http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/5088479/economists-warn-200000-jobs/
Economists are warning 200,000 jobs in Australia may go by the end of next year as the global financial crisis takes hold.
National Australia Bank economists predicted growth would drop to 1.25 per cent by the middle of next year, with an interest rate cut to 4.5 per cent and unemployment at about 6 per cent by the end of the year, meaning the loss of 200,000 jobs, Fairfax newspapers report on Sunday.
The bank's chief economist, Alan Oster, said the uncertainty over jobs could also lead to a quiet Christmas for retailers.
He said he expected October into December to be "lousy", despite the federal government's economic stimulus package designed to keep money flowing.
"I think Christmas is going to be a lot slower and weaker and then it will continue getting weaker into next year," Mr Oster told Fairfax.
Professor Guay Lim, from the Melbourne Institute for Applied Economics and Social Research, said problems would occur if people decided to save and not spend the $10.4 billion the government will grant to pensioners, eligible families with children and new home owners.
"We expect slow growth and an increase in unemployment," he told Fairfax.
"We think unemployment will go up a notch to 4.8 per cent or 5 per cent by the middle of next year.
"People need to maintain a level of spending and buying Christmas presents. We cannot save excessively because the economy will go into a tailspin."
A spokesman for the NSW Business Chamber said consumers were resilient and businesses were hoping people would spend the extra cash from the government.
Economists are warning 200,000 jobs in Australia may go by the end of next year as the global financial crisis takes hold.
National Australia Bank economists predicted growth would drop to 1.25 per cent by the middle of next year, with an interest rate cut to 4.5 per cent and unemployment at about 6 per cent by the end of the year, meaning the loss of 200,000 jobs, Fairfax newspapers report on Sunday.
The bank's chief economist, Alan Oster, said the uncertainty over jobs could also lead to a quiet Christmas for retailers.
He said he expected October into December to be "lousy", despite the federal government's economic stimulus package designed to keep money flowing.
"I think Christmas is going to be a lot slower and weaker and then it will continue getting weaker into next year," Mr Oster told Fairfax.
Professor Guay Lim, from the Melbourne Institute for Applied Economics and Social Research, said problems would occur if people decided to save and not spend the $10.4 billion the government will grant to pensioners, eligible families with children and new home owners.
"We expect slow growth and an increase in unemployment," he told Fairfax.
"We think unemployment will go up a notch to 4.8 per cent or 5 per cent by the middle of next year.
"People need to maintain a level of spending and buying Christmas presents. We cannot save excessively because the economy will go into a tailspin."
A spokesman for the NSW Business Chamber said consumers were resilient and businesses were hoping people would spend the extra cash from the government.
