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Chitchat Why Tiong not coming ?
- Thread starter congo9
- Start date
Can poor Sinkies do the honourable thing and get the fuck out of Sickipoora? We need to create space for foreigners.
Got one saying tiong there got so many Singapore and is much more advance. Don't play play.
https://m.investing.com/analysis/balance-sheet-recession-looms-for-chinese-economy-200639328
What Exactly Is a Balance Sheet Recession?
Put simply, a balance sheet recession refers to an economic situation in which the main problem affecting an economy is the excessive debt burden of households, businesses, or both.It’s a concept popularized by the economist – Richard Koo – and particularly focuses on the context of the economic challenges faced by countries stuck in deleveraging (repaying debt) and, thus, anemic credit demand.
Recap 1moon ago...SG revival depend on Tiongkok..
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asi...-04-yy-beating-advanced-estimates-2023-05-25/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asi...-04-yy-beating-advanced-estimates-2023-05-25/
https://asiatimes.com/2023/06/china-urged-to-boost-home-prices-or-face-recession/
Tiongkok On-shore falling price issue threaten it's economical growth
Some analysts said property developers had tried to raise prices in April but then faced huge resistance from homebuyers, so they cut prices again in May. They said such a trend resulted in downward pressure on the secondary markets in most Chinese cities last month.
Some property experts and economists say the worsening local government debt problems have hurt homebuyers’ confidence in recent months. Media reports say Yunan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces have warned that they may default this year.
Zhao Yanjing, vice president of the China Association of City Planning and a professor at Xiamen University, says in an article that the central government should help local governments resolve their debt problems, prevent them from selling lands at discounts, extend bank loans for families, companies and local governments, and also limit capital outflow.
“China’s current economic slowdown is not related to external trade, which has remained stable over the past three years despite the negative impact of the trade war, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the epidemic,” he says. “The real cause of the crisis is that we have a big debt problem on our balance sheets.”
He says the central government should bail out the heavily-indebted local governments – because it was the center that had capped land prices and that also had taken away some of the local governments’ land sales revenue in the past, making them unable to repay their debts. He says the central government should purchase the local governments’ non-performing assets and revitalize them.
He warns that China will face an economic recession if no actions are taken.
The Economic Herald on June 15 also published a series about what the central government should do to resolve the worsening local debt problems.
Zhang Ming, a financial expert at the CITIC Foundation for Reform and Development Studies, says in one of the articles that the central government’s property curbs have hurt property developers’ income and ability to buy lands in recent years. Zhang says that, because local governments could not generate enough revenue through land sales, they turned to further borrowing to continue their investment projects.
“At present,” Zhang says, “local governments are facing huge expense pressures. They should be allowed to impose new taxes, such as consumption tax, and to transfer some of their medical and social security expenses to the central government as they cope with aging populations. In the future, we should base appraisals of local governments not only on their GDP growth but also on the scale of their indebtedness.”
Citing the International Monetary Fund’s data, Zhang says China’s total government debt-to-GDP ratio was about 108% as of mid-2022, which is not high when compared with the United States’ 110%. However, he says it’s unhealthy that local governments, not the central government, are bearing most of these debts.
According to China’s Ministry of Finance, the outstanding amount of local government debt grew 15.1% to 35.06 trillion yuan ($5.02 trillion) at the end of last year from 30.47 trillion yuan a year earlier.
In the first five months of this year, overall property prices fell 0.9% from the same period of last year.
“The real estate market is still recovering and facing many challenges,” NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said in a media briefing. “In the next stage, the Chinese economy will continue to recover, and the government’s supportive measures will show effects. Market expectations will also improve, helping to stabilize home prices.”
“Property prices have declined month-on-month for two consecutive months, April and May, meaning that the small rebound in the first quarter failed to carry over,” said Yan Yuejin, director of the research center of E-house China. “Due to rising sales pressures, property developers slashed prices significantly in some cities last month, hurting the overall markets.”
Chief researcher Li Yujia of the Guangdong provincial residential policy research center said price-sensitive young homebuyers were scared away when property developers tried to raise prices in April. Li said property developers then cut prices again.
Although the PBoC lowered the loan prime rate by 10 basis points on Tuesday, some analysts said it is not strong enough to turn around the unfavorable market situations.
Chen Wenjing, market research director of the China Index Academy’s index division, writes in a research note that, as the downward pressure in the property markets is growing, more and more people are expecting that the government and the central bank will unveil new supportive measures.
She says property developers probably will be able to borrow more easily and slow their sales campaigns while regulators will launch new rules to lower property transaction costs.
Read: China retail sales growth slow, job markets shaky
Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3
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Tiongkok On-shore falling price issue threaten it's economical growth
Some analysts said property developers had tried to raise prices in April but then faced huge resistance from homebuyers, so they cut prices again in May. They said such a trend resulted in downward pressure on the secondary markets in most Chinese cities last month.
Some property experts and economists say the worsening local government debt problems have hurt homebuyers’ confidence in recent months. Media reports say Yunan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces have warned that they may default this year.
Zhao Yanjing, vice president of the China Association of City Planning and a professor at Xiamen University, says in an article that the central government should help local governments resolve their debt problems, prevent them from selling lands at discounts, extend bank loans for families, companies and local governments, and also limit capital outflow.
“China’s current economic slowdown is not related to external trade, which has remained stable over the past three years despite the negative impact of the trade war, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the epidemic,” he says. “The real cause of the crisis is that we have a big debt problem on our balance sheets.”
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He adds: “Since July 2021, property markets have been suppressed by policies, leaving a lot of homes and land in the markets. In this situation, families, companies and local governments dumped their assets, resulting in further contraction in asset prices and a vicious cycle of debt problems.”He says the central government should bail out the heavily-indebted local governments – because it was the center that had capped land prices and that also had taken away some of the local governments’ land sales revenue in the past, making them unable to repay their debts. He says the central government should purchase the local governments’ non-performing assets and revitalize them.
He warns that China will face an economic recession if no actions are taken.
Local government debts
Zhao’s comments were first made in a forum organized by the CITIC Foundation for Reform and Development Studies on February 25. They were summarised by CITIC Group’s Economic Herald and reprinted by Guancha.cn on Monday.The Economic Herald on June 15 also published a series about what the central government should do to resolve the worsening local debt problems.
Zhang Ming, a financial expert at the CITIC Foundation for Reform and Development Studies, says in one of the articles that the central government’s property curbs have hurt property developers’ income and ability to buy lands in recent years. Zhang says that, because local governments could not generate enough revenue through land sales, they turned to further borrowing to continue their investment projects.
“At present,” Zhang says, “local governments are facing huge expense pressures. They should be allowed to impose new taxes, such as consumption tax, and to transfer some of their medical and social security expenses to the central government as they cope with aging populations. In the future, we should base appraisals of local governments not only on their GDP growth but also on the scale of their indebtedness.”
Citing the International Monetary Fund’s data, Zhang says China’s total government debt-to-GDP ratio was about 108% as of mid-2022, which is not high when compared with the United States’ 110%. However, he says it’s unhealthy that local governments, not the central government, are bearing most of these debts.
According to China’s Ministry of Finance, the outstanding amount of local government debt grew 15.1% to 35.06 trillion yuan ($5.02 trillion) at the end of last year from 30.47 trillion yuan a year earlier.
Sluggish property markets
On June 15, the NBS said that 24 out of 70 major Chinese cities recorded year-on-year price drops for their newly-built properties in May, compared with only seven in April. It said 55 cities reported property price drops in their secondary markets in May, compared with 34 in April.In the first five months of this year, overall property prices fell 0.9% from the same period of last year.
“The real estate market is still recovering and facing many challenges,” NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said in a media briefing. “In the next stage, the Chinese economy will continue to recover, and the government’s supportive measures will show effects. Market expectations will also improve, helping to stabilize home prices.”
“Property prices have declined month-on-month for two consecutive months, April and May, meaning that the small rebound in the first quarter failed to carry over,” said Yan Yuejin, director of the research center of E-house China. “Due to rising sales pressures, property developers slashed prices significantly in some cities last month, hurting the overall markets.”
Chief researcher Li Yujia of the Guangdong provincial residential policy research center said price-sensitive young homebuyers were scared away when property developers tried to raise prices in April. Li said property developers then cut prices again.
Although the PBoC lowered the loan prime rate by 10 basis points on Tuesday, some analysts said it is not strong enough to turn around the unfavorable market situations.
Chen Wenjing, market research director of the China Index Academy’s index division, writes in a research note that, as the downward pressure in the property markets is growing, more and more people are expecting that the government and the central bank will unveil new supportive measures.
She says property developers probably will be able to borrow more easily and slow their sales campaigns while regulators will launch new rules to lower property transaction costs.
Read: China retail sales growth slow, job markets shaky
Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3
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- US stocks have started 2023 on a tear, with the benchmark S&P 500 up 14% year-to-date.
- But China's slowing growth poses threats to the rally, given American companies' huge business exposure to the Asian economy.
- US-listed companies' profits could fall if the world's second-largest economy keeps floundering.
From a slowdown in industrial production to plunging import and export levels, investors are assessing warning signs that Beijing is struggling to restart growth after it ended its hard-line zero-COVID restrictions late last year.
The People's Bank of China has responded by slashing key interest rates, in a hope that lower borrowing costs will revive slumping spending levels.
But even those measures have failed to soothe investors, with the benchmark CSI 300 stock-market index slipping 0.2% last week after the bank lowered mortgage-linked loan repayment rates.
And stagnating growth in China could soon become a pain point for US stocks – which have started the year on a breakneck tear – as well.
The AI craze has fueled a massive rally for mega-cap tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft – with their colossal share-price gains lifting the benchmark S&P 500 14% and the Nasdaq Composite 31% year-to-date.
But many of the stocks that are surging do huge amounts of business in China, so could see their earnings take a hit if the PBoC's latest efforts fail to spark a revival.
Big Tech giants Nvidia and Tesla both feature in a list of the 25 listed companies most exposed to the world's second-largest economy, according to a list published by Bank of America earlier this year.
Apple and Ford also manufacture vast amounts of goods in China, while Nike and Starbucks derive a significant proportion of their earnings from selling to people there.
US-listed Chinese companies are already suffering from the slowdown, with shares in the e-commerce giant JD.com plunging 35% year-to-date.
It's been easy for investors to play down China's slowdown as a factor for stocks so far this year, with markets booming thanks to both AI and traders' expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates.
But with growth re-emerging as a buzzword for top strategists, don't be surprised if China's economy becomes a top-of-mind issue soon.
Read more: China's economy is way more screwed than anyone thought
Read the original article on Business Insider
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https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...china_first_followed_by_the_world_939645.html
Seem like China very important liao
Seem like China very important liao
https://www.economist.com/finance-a.../chinas-economy-is-on-course-for-a-double-dip
China prides itself on firm, unswerving leadership and stable economic growth. That should make its fortunes easy to predict. But in recent months, the world’s second-biggest economy has been full of surprises, wrong-footing seasoned China-watchers and savvy investors alike.
Early this year, for example, China’s economy grew faster than expected, thanks to the country’s abrupt exit from covid-19 controls. Then, in April and May, the opposite happened: the economy recovered more slowly than hoped. Figures for retail sales, investment and property sales all fell short of expectations.
The unemployment rate among China’s urban youth passed 20%, the highest since data were first recorded in 2018. Some now think the economy might not grow at all in the second quarter, compared with the first.
By China’s standards this would be a “double dip”, says Ting Lu of Nomura, a bank.
China prides itself on firm, unswerving leadership and stable economic growth. That should make its fortunes easy to predict. But in recent months, the world’s second-biggest economy has been full of surprises, wrong-footing seasoned China-watchers and savvy investors alike.
Early this year, for example, China’s economy grew faster than expected, thanks to the country’s abrupt exit from covid-19 controls. Then, in April and May, the opposite happened: the economy recovered more slowly than hoped. Figures for retail sales, investment and property sales all fell short of expectations.
The unemployment rate among China’s urban youth passed 20%, the highest since data were first recorded in 2018. Some now think the economy might not grow at all in the second quarter, compared with the first.
By China’s standards this would be a “double dip”, says Ting Lu of Nomura, a bank.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/maj...23-gdp-forecasts-recovery-falters-2023-06-16/
June 16, 20237:00 PM GMT+8Updated 9 days ago
Employees work on the trucks production line during an organised media tour to the Shaanxi Automobile Group factory in Xian, Shaanxi province, China May 17, 2023. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo
BEIJING, June 16 (Reuters) - Several major banks have cut their 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for China after May data showed a post-COVID recovery was faltering in the world's second-largest economy.
Nomura has cut its forecast for China's 2023 GDP growth to 5.1% from 5.5%, the Japanese bank said in a note on Friday, following similar moves by UBS (UBSG.S), Standard Chartered (STAN.L), Bank of America (BoA) (BAC.N) and JPMorgan (JPM.N).
00:23Wall Street ends down, snaps weekly winning streak
The banks now expect China's GDP growth to be between 5.1% and 5.7% this year, down from an earlier range of 5.5% to 6.3%.
Data on Thursday showed China's economy stumbled in May with industrial output and retail sales growth missing forecasts, adding to expectations that Beijing will need to do more to shore up a shaky post-pandemic recovery.
The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal.
UBS economists on Friday cut their GDP forecast to 5.2% from 5.7% and said in a note that they expected more policy support to come.
China's central bank on Thursday cut the interest rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility, the first such easing in 10 months, paving the way for cuts in the benchmark loan prime rates (LPR) next week.
Major banks cut China 2023 GDP forecasts as recovery falters
ReutersJune 16, 20237:00 PM GMT+8Updated 9 days ago
Employees work on the trucks production line during an organised media tour to the Shaanxi Automobile Group factory in Xian, Shaanxi province, China May 17, 2023. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo
BEIJING, June 16 (Reuters) - Several major banks have cut their 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for China after May data showed a post-COVID recovery was faltering in the world's second-largest economy.
Nomura has cut its forecast for China's 2023 GDP growth to 5.1% from 5.5%, the Japanese bank said in a note on Friday, following similar moves by UBS (UBSG.S), Standard Chartered (STAN.L), Bank of America (BoA) (BAC.N) and JPMorgan (JPM.N).
00:23Wall Street ends down, snaps weekly winning streak
The banks now expect China's GDP growth to be between 5.1% and 5.7% this year, down from an earlier range of 5.5% to 6.3%.
Data on Thursday showed China's economy stumbled in May with industrial output and retail sales growth missing forecasts, adding to expectations that Beijing will need to do more to shore up a shaky post-pandemic recovery.
The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal.
UBS economists on Friday cut their GDP forecast to 5.2% from 5.7% and said in a note that they expected more policy support to come.
China's central bank on Thursday cut the interest rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility, the first such easing in 10 months, paving the way for cuts in the benchmark loan prime rates (LPR) next week.
China’s $23 Trillion Local Debt Mess Is About to Get Worse
What happened in cash-strapped Hegang points to a long economic slog for the rest of the country.By
Bloomberg News
22 May 2023 at 07:00 GMT+8
In 2021, a remote coal town in northeastern China was forced to undergo an unprecedented financial restructuring. Its struggles since are an ominous sign for President Xi Jinping as other heavily indebted municipalities look set to follow suit.
Hegang, a city with nearly a million people near the Russian border, had debt of more than double its fiscal income when it hit the headlines almost 18 months ago. It was the first time a city administration had taken official emergency steps since the State Council unveiled rules in 2016 on how local governments, from counties to provinces, should deal with debt risks.
Tiongland too obsessed with zero covid policy. They should reinstate visa free travel and do away with art tests. That's why their tourism income sucks now and RMB value is dropping
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