I think Sibor increase is in anticipation of Fed rates increase. However, last min CNY devalued and thebincrease got postponed.
pap is going to weaken sgd. expect sibor to spike up more. good luck to the 70% fools.
SINGAPORE: As the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) prepares for its upcoming policy meeting later this month, economists have said they are expecting the central bank to ease its stance, citing faltering global growth and slower employment growth in Singapore as key considerations.
The Singapore economy is expected to grow by between 2 and 2.5 per cent this year, the slowest pace of growth since 2009, when GDP contracted by 0.6 per cent, in the wake of the global financial crisis.
There are more bets on the MAS to ease its exchange-rate based policy. Economists said a weaker Sing dollar could put a floor to export growth and help raise the country's competitiveness vis-a-vis rival exporters in Asia.
Mr Michael Wan, an analyst for Asia Ex-Japan Economics at Credit Suisse, said: “Global demand does explain part of the weakness in the labour market this year, but I would suspect that it is also partly a culmination of the various labour tightening measures that have been taken over the past four to five years.
“It is companies trying to cut back on hiring, cutting back on expanding in the country because they find it more difficult to do business in Singapore. Exchange rate is expensive, making it expensive to do business; labour costs are high, making it more difficult for them to expand."
So far this year, the Sing dollar has fallen 7 per cent against the greenback, but it has strengthened around 15 per cent against regional currencies like the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah.
The MAS largely maintains a policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the Sing dollar. However, based on a Reuters poll, 12 out of 18 analysts are expecting the MAS to ease policy this time round. This can be done by reducing the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate band (Sing NEER), or by lowering the policy band's mid-point.
“We have had our Sing NEER model way back. The assumed 2 per cent appreciation is based on hitting certain productivity targets,” said Mizuho Bank's senior economist, Mr Vishnu Varathan.
“Given that in the last few years this has been a bit of a problem, and also given that that has coincided with very weak global demand, as well as restructuring not only in Singapore but in places like China - that has complicated the policy picture," he noted.
Economists added that core inflation, which is at its lowest level in almost five years, has also given the central bank the policy room to ease, since there is relatively less need to guard against imported inflation by keeping the Sing dollar on a steadily appreciating trend.
The policy meeting is expected to take place early next week.