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SG in ménage à trois with US and China for next 30 years

mudhatter

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Loyal
For goodness sake, PRC don’t need Sinkiestan in any way anymore. Think about it.

They can speak better English than any ah beng on our streets, Xi Dada stamped out corruption as much as he could in the last decade or so.

Land, they have. People, they have. Friends, they have. What do they lack? :coffee::coffee::coffee:

Pretty much summed it up.

Moreover, they've got a lot more people and a lot more talent in all spheres of activities. As old fart Harry Lee had stated long before his death, stinkies are descendants of the coolies and peasants of tiongkok or cecapura, not the descendants of scholars, emperors, royalty, nobility, literatteur, generals or businessmen.
 

mudhatter

Alfrescian
Loyal
Another one of those chiiiiinaaaaaa speeeeeeeeeeeeds?

another 3 decades of chiiiiiiiiiiinaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa speeeeeeeeeeeed at work and ends up disastrously as weaker than Ang mohs yet again.
 

LITTLEREDDOT

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US losing its military edge in Asia, and China knows it​

America can no longer deter China without help from its allies.​

Ashley Townshend and James Crabtree
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The US Navy's Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Dewey refuelling at sea with the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson in 2018. PHOTO: REUTERS


JUN 17, 2022

(NYTIMES) - A Chinese fighter jet veered in front of an Australian military surveillance aircraft over international waters in the South China Sea last month and released metallic debris that was sucked into the Australian plane's engines.
No one was reported hurt in the encounter, which Australia's defence minister called "very dangerous", but it added to a string of recent incidents that demonstrate China's growing willingness to test the United States and its partners in Asia militarily.
China has systematically tracked US warships in the region, its air force has staged intensifying incursions into Taiwanese and Japanese airspace, and its coast guard routinely harasses Philippine, Malaysian and Indonesian vessels. In recent weeks, Chinese fighter pilots have repeatedly buzzed Canadian military aircraft on a United Nations-sanctioned operation - sometimes raising their middle fingers at the Canadians.
As China's armed forces grow in strength, sophistication and confidence, US-led military deterrence in the Indo-Pacific is losing its bite.
Take the United States' military presence in the region. It has about 55,000 military personnel in Japan and 28,000 in South Korea. Several thousand more are deployed across Australia, the Philippines, Thailand and Guam. This posture has barely changed since the 1950s. But plans to reinvigorate the US presence have been stymied by inadequate budgets, competing priorities and a lack of consensus in Washington on how to deal with China.
The Pentagon has increased investments in cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence, and cyber- and space-based systems to prepare for a possible high-tech conflict with China in the 2030s. But the balance of power is likely to shift decidedly in China's favour by the time they are deployed unless the United States brings new resources to the table soon.
President Joe Biden this year submitted the largest defence budget ever in dollar terms, but much of the increase will be swallowed up by skyrocketing inflation. Mr Biden, like former president Donald Trump, is thus falling short of a target of 3 per cent to 5 per cent real annual budget growth, a bipartisan goal set even before the Ukraine war and often cited as the minimum the Pentagon needs in today's era of great-power competition.

While the US military is globally dispersed, China can concentrate its forces on winning a future conflict in its own neighbourhood. It now has the capability.
China has the world's largest navy and Asia's biggest air force and an imposing arsenal of missiles designed to deter the United States from projecting military power into the Western Pacific in a crisis. China's third and most advanced aircraft carrier is nearing completion, and other new hardware is being developed or is already in service.
Beijing is also raising alarm with its readiness to project that strength.


While much attention is focused on its behaviour towards Taiwan, China is building and militarising artificial islands in the South China Sea. It also broke ground on an expanded naval port in Cambodia last week, which may one day provide its first military foothold in another Asian country. A security agreement with the Solomon Islands could lead to something similar, and Beijing is aggressively courting other Pacific nations.
America's military position in Asia, by contrast, has been hampered by decades of preoccupation with Middle East conflicts. The war in Ukraine has morphed into a long-term US$54 billion (S$75 billion) commitment and forced Mr Biden to delay and redraft his administration's National Defence Strategy and National Security Strategy - critical documents that lay out global priorities and resource needs - as officials grapple with how to manage China and Russia at the same time.
MORE ON THIS TOPIC
New rules on 'non-war' PLA operations a warning to those threatening Chinese security: Analysts
China launches its most advanced aircraft carrier amid rising tension with US
Mr Biden's team ended the lengthy and costly US involvement in Afghanistan, but that has not freed up many resources for the Indo-Pacific. Washington must not lose sight of the fact that China is a far greater security threat than Russia, now and in the long term.
US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin said "the Indo-Pacific is at the heart of American grand strategy" during a speech last week at the Shangri-La Dialogue defence summit in Singapore, but he offered little in the way of new resources or commitments.
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US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin said "the Indo-Pacific is at the heart of American grand strategy" during a speech last week at the Shangri-La Dialogue. ST PHOTO: GIN TAY
To turn things around, the US must prioritise the threat from China, reinforce its military strength in Asia and provide Australia, Japan and India more sophisticated military and technological capabilities to bolster a strategy of collective defence.
It should urgently expand the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, which would direct additional spending towards strengthening the US military presence west of Hawaii by distributing forces more widely through the region, improving logistics and air defences, and other measures. These are necessary to reduce exposure of US forces to China's long-range missiles and increase the locations from which they could operate in a crisis. But this initiative has suffered from insufficient funding and criticism that its top priorities were not being met.
The US could also strengthen its military posture in the region by increasing from five to six the number of attack submarines home-ported in Guam, expanding maritime operations in the Pacific and deploying more advanced fighters, warships, drones and long-range missiles to the region.
But all of that may still not be enough. The challenge posed by China is becoming so great that the United States can no longer maintain a balance of military power in Asia by itself.

Washington took a bold first step towards sharing more of the burden through the Aukus agreement announced last year, under which it will work with Britain to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and co-develop other advanced military technologies in the interim. But the submarines won't enter service until the late 2030s, and Aukus' other collaborative efforts will require difficult reforms to longstanding US restrictions on sharing sensitive national security technology.
Washington should support Australian and Japanese aims to build long-range missiles on home soil by sharing intellectual property, provide more US weaponry to India and beef up foreign military financing in the region, starting with a dedicated fund to boost Taiwan's deterrence capabilities.
America has long neglected its defence strategy in Asia, viewing China's challenge as important but not urgent. The scenes now playing out in Europe are a stark reminder of what can happen when deterrence fails.
  • Ashley Townshend is a senior fellow for Indo-Pacific security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. James Crabtree is executive director of the Asia office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
 

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Vivian Balakrishnan stresses need to avoid miscalculation, accidents, in meeting with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi​

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Hariz Baharudin
Assistant News Editor

Aug 4, 2022

PHNOM PENH - Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan has emphasised the need to avoid miscalculation and accidents, which could lead to an escalatory spiral and destabilise the region.
Dr Balakrishnan also hoped that the US and China will work out a modus vivendi and stressed the need for stable US-China relations, which are vital for peace and security.
He made these points in a meeting with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Thursday (Aug 4), Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) said in a statement.
"They exchanged views on the regional and international situation, including recent developments in the Taiwan Strait," the statement said.
"Singapore has a clear and consistent 'One China' policy and is opposed to Taiwan independence and any unilateral moves to change the status quo," it added.
Both ministers are in Phnom Penh for the 55th Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting (AMM) and related meetings.
A modus vivendi refers to an arrangement that lets parties facing disagreements coexist peacefully, either indefinitely or until a final settlement is reached.

The meeting came amid heightened US-China tensions, including China launching military drills in the Taiwan Strait, following the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan on Wednesday (Aug 3).
Asean ministers have also called for "maximum restraint" and urged the global community to avoid actions that could destabilise the region.
During their meeting, Dr Balakrishnan and Mr Wang reaffirmed the strong ties between Singapore and China, and discussed the importance of intensifying bilateral high-level exchanges, MFA said.
These include earlier visits to Singapore by State Councilor and National Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe in June, and by Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China Liu Jianchao last month.
Dr Balakrishnan and Mr Wang also looked forward to the full restoration of air connectivity, and the resumption of student, tourist, and business exchanges when conditions permit, MFA added.
Earlier on Thursday, Asean foreign ministers also met Mr Wang at the Asean-China Post-Ministerial Conference as well as at the Asean Plus Three Foreign Ministers' Meeting,which included their counterparts from Japan and South Korea.
The Asean ministers also met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the Asean-US Post-Ministerial Conference.
 

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Pelosi visit reaffirms US' strong partnership with S'pore​

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US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and PM Lee Hsien Loong at the Istana on Aug 1, 2022. PHOTO: MCI


AUG 2, 2022

SINGAPORE - US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Tuesday (Aug 2) her visit to Singapore has reaffirmed the United States' "strong partnership with an important ally and friend".
"In bilateral meetings with key government leaders, we focused on how our nations can continue working together on security and stability, economic growth and trade, and values-based governance," Mrs Pelosi said in a statement released by the US Embassy in Singapore.
Mrs Pelosi on Monday (Aug 1) met Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, President Halimah Yacob, Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, and Senior Ministers Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Teo Chee Hean.
Her statement said she discussed with PM Lee "our ongoing collaboration to uphold and strengthen a rules-based international order".
"There were also discussions on trade and investment" she added.


Mr Lee has already been to the United States twice this year, most recently for the Asean-US Special Summit with US President Joe Biden in May.
Mrs Pelosi said her meeting with Madam Halimah was "distinguished with special attention on the advancement of women in our society".

She took note of Madam Halimah's "trailblazing public service as Singapore's first woman president and first woman Speaker of the Parliament".
She added that their conversation "focused on the US-Singapore alliance, including in promoting security in the region, responding to the pandemic and combating the climate crisis".


She also thanked Madam Halimah for Singapore's hosting of American servicemen.
Her meeting with Mr Wong, concurrently the finance minister, centred on how the US and Singapore "can continue to work together to advance security, prosperity and opportunity - for families on both sides of the Pacific".


With Dr Balakrishnan and Mr Tharman, she said: "Our discussion focused on strategic investment in our nations' people to address inequity and advance economic growth".


"We also discussed efforts to advance partnerships with Singapore and other Asean partners to advance regional security, prosperity and governance." she said.
Mrs Pelosi said she discussed with Mr Teo Singapore's commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Mr Teo, in turn, gave her delegation "a clear report on Singapore's efforts to address the climate crisis as a country that is susceptible to rising sea level".


Mrs Pelosi also had meetings with leaders of the business community, where the focus was on public-private sector collaboration.
"We asked for their support for the LGBTQ community in Singapore, as more American businesses are establishing and adding offices in Singapore," she said.
 

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'A storm is gathering around us,' says Singapore's PM Lee amid US-China tensions​



Wong Casandra
Wong Casandra
·Senior Reporter
Mon, 8 August 2022




Composite image of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong standing in pink and US, China flags.

In his National Day Message 2022, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong spoke of worsening US-China relations 'with intractable issues, deep suspicions, and limited engagement between them. (PHOTOS: Ministry of Communications and Information, Reuters file photo)
SINGAPORE — Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Monday (8 August) cautioned that "a storm is gathering" around Singapore amidst geopolitical instability, even as the city-state barrels forward beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.
In his 10-minute long National Day Message 2022 broadcast, Lee spoke of worsening US-China relations "with intractable issues, deep suspicions, and limited engagement between them".
"Our road ahead will not be easy," he noted in his annual speech. "(The relationship between the US and China) is unlikely to improve anytime soon. Furthermore, miscalculations or mishaps can easily make things much worse."
 

mudhatter

Alfrescian
Loyal
stinkypura will only get f@rked up all its orifices if it dares to tangle with either of them, worse yet if it dares it with both
 

LITTLEREDDOT

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US-China ties: Kissinger may be humanity's last hope​

Both sides should allow him to work on stabilising their relationship with just three small steps to avoid any further deterioration in ties.​

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Kishore Mahbubani
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Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger could be flown to Beijing to work on US-China relations, says the writer. PHOTO: ST FILE

AUG 11, 2022,

At the age of 99, Dr Henry Kissinger finds himself in a paradoxical position. On the one hand, he is widely revered, especially in the West. On the other hand, he is ignored, especially by his own country. If he had not been ignored, we would not have had the current crises on Ukraine and Taiwan.
On Ukraine, Dr Kissinger proposed a win-win compromise formula in a 2014 Washington Post article in which both the West and Russia would have had to sacrifice something. Russia would have had to accept Ukraine as an independent country, free to join the European Union if it wished to do so. The West would have had to declare that Ukraine would never join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato). Hence, Russia would not be threatened by Nato forces and arms close to its heartland.
If Dr Kissinger's formula had been adopted, Ukraine would have avoided the current war. Thousands of Ukrainian lives would have been saved.
On Taiwan, Dr Kissinger, in an interview with Bloomberg on July 20 this year, said that the US should stop its "endless confrontations" with China.

In utter defiance of his wise advice, Mrs Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives who is the third most powerful person in the country, decided to make an official visit to Taiwan barely two weeks after the Kissinger interview, knowing full well that China would have no choice but to react forcefully to a deliberate provocation.
New York Times columnist Tom Friedman described her visit as "utterly reckless, dangerous and irresponsible".
Sadly, Mrs Pelosi, 82, did not visit Taiwan because she cared for its people. Indeed, she endangered rather than helped them with the visit. She went to Taiwan for selfish reasons.

Since she is about to lose her position as House Speaker when the Democrats (as is likely) lose their control of the House in the mid-term elections in November, she wanted a last "hurrah" of global publicity before leaving office.
Future historians will certainly accuse her of recklessness because she was prepared to start World War III just to get some personal publicity.
All Asians should unanimously condemn her for starting a fire in our neighbourhood without taking any responsibility for the dangerous consequences.


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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (left) met Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen during her trip to Taipei on Aug 3, 2022. PHOTO: AFP
Thanks to Mrs Pelosi, US-China relations have sunk to a new low. China has suspended climate talks as well as military-to-military dialogue with the US. The less the two superpowers talk to each other, the more dangerous the world becomes.
Indeed, there is a real possibility that this negative relationship between the two could spiral out of control, with a military accident in either the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait triggering a direct war between them. The chances of this happening are no longer zero.
So what can we do to stop this dangerous downward spiral in US-China relations?
Fortunately, there is a simple solution that both sides can agree on without losing face. This solution rests on one foundation: that Dr Kissinger is one of the few Americans who are equally revered in both Beijing and Washington.
US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could agree that Dr Kissinger could be flown to Beijing to work on US-China relations. Notwithstanding his age, the former US secretary of state is still active, giving press interviews and travelling.

Since relations are so bad, he should not have an ambitious agenda. His goal should not be to improve US-China relations. Instead, his goal should be to stabilise the US-China relationship to avoid any further deterioration.
There are three small steps that the two sides could agree on.

1st step: No nuclear war​

The first step is for both sides to declare that neither will start a nuclear war. Hence, even if an American plane is shot down accidentally in the South China Sea or if a Chinese destroyer is accidentally sunk in the East China Sea, both sides would agree to not escalate this incident into a nuclear war. It is clear that the leaders on both sides understand the danger of a nuclear war. Estimates by the United States nuclear warfighting plan predicted as many as 335 million fatalities globally within 72 hours if a nuclear war had broken out in the 1960s. Today, that number would be much higher.
In theory, both sides agree that "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought". This sentence was put in a statement issued by the permanent members of the UN Security Council (including China and the US) in a joint statement in January this year.
In practice, both the US and China have contingency plans for fighting a nuclear war. This is why Dr Kissinger should, as a first step, secure an agreement that a nuclear war will never be fought.

2nd step: Remove trade tariffs​

The second step is for both sides to immediately remove all the trade tariffs imposed on each other during the Trump administration. In private, many serious Biden administration officials admit that Mr Trump's trade tariffs have not hurt China. Indeed, China's trade surplus with the US has gone up after these Trump tariffs were imposed, from US$342 billion (S$471 billion) in 2019 to US$353 billion in 2021.
American workers and consumers have had to pay higher prices for consumer products because of these tariffs. This was why Mr Biden, while on the campaign trail in 2019, said that "President Trump may think he's being tough on China. All that he's delivered as a consequence of that is American farmers, manufacturers and consumers losing and paying more".
US Trade Representative Katherine Tai is blocking the lifting of these tariffs because she is afraid of a backlash from American trade unions. The Biden administration can send some former senior Democratic figures, like Mr Barack Obama and Mr Larry Summers, to explain to these trade unions an undeniable truth: American workers will be better off if these Trump tariffs are lifted.
If China agrees to this mutual lifting of tariffs, Americans will benefit. And the whole world would cheer if Dr Kissinger can accomplish this as global economic growth would also shoot up. A small positive step like this could change the chemistry of US-China relations.

3rd step: Resume climate talks​

The third step is for both sides to agree to a resumption of climate talks. Climate change is a common challenge that both China and the US face. Yet, since China cut off climate talks as a response to the reckless Pelosi visit, the US could make a painless concession to persuade Beijing to return to the table.
For some strange (indeed, mysterious) reasons, the US continued space cooperation with Russia (even after the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014) and refused to allow similar cooperation with China, even during the Obama presidency. We all know how massive the universe is. It is silly for earthlings to allow small disputes on planet earth to block space cooperation.
A package deal where China and the US agree to both climate and space cooperation (and knowledge in these areas reinforce each other) would indicate that a floor has been established beneath which the US-China relationship would never go under.
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US climate envoy John Kerry (left) in discussion with China's special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua during a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, on May 24, 2022. PHOTO: AFP
None of these three steps would imply an end to the massive US-China geopolitical contest which will continue for the deep structural reasons that I have documented in detail in my book, Has China Won? However, these three steps would ensure that even as their geopolitical contest accelerates, there would be a clear limit beneath which both superpowers would never fall.
The whole world will breathe a huge sigh of relief when such a floor is established for the US-China relationship. The world will also send Dr Kissinger a big thank you note if he accomplishes all this on a visit to Beijing. It would show that he is revered and heeded, not revered and ignored.
  • Kishore Mahbubani, a veteran diplomat, is a distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore and the author of several books, including The Asian 21st Century, an Open Access book which has been downloaded 1.93 million times.
 

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Forum: Key events of the past decade offer perspective on US-China ties​


AUG 17, 2022

I wish to provide an alternative view to the article by Professor Kishore Mahbubani (US-China ties: Kissinger may be humanity's last hope, Aug 11).
Prof Mahbubani quoted former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger as stating that the United States should stop its "endless confrontations" with China. He also implied that the visit to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may have brought us to the brink of World War III.
To validate these statements, we need to review some of the key events of the past decade.
China's growth during the past 40 years would not have been possible without Western support and the World Trade Organisation rules initiated in the early 1990s to benefit less developed countries.
Having established itself as the No. 2 economy, China attempted to capitalise on Western differences, weaknesses of the democratic system, the perceived decline of the US and related naivety - including the idealist view that China could be made more democratic - to continue to grow and challenge the international system, rather than working from within to improve the system.
Over the past 10 years, China, led by an ambitious President Xi Jinping, adopted aggressive military and diplomacy policies which include "wolf warrior" tactics, bullying of weaker neighbours and information operations in other countries to sway opinions.
Many people in Asia and around the world do not trust China. A survey by the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute published in February found that 58 per cent of South-east Asians did not have confidence in China to do the right thing in the wider interests of the global community. The survey found that 53 per cent had confidence in the US to do the right thing.

And a Pew Research Centre survey released in June found that a median of 68 per cent across 19 countries had an unfavourable view of China, whereas a majority in most countries had a favourable view of the US.
On Mrs Pelosi's recent visit to Taiwan, I would suggest that China has overreacted.
This is not the first time a House speaker had visited the island. However, China had to react in this way, given that it is facing many internal challenges and Mr Xi needs to galvanise nationalist sentiments to gain support for his re-election to a third term as leader of the party.
We must not ignore China's behaviour. At this point, we must make it clear that while it may be acceptable to many of us for China to be the No. 1 economy or military power, the issue is the approach it has taken to achieve this aim.
Its recent behaviour and actions do not give assurance that it will be a benign power, but rather, that it may continue to bully its neighbours and selectively bulldoze through international norms and rules to achieve its objectives.

Vijayakumar P.T.
 

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George Yeo on the redwood, the giant bush and the banyan tree​

Former politician George Yeo talks to Opinion Editor Grace Ho about US-China, India, the Singaporean identity and Chinese schools.​

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Grace Ho
Opinion Editor
SPH Brightcove Video

Former politician George Yeo shares about his new book, his thoughts on the Singapore identity, the state of US-China relations and confirms he is not running for president in 2023.

AUG 24, 2022

George Yeo is fond of tree analogies.
In a 1991 speech on Singapore, he likened the state to a banyan tree - a large evergreen tree native to Asia - and spoke of the need to prune it so that civic participation could grow under its canopy.
Now, in his new book George Yeo: Musings, which is framed as a series of conversations with veteran media practitioner Woon Tai Ho, the former foreign minister compares China to a redwood tree and India, a giant bush.
I thought this might be a tad simplistic. But he explains in the book that the redwood - one of the largest and tallest trees in the world that can live for thousands of years - looks magnificent from a distance but will stop growing one day. On the other hand, the giant bush is everywhere and hard to make sense of, and continues to grow even if a section is burned or diseased.
Incidentally, redwoods can be found in both the United States and China, which are now at loggerheads. US lawmakers visited Taiwan barely two weeks after a tour of the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, sparking off even more military exercises by China around Taiwan.
Such US congressional delegation visits are actually not new. But coming so soon after the Pelosi trip, the visit naturally assumed greater significance, said Mr Yeo during an hour-long interview on Monday (Aug 22) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, where he is a visiting scholar and the founding patron of its Asia Competitiveness Institute.
He's not certain that the escalation in tensions was entirely deliberate on the US' part, though.

"The US, there are some people who just want to irritate China, want to bring down China's prestige in the world if they can. There are others who may be baiting China to do something silly, then they can respond vigorously. I think in the US, there are a number of players. On the Chinese side, they are quite unified - it's the traditional centralised statecraft of China," he said.
"But the US has always had a division of powers. And sometimes this leads to a certain incoherence in its actions, which China has got to take into account when it does its calculation."
Do both sides risk - to borrow a word used by Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong - "sleepwalking" into a conflict through near-misses and miscalculations?


Yes, if the US supports Taiwan's independence, which China will use all means possible to prevent. But on balance, the theatre of operations favours China, he said.
"For China, (Taiwan is) one, two hundred miles away. For the US, it's thousands of miles away. So it is much harder for the US to sustain a conflict over Taiwan without the use of nuclear weapons."
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Former politician George Yeo's new book takes the reader on a winding journey across faith, community, identity, philosophy and world history. ST PHOTO: KEVIN LIM

China's ambitions​

He asserts that the US will become less anxious when it realises that China is not expansionist.
China, he writes, protects itself by building walls, and these walls run deep in the Chinese psyche - from the Great Wall of China dating back as far as the 7th century BC, to its zero-Covid-19 policy today.
I think this is too sanguine a view of China's strategic ambitions, and cite as examples the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China's actions and rhetoric on the South China Sea. But he disagrees.
He sees the BRI as a natural outcome of the growth of China's economy and its "spillage" beyond China, as was the case for several Chinese dynasties throughout history. The BRI can be beneficial provided it does not entirely converge on China, but leads to a network of transport and communication lines across Eurasia.
If the Japanese, Europeans and Americans feel China has an unfair advantage and wish to add to the network, they should do so and other countries should welcome it, he said. What is uncomfortable is when the US and Europe tell these countries to take sides: "You choose China or you choose me."

What about the debt problems some countries face when they are unable to make good on their loans? After investing heavily in infrastructure, Sri Lanka, for example, now owes Beijing US$6.5 billion (S$9.1 billion).
He finds the notion implausible that China "somehow wants to lose money, and therefore foreclose their loans and commandeer their assets".
"These are Chinese state-owned enterprises, they have their own key performance indicators. They want to make money, they don't want to lose money," he said.
"Sometimes in their enthusiasm they may make wrong choices, they may be involved in quick decisions, sometimes corrupt on the side - and then they lose money. I believe they regret it."

India​

On India, Mr Yeo said governments have to "work with the nature of India", notwithstanding its political complexity.
Mr Yeo was closely involved in the much-debated India-Singapore Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (Ceca) and the Nalanda University project.
In 2016 he resigned as chancellor of Nalanda University, a global project to revive an ancient seat of learning, saying that he had been kept out of the loop on an important decision to reconstitute the governing board that makes key decisions for the university.
As for Ceca, it has come under fire from Singaporeans who think it gives Indian job seekers a free pass here, something both Mr Yeo and the Government strenuously deny.
Mr Yeo noted: "If you think that (India and China) should adjust to you, you'll be sorely disappointed because these are big countries. They've got set natures, set habits.
"Singapore in the end is a price-taker, and the more we understand our neighbourhood, the better will we be able to make the little adjustments which make relationships easier to forge."

Identity and a Singaporean core​

George Yeo: Musings takes the reader on a winding journey across faith, community, identity, philosophy and world history.
It is also about suffering. Mr Yeo describes his eldest brother Joseph's schizophrenia, resulting in several stays at the old Woodbridge Hospital and which caused great stress to the family.
Then there's his youngest son Frederick, whose battle with leukaemia - his chance of survival was at one point less than 10 per cent - brought all other plans for the family to a "screeching halt". Frederick later recovered following a bone marrow transplant.
When Joseph died in 2008, Mr Yeo - a Catholic who attended mass even amid tightly-scheduled official trips - wrestled with the meaning of his brother's life. He sought comfort in Pope Benedict XVI's words: "Each of us is a thought of God. Each of us is willed. Each of us is loved. Each of us is necessary."
Suffering, he writes in a chapter on his formative years, is part of the human condition.
But while he refers to his own experiences, that observation could also easily apply to his worldview: "Philosophically, I am inclined to the view that it is suffering - pathos - which forges the identity of individuals and of groups."
On the subject of identity, I found this quote from the book interesting: "If we are insecure about our own identity, then we become uncomfortable with the strength of other people's identity."
It intrigued me because Singaporeans should be confident in themselves and proud of their country. But some see themselves as what they're not, rather than who they are: not pro-China, not pro-US, not rich, not happy, and so on.
Which begs the question: More than half a century after independence, are we any better at understanding ourselves as a people?
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More than half a century after independence, are we any better at understanding ourselves as a people? ST PHOTO: CHONG JUN LIANG
"If Singapore is defined by what we can't be, then it's not a very attractive Singapore," said Mr Yeo.
Unity, he added, is created not by how much each person has to retreat in order to create a common space - but by how each, by growing his heart and enlarging his mind, can create a greater overlap. One is a positive-sum game, while the other is a zero-sum game.
"The only way we can confront common challenges is if we have higher values... which enable us to interconnect, to find higher purpose, and to cohere. That is what Singapore should be - something larger than what we were before."

Chinese schools​

He also argues that the level at which Special Assistance Plan (SAP) schools have maintained Chinese education is not enough to meet Singapore's future needs.
The closure in 1980 of Nanyang University or Nantah, and its subsequent merger into the National University of Singapore, marked the end of the highest-level institution here which used Chinese as its main medium of instruction.
His proposed solution makes my head spin: turn Ngee Ann Polytechnic into a "SAP" poly, and Nanyang Technological University into a "SAP" university.
Can it even work, given that English is Singaporeans' common language? Wouldn't such schools sharpen divisions in society along language and ethnic lines?
His chief concern, he explained, is that Singapore does not have successors to the Nantah generation across all its institutions, including the Chinese media.

Where there is over-dependence on foreigners to make up for a shortfall of local Chinese writers, distortions may arise due to the lack of an indigenous Singapore perspective. There is also the worry that these institutions may be captured by China, he said.
"You can't just depend on foreign talent...there's a danger that we lose our core. I don't see that core being replicated because the current SAP schools that we have, which end at Hwa Chong (Institution), don't provide a sufficient peak."
In the same vein, he suggests having an Islamic college in Singapore to reduce over-reliance on sending madrasah students overseas for their further studies, where they are exposed to different kinds of religious teaching depending on the country or institution.
"We should think about giving them that formative training in Singapore. Then they become Singaporean Islamic religious leaders. In a crisis, they will know how to shape the community because we are multi-ethnic, we are multi-religious," he said.
"If we don't (and) something happens and they’re from different traditions, we may lose coherence."
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George Yeo: Musings is sold at major bookstores including Kinokuniya and Popular. PHOTO: WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBLISHING.

Not running for President​

One question which has dogged him is whether he will run for President next year. His answer is "no".
Friends have asked him to reconsider, he said, and he has told them that this is his firm position.
"I was a bit concerned that people might think that I wrote the books for the purpose of preparing the ground for my campaign. So when (Lianhe) Zaobao interviewed me...I said, 'No, please, let’s give a clear definitive answer that I do not wish to run for the presidency'.
"Again, I raised the concern because it’s a very important institutional position and it requires great discipline. You have powers, but you also sometimes have to act under advice, and you cannot lightly speculate on your views about things. There has to be a certain discipline of thought and action.
"Then I looked at myself: do I fit this role? All of us in 2011 remember when I lost the elections, I was not happy, even when I considered it. I asked myself: 'Am I happy?...No, I’m not happy with the prospect. I feel some pressure.'
"You want to say no without explanation, people will say, having presumptions, you know, being arrogant. If I give too long an explanation, people will say, 'Well, maybe you’re not really serious about what you say'."

Underneath the banyan tree​

As the meeting draws to a close, I return to his analogy of a banyan tree. Does he think that civic discourse has flourished in the time since he spoke of it in 1991?
Absolutely - Singapore is much more variegated now, and a garden full of flowers has sprung up beneath the tree, he said. But nothing is static, and the relationship between the tree and the vegetation underneath it is a symbiotic one.
"Singapore can't succeed without clear, decisive leadership," he said.
"The world doesn't wait for us. We have to adjust to the world, which means that if there are dangers we must move quickly, and if there are opportunities, strike quickly."


This requires a unity of purpose and decisiveness of action, he added - one which results from continuing conversation and most importantly, a relationship of trust.
On how the next generation of leaders ought to manage this garden, he made two points.
First, Singaporeans must be clear about how the world is changing. For the first time in a long time, the West and the US feel that they are no longer necessarily the top dog, and Asia and China are prepared to look at them "at eye level" as equals.
There will be a protracted struggle between the US and China, one which he calls an "intertidal period" in which one tide is resisting the other, with many countries caught up in the turbulence. "(The West) will not be used to it, but they will have to get to used to it.
"We have to be careful to position ourselves early in the right places, because if we find out too late the course of the current, we don't have time to get into the right position and will be sucked down."
To stay above the waves, Singaporeans must have a good understanding of history and culture. Even as they ebb and flow like the tide in the short run, these tend to be enduring and do not change easily, and can provide clues as to what the future may hold.
MORE ON THIS TOPIC
S'pore should prepare for up to 30 years of US-China rivalry: George Yeo
A Singaporean may not be Chinese, Malay or Indian: Panellist
Second, Singaporeans must be united in order to respond early and effectively to emerging challenges. This internal dimension, he said, requires a continual effort to keep Singaporeans - who are ethnically and religiously diverse - together.
Today, the Chinese redwood is growing more slowly amid challenging economic conditions and a strict Covid-19 policy. The banyan tree, even as it occasionally undergoes pruning, extends a protective shade over its undergrowth which continues to yield a rich variety of flora and fauna.
Mr Yeo's collected musings do not end here; his second and third books are already in the works. Will new flowers spring forth from them? Only time will tell, but the first book is already a garden unto itself.
  • George Yeo: Musings is sold at all major bookstores including Books Kinokuniya and Popular, and retails at $74 (hardcover) and $37 (paperback). More information about the book can be found here.
 

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Power Play​

The China bogeyman - a dangerous game that politicians play​

The China challenge is real but Western politicians inflating the threat risk fostering a self-fulfilling and destructive dynamic​

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Danson Cheong
China Correspondent In Beijing
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Beijing's war games this month around Taiwan will only add to concerns over China. PHOTO: REUTERS


AUG 15, 2022, 5:00 AM SGT

In the race to be Britain's next prime minister, being tough on China seems like a prerequisite.
Britain's former finance minister Rishi Sunak has called China the biggest threat to the United Kingdom, and pledged to close all 30 Confucius Institutes in the country to stem its influence. His rival, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, already known for her strident views on Beijing, has said that Western nations should do more to boost Taiwan's ability to defend itself.
In recent weeks, both politicians, who are vying for the leadership of Britain's Conservative Party, have been keen to show they are no minnows when it comes to pushing back on China.
They are not the only ones. The use of the China threat as a means of rallying support has been employed by various politicians in countries ranging from the United States to Australia to South Korea.
A common refrain from American politicians is that China as a rising power is intent on challenging and upending the liberal democratic values they champion - some, including former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, have gone as far as calling China an "existential threat".
It is a reflection of growing anxieties in the West over a more muscular China under President Xi Jinping.
Under Mr Xi, diplomats have become "wolf warriors", the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has militarised the South China Sea to assert China's disputed claims, and Beijing has used its growing economic power to punish countries over political disagreements.

Beijing's war games this month around Taiwan will only add to concerns over China.
Experts warn that through their actions, China and the US are increasingly edging towards confrontation. This dangerous trajectory is not helped by Western politicians increasingly seeing things through the prism of China as a global bogeyman.

Rise of China​

The idea of China as a threat dates back to the 1990s when its rapid economic growth raised concerns in the US that it would be overtaken by China.


At the time, the worries were "tempered by the widespread idea that with economic development, China would become more peaceful, cooperative, and supportive of the liberal norms and institutions supported by the USA and other countries", said East-West Center senior fellow Denny Roy.
But China's growing economic and military strength and its actions in recent years have caused these concerns to rise to the surface again.
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ST ILLUSTRATION: CHNG CHOON HIONG
"China is exhibiting under Xi Jinping a resurgence of authoritarianism at home and a more confrontational and aggressive approach to the strategic disputes China is involved in. This seemingly disproves the optimistic hope that greater wealth would mellow the Chinese government," said Dr Roy.
Like its predecessor, the Biden administration has been focused on dealing with the threat China poses, calling it the "most serious long-term challenge to the international order".
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in May that "China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it".
Amid bitter political divisions in the US, the China threat has helped pass legislation such as the US$52 billion (S$71 billion) Chips and Science Act with rare bipartisan support.
Passed this month, the new law has competition with China in mind, and aims to give American semiconductor manufacturing a boost.
Countering China is also a rallying point for the US and its allies. Washington has rejuvenated partnerships such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the Quad, and forged new ones like the Aukus security pact, with Australia and the United Kingdom.

The China threat theory​

Chinese scholars see in these moves a resurgence of what they call the "China threat theory", which assumes that China's rise will not be peaceful and that it seeks to subvert the US-led world order.
China, they say, has been made a convenient scapegoat for America's problems.
Chinese academic Zheng Yongnian of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) said in an interview in June that the "logic of American hegemony" meant that the US needed to create enemies to sustain itself.
"During the Trump period, the US continually withdrew from international institutions and reduced its funding to allies," he said. "After (Joe) Biden took office, he wanted to revive these alliances, but the only starting point for him to do so is to create a 'bogeyman-like' common enemy, a shared menace, so other countries will follow his lead."
As for Western accusations that China is behaving like a bully throwing its weight around, Chinese scholars, such as Dr Wang Huiyao, say Beijing's actions are commensurate with its power and meant to defend its interests, whether it is slapping Australia with trade tariffs or conducting military drills around Taiwan.

"China certainly no longer 'hides its strength and bides its time'," said Dr Wang, referring to the maxim by which Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping had led China.
"Western countries are used to a China that keeps a low profile. They say: 'China used to be quiet, why is it so noisy now? Why does it always counter our criticisms?' It's going to take some time for them to get used to this," said Dr Wang, president of Chinese think-tank Centre for China and Globalisation.
Putting matters into perspective, he adds that China has benefited from the current global order and is not about to tear it down. What it wants is to be treated as an "equal partner", he explains.
Chinese officials have also often stressed that China's development is peaceful, and that it does not seek hegemony or to replace US leadership. But the problem with these Chinese assurances - which underlie many Western accusations of the China threat - is the disparity between those statements and Beijing's actions. For instance, in the South China Sea, Beijing's militarisation of islands shows it has used the PLA to bully smaller claimant states.

Security dilemma​

The upshot of these duelling perspectives is that mutual suspicion and antagonism tend to drive a dangerous cycle of action and reaction, pushing both countries towards open conflict.
While China is far more powerful than it was a decade ago and not shy about its strengths, the US is not helping things with its tendency to inflate the threat posed by China's military capabilities, argues Dr Michael Swaine, a security studies expert at the Quincy Institute.
In a paper published in June, he pointed out that contrary to the Pentagon's claims that Beijing presents a "pacing challenge" for the US military, the PLA "still displays significant deficiencies in weaponry, training and education, operations, and experience, some of them deeply rooted and difficult to correct".
Framing the challenge that Beijing poses in "alarmist, worse-case ways" is unhelpful, he said. "China becomes 10 feet tall, undeterred from wanting to destroy the United States except by a massive US counterforce."
Such an approach also closes off opportunities for mutual accommodation or moderation, and cooperation on other pressing issues including climate change becomes secondary.

More worryingly, it creates a situation where disputes over Taiwan or issues in the South China Sea become "fundamental zero-sum strategic struggles requiring ever more forceful pushback", Dr Swaine said.
The recent visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan shows this plainly.
Beijing made forceful warnings in the lead-up to Mrs Pelosi's trip, but this effectively made it impossible for Mrs Pelosi to back down or risk being seen as capitulating to Chinese demands.
Mrs Pelosi, the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan in 25 years, framed her visit as an effort to stand up to China and to reaffirm Washington's support of the self-ruled island.
But it did not go down well on the mainland, which saw the trip as a severe provocation, and a further sign of the hollowing-out of the US' "one China" policy.
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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (centre) waves as she arrives at the Parliament in Taipei on Aug 3, 2022. PHOTO: AFP

In response, Beijing conducted military exercises of an unprecedented scale and intensity that experts say were meant to simulate an invasion of Taiwan. Beijing also took retaliatory measures that included suspending talks with the US on the crucial issue of climate change. It also cancelled military talks with Washington - a dangerous move when geopolitical tensions are running high, and at a time when both militaries should be communicating more, not less.
To many countries, Beijing's reaction makes it look more threatening and makes the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan "closer and more real", said Dr Roy.
If, as some experts have noted, the sort of vigorous response to Mrs Pelosi's visit has become a new norm for China in response to what it sees as US provocation, the risk is that Beijing will have to take ever more escalatory actions when the next crisis hits.
What the world faces is a dangerous dynamic in which both sides assume the worst of each other and inflation of threats can become self-fulfilling realities. The great risk is that in such an environment, stray incidents can easily spin out of control.
Given the fraught state of US-China relations, crisis management is more important than ever and yet more difficult than ever. To avoid getting to that point of no return, cool heads and restraint are needed, not chest-thumping nationalism or demonising rhetoric for narrow political gains.
 

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External parties trying to influence Singapore, people here should guard themselves: Vivian Balakrishnan​

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Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan speaking to ST assistant video editor Lynlee Foo during an interview on Aug 26, 2022. ST PHOTO: KEVIN LIM
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Hariz Baharudin
Assistant News Editor

PUBLISHED

Aug 26, 2022

SINGAPORE - External parties are trying to influence Singapore to suit their own agendas, and its people should be on guard against such attempts, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said on Friday (Aug 26).
The minister called on Singaporeans to avoid being gullible and turn to credible sources of information, so as to immunise themselves from being misled by others.
In a video interview with The Straits Times on Friday following the National Day Rally, Dr Balakrishnan was asked by ST assistant video editor Lynlee Foo if there really were people looking to sway the minds of Singaporeans for ulterior motives.
"The answer to the question very clearly is: Yes. Precisely because we are small, but credible and relevant and independent, what Singaporeans think and say, and what the Government expresses on behalf of Singaporeans, do matter," he said.
In his National Day Rally speech, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Singaporeans should be vigilant about messages that are shared on social media and actively guard against hostile foreign influence, regardless of where they originate from. He also warned that while information shared on social media and messaging platforms may be perceived as true and credible, some of these messages have an ulterior aim of persuading Singaporeans to take sides, or to erode their trust in the Government.
Dr Balakrishnan said Singaporeans are exposed to a wide variety of messages in the "whole tsunami" of social media and private messaging. A significant number of these messages originate from outside of Singapore, and their intentions might not be in the long-term interests of the Republic, but instead, to further their own objectives.
"So it requires a certain scepticism, a certain openness to facts, but not being gullible," he said.

PM Lee had in his speech cited how there were messages floating around in Singapore in Chinese and English related to the Ukraine war that tried to stir up strong anti-American sentiments. There were also others that aimed to discredit Russia and China, and sought to persuade people to side with the West.
There is a need for Singaporeans to check the information they receive with credible sources of information like the mainstream media, said Dr Balakrishnan. He also underscored how important it was that Singapore has a population that is well informed and able to think critically.
In response to a question on social media and how dangerous it can be in relation to hostile foreign influence, Dr Balakrishnan gave two reasons for why the misuse of these platforms presents a clear and current threat.
First, social media platforms are optimised for revenue maximisation and not for the propagation of facts or reasonable, rational discourse.
"What has wings on social media, and you just go by the algorithms, anything that incites, anything that makes people angry, anything that is scandalous or raises emotional temperatures, those are the messages that thrive...
"By its very nature, social media is optimised sometimes for the more base nature of humanity and it's related to profit maximisation," he said.

Second, it has been made clear that in the last few years, state and non-state actors have also latched on to social media to push their views with the aim of dividing and eroding trust and cohesion within the target society.
As a multilingual, multiracial and open society, Singapore is all the more exposed to the dangers of hostile information campaigns, warned Dr Balakrishnan.
But this does not mean that the nation and its people are powerless against this threat, the minister added.
"I still believe that Singaporeans are also sensible, pragmatic people, we are not just going to swallow everything hook, line and sinker," he said.
 

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Tech firms should tell US and China to 'press pause button' on rivalry: S'pore diplomat​

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The US is already trying to decouple - or separate - some areas of the two countries' economies. PHOTO: REUTERS
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Dominic Low


AUG 26, 2022

SINGAPORE - Tech firms should tell the United States and China to "press the pause button" on their rivalry and work together on global issues such as climate change instead, said Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani.
"What you should do is… speak up and explain that this geopolitical contest is neither benefiting the US nor China, and is certainly harming the rest of the world at a time when we need to focus on more important common challenges," he told attendees at the annual Tech3 Forum on Friday (Aug 26).
Professor Mahbubani, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore, said tensions between the US and China will continue to worsen in the coming years.
He said the rivalry - which includes an ongoing trade war and the US' accusations of corporate espionage by Chinese tech firm Huawei - was one about power and not ideology between the two world powers.
Prof Mahbubani also said South-east Asia will be the most affected region in the rivalry, adding that it has benefited economically from trade and investments from both countries.
"Even though… the 10 Asean countries have made it very clear that they don't want to take sides in this contest, in one way or another, they will be called upon to choose," he added.
Prof Mahbubani said the technology industry will also be at the forefront of the geopolitical contest, and warned that the US might deny China access to its advanced technology.

He noted that the US is already trying to decouple - or separate - some areas of the two countries' economies.
Businesses would then face difficulties in their daily operations, such as a possible ban by the US in exporting products with Chinese-made components, he said.
The threat of decoupled technology ecosystems, in which companies and countries may have to choose between or operate on two separate systems, was mentioned by Minister for Communications and Information Josephine Teo in her speech at Friday's event.


To better protect Singapore's digital future, the Republic has focused on building its 5G digital infrastructure to enhance digital connectivity and strengthen its economic competitiveness.
"Today, our telcos have achieved at least 50 per cent outdoor coverage for 5G standalone services," she said.
Singapore has also been actively forming partnerships regionally and globally to facilitate data innovation, said Mrs Teo, adding that the collaborations will enable the establishment of norms that support cross-border data flows.
"Regrettably, businesses today face challenges complying with many different data regimes," said the minister.

Some countries have introduced highly restrictive rules, she said, referencing a report by The Straits Times on Wednesday that examined in detail how restricting free data flow can have negative economic and social impact on citizens.
Other efforts by Singapore which Mrs Teo cited include working with neighbouring countries to apply cyber norms to the region and entering into agreements with other states to foster common standards for digital trade.
Friday's event, which was organised by the Singapore Computer Society (SCS) and the Infocomm Media Development Authority, included a panel discussion on the challenges faced by professionals and businesses in the current economic climate.
Panellists include Prof Mahbubani and Economic Development Board managing director Jacqueline Poh.
On Friday, SCS partnered the National Library Board to organise programmes and events on technology topics, such as monthly talks at libraries. Both organisations inked a memorandum of understanding at the event.
Ten organisations were also recognised by SCS for their commitment in encouraging employees to pick up training in artificial intelligence ethics and governance.
They include the Cyber Security Agency of Singapore, Nanyang Polytechnic and UOB.
 

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Singapore's battle against disinformation and foreign influence bids​

The topic of foreign attempts to influence Singaporeans' views was raised by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his National Day Rally speech last Sunday. Insight looks at the challenge and efforts to counter it.​

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In his National Day Rally speech, PM Lee Hsien Loong urged Singaporeans to be sceptical of what they read on social media. ST PHOTO: KELVIN CHNG
Lim Min Zhang and Hariz Baharudin

Aug 28, 2022

SINGAPORE - When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, social media and messaging platforms here were abuzz with reactions to the attack.
Messages and video clips made the rounds after Singapore announced it would impose sanctions on Russia, with Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan saying in Parliament the invasion was an existential issue for the Republic as it violated international norms.
Among these clips and messages that made their way to people's phones were pro-Russian messages that featured Americans.
One clip - flagged by WhatsApp as being "forwarded many times" - showed American political scientist John Mearsheimer saying it was the Western pursuit of Nato expansion in Ukraine that led to the war. He said: "Washington played the central role in leading Ukraine down the path of destruction. History will judge the US and its allies with abundant harshness for its remarkably foolish policy on Ukraine."
Another featured former US senator Richard Black saying how Russia has been "incredibly reserved" about not bombing buildings in the capital of Kyiv and other critical infrastructure in the hope that peace could be achieved.
One message spread on Facebook put it more pithily: "America lit the fire; Russia started the fire; Ukraine caught fire; India looking at the fire; China putting down the fire; Taiwan is playing with fire; Singapore gets itself on fire."
The issue of foreign disinformation was raised by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his National Day Rally speech on Aug 21, as he highlighted geopolitical challenges from heightened divisions between the US and China to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

He urged Singaporeans to be sceptical of what they read on social media, especially messages that may carry narratives that are not aligned with Singapore's national interests. For instance, he said, some messages being spread about the Ukraine war may be attempting to stir up strong anti-American sentiments, while others aim to discredit Russia and China.
PM Lee noted that while most Singaporeans understood the Government's position on the war, some have questioned the need for Singapore to offend Russia, side with the US, and stick out its neck.

A more fractured world​

Observers said that while the issue of foreign influence is not new, the increasingly fractured geopolitical landscape means there is more heated competition to sway Singaporeans to take sides.


The Ukraine war is not the only major global event this year that led to a deluge of such online posts. When United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a closely-watched trip to Taiwan this month - a move strongly opposed by China - posts supporting China's official position were put up.
Shortly after Mrs Pelosi's trip, a Singapore-based news outlet, which has nearly 300,000 followers on Facebook, posted a 2011 video of founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew speaking at an entrepreneurs' convention.
In the clip, Mr Lee explained why he believed that the US would not intervene should a war break out between Taiwan and China, and that reunification was inevitable, although this would take time.
The clip attracted more than 650 comments from Singapore and overseas, and about 230,000 views.
The hashtag #pelosiiscrazy trended on TikTok and Twitter, with videos showing Chinese government officials and academics voicing their disapproval of her action, and war games conducted by the People's Liberation Army.

Dr Shashi Jayakumar of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) said narratives on Chinese social media could find their way to Singapore, across different platforms and even translated to other languages.
"What originates on WeChat need not necessarily stay there," he said, referring to the messaging platform widely used by the Chinese.
While some of the narratives being purveyed are pro-Russia, they could also be indirectly read as pro-China narratives, said Dr Jayakumar, who is head of the Centre of Excellence for National Security.
Overarching themes that mislead to some extent suggest Nato forced the war on Russian President Vladimir Putin through a reckless expansion, and that he was left in an untenable position, with no choice but to defend his country.
Of particular concern is how these narratives, when taken together, could over time deepen anti-West antipathy here and in the region, and lead to misunderstandings when it comes to the principled position the Singapore Government has taken on this issue.
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The war in Ukraine has led to a deluge of online messages promoting conflicting narratives about the invasion and its causes, including in Singapore. PHOTO: AFP
MORE ON THIS TOPIC
Debate rages online over S'pore's stance against Russia's invasion of Ukraine

From Pofma to Fica​

Recognising the potential scale of the threat of hostile information campaigns that are coordinated and often difficult to attribute, and with Singapore's sovereignty at stake, the Government has ramped up efforts against such campaigns over the last few years.
These include legislative measures such as the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (Pofma), passed in 2019, the Foreign Interference (Countermeasures) Act, or Fica, passed in October last year, as well as an ongoing campaign by the National Library Board to build media literacy.
Asked why foreign actors seek to influence views here, Ambassador Ong Keng Yong, executive deputy chairman of RSIS, said it is related to how Singapore's policymakers view public opinion as a possible source of ideas.
"No one can claim complete understanding of any subject or challenges emerging from the volatile and complex world we are in," he said.
This is also why foreign actors believe it is worth their while to influence views here, especially as Singapore has a reputation for having well-considered views and plans when it comes to geopolitical and strategic issues, he said.


The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) told The Sunday Times that since Fica's provisions on hostile information campaigns came into force on July 7, the Government has not detected any such campaigns targeted at Singapore, and the provisions in Fica have not been used.
But disinformation in the form of hearsay, rumours, half-truths or misleading statements that may not be easily identified as such could still do damage. Minister for Home Affairs K. Shanmugam said in a parliamentary reply in April that these could appear to come from sources that seem local or authentic at first glance. He said these "are all the more insidious as they behave or are passed off as part of legitimate domestic discourse".

Tactics and methods​

While online messages that are pro-West could be found, Russia has been frequently identified in studies by think-tanks as carrying out disinformation campaigns targeted at the populations in other places, from Europe and the US to former Soviet states.
The Kremlin's disinformation efforts are significant as they rely on forming an early narrative and employ a wide range of outlets, channels and users to parrot this, according to a 2020 report by the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
Another country often cited for its online disinformation efforts in recent years is China. A widely cited 2021 study by a French think-tank highlighted how Beijing's influence operations "have been considerably hardened in recent years and its methods increasingly resemble Moscow's".
The 646-page report covered efforts that have been targeted at Singapore, particularly during a downturn in bilateral relations in late 2016, when Hong Kong Customs seized military vehicles belonging to Singapore.


Traces of the campaign can still be found. One YouTube account that was started in October 2016 has about 50 videos, mostly of Singapore political leaders speaking on topics related to China, such as its relationship with Western countries.
The most viewed item, with more than 3.4 million views and 11,400 comments, shows Mr Lee Kuan Yew speaking at the University of Hong Kong in 1992.
"I have never believed that democracy breeds progress. I know it to have brought regression," he says in the video subtitled in Chinese.
Such messages often rely on third-party advocates who are not government officials, such as media pundits, academics and political leaders from other countries.
The use of such advocates is a clear social engineering tactic, said Professor Lim Sun Sun, head of humanities, arts and social sciences at the Singapore University of Technology and Design.
"Given that these 'independent' experts come across as having the requisite expertise, yet demonstrate no vested interests or clear loyalties, their words will likely carry more weight than those of appointed spokesmen."
MORE ON THIS TOPIC
S'pore is second most influenced by China in the world, according to Taiwan report
Global views of China remain negative, but Singapore an exception
Whereas official state representatives are prone to triggering audiences' knee-jerk dismissal of their views, third-party commentators bear an imprimatur of objectivity and authority.
"Not only are they less likely to be ignored, they may in fact be taken seriously," she said.
She added that using such advocates could undermine the value of legitimate experts whose views are canvassed by credible media.
"This practice, if further abused, will engender suspicion of expert authorities and reduce trust in professional opinions, however objective and well-grounded," she said.
While the use of foreign propaganda and campaigns aimed at swaying the democratic processes of societies is nothing new, it is now a wide-scale problem amplified through social media, said Assistant Professor Saifuddin Ahmed from Nanyang Technological University's Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information.
The reasons the actors do so are often to confuse and divide civil societies over critical social issues, which undermines civic trust in democratic institutions, he said.
"The functioning of any society rests on the trust between citizens and the government; if this bond is broken, it would be challenging to ensure the success of any public policy."
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Apps such as Telegram, WhatsApp, WeChat and YouTube have been used to spread carefully crafted messages meant to mislead. PHOTO: MINISTRY OF COMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION

What more can be done​

As an open, highly connected and diverse society, the authorities in Singapore have maintained that it is especially vulnerable to foreign interference. Experts such as Dr Jayakumar believe more must be done to raise awareness of the threat that foreign disinformation poses, as has been done for the threat of terrorism.
Part of the complexity is not being able to attribute the source of these disinformation threats as clearly as for terrorist plots.
Dr Jayakumar said: "It is easy to say self-radicalised or ISIS or Al-Qaeda for terrorism-related issues, but for the disinformation threat, we don't really do that. Serious thought needs to be given when it comes to the calculus of attribution - we know many powers wage information campaigns, and we don't necessarily need to point fingers on each and every occasion, but some sensitisation needs to be done."
MHA said the public should consider the accuracy and credibility of information they get by cross-checking with reputable, identifiable and institutional sources. This is to avoid becoming "unwitting mouthpieces" for hostile foreign actors, who are creative in the way they convey information.
In a recent commentary for ST, former senior diplomat Bilahari Kausikan called for greater understanding of international affairs, including being aware of the "trope" of an inexorable rise of the East and the decline of the West.
"We live in an age where politics everywhere is increasingly identity politics and subject to a variety of external influences, many state-sponsored," he said. "The consequence is often confusion over our fundamental national interests at a time when clarity of thought is more than usually crucial."
 

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Me pro-China? I accept the label, says ex-foreign minister George Yeo as he weighs in on Sino-US tensions​

Former foreign affairs minister George Yeo (pictured) was based in Hong Kong for several years as chairman and executive director of Kerry Logistics Network before he retired in 2019.
Nuria Ling/TODAY
Former foreign affairs minister George Yeo (pictured) was based in Hong Kong for several years as chairman and executive director of Kerry Logistics Network before he retired in 2019.
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  • Former foreign affairs minister George Yeo said there is a misperception that China is a tiger that will "leap at you and eat you up”
  • Its nature, in reality, is that of a panda that will maul someone badly if fooled around with, he said
  • He said neither leaders in the US or China hope for war, but accidents can happen
  • And if war breaks out, he said it would leave Singapore in a tight spot
  • The conflict between the two superpowers could have cataclysmic consequences for the world as well

BY

LOW YOUJIN

Published August 23, 2022

SINGAPORE — Leaders of both the United States and China may not want war, but they are often pulled by mass public emotions, which could result in a conflict that would be “cataclysmic” for the whole world, former foreign affairs minister George Yeo said.
The visiting scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore said there is a misperception that China is a tiger that will “leap at you and eat you up”, when the reality is that its nature is that of a panda.
"But China has got to signal that its nature is not that of a tiger, but a panda," he added.
Since he left public office in 2011, Mr Yeo has spoken and written extensively on China.
In his analogy, which the 67-year-old gave during an interview with TODAY on Monday (Aug 22), he said that the panda may look cute, but “you don’t fool around with it. You can be badly mauled”.

Mr Yeo, who accepted that he is seen as being pro-Beijing by some, was giving an interview to coincide with the launch of his book, titled George Yeo: Musings, which is based on interviews with veteran media practitioner Woon Tai Ho and is intended to be the first of three books.
Aside from his last post as Singapore's foreign affairs minister, Mr Yeo has also been minister for health, trade and industry, and information and the arts at various points of his 23-year career. He left office when the watershed 2011 General Election (GE) cut short his political career.
Mr Yeo, who was based in Hong Kong for several years as chairman and executive director of Kerry Logistics Network before he retired in 2019, said on Monday that China is an old civilisation with very conservative instincts that makes it predictable.
Every Chinese dynasty, he said, has built walls, and it continues to do so in the capital market, for Hollywood movies and even games.
“Why do they do that? Why don’t they open up? They like their homogeneity, this makes it easier to govern.”
But with tensions between the two superpowers rising after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on Aug 2, he said that both sides are now planning for war.

“China, for sure, doesn’t wish it, but in the US, there are people who think that war is inevitable… And if it is inevitable, better to have it earlier than later, when China is not as strong.''

China, for sure, doesn’t wish it, but in the US, there are people who think that war is inevitable…And if it is inevitable, better to have it earlier than later, when China is not as strong.
Former Cabinet minister George Yeo on the prospect of war between China and the United States
Mr Yeo said studies have been done, which indicated that if a war is held sooner rather than later, China will be badly bloodied, while the US will be hurt.
However, if it is held 10 years from now, both sides will be badly bloodied.
“The point is, the longer you wait, the greater China’s relative strength is,” he added.

When asked when he foresaw war between the two nations breaking out, Mr Yeo said that history is full of surprises and that war “doesn't happen in the way we think it would, by cold analysis”.
This is because the actors do not act on the basis of analysis alone, but rather, are “driven by mass passions” and accidents can happen.

In war and peace, at the top, people may not want war. At the bottom, things happen and leaders are pulled by mass emotions, particularly in boisterous democracies, like India and US.
Former Cabinet minister George Yeo

"In war and peace, at the top, people may not want war. At the bottom, things happen and leaders are pulled by mass emotions, particularly in boisterous democracies like India and US," Mr Yeo said.
"China is much more disciplined, they control the media, they can lower public temperature, if they have to. They can raise it, if they need to," he added.
"But in the West and India, sometimes you are led by public emotions. China has to factor this in their own calculations, that others don’t behave like you. Therefore, you must not misread their reactions to your actions."
Mr Yeo said that Mrs Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could have been prevented if US President Joe Biden was a “stronger leader”.
China considers Taiwan a breakaway province that should be part of its territory under the one-China policy, which the US recognises, with the proviso that the status quo should not be altered without the consent of both parties.
The US adopts an attitude of "strategic ambiguity" as to whether it would intervene to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China.

Political analysts previously told TODAY that China considers Mrs Pelosi’s trip as a form of political intimidation and disrespect to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Should war break out, as a result, Mr Yeo said that both the US and China know it will be “cataclysmic for the entire world, not just for the two countries”.
This would also leave Singapore in a very tight position, he added.
“To begin with, we have a special relationship with Taiwan. We have people there. I think if I were in Mindef (the Ministry of Defence), I’ll be having contingency planning.”
And as the US has ships and aircraft in Singapore, it will become a question of whether to allow the Western power to continue using the country.
“I’m not in Government, but I have no doubts we have a lot of people spending a lot of time thinking about this, and worrying about this,” he said.

DON’T MAKE JUDGEMENTS ON SNAPSHOTS


On Singapore’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr Yeo said that when there is a “snapshot of a big guy beating up a small guy”, it is natural to feel sympathetic for the victim, particularly so for tiny Singapore.
But the reality is not so simple when viewed in a larger context, he said.
TODAY previously reported that Ukraine, a nation slightly smaller than Myanmar with about 43 million people, wanted to join Nato, a military alliance of 30 countries in Europe and North America, but Russia is concerned that any such move would tip the global power balance against it.
“There was a reason why things happen this way,” Mr Yeo said. “I don’t agree the big guy should react this way, but I can understand when I see the entire video, why the big guy, at a high cost to himself, decides to take this course of action.”
Using another analogy, he said that when there is a motor vehicle accident, it is important to play the entire video, “otherwise, you're forming your judgement based upon a snapshot”.
Mr Yeo was surprised that the Singapore Government issued sanctions against Russia, rather than wait for a decision by the United Nations Security Council, because this “breaches a dangerous precedent”.

“But then the argument is, Russia has the veto power (as a member of the security council)… (and it) will never agree to sanctions against itself. So we had to take a position.”
He added that even if the US did not add pressure on Singapore, “we would have felt the pressure anyway” because of Singapore’s dependence on US in areas such as the financial sector and military hardware.
The question then, was whether Singapore should have gone beyond making strong statements to impose sanctions on Russia.
“And when we decide on sanctions, how broad are the sanctions? I understand our sanctions are quite limited,” he said.
“In the end… I think it was a compromise. They (the Government) didn't want to go too far. But at the same time, to not take a position when something like this happens, we will regret later.
“So finessing it, sometimes, pleases nobody. But doing it more one way or the other may have resulted in greater costs to ourselves.”

OLD LEAVES FALL BACK TO THEIR ROOTS

When TODAY broached the topic of what importance China has to Mr Yeo, he responded that the Chinese have a saying that when the leaves are old, they fall back to their roots.
He spoke about how this was the case for his father, whose “Chinese-ness” grew stronger in his older age, citing an example of how the older man was rooting for the Chinese team during one Olympic Game.
“That’s how he felt. As you grow older, your sense of tradition and your ancestry become stronger.”
When TODAY pointed out that some younger Chinese Singaporeans may identify themselves more strongly with their nationality than ethnicity, Mr Yeo said: “In Singapore, you can say that.
“If you’re a Singaporean Chinese in America, you will feel much more strongly in your Chinese-ness because others see you in your Chinese-ness, and you can’t escape it.”
Mr Yeo was also asked about a video clip he shared in early March this year on his Facebook page by Fox News host Tucker Carlson about claims that the US was funding biological programmes in Ukraine.
In his caption for the post, he merely wrote: “From an unexpected quarter”, which drew criticisms from several segments of the online community since the video clip had been already been found to be false.
Mr Yeo clarified that he was not saying that he agreed with the video’s message, but that he simply found it fascinating because Mr Carlson, “who is normally very anti-China, took China’s side”.
When probed if what Mr Yeo has been saying about China, combined with his posts about the country on social media, might be seen by some as “pro-China”, Mr Yeo did not disagree.
“Well, I accept that. But I hope those people will read my book, and the coming two ones, and then have an overall evaluation of who I am.”
 

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Singaporeans must stand up for its people and not take sides amid global tensions: DPM Wong​

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Osmond Chia

Sep 10, 2022

SINGAPORE - It is vital to cultivate trust among Singaporeans amid economic challenges and growing tensions between the United States and China, said Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Saturday.
He was speaking at the opening of the newly renovated Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCCI) at 47 Hill Street, near City Hall.
He warned that Singapore could face pressure as geopolitical contestation rises in the region.
Singapore could be pulled in different directions by the major powers and pushed to take sides, but it should always stand up for its people, said Mr Wong, who is also the Minister for Finance.
He added: "That means being clear about what our vital interests are, and standing firm on these interests in a consistent and principled manner.
"It means we must never allow ourselves to be taken in by misinformation. And when it comes to dealing with external issues, we must quickly close ranks amongst ourselves, and stay united as one people."
Mr Wong said SCCCI has played a key role in Singapore's history, and that its contributions embody values that helped the nation get through the Covid-19 pandemic. He also encouraged the chamber to champion the needs of the nation's enterprises.

Founded in 1906, SCCCI represents more than 40,000 companies here, including multinational firms and small and medium-sized enterprises across various trades.
During the pandemic, the chamber engaged its members, and they provided feedback and worked with the authorities to help shape Singapore's response measures, said Mr Wong.
The chamber can continue to play a key role in helping Singapore to steer through new challenges ahead, he added.

He cited the Ukraine war as a catalyst of economic uncertainties, such as the gas and energy shortage in Europe that will worsen as winter approaches.
Food harvest will be affected in the light of the ongoing global fertiliser shortage, accelerated by the warring countries, which are significant exporters of fertiliser, said Mr Wong.
Central banks in developed countries are also likely to raise interest rates to curb inflation, causing the global economy to slow down, he added.
The Government will help Singaporean households and businesses cope with rising prices through relief measures and schemes to help firms remain current.

An effort to build trust in society and to understand the needs of the people is the public engagement exercise Forward Singapore, said Mr Wong.
Since its launch in June, the exercise has received suggestions such as how to provide more opportunities for businesses and workers, and how to meet the needs of vulnerable groups, such as lower-income households and the elderly, said Mr Wong.
SCCCI can play a critical role in the exercise, he added, inviting its members to support the initiative.
He said: "As a leading business association, you are well placed to champion the needs of our enterprises, including the need to continue growing and to create good opportunities and jobs for Singaporeans at the same time."
SCCCI president Kho Choon Keng said the chamber will support the Government's efforts to keep the economy open, embark on economic transformation and maintain good international connectivity.
He added: "The key to Singapore's success lies in a united, highly effective, honest, non-corrupt, meritocratic government highly trusted by the people."
The opening ceremony of the revamped SCCCI building was attended by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong as the guest of honour, along with around 200 chamber members and other guests.
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PM Lee Hsien Loong (centre) with (from left) Manpower Minister Tan See Leng, DPM Lawrence Wong, SCCCI president Kho Choon Keng and former SCCCI president Roland Ng officiating the opening of the renovated SCCCI building on Sept 10, 2022. ST PHOTO: KEVIN LIM
The building was completed in 1964 and opened by founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew. Mr Lee encouraged the Chinese community then to make Singapore their home and integrate with the multiracial South-east Asian society, reflecting the concerns of that era, said Mr Kho.
The revamped building brings together traditional and modern designs, retaining the iconic nine-dragon wall at the front of the premises while having the addition of a modern curved glass facade.
In the coming months, function rooms will be available for the public to rent. Visitors can soon book a visit to the new Chinese Business Culture Hub on the fourth floor to view artefacts that are significant to Singapore's history in business and trade.
 

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'A little bit hopeful': Singapore minister Vivian Balakrishnan on US-China ties​

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The Minister said he had met with foreign ministers and leaders of over 50 countries in five days in New York. PHOTO: REUTERS
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Nirmal Ghosh
US Bureau Chief

Sep 25, 2022

WASHINGTON - Singapore's Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan says he is "a little bit hopeful" about relations between China and the United States after the two countries' foreign ministers met in New York on Friday.
"Clearly if you look at the rhetoric and the actions that have occurred across the Taiwan Strait in recent weeks it's an area of concern, I would even say grave concern," Dr Balakrishnan told The Straits Times after delivering his speech at the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday.
"But I am a little bit hopeful because there has been a meeting face to face… (and) I think both sides understand the gravity of the situation."
He said he hoped that "cool heads and good sense" will prevail and that the US and China would avoid the possibility of mishaps or miscalculations occurring.
"But that's an expression of hope, we'll have to wait and see," he said.
He also noted that the next two to three months would be a vital period to de-escalate the situation, and for tensions between the two countries to be dampened.
This included upcoming summits, which presented opportunities for the two global powers to meet.

He said: "I hope that the presidents of China and the United States will meet face to face, arrive at some kind of modus vivendi, and set the tone so that officials, ministers, all the stakeholders involved, can conduct constructive, hopefully positive negotiations."
Given multiple global anxieties - from the war in Ukraine to food and energy prices to US-China relations and climate change - the mood at the 77th UN General Assembly and related meetings in New York was "sombre" Dr Balakrishnan told Singapore media.
He noted that Europe and Russia were still very far apart on the issue of Ukraine.

"There's a very, very wide gap," he said. "And my sense of it right now as far as Ukraine is concerned is that conditions are not right for negotiations."
He said that Russia's mobilisation of reservists to strengthen its army in Ukraine was a bad sign.
"It shows escalating tension and the fact that we're not going to get a quick resolution," he added.

Dr Balakrishnan said he had met with foreign ministers and leaders of more than 60 countries in five days in New York.
Multilateral meetings included that of the Forum of Small States (FOSS), which celebrated its 30th anniversary on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
FOSS has grown from 16 countries when it first started to 108 member countries, forming a majority in the UN.

The small states' priorities centre on multilateralism, a rules-based system with the UN charter at its heart, said Dr Balakrishnan.
This means encouraging bigger powers to act with self-restraint and to comply with international law, he said.
Singapore also convened the Global Governance Group, which acts as a bridge between the Group of 20 (G-20) countries and the non G-20 countries in the larger UN membership.
Asked about the situation in Myanmar, which is currently governed by the military, Dr Balakrishnan said he was pessimistic.
"Our view remains that the only way out of this quagmire is for political reconciliation, for good faith discussions and negotiations between all the parties" he said.
Talks must involve National League for Democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the military led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, he said.
"There has to be a proper meeting, a proper attempt to put the interests of their country first, to set aside the differences and to try to negotiate," he said. "Without that happening, you will not get a solution."
He stressed, however, that this was an internal matter for Myanmar to resolve, and that external intervention was not the answer.
"Asean was never set up to interfere in internal matters, and nor should we," he said, referring to the South-east Asian regional bloc.
 

mudhatter

Alfrescian
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more likely thatgiven tiong and yankee long history of collab, they're worknig together to drag down russkies japs gayropeans and then maybe ceca virus so that only two contenders remain in the ring.

that's why ukraine was used as sacrificial lamb by yankees against russkies.

russkie dogs still don't recognize taliban regime in afghanistna, still don't export ICBM and nukes to all the anti yankee groups.

just a big bs'er. it continues to recognize zionist terrorist organization and treats it with respect. absurd.

btw off topic, if drones could win wars, why turkish donkeys can't oust russkies from syria - right now- when russkie are busy against nato in prosxy war in urkaine?

or why iran or turkey can't liberate palestine against teeny tiny pesky zionist terrorists organizatoins?
 
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