands (Toyota, Honda, Nissan)?

- **Short-Term (2026–2028)**
Hybrid stronghold (Toyota #1 global seller in 2025 with 10.3M units), but low EV share (**15% in Japan**).
In China, Toyota holds 4th place but faces **8% sales drop**; globally, Chinese EVs challenge in exports (e.g., Australia: Chinese projected **43% by 2035** vs. Japanese decline).

- **Long-Term Outcomes**
Toyota's slow EV ramp-up (**110k BEVs in 2025**, **1.1% China share**) risks obsolescence; hybrids buy time (aiming 1M BEVs by 2030), but without acceleration, market share could erode **20–30% globally by 2030**.
Partnerships (e.g., with Chinese for tech) or policy protections in Japan may help, but competition intensifies.

### Overall Future Scenarios

- **Adaptation Wins**
Brands invest in affordable EVs/hybrids, localize production, and form alliances (e.g., EU/China joint ventures).
Global EV share hits **25–35% by 2026**, with China leading but others catching up via tech (e.g., software, batteries).

- **Decline for Laggards**
Without change, some brands face factory closures, mergers, or niche status (e.g., luxury focus for Mercedes/BMW).
China could dominate **50–70% of global EV exports by 2030**.

- **Policy Role**
Tariffs protect short-term but risk trade wars; subsidies/incentives (e.g., EU targets, US IRA revival) could help, but political shifts (e.g., US under Trump) favor hybrids over pure EVs.

**Chinese dominance accelerates electrification but pressures legacy brands to evolve or partner — ultimately benefiting consumers with cheaper, better EVs.**
-------------Source: Grok AI

 

[metanoia]

Not just in oz but the world over. Except the US, for now.

可以吗?

 

[ftan42]

As China dominates the global green EV market, the US is making a notable comeback by reversing through cancellation of existing contracts in the green energy asset installations, which involve multi-billion-dollar costs.

 

[syed putra]

If it's a EV with smaller batteries but has ice as generator for long distances i am in for it.
It has a "nap" Mode if battery sufficiently charged, air con and drink chiller can stay on without engine running the compressor. Just pure electric. Can go camping sleeping with aircon on.

 

[glockman]

If it's a EV with smaller batteries but has ice as generator for long distances i am in for it.
It has a "nap" Mode if battery sufficiently charged, air con and drink chiller can stay on without engine running the compressor. Just pure electric. Can go camping sleeping with aircon on.

where you want to camp in sg in the car? HDB carpark?

 

[metanoia]

where you want to camp in sg in the car? HDB carpark?

Camping in this kind of got and humid Singapore weather is insane. I don't understand why people do it.

 

[glockman]

Camping in this kind of got and humid Singapore weather is insane. I don't understand why people do it.

Yalor, I don't understand also. Seen so many campers along the beach. People usually camp when they have no home, or kena forced too during NS. Other than that, it's a bloody crazy thing to do.

 

[syed putra]

You can camp with aircon on in China erev

 

[syed putra]

You can camp With aircon on in china erev's

 

[syed putra]

Sodium ion batteries are here. Its longer lasting. Good in freezing weather. And does not thermal runaways. And cheaper. Once its fixed on cars, this is it. Lifetime guarantee. A car that does not require servicing.

 

[glockman]

You can camp with aircon on in China erev

This video talks about gearbox, not about aircon. My three previous petrol cars were automatic with steering wheel gear shifters. No clutch. The last one had a 7-speed gearbox. It's fun to play with gears on corners, without needing to use the brakes. Now with EVs, it's only one forward gear so need to use brakes more often. But the acceleration is shiok.

 

[glockman]

Sodium ion batteries are here. Its longer lasting. Good in freezing weather. And does not thermal runaways. And cheaper. Once its fixed on cars, this is it. Lifetime guarantee. A car that does not require servicing.

This is really amazing stuff. China is moving further ahead with this clean energy technology, great for the environment. And for cold weather too.

 

[eatshitndie]

Camping in this kind of got and humid Singapore weather is insane. I don't understand why people do it.

camping at night in sinkie climate is best. warm, humid, but breezy by the sea. every cold climate resident’s wet dream.

 

[syed putra]

This video talks about gearbox, not about aircon. My three previous petrol cars were automatic with steering wheel gear shifters. No clutch. The last one had a 7-speed gearbox. It's fun to play with gears on corners, without needing to use the brakes. Now with EVs, it's only one forward gear so need to use brakes more often. But the acceleration is shiok.

You silly. The aircon run on its own electric motor in EV. So you put in NAP mode, and sleep with aircon on in the jungle. With a bu if its a MPV. And chilled Champagne in the chiller.

On brake issues, you put on one pedal drive mode. So as you lift the accelerator, the car goes to charging mode slowing it down without need to brake.

 

[eatshitndie]

You silly. The aircon run on its own electric motor in EV. So you put in NAP mode, and sleep with aircon on in the jungle. With a bu if its a MPV. And chilled Champagne in the chiller.

best is camping in snow with gook babe.


or rain.

 

[metanoia]

best is camping in snow with gook babe.

She not afraid of getting attack by bears?

 

[eatshitndie]

She not afraid of getting attack by bears?

no incidence of bear attacks in gook mountains during winter as they hibernate. must heat up tent. otherwise hard to make love with freezing genitals.

 

[syed putra]

best is camping in snow with gook babe.


or rain.

EV's make camping like living in the comfort of your home. In hot humid weather or freezing snow. Provided, its not using lithium ion batteries as its performance diminish in freezing weather.

 

[eatshitndie]

EV's make camping like living in the comfort of your home. In hot humid weather or freezing snow. Provided, its not using lithium ion batteries as its performance diminish in freezing weather.

must have body warmth from gook babe in freezing weather. energy from ev not enough.