If the K, Q & J (the three pictures on your poker deck) leave Aljunied to contest AMK, LHL is dead duck. But don't worry, they won't do that as responsible opposition. They want to want more seats, yes, but they know that the country isn't yet ready for a change of government and goverment isn't yet ready for a change of PM.
I dont need K, Q, J to contest AMK. At the present moment, a few medium weights could have cost an upset.
I m looking at PAP for 55% (+/- 2%).
If any of K, Q, J were to be ine team, we could see PAP for 51% (+/- 2%).
At that sort of odds, even with no WP heavyweights and just medium weights, LHL could find himself losing everything and its a risk not worth to take.
The only way to balance it off is to have a 3CF and PAP could still win at 45% (+/- 2%).
I m sure LHL and his team of scholar advisors would have done their maths and not risk it. Unless those idiots just want to kiss ass and give too positive of a figure to make LHL look like a complete idiot.