Structural Employment - an explanation

[scroobal]

I wrote the following statement -

" I am guessing they are victims of structural unemployment that many Singaporeans of that age group are impacted by."

And realised that people assumed that it meant that those attending the rally are actually unemployed. The term structural employment is a holistic term to cover underemployment, displaced employment, mismatches in employment etc. An engineering graduate driving a taxi, a scientist driving a taxi, a local trained kindergarten teacher working as daycare assistant are examples of victims of structural unemployment. In isolated incidents, it is called underemployed but when it occurs across the spectrum, it falls under structural unemployment.

The Govt however for their employment stats regards all of them as fully employed. This has been the misleading stats for years and has allowed this govt to get away with blue murder. It only dawned on someone when a ex PRC scientist and a new Singaporean with a PHD from Stanford (not some backyard hole) began driving a taxi in Singapore and began blogging out it. The story of Cai Mingjie opened more than local eyes. It told recent immigrants, that it can happen to them and their kids as well.

One well known practice is to retrench people when they are about to reach age 40 or thereabouts. In Singapore unlike most countries where the state provides basic medical cover, employers do so in Singapore. The premium shoots up. Therefore there is an incentive to retrench locals and PRs and hire EP holders who don't have to have their employers contribute to CPF.

Lee Chiu San tells the story of the Inchcape cleaner whose fully loaded monthly costs was much higher and the incentive to bring foreign labour made immediate sense to an employer.

I am just surprised that people are not aware of what is going on.

Here is the kicker and I hope someone in Paliaments ask CJ Tan to answer this - the stats for structural employment which has been tracked for sometime. Just as the White Paper completely missed out another important issue - emigration, the Govt has been tracking reasons for emigration for the last 25 years at 2 stages - (1) certificate of good conduct application and (2) renouncing citizenship. The questionnaire is very detailed for the latter and they also have a family composite profile including sibling and parents left behind.

It was x Perm Sec that revealed that an entire cohort of Hkongers left as quickly as they came and in made a tidy bonus selling their fast appreciating HDB flats. The same lot who were given 2 year peppercorn rent for HDB flats including eflats and masionettes.

Despite all this I am shocked that the white paper continues to revolve around growth. And why does the white paper does not address or even cover the extent of emigration, reasons for emigrations, the kids who would have been the future of this country leaving as well and their number impacting the final numbers.

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

You are ALL OVER THE SHOP and yet not know where to stop, to make the best purchase.

If you want to go this route then at least use the term fractured employment. This is the typical employment scenario in a fascist-run state that has been in power for a very long time, where a fascist government deliberately destructs employment of its own citizens to pursue its own party needs. This occurs mostly when a fascist government attempts to limit monetary gain to its citizens by allowing a large inflow of cheaper foreign labourers that take up jobs that will otherwise be taken by local citizens.

Stick to the FTAs bro. You cannot go wrong because that is where the issue of overpopulation comes from.

 

[mojito]

Lee Chiu San tells the story of the Inchcape cleaner whose fully loaded monthly costs was much higher and the incentive to bring foreign labour made immediate sense to an employer.

I am just surprised that people are not aware of what is going on.

I'm sorry I didn't try hard enough. Employment terms equalisation was an idea I had tried to push for the past year or so, but now it seems the infestation is too endemic to be painlessly resolved with employers/corporations.

I blame it all on pegging civil service pay and bonuses with nominal GDP growth. You first have a compliant bureaucracy pushing for growth at the expense of social costs which they would manage with great efficiency by pretending it is not there. The other problem if my memory serves well is that while bonuses are pegged to real GDP growth, base salary is always adjusted to compensate for inflation, unlike most peons slaving away in the corporate world.

If MAS forex policy is the only tool used to combat inflation, then I think we have a problem. Our high inflation is not externally driven; it is caused by sharp increase in domestic demand which can only come from an increasing population chasing after the same number of goods/resources.

 

[indig10]

Just as the White Paper completely missed out another important issue - emigration, the Govt has been tracking reasons for emigration for the last 25 years at 2 stages - (1) certificate of good conduct application and (2) renouncing citizenship. The questionnaire is very detailed for the latter and they also have a family composite profile including sibling and parents left behind.

<Truncated>

Despite all this I am shocked that the white paper continues to revolve around growth. And why does the white paper does not address or even cover the extent of emigration, reasons for emigrations, the kids who would have been the future of this country leaving as well and their number impacting the final numbers.

Scroobal,

I don't recall ministers ever releasing the data on emigration and details. I could be wrong. Just a slight correction, it is the Certificate of No Criminal Conviction (CNCC) that you're referring to for (1).

I have estimated that approximately 12,000+ CNCCs were issued in one year, a few years ago. The figure has likely increased in the past few years.

For the benefit of other readers - this gives you an idea of the number of people who applied for PR *and* have gotten preliminary approval to become one in their destination country. This CNCC can only be issued when the issuing country has requested for it. It means that the applicant (and his family members) each have gotten approval for permanent residency.

12,000+ CNCCs - you can imagine how many born and bred Singaporean families there are within this figure. The exodus has risen markedly in the previous decade.

I think you'll agree, Scroobal, that this data is political dynamite for the ruling party and they will not release it in its empirical form. Just look at how Singaporeans and PRs are lumped together in other data released. You can imagine Leong Sze Hian tearing them apart on the numbers. As for the ministry and the cabinet, they have the data and they know the details. They just won't release it in the way the parliamentary question is asked, as we've seen with their replies on manpower data.

Another thing, the questionnaire is very detailed and there is a section for your input on the reasons for emigration in the CNCC and for the citizenship renouncement.

Do you think emigrating/renouncing Singaporeans will ever put the true reasons down at all?

Even the kopitiam uncle and auntie will tell you that the data from this section of the questionnaire is useless.

 

[scroobal]

Bro, Thats the trouble, they did not reveal all these when these are material. Population / demographics studies are well anchored in most countries and things such as longitudinal studies are core in this area. Yet the White Paper was light slightly more detailed than MacDonald's menu.

Yes, CNCC, used to be called good conduct cert. Interestingly PRs are also required to have one from their country of residence if they intent to migrate to a new country. And they have this data as well.

The early questionnaire was quite confrontational and naturally people would rather not burn their bridges. In recent years, its a lot more friendly and the options though more an granular are not confrontational. Cost of living, quality of living, schooling etc. i do feel like you that it it is not quite reflective and they should have an independent agency do it with confidentiality built in.

Yes the whole piece is politically sensitive but you cannot offer a white paper for the country to consider and not tell them that beef patty is not fully beef.

Scroobal,

I don't recall ministers ever releasing the data on emigration and details. I could be wrong. Just a slight correction, it is the Certificate of No Criminal Conviction (CNCC) that you're referring to for (1).

I have estimated that approximately 12,000+ CNCCs were issued in one year, a few years ago. The figure has likely increased in the past few years.

For the benefit of other readers - this gives you an idea of the number of people who applied for PR *and* have gotten preliminary approval to become one in their destination country. This CNCC can only be issued when the issuing country has requested for it. It means that the applicant (and his family members) each have gotten approval for permanent residency.

12,000+ CNCCs - you can imagine how many born and bred Singaporean families there are within this figure. The exodus has risen markedly in the previous decade.

I think you'll agree, Scroobal, that this data is political dynamite for the ruling party and they will not release it in its empirical form. Just look at how Singaporeans and PRs are lumped together in other data released. You can imagine Leong Sze Hian tearing them apart on the numbers. As for the ministry and the cabinet, they have the data and they know the details. They just won't release it in the way the parliamentary question is asked, as we've seen with their replies on manpower data.

Another thing, the questionnaire is very detailed and there is a section for your input on the reasons for emigration in the CNCC and for the citizenship renouncement.

Do you think emigrating/renouncing Singaporeans will ever put the true reasons down at all?

Even the kopitiam uncle and auntie will tell you that the data from this section of the questionnaire is useless.

 

[scroobal]

We are in a quagmire and employers are going to be hit hard. They should have done this long time ago in a measured way. They have drunk too long from the goblet of cheap labour and every time it looked like it was going to be empty, we would find another cheaper country for labour supply. After Myanmar, what next.

Increasing pop to drive demand to then raise GDP is exactly what they are hooked on. GCT started this at the end of his 1st term.

Our economy is small that we can manipulate the forex market and set the SGD to the precise price point. And we are damn good at it. All local dealers have an individual case file with MAS and anyone screwing with the SGD will be hauled up. And yes, highly dependent on it Anything wrong with the economy, they well head to the forex market. It is like the folded piece of paper that you place under one leg of a wobbly table.

I'm sorry I didn't try hard enough. Employment terms equalisation was an idea I had tried to push for the past year or so, but now it seems the infestation is too endemic to be painlessly resolved with employers/corporations.

If MAS forex policy is the only tool used to combat inflation, then I think we have a problem. Our high inflation is not externally driven; it is caused by sharp increase in domestic demand which can only come from an increasing population chasing after the same number of goods/resources.

 

[indig10]

We have ministry and DOS people who are capable of longitudinal studies and paper writing. It is a core for certain key people. We also have a supposedly robust process of paper writing. Why then did this particular white paper - from its inception to publication - fail so spectacularly? The paper wasn't just light - it was probably made by lovers of Swiss Cheese.

I hope the NPTD people reflect well on this episode because we are becoming a case study on "How Not To Do It" to other governments, as we speak.

I also hope that the leadership realize that they have royally dropped the ball on this one, and understand the consequences hereafter.

Thanks on the early form of CNCC. As always, learning something new from you. Yes on the part from having one if they intend to migrate.

The beef patty is not fully beef, and contains horsemeat just like the Europeans are learning.

 

[scroobal]

I was surprised by the quality. It was spearheaded by the former deputy CEO of LTA when Yam was CEO. The same team that led their Minister down and he got the sack. To make matters worse, the minister of charge is Grace Fu (assisted by Iswaran) who is only there because of her father and his former master. Nepotism and old boys network only delivers mediocrity. I guess a "confluence" of factors.

And yes, they gave us swiss cheese and the swiss standard of living is nowhere in sight.

We have ministry and DOS people who are capable of longitudinal studies and paper writing. It is a core for certain key people. We also have a supposedly robust process of paper writing. Why then did this particular white paper - from its inception to publication - fail so spectacularly? The paper wasn't just light - it was probably made by lovers of Swiss Cheese.

The beef patty is not fully beef, and contains horsemeat just like the Europeans are learning.

 

[neddy]

Swiss standard Singapore?
Food security issue.
Will Singapore be still self-sufficient in Chicken eggs production with a 6.9m population?

 

[indig10]

What I was personally disappointed with, was the mediocrity in both the "technical" side of paper writing and the "soft" side of marketing it.

In the past, I could forgive them for lacking the soft side. It seems that now, even the technical "soundness" is on shaky ground. I can understand that it's not an easy task working across ministries to present a coherent whole for the paper. But we don't even need current generation folks to dissect this paper; if the Old Guard saw this paper, it would go straight into the bin.

This episode is one in a series that adds on to the perception that the ruling party is running off the rails.

I was surprised by the quality. It was spearheaded by the former deputy CEO of LTA when Yam was CEO. The same team that led their Minister down and he got the sack. To make matters worse, the minister of charge is Grace Fu (assisted by Iswaran) who is only there because of her father and his former master. Nepotism and old boys network only delivers mediocrity. I guess a "confluence" of factors.

 

[Fook Seng]

Swiss standard Singapore?
Food security issue.
Will Singapore be still self-sufficient in Chicken eggs production with a 6.9m population?

Don't think we are self-sufficient in eggs today.

 

[Bigfuck]

No such word as structural employment. By the way this guy writes, he is in MHA or maybe somewhere in law, to some extent. Not econs nor technical engineering guy.

 

[aurvandil]

The person who actually did the paper writing was one Ngiam Siew Ying, Director of the Policy and Planning Directorate at the National Population and Talent Division. She is a high flyer who made superscale in barely her 30s. As her name suggest, she is related to Ngiam Tong Dow.

I always find it useful to have images of people as it helps me relate to what they are saying. Unfortunately she is a bit shy and I was unable to find any images of her. There is however this video of her from an interview she did with CNA. Check out 1:07.

[video=youtube;4Z_j6Ax5N1A]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=4Z_j6Ax5N1A[/video]

I was surprised by the quality. It was spearheaded by the former deputy CEO of LTA when Yam was CEO. The same team that led their Minister down and he got the sack. To make matters worse, the minister of charge is Grace Fu (assisted by Iswaran) who is only there because of her father and his former master. Nepotism and old boys network only delivers mediocrity. I guess a "confluence" of factors.

And yes, they gave us swiss cheese and the swiss standard of living is nowhere in sight.

 

[indig10]

Thanks for the video. It does help to put a face to the name. I found the clip too short for discernment. Slight digression, paper writing has to go up and down the hierarchy several (many) times, while simultaneously going across ministries. It's as much an art, as a science.

More interesting to me was the second half, where AP Paulin Straughan responded to reporter's questions. Quite telling the way she chose her words and walked the tightrope adeptly. Kudos to the reporter for asking the right questions.

The person who actually did the paper writing was one Ngiam Siew Ying, Director of the Policy and Planning Directorate at the National Population and Talent Division. She is a high flyer who made superscale in barely her 30s. As her name suggest, she is related to Ngiam Tong Dow.

I always find it useful to have images of people as it helps me relate to what they are saying. Unfortunately she is a bit shy and I was unable to find any images of her. There is however this video of her from an interview she did with CNA. Check out 1:07.

YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=4Z_j6Ax5N1A

 

[aurvandil]

The interview was done before the White Paper was picked apart so there is this smug ,"I am smarter than you" look on her chubby face. Would love to see how she is looking now ...

On paper writing, this was her baby. It was extremely jealously guarded given that it was supposed to a plum CEP enhancing project. When they put it out, it was expected the White Paper would pass quietly with just the usual grumblings in SBF, TRE, TOC etc. They most certainly weren't expecting it to be picked apart and a 4,000 to 5,000 strong protest crowd to show up at Hong Lim.

On getting the best people to work on this ... well it was a plum CEP enhancing project. You should know how the Civil Service works. Such projects only go to the scions of the well connected so that they can justify high CEP and promotion. These then guard it with their lives for fear someone else might get noticed by the Minister and steal all the credit.

Thanks for the video. It does help to put a face to the name. I found the clip too short for discernment. Slight digression, paper writing has to go up and down the hierarchy several (many) times, while simultaneously going across ministries. It's as much an art, as a science.

 

[scroobal]

Amy Hing overseas all 4 directorates and Siew Ying heads one of them and did the lead coordination and authored the document. The input came from 3 other directorates. A paper of this nature must be endorsed by PS and a DS is the usual accountable exec. High profile paper that pulled in Halimah and CJ Tan. Sadly yet another nepotistic presence.

 

[scroobal]

Well said.

Its a really poor practice - they sent the eldest son for cable car incident and the second son for Hotel New World.

On paper writing, this was her baby. It was extremely jealously guarded given that it was supposed to a plum CEP enhancing project. When they put it out, it was expected the White Paper would pass quietly with just the usual grumblings in SBF, TRE, TOC etc. They most certainly weren't expecting it to be picked apart and a 4,000 to 5,000 strong protest crowd to show up at Hong Lim.

On getting the best people to work on this ... well it was a plum CEP enhancing project. You should know how the Civil Service works. Such projects only go to the scions of the well connected so that they can justify high CEP and promotion. These then guard it with their lives for fear someone else might get noticed by the Minister and steal all the credit.

 

[scroobal]

She was really struggling to answer. The media must learn to pick the right people. pauline has been engaged in the early stages, her husband is angmo and she is an NMP. And she is known prima donna. You want straight and substantive answers on sociology you go straight to Chua Beng Huat who is her boss. Not only will you get both barrels, you will be given the calibre of the rounds used.

More interesting to me was the second half, where AP Paulin Straughan responded to reporter's questions. Quite telling the way she chose her words and walked the tightrope adeptly. Kudos to the reporter for asking the right questions.

 

[indig10]

Haha. Yes indeed, CBH is the right choice. Even non-FASS undergrads know him and his research well. But he is too direct for the ruling party. Funny wisp here:

http://profile.nus.edu.sg/fass/soccbh/

She was really struggling to answer. The media must learn to pick the right people. pauline has been engaged in the early stages, her husband is angmo and she is an NMP. And she is known prima donna. You want straight and substantive answers on sociology you go straight to Chua Beng Huat who is her boss. Not only will you get both barrels, you will be given the calibre of the rounds used.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Indeed, i've always wondered about the employment figures and how they gel with reality of friends and family being perpetually forced from one job to another, or facing difficulty finding meaningful work.

The employment figures are a fat lie. If you can count a Ph.D. taxi driver or a engineer turned online blogshop owner as being employed, that explains a lot of things.