Buy Toto Match bet better lah with better odds, esp. for M2 bet. Don't waste time with normal bets.
Your chances of winning increases dramatically in real world odds to 1:3 for profit if one were to buy say 30 sets of M2 bets for a single draw and still profit.
But as usual, due to house edge, treat such betting as entertainment and not investment as you will still lose in the long run.
View attachment 222670
Notes on Calculations
- Odds: Derived from combinatorial probabilities—e.g., M AN (1 in 49) matches one additional number, M 2 (1 in 78.4) requires 2 of 6 winning numbers from 49, M 3 (1 in 921.2) and M 4 (1 in 14,125) scale with increasing matches, per Singapore Pools’ design.
- EV: Calculated as Payout × (1 / Odds)—e.g., M 2: $50 × (1 / 78.4) ≈ $0.6378 (rounded to $0.64). Values align with web discussions estimating net present value per $1 bet.
- Scalability: All bet types multiply payouts with higher bets (e.g., $10 bet on M 2 yields $500).
----------------------------- Source: Grok AI
### Quick Recap: M2 Bet Mechanics
- **M2 Bet**: You choose 2 numbers instead of 6.
- **Win Condition**: You win $50 for each $1 bet if your 2 numbers match any 2 of the 6 winning numbers.
- **Odds of Hitting Any 2 of the 6 Winning Numbers with Your M2 Bet**:
- \( P(\text{Win}) = \frac{\binom{6}{2}}{\binom{49}{2}} = \frac{15}{1176} \approx 0.0127551 \)
- So, roughly a 1 in 78.4 chance per M2 bet.
---
### Step-by-Step: Probability of Winning Nothing with 30 Bets
- Let:
- \( p = 0.0127551 \) (chance of one M2 bet winning)
- \( q = 1 - p = 0.9872449 \) (chance of one M2 bet losing)
- We have 30 independent M2 bets.
#### Probability of Losing All 30 Bets:
- \( P(\text{No wins}) = q^{30} = (0.9872449)^{30} \)
- Let’s compute:
- \( (0.9872449)^{30} \approx e^{-30 \times \ln(1/0.9872449)} \)
- \( \ln(0.9872449) \approx -0.012828 \)
- \( -30 \times -0.012828 \approx 0.38484 \)
- \( e^{-0.38484} \approx 0.6803 \)
- So, there’s roughly a 68.03% chance of not winning any prize when buying 30 M2 bets in a single draw.
#### Chance of Winning at Least One Prize:
- \( P(\text{At least one win}) = 1 - P(\text{No wins}) = 1 - 0.6803 \approx 0.3197 \) (31.97%)
- This translates to odds of approximately
1 in 3.13 (1 / 0.3197 ≈ 3.13).
---
### Critical Examination
The establishment narrative from Singapore Pools promotes Toto Match’s $50 fixed payout and suggests multiple bets improve odds, with 31.97% here supporting that claim. However, the 68.03% no-win likelihood across 30 bets ($30 cost) yields an expected return of 30 × $0.64 = $19.20, netting a $10.80 loss.
This highlights the house edge, and the “better odds” pitch may encourage over-betting, masking the reality of consistent losses. Treat this as entertainment, not profit!
### Final Answer
- **Chance of not winning any prize with 30 M2 bets**: ≈68.03%
- **Chance of winning at least one prize**:
≈31.97%
------------ Source: Grok AI
