Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Paper

[aurvandil]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

Yes there were a series of feedback sessions, consultations and feedback sought from the public. Some of it were led by Ministers. However very similar to the National Conversation debacle where the participants were same lot of beleivers and party faithful. Incestious, myopic and not in listening mode.

Good quality research involves drawing an unbiased sample so that you can accurately forecast the outcome of the wider population. Instead of doing this, NPTD assembled cheer leading teams who basically told the DPM and Ministers what they wanted to hear during the FGDs.

You can see summaries of 2 FGDs which they published online. Contrast this to the actual reaction which culminated in the 4,000 to 5,000 strong protest at Hong Lim.

http://population.sg/engagement/fac...nomy/files/focus-group-highlights-economy.pdf

http://population.sg/engagement/facilitated-sessions/society/files/focus-group-highlights.pdf

To give an idea of who showed up at these sessions, check out the following video NPTD put out. Does it look representative of Singapore or is it representative of those that show up at those block parties and CC/RC dinner?

[video=vimeo;50662913]http://vimeo.com/50662913[/video]

 

[Spock]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

The civil service works with the end in mind. Before embarking on this population research, the author(s) would need to suss out what is the desired outcome of their bosses. In this case, since the government is PAP and PAP is the government, the author(s) will need to start off on the basis of PAP's wishes or ultimately, LHL's wishes. With the end-goal determined, the work is now on evaluating the means and providing the justification for the approach.

There is no such thing as an open-ended research in the civil service. This so called "research" is a sham. If the civil servant drafts a paper with an unsuitable outcome, he will be hinted to rewrite it with pointed questions being asked. Woe betide any civil servant who refuses to rewrite the paper with the desired outcome. This is the consequence when the government becomes beholden to a political party due to it being in power for so long. The government answers to the party rather than to the people.

 

[watchman8]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

The civil service works with the end in mind. Before embarking on this population research, the author(s) would need to suss out what is the desired outcome of their bosses. In this case, since the government is PAP and PAP is the government, the author(s) will need to start off on the basis of PAP's wishes or ultimately, LHL's wishes. With the end-goal determined, the work is now on evaluating the means and providing the justification for the approach.

There is no such thing as an open-ended research in the civil service. This so called "research" is a sham. If the civil servant drafts a paper with an unsuitable outcome, he will be hinted to rewrite it with pointed questions being asked. Woe betide any civil servant who refuses to rewrite the paper with the desired outcome. This is the consequence when the government becomes beholden to a political party due to it being in power for so long. The government answers to the party rather than to the people.

Exactly, that is essentially what the civil service is about, i.e. carry out the wishes of the political master. And the current political master (i.e. Leegime) wants plenty more foreigners to boost up GDP further.

Nothing wrong with civil service or Ngiam Siew Ying. The blame must solely rest on the current political leegime.

 

[zhihau]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

The civil service works with the end in mind.

what happens if it were to be a continuum? a vision with no end, would they be running in circles?

 

[scroobal]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

Actually when you first join the Admin Service the expectation is to write papers that are insightful, penetrative and offer at least one unconventional option within the options box. It carries their names and it goes up the chain and all the way to the old man. The good ones with keen minds are then identified. Interestingly they tend to be quite harsh on current practices and even the govt and some of the cabinet approved measures.

For some reason, as they advance, they start to be political and accommodative. Some call it groupthink, others "fitting into the establishment"

I wonder how many of us can recall Han and Gabriel Lim, both noted for their forthright views when they were undgrads and prepared to speak their minds. Gabriel is now PPS for PM. Note the notion of monopolising talent which Ngiam spoke about. Note what Viv B and CJ Tan said before entering parliament. Strong words that have now fallen into heaps.

I do however agreed that once they start rising up the ladder, the quality of work drops dramatically. You learn to fit the PAP's political agenda.

The civil service works with the end in mind. Before embarking on this population research, the author(s) would need to suss out what is the desired outcome of their bosses. In this case, since the government is PAP and PAP is the government, the author(s) will need to start off on the basis of PAP's wishes or ultimately, LHL's wishes. With the end-goal determined, the work is now on evaluating the means and providing the justification for the approach.
.

 

[aurvandil]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

In this case, the outcome was clear. The PAP wanted a White Paper which would be accepted by the majority of Singaporeans. A-priori, it was already well established that Singaporeans were unhappy about the FT policy. The research should have focused on finding out what was the threshold that a majority of Singaporeans were prepared to accept.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is now obvious what this threshold is. Singaporeans are prepared to accept a slowdown of the immigration rate to between 30,000 to 50,000 annually (the WP proposal). They want a sharp drop in economic immigration but are open to immigration based on family ties. They want a rapid build up of infrastructure to cope with the large population increase which has occurred over the past 10 years. Based on the timeline rollout by the PAP, this will take about 10 years. After the infrastructure has been rebuilt to accommodate the larger population, we can then revisit the issue of immigration to help address the issue of our aging population.

If NPTD had done their research properly, they would have been able draft a proper White Paper based on reality rather than fantasy. This is the failing of Ngiam Siew Ling. Incidentally she is a bit of an attention whore ... she is the only NPTD staff on the video NPTD put out (see 0:31). I suppose before it all went bad, that must have seemed like a good idea.

The civil service works with the end in mind. Before embarking on this population research, the author(s) would need to suss out what is the desired outcome of their bosses.

 

[Bigfuck]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

The civil service works with the end in mind. Before embarking on this population research, the author(s) would need to suss out what is the desired outcome of their bosses. In this case, since the government is PAP and PAP is the government, the author(s) will need to start off on the basis of PAP's wishes or ultimately, LHL's wishes. With the end-goal determined, the work is now on evaluating the means and providing the justification for the approach.
.

Look you need proper research to do the simulations to find the optimum ranges and trade offs. But they cannot even do that. In that case everything else written are lies based on lies. Lies base on a truths can still be saved. It is like building structures on God knows what they put in it.

 

[lockeliberal]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

Dear Arun, Scroobal.

I remember one "world famous" quote from the PM about the ERC committee in 2001 or 2002. " We turned up all the stones and put them back in the same place " Scroobal and Serendipity commented then about how the "process" was designed to justify a pre determined outcome and I am very much afraid the same games are being played out today.

The population paper opinion gathering exercise was a series of motherhood statements. How much information was given to the participants ? There is a difference between asking , " how do we integrate new immigrants and foreign workers into our society, " " do we need immigrants and foreign workers " and well How do we integrate 6.9 million foreign workers and immigrants and " do we need 6.9 million immigrants and foreign workers. " Shape the question and the forum , shape the answers, a trick as old as time.

Someone somewhere seperately has already decided on a 6.9 million number, the paper was just a means to justify getting there.


Locke

In this case, the outcome was clear. The PAP wanted a White Paper which would be accepted by the majority of Singaporeans. A-priori, it was already well established that Singaporeans were unhappy about the FT policy. The research should have focused on finding out what was the threshold that a majority of Singaporeans were prepared to accept.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is now obvious what this threshold is. Singaporeans are prepared to accept a slowdown of the immigration rate to between 30,000 to 50,000 annually (the WP proposal). They want a sharp drop in economic immigration but are open to immigration based on family ties. They want a rapid build up of infrastructure to cope with the large population increase which has occurred over the past 10 years. Based on the timeline rollout by the PAP, this will take about 10 years. After the infrastructure has been rebuilt to accommodate the larger population, we can then revisit the issue of immigration to help address the issue of our aging population.

If NPTD had done their research properly, they would have been able draft a proper White Paper based on reality rather than fantasy. This is the failing of Ngiam Siew Ling. Incidentally she is a bit of an attention whore ... she is the only NPTD staff on the video NPTD put out (see 0:31). I suppose before it all went bad, that must have seemed like a good idea.

 

[Fook Seng]

what happens if it were to be a continuum? a vision with no end, would they be running in circles?

Then in fact they will have a lot of malleability to mold the rationale to whatever the policy requires.

 

[Rumpole]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

.......................

Shape the question and the forum , shape the answers, a trick as old as time.

Someone somewhere seperately has already decided on a 6.9 million number, the paper was just a means to justify getting there.

Reminds me of one of my favourite comedies "Yes, Prime Minister".

This video shows how survey results can be FIXED by asking the right type of leading questions to get the conclusion that the "independent" surveyor desires.

A trick as old time.

[video=youtube;G0ZZJXw4MTA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA&list=PL8C26DF635F65D8DA[/video]

 

[aurvandil]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

If that was the case, then there was really no need to put up the White Paper. The PAP have been running their open immigration policy for years without putting up any paper or doing any consultation. Why start now?

The reason for the White Paper was because it was noted that there was increasing unhappiness about the FT policy. Consequently, it was felt that there should be some serious research to find out what is the threshold that Singaporeans are comfortable with.

Unfortunately instead of getting views from a representative sample of Singaporeans, NPTD repeatedly selected biased samples. The DPM, Ministers and other PAP notables who attended therefore got the wrong impression that Singaporeans were actually quite ok with the PAP open immigration policy. The unhappiness that flared occasionally online was seen as being a minority view held by those who read SBF, TRE, TOC etc. As they went through one biased FGD after the next, they became increasingly emboldened until they finally got it into their heads that Singaporeans would be ok with that 6.9 million number.

Someone somewhere seperately has already decided on a 6.9 million number, the paper was just a means to justify getting there.

 

[Spock]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

If that was the case, then there was really no need to put up the White Paper. The PAP have been running their open immigration policy for years without putting up any paper or doing any consultation. Why start now?

The reason for the White Paper was because it was noted that there was increasing unhappiness about the FT policy. Consequently, it was felt that there should be some serious research to find out what is the threshold that Singaporeans are comfortable with.

Have you ever talked to someone with a huge ego? He will not accept that you have valid arguments against his point of view. He believes he can convert your thinking with his superior logic. There is no way he will agree to disagree on the issue and accept that there are equally reasonable alternate viewpoints.

This is how PAP has been running the country for decades. They believe that they know what you want better than you yourselves. This is evident from their selection system. Don't expect them to change anytime soon.

Anyway, I think the tide has turned and PAP is heading for a major setback because they are faced with a lose-lose situation. Import foreigners and stir up resentment or restrict immigration which will likely result in some economic stagnation and stirring up resentment too. They have only themselves to blame because they went for the quick and easy way to grow the economy in order to benefit themselves mainly.

 

[scroobal]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

Circa 1991, under GCT, they decided to remove the key demographic data. The country was not aware that the number of residents were increasing. They went all out in the mid 90s. No consultation was done.

With 2011 GE results, they want to show some level of consultation. It was more masa masa rather than with genuine intent. As Spock points out, they know best as they have the best and thus no value contribution is expected from outside. To Locke's point - they reverse engineered and I think the starting premise was the target GDP figures.

They have 17 years and 2 GEs and maybe 3 and its a short time.

It will be interesting to see the outcomes.

If that was the case, then there was really no need to put up the White Paper. The PAP have been running their open immigration policy for years without putting up any paper or doing any consultation. Why start now?
.

 

[aurvandil]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

The removal of the statistics was on the advice of one Paul Cheung. A lot of the unorthdox treatment in our national statistics can be traced back to him.

Circa 1991, under GCT, they decided to remove the key demographic data. The country was not aware that the number of residents were increasing. They went all out in the mid 90s. No consultation was done.

With 2011 GE results, they want to show some level of consultation. It was more masa masa rather than with genuine intent. As Spock points out, they know best as they have the best and thus no value contribution is expected from outside. To Locke's point - they reverse engineered and I think the starting premise was the target GDP figures.

They have 17 years and 2 GEs and maybe 3 and its a short time.

It will be interesting to see the outcomes.

 

[lockeliberal]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

Dear Scroo

They decided on a target GDP and they decided 6.9 million was the figure.

:_))

Locke

Circa 1991, under GCT, they decided to remove the key demographic data. The country was not aware that the number of residents were increasing. They went all out in the mid 90s. No consultation was done.

With 2011 GE results, they want to show some level of consultation. It was more masa masa rather than with genuine intent. As Spock points out, they know best as they have the best and thus no value contribution is expected from outside. To Locke's point - they reverse engineered and I think the starting premise was the target GDP figures.

They have 17 years and 2 GEs and maybe 3 and its a short time.

It will be interesting to see the outcomes.

 

[aurvandil]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

The complete picture is more like this.

Because of past policy failures, the PAP needs GDP growth of 5% to 8% to cover up the various holes. This is only possible with an annual population increase of 120k to 150k per year. This translates to a population of 7.5 million to 8.0 milllion in 2030.

Ever since GE2011, there worrying signs that Singaporeans would not accept a continuation of the FT policy. There was ample feedback from the ground that Singaporeans wanted a large drop in immigration. NPTD was therefore tasked to determine what was the threshold the majority of Singaporeans were prepared to accept.

Instead of conducting the research properly, NPTD picked what can only be described as biased samples. The DPM, Ministers and other PAP notables were exposed to these samples and came away with the misconception that the majority of Singaporeans were OK with their policy. The increasingly frequent flare ups were dismissed as noise.

After 1 year, they became confident enough to publish what they then thought would be a White Paper that would be widely accepted. As an additional safeguard, the decision was made to publish an artifically low number of 6.9 million while internally pursuing a policy that would lead to a population of 7.5 to 8.0 million by 2030.

You should have seen the look on their faces after the White Paper was released.

Dear Scroo

They decided on a target GDP and they decided 6.9 million was the figure.

:_))

Locke

 

[tualingong]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

to support seven millions more infrastructure would need to be build.

will the country finally sink?

 

[zeebjii]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

Hainanese 汉奸 :oIo:

70 years ago the hainanese uncles will drag them out on the street, beat them, put them in gunny sacks and throw them in to the sea.

Put ngiam tong dow and mah bow tan in the sacks too, with lead as leg anchors . They are a disgrace to the hainanese. Fucking traitors!

 

[cass888]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

Usually a person making such a complaint is unable to overcome the logic and wants to elicit some emotional discount in the argument.

Have you ever talked to someone with a huge ego? He will not accept that you have valid arguments against his point of view. He believes he can convert your thinking with his superior logic. There is no way he will agree to disagree on the issue and accept that there are equally reasonable alternate viewpoints.

 

[winnipegjets]

Re: Ngiam Siew Ying - The superscale NPTD Director who wrote the 6.9 million White Pa

Someone somewhere seperately has already decided on a 6.9 million number, the paper was just a means to justify getting there.

Locke

And they did a damn lousy job at it.