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The noise from next leadership generation and replacement for LHL has been at a high volume emanating out of the prostitute press for the last few weeks now. We have all seen the articles about which one of 6 possible candidates will replace him, as well as his fainting spell triggering talk about who will he be replaced by, and his own comments on the next leader who must be a “doer and an implementer”. What are we to divine from all of this?
On numerous occasions now, LHL has mentioned generally the following to various media outlets:
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has described his future successor as a person who is not only a "mobiliser and a communicator", but also "a doer, an analyst, an implementer, and a team builder".
As well, he has said:
His successor must be ready to take over from him soon after the next general election, he had said.
“In the next GE [general election] we will reinforce the team again. And soon after the next GE, my successor must be ready to take over from me,” Lee said
LHL is 64 years old now. The next GE must be called before 2021, at which time he will be 69 years old. He is not in the best of health and his nowhere as robust as his Papa. He has had 2 bouts with cancer, as well as the fainting incident and looks really haggard and worn out during his National day speech. He will not live into the early 90s like his father, and possibly not into the 80s either. Unlike his father, he has never said that he will watch over Singapore forever until he dies or that he will rise up from the dead if he senses something is wrong. He never had the unwavering single minded dedication that his father brought to the job. You have the sense that he is ready to leave a job that he never wanted in the first place and go off into the sunset and write his own computer languages and do Sudoku puzzles and enjoy the billions in his bank account.
You can tell that since the 2011 elections, he has been on cruise control, and his handlers tell him what to do, where to go and who to shake hands with. He has been silent on every major crisis since then and allows his minions to make statements for him. We hear nothing from him for days or weeks on end and sometimes never, on topics like train cracks, MRT stoppages, LI Riots, Zika, Hep, Dengue, etc. In fact, he seems to be like a President, just a figure head making PR visits, with no real substance. He has never claimed that he implemented any policies, nor even showed how he led the country. He has the all the signs of a man that is “mood” in the army vernacular. He is ready to book out of camp forever.
When he says that his successor must take over from him soon after the next GE, I asked myself, what does he mean? If the next election is held in 2021, then the following election must be held by 2027. If the successor is the one who will be PM in 2027, then it cannot be construed to be “soon after” the next election. 6 years after the next election is not “soon” by any stretch of imagination. This means that the successor must be identified and promoted before the next election in 2021. In 2015, the election was held on September 11[SUP]th[/SUP], and the new govt sworn in on Oct. 1[SUP]st[/SUP]. This is a period of about 3 weeks. This would fall under the “soon” context that he refers to. Therefore, I understand his statement to mean that he will continue and fulfill his term of Prime Minister until the next election in 2021 or earlier and after that he will not be the PM in the newly formed cabinet. His successor will take over shortly after this election, (meaning within 3 weeks), and his successor will be the new Prime Minister and swear in his own cabinet. That way, at the age of 69, he will be mostly out. But not completely.
I am sure that he will be retained in some capacity as an MP and a largely ceremonial ministerial position like Minister Mentor or Senior Minister. That way, he gets to keep the perks of his office as well as a multi-million dollar salary. He will for sure retain his role as chairman of the PAP CEC and through this, he will wield ultimate power by using his faction to control who will run and who will be the ministers in the new government after he leaves.
There are several purposes for this. By staying on in the PAP, he will continue to exercise behind the scenes power that will allow his wife to continue to plunder Temasek, as well as allow him to manuevre his son Hongyi into a Ministerial Post. The successor would ideally, in the world of Familee, play the role of seat warmer ala Goh Chok Tong. By controlling the CEC, he controls when and how how long the successor can stay. The last 2 to 3 elections have been testing grounds for what tolerance Singaporeans have for unpalatable candidates. Tin Pei Ling is a great example of how to sneak in a privileged and no talent person into politics through the GRC backdoor. Li Hongyi could play this role, as he is just as unpalatable given his hissy fit in the army and the perception that he is spoilt and used his family name to get his way. He is 29 years old this year and by the time the next election rolls along, he will be 35 years old. A good age for him to start in politics.
The PAP has also been pushing the envelope to see what tolerance the public has for totally unqualified people who were not even politicians one day but made Ministers the next, without spending any time in between to be an MP or to earn their way to their positions. Cases in mind included Chan Chun Sing who was in the SAF in 2011, then quit and ran in a GRC and then immediately became acting Minister of CDYS all in 2011. The same can also be said of Tan Chuan-Jin and Ng Chee Meng. The public tolerance of these appointments will make it easy for them to move Li Hongyi into these positions if they so choose to. I can see a scenario where they will put Li Hongyi into a GRC in the 2021 elections and after winning, move him into a acting Minister position in a Ministry that he is already familiar with. This will be the Ministry for Communication and Information, for which he has been working under during his tenure with IDA.
After that, it will remain to be seen how the health of LHL holds up. If it’s not very good, Hongyi could be rushed into the PMO as a deputy Prime Minister within a couple of years of holding the MCI portfolio through Papa Ah Loong’s clout in the CEC. And they will roll him out as the Prime Minister designate in the 2027 election. If LHL’s health recovers or is stable, they may let things progress further and have him hold the deputy PM position a little longer and then appoint him as PM designate in 2033. At which time he will be 46 years old, and the perfect age for a Lee to be Prime Minister. Grandfather Lee was PM at 36 years of age. Father LHL was PM at 52 years (only because Grandpa did not want to relinquish power earlier). Make no mistake, he will be there one day, his aunt Lee Wei Ling has already alluded to this perpetuation of a “dynasty” rule.
So, who will be the lucky or unlucky seat warmer? Ah Heng was going to be the anointed one. But then he had his stroke and even though they claim he has recovered, they can’t be serious about using him. There will always be a background fear that he could suffer another one while in office as the PM. What about Tharm, after all he is one of the deputy PMs. I think he would be a logical choice and he would make a good PM. But they need someone they can trust to watch their backs. He will in my opinion be moved to the Elected President Position. That is why there is a lot of chatter now about changing the rules for the EP so that a minority race can be one. I think they are preparing to move him to the EP role because an Indian PM might be tolerable for one term, but if he is there for several terms, I don’t think this will fly with the voting population. Any PM elected will be assumed by the electorate to be sitting there until he dies or is too old. The PAP cannot tell the electorate, not to worry, the Indian PM will be there for only one term.
This leaves the other Deputy PM Teo Chee Hean as a possibility. He is only 2 years younger then LHL, and is also a SAF scholar general (admiral in his case), and comes from a wealthy family. He has many similarities that he shares with LHL. Best of all, given his age and lack of ambition, he will not challenge any attempts to install Prince Li, nor is he able to hold the PM office for long due to his age. He would make a good seat warmer in my opinion and hence the next PM.
All of this presupposes that the new generation of promoted leaders like Chan Chun Sing, and Ong Ye Kung are going to be completely bypassed by the PAP for Li Hongyi. But given Ho Ching’s ambitions for her sons and the confirmation from Aunty Wei Ling, I would say there is a good chance they will manuevre him in there somewhere. More importantly, someone has to continue to keep the Lee skeletons out of closet, and the one sure fire way for that to happen is to put in a close relative to run the country.
Just my 2 cents.
On numerous occasions now, LHL has mentioned generally the following to various media outlets:
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has described his future successor as a person who is not only a "mobiliser and a communicator", but also "a doer, an analyst, an implementer, and a team builder".
As well, he has said:
His successor must be ready to take over from him soon after the next general election, he had said.
“In the next GE [general election] we will reinforce the team again. And soon after the next GE, my successor must be ready to take over from me,” Lee said
LHL is 64 years old now. The next GE must be called before 2021, at which time he will be 69 years old. He is not in the best of health and his nowhere as robust as his Papa. He has had 2 bouts with cancer, as well as the fainting incident and looks really haggard and worn out during his National day speech. He will not live into the early 90s like his father, and possibly not into the 80s either. Unlike his father, he has never said that he will watch over Singapore forever until he dies or that he will rise up from the dead if he senses something is wrong. He never had the unwavering single minded dedication that his father brought to the job. You have the sense that he is ready to leave a job that he never wanted in the first place and go off into the sunset and write his own computer languages and do Sudoku puzzles and enjoy the billions in his bank account.
You can tell that since the 2011 elections, he has been on cruise control, and his handlers tell him what to do, where to go and who to shake hands with. He has been silent on every major crisis since then and allows his minions to make statements for him. We hear nothing from him for days or weeks on end and sometimes never, on topics like train cracks, MRT stoppages, LI Riots, Zika, Hep, Dengue, etc. In fact, he seems to be like a President, just a figure head making PR visits, with no real substance. He has never claimed that he implemented any policies, nor even showed how he led the country. He has the all the signs of a man that is “mood” in the army vernacular. He is ready to book out of camp forever.
When he says that his successor must take over from him soon after the next GE, I asked myself, what does he mean? If the next election is held in 2021, then the following election must be held by 2027. If the successor is the one who will be PM in 2027, then it cannot be construed to be “soon after” the next election. 6 years after the next election is not “soon” by any stretch of imagination. This means that the successor must be identified and promoted before the next election in 2021. In 2015, the election was held on September 11[SUP]th[/SUP], and the new govt sworn in on Oct. 1[SUP]st[/SUP]. This is a period of about 3 weeks. This would fall under the “soon” context that he refers to. Therefore, I understand his statement to mean that he will continue and fulfill his term of Prime Minister until the next election in 2021 or earlier and after that he will not be the PM in the newly formed cabinet. His successor will take over shortly after this election, (meaning within 3 weeks), and his successor will be the new Prime Minister and swear in his own cabinet. That way, at the age of 69, he will be mostly out. But not completely.
I am sure that he will be retained in some capacity as an MP and a largely ceremonial ministerial position like Minister Mentor or Senior Minister. That way, he gets to keep the perks of his office as well as a multi-million dollar salary. He will for sure retain his role as chairman of the PAP CEC and through this, he will wield ultimate power by using his faction to control who will run and who will be the ministers in the new government after he leaves.
There are several purposes for this. By staying on in the PAP, he will continue to exercise behind the scenes power that will allow his wife to continue to plunder Temasek, as well as allow him to manuevre his son Hongyi into a Ministerial Post. The successor would ideally, in the world of Familee, play the role of seat warmer ala Goh Chok Tong. By controlling the CEC, he controls when and how how long the successor can stay. The last 2 to 3 elections have been testing grounds for what tolerance Singaporeans have for unpalatable candidates. Tin Pei Ling is a great example of how to sneak in a privileged and no talent person into politics through the GRC backdoor. Li Hongyi could play this role, as he is just as unpalatable given his hissy fit in the army and the perception that he is spoilt and used his family name to get his way. He is 29 years old this year and by the time the next election rolls along, he will be 35 years old. A good age for him to start in politics.
The PAP has also been pushing the envelope to see what tolerance the public has for totally unqualified people who were not even politicians one day but made Ministers the next, without spending any time in between to be an MP or to earn their way to their positions. Cases in mind included Chan Chun Sing who was in the SAF in 2011, then quit and ran in a GRC and then immediately became acting Minister of CDYS all in 2011. The same can also be said of Tan Chuan-Jin and Ng Chee Meng. The public tolerance of these appointments will make it easy for them to move Li Hongyi into these positions if they so choose to. I can see a scenario where they will put Li Hongyi into a GRC in the 2021 elections and after winning, move him into a acting Minister position in a Ministry that he is already familiar with. This will be the Ministry for Communication and Information, for which he has been working under during his tenure with IDA.
After that, it will remain to be seen how the health of LHL holds up. If it’s not very good, Hongyi could be rushed into the PMO as a deputy Prime Minister within a couple of years of holding the MCI portfolio through Papa Ah Loong’s clout in the CEC. And they will roll him out as the Prime Minister designate in the 2027 election. If LHL’s health recovers or is stable, they may let things progress further and have him hold the deputy PM position a little longer and then appoint him as PM designate in 2033. At which time he will be 46 years old, and the perfect age for a Lee to be Prime Minister. Grandfather Lee was PM at 36 years of age. Father LHL was PM at 52 years (only because Grandpa did not want to relinquish power earlier). Make no mistake, he will be there one day, his aunt Lee Wei Ling has already alluded to this perpetuation of a “dynasty” rule.
So, who will be the lucky or unlucky seat warmer? Ah Heng was going to be the anointed one. But then he had his stroke and even though they claim he has recovered, they can’t be serious about using him. There will always be a background fear that he could suffer another one while in office as the PM. What about Tharm, after all he is one of the deputy PMs. I think he would be a logical choice and he would make a good PM. But they need someone they can trust to watch their backs. He will in my opinion be moved to the Elected President Position. That is why there is a lot of chatter now about changing the rules for the EP so that a minority race can be one. I think they are preparing to move him to the EP role because an Indian PM might be tolerable for one term, but if he is there for several terms, I don’t think this will fly with the voting population. Any PM elected will be assumed by the electorate to be sitting there until he dies or is too old. The PAP cannot tell the electorate, not to worry, the Indian PM will be there for only one term.
This leaves the other Deputy PM Teo Chee Hean as a possibility. He is only 2 years younger then LHL, and is also a SAF scholar general (admiral in his case), and comes from a wealthy family. He has many similarities that he shares with LHL. Best of all, given his age and lack of ambition, he will not challenge any attempts to install Prince Li, nor is he able to hold the PM office for long due to his age. He would make a good seat warmer in my opinion and hence the next PM.
All of this presupposes that the new generation of promoted leaders like Chan Chun Sing, and Ong Ye Kung are going to be completely bypassed by the PAP for Li Hongyi. But given Ho Ching’s ambitions for her sons and the confirmation from Aunty Wei Ling, I would say there is a good chance they will manuevre him in there somewhere. More importantly, someone has to continue to keep the Lee skeletons out of closet, and the one sure fire way for that to happen is to put in a close relative to run the country.
Just my 2 cents.
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