Policy watch: Economy strategy

[SgParent]

http://forums.delphiforums.com/3in1kopitiam/messages?msg=65978.31

Singapore's PMI shrinks for 3rd month, recession looms
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapores-pmi-shrinks-3rd-month-132959368.html

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SINGAPORE, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Singapore's manufacturing

sector contracted for a third consecutive month in September as

new orders fell further, a business survey showed, bolstering

the view the trade-dependent city-state likely slipped into

recession in the third quarter.
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1M thanks to the White Scums, Singapore is still stuck in the strategy formulated decades ago, plague by failed policies and missed opportunities.

That's why our economy is so affected by manufacturing output.

*** HINT: you know why the White Scums are so keen to continue importing cheaperest foreigners?***

===EDIT===
And do you know why recently many normally chobolan White Scums came out to say importation of cheaperest foreigners is slowing? To blame the recession on less foreigners, and they'll tell you not to say they never warn you earlier

 

[wikiphile]

You are the stand in for makapaa?

 

[SgParent]

You are the stand in for makapaa?

Ah that name sounds familiar... so he is also a strong supporter of seeing healthy political competition that always, always benefits the consumers?

 

[SgParent]

Singapore's Economy Is Maxed Out
http://seekingalpha.com/article/905081-singapore-s-economy-is-maxed-out

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The bulk of Singapore's population is of working age, which gives reason to the 60% of it being employed. This chart above suggests a wave of folks in their 50s will be coming to retirement age soon likely to bring down the percent of the population that is employed.

Population growth would help bring about more hours worked in the aggregate economy, but the population density is already close to that of NYC. At the same time, Singapore's birth rate of just 7.72 births per 1,000 population in 2011 ranks it the lowest of 222 nations measured.

It's actually a demographic time bomb. Today, there are 6.3 working age Singaporeans for every senior citizen, by 2030, it'll be 2:1.

It looks to me like Singapore is mightily close to what Japan was in 1990 and could be in for decades of lower total aggregate hours worked, which will mean very low GDP growth that will mostly come from gains in productivity.
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don'tbugmeplease Comments (6)

I was a Singaporean native.

Do not be misled by the published figures. The "forced savings" are grossly insufficient and the owned homes are just rentals from the government.

The government has continually increased the age and minimum sum to prevent citizens from accessing their savings. It is encouraging citizens to sell their homes when they get older, because they don't need the space and the money can be used to support themselves

There is a huge issue of ageing population and declining birth rate which they have attempted to reverse using immigration policies but this has backfired and further depressed productivity.

Don't take my word for it, do some Google research and read both sides of the story.


Dana H. Comments (89)

Very interesting article. If productivity does not rise quickly enough, I wonder if Singapore will end up promoting immigration as a solution to the aging native population.

Do you know if Singapore has a large welfare program for retirees? I.e., do people generally take responsibility for their own retirement savings, or do they instead rely on a government program? If the former, then the "demographic time bomb" is less of an issue.

 

[giggity_shit]

Singaporeans are basically unskilled workers. All carry paper, but cannot do real work.

 

[Dreamer1]

The answer is productivity and innovation,creativity,experts like PM Lee and DPM Tharma,the economist expert from LSE,both do not understand,that is why they will be replaced.very soon.

 

[SgParent]

Singaporeans are basically unskilled workers. All carry paper, but cannot do real work.

Not bad if we are all really just paper carrier, to progress quickly from Third to First World

Unfortunately we are declining back to Third World standard in double quick time. All thanks to the White Scums who are still stuck in economy strategy formulated decades ago, and caused us ample missed opportunity and wasted resources

But the greatest thanks are reserved for the daft 60% who sold out theirs and their children's future for a pathetic "Sorry", some stupid LUP, this package or that package.

Let's join our hands to pray and repent

 

[SgParent]

The answer is productivity and innovation,creativity,experts like PM Lee and DPM Tharma,the economist expert from LSE,both do not understand,that is why they will be replaced.very soon.

On the contrary I think those White Scums and their lackeys are excellent in innovations and creativity, to amass wealth for themselves and to find words to cover up their many mistakes

 

[Dreamer1]

On the contrary I think those White Scums and their lackeys are excellent in innovations and creativity, to amass wealth for themselves and to find words to cover up their many mistakes

U are right.

 

[Cruxx]

Not bad if we are all really just paper carrier, to progress quickly from Third to First World

Unfortunately we are declining back to Third World standard in double quick time. All thanks to the White Scums who are still stuck in economy strategy formulated decades ago, and caused us ample missed opportunity and wasted resources

But the greatest thanks are reserved for the daft 60% who sold out theirs and their children's future for a pathetic "Sorry", some stupid LUP, this package or that package.

Let's join our hands to pray and repent

Care to tell us more about this interesting Third World to First World tale? I'm all ears.

 

[Rogue Trader]

Singapore can't export anything to the world, so got to:

1) lease/sell property for foreign funds
2) attract MNCs and depress labour cost by substituting with cheaper workers
3) mass import residents to create domestic demand

 

[mojito]

Care to tell us more about this interesting Third World to First World tale? I'm all ears.

This whole third world, first world thing I think is a western construct. To continental Europeans, America is the New World beyond the one they already live in, and everywhere else is Third World. Did a giant trawler drag the island to the English Channel? Singapore is always Third World in the eyes of the Ang Mors. Too many sillizens bought into the whole LKY bullshit just because SG got classified as a newly industrialized economy by OECD.

 

[mojito]

Singapore can't export anything to the world, so got to:

1) lease/sell property for foreign funds
2) attract MNCs and depress labour cost by substituting with cheaper workers
3) mass import residents to create domestic demand

A succinct post from a clear-sighted man. Thank you.

 

[SgParent]

Care to tell us more about this interesting Third World to First World tale? I'm all ears.

Where have you been all these years?

Next you will ask for proof that Pinky got to the throne on his own credentials alone

 

[SgParent]

Singapore can't export anything to the world, so got to:

Because the White Scums created many GLC which killed off 99.99% budding companies and ideas

But these GLC themselves lead by White Scums lackeys and many rejects from politics, SAF, etc, etc, have zero interest in innovations

 

[SgParent]

65978.48 in reply to 65978.47
http://singaporemind.blogspot.sg/2012/10/debunking-dpm-teos-immigration-argument.html
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Debunking the DPM Teo's immigration argument.
In a recent town hall meeting, DPM Teo Chee Hean presented his argument that our low fertility rate today means that we need to have 20K-25K new citizens per year. You can and should read his speech and presentation in full here. For readers of this blog, you are probably familiar with the flaw in this argument - a shortfall of babies today can only be properly compensated by importing babies today or 25 year olds in 2037. ....not 20K adults which is what the PAP claims.

I want to show you visually using DPM Teo's own presentation diagrams and data to show why his argument is wrong.

This is Singapore's population profile in 2011 and 2050 without immigration:

In a steady state situation where the TFR is 2.1 and the total population is constant, the profite is a rectangle in which every red and blue bars are of equal length.

Our current population profile is a barrel shape with more people below age 40, than above age 40. In 2050, the profile looks like an inverted pyramid, with more old people than young people.

If you import a 30 year old man, say from Phillipines or China, and make him a citizen today, in 2050, he will be 78 years old and his addition will go to 2nd bar counting from the top. If you import 100,000, 30 yr old today, 100K will be added to this bar i.e it will make the profile worse in 2050 because there will be even more aged people.

The correct way to compensate for the baby shortfall and ageing population is shown here:


To get a steady state profile of a rectangle in 2050, we need to add new citizens to the 45-49 age group and younger. The 30 year old new citizen should be added in 2035 or later to contribute positively to this profile - by 2050, he will be 45 years old and added to the yellow section where he is needed. We can also equivalently bring in 20 year olds in 2025 or 10 year olds in 2015 or 7 year olds in 2012. Bringing in adults today will just make this profile worse.

If you look at the diagram carefully, it also tells us there is no other real solution except to get our TFR back up. Why? If TFR does not go up, we need to import a and increasing number of people each year roughly 20 yrs from now....by 2050, if you look at the bottom bar 0-4 years old, we need to bring in as many as people as we reproduce, this is both unimaginable and impractical.

Given that we do not need to import adults as new citizens now and worsen the problem, we have time to push our TFR up which is the only viable solution. Using our current low fertility to justify more foreign import is not incorrect, it is harmful in the long run.

Another thing to note is the Singaporean population profile is completely different from our workforce profile which has a large number of non residents holding employment passes and work permits. This part of the workforce is always ’renewed’ causing our workforce to be artificially young leading to structural unemployment among those above 40. If you look at the workforce profile, the argument to import people to keep population young weakens further as the large number of young imported workers has already skewed our workforce profile and will continue to keep our workforce artificially young because after working here for a few years the PRC or Indian worker will go home and another young worker will take his place.

 

[greedy and cunning]

Singapore can't export anything to the world, so got to:

1) lease/sell property for foreign funds
2) attract MNCs and depress labour cost by substituting with cheaper workers
3) mass import residents to create domestic demand

and keep constructing and demolishing and building

 

[SgParent]

http://www.rttnews.com/1988059/singapore-september-inflation-rises-more-than-expected.aspx
Singapore September Inflation Rises More Than Expected

10/23/2012 1:15 AM ET
Singapore's consumer price inflation accelerated more than economists expected in September, data released by Statistics Singapore showed Tuesday.

Annual inflation increased sharply to 4.7 percent in September from 3.9 percent in August. Economists were looking for a more modest rise to 4.3 percent.

Food prices rose 2.1 percent annually, while housing costs climbed 6.4 percent. Clothing and footwear prices were higher by 2.4 percent compared to last year, and transportation costs by 9.6 percent, data showed.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index moved up 0.6 percent in September. In the January-September period, prices advanced 4.8 percent from the same period a year earlier.

by RTT Staff Writer

For comments and feedback: [email protected]



Yup. That's what happened if your economy strategy main thrust is to mass import foreigners to boost consumption

 

[SgParent]

From: SgParent 10:23 pm
To: ALL (25 of 25)
65744.25 in reply to 65744.24
http://therealsingapore.com/content/k-shanmugam-low-growth-going-be-fact-life
K SHANMUGAM: LOW GROWTH IS GOING TO BE A FACT OF LIFE
THEREALSINGAPORE Mon, 11/05/2012 - 20:36


growth

”You’ve seen Minister Lim (Swee Say) saying we may have to settle for low growth. Now low growth does not mean that we will all be able to say, be graceful, have a good standard of life, play golf. No.

“Low growth in Singapore, in the context of high growth region means lack of opportunities in Singapore. A lot of people don’t understand this. You see articles all around – ‘oh it’s okay, let’s adjust to a low growth’.

“First, low growth is going to be a fact of life. We’re not going to be able to grow at six to eight per cent. Not easy, let’s understand that.

“Second, what does low growth mean when all your neighbours are growing high? Just look at Japan, it means less opportunities for young people, in the event of 40 to 50 per cent of the population coming out with degrees. It means reduced dynamism in the economy, it means industries moving out, these are the challenges we have to face and these are the messages we have to get across and what are the choices that people want to make. Low growth carries serious consequences.” ~ Law Minister K Shanmugam

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Let's see.

What exact reasons does Botak Shan have in mind when he said Singapore will see low growth?

Less foreigners that would otherwise drive up consumption, GDP?

Low end, lame businesses moving out because their free flow of cheaperest foreigner is no more?

Or what?

I doubt Singapore economy will really see any serious impact. So why is Botak Shan trying to scare us?

 

[johnny333]

Singapore can't export anything to the world, so got to:

1) lease/sell property for foreign funds
2) attract MNCs and depress labour cost by substituting with cheaper workers
3) mass import residents to create domestic demand

Despite all these limitations, the PAP insists they should be paid the highest salaries in the world. Don't forget all the extras from directorships, consultantships, etc I suspect the largest number of local millionaires are working for the gov't

Some even claim that there are a number of billionaires in this group

In some countries this would be called corruption, but in Spore it is Lee-gal