https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-11-01/doc-ifxeuwwt0071626.shtml
美军或在台海军演中国严阵以待 俄舰队特殊时刻访华
美军或在台海军演中国严阵以待 俄舰队特殊时刻访华
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西北楼船烈焰中：从美舰穿台湾海峡看中国新反航母体系的建立1/5
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10月22日晚上，美国太平洋舰队发言人称两艘美国军舰稍早之前穿越了台湾海峡，并进一步表示，有多艘中国舰艇在“安全距离”上对美舰进行了监视。不仅是舰艇穿越台湾海峡，早前还有传闻称美军将于11月份在台湾海峡举行海上演习。从国际法的角度上来讲，台湾海峡属于中国专属经济区，美舰依法享有航行自由。但从现实情况考虑，美方此举背后的用意也是司马昭之心路人皆知。目前对于美方这些动作，中国方面舰机跟踪驱离的处理手段虽然“专业”，但实际对美军的“吓阻”作用并不算大。想要真正“吓阻”美军，我们还需要活用自身“独步天下”的反舰反航母体系。那么本期《出鞘》我们就来谈谈，中国应该如何利用自身的反舰体系应对美军的这些动作。（查看完整内容搜索微信公众号：sinamilnews）
原标题：美军舰穿越台湾海峡或军演 中国严阵以待 俄罗斯海军一举动引关注
“安提坦”号导弹巡洋舰
10月22日，两艘美国军舰穿越台湾海峡，这是自今年7月后的第二次穿越。短短三个月时间，美国军舰再过台湾海峡在释放什么信号？
美国中期选举将于11月6日登场，接着11月24日台湾“九合一选举”登场。美国有线电视新闻网10月初引述美国数名国防官员的消息称，美国海军建议太平洋舰队11月在南海和台湾海峡附近区域进行为期一周的军演，借此“警告中国”。在此大背景之下，美军舰穿越台湾海峡的动机引发高度关注。对此国防部发言人吴谦表示，中国人民解放军对美舰过航台湾海峡的情况是清楚的，美舰的动向都在我们的掌控之中。
在美舰来台湾海峡的前一天，俄罗斯太平洋舰队舰艇编队抵达中国青岛港口进行访问，舰艇编队包括“瓦良格”号导弹巡洋舰、“潘捷列耶夫海军上将”号大型反潜舰等舰只。俄罗斯军事专家说，在特殊的时刻，俄罗斯海军编队访华是为了向全世界展示两国的友谊和团结。
中央电视台《防务新观察》特约军事问题专家李莉和美国问题专家刁大明就这一话题进行了分析和解读。李莉认为，一方面，美军军舰今年以来已经两次穿越台湾海峡，这个频率反映出美国目前对于台海施加压力的可能性在增大，这个是非常明确的信号。而且这次两艘舰都是老面孔，而它们的任务也并不是仅仅局限于穿越台湾海峡。我们可以回顾一下“威尔伯”导弹驱逐舰。“威尔伯”在2016年的时候曾经以航行自由的名义进入西沙，而“安提坦”号导弹巡洋舰在今年的5月27日刚刚进入到西沙，所以说这两艘舰一个任务区是在南海，另一个任务区实际就是台湾海峡。从这次的行动来看，首先要看到美方在向大陆方面施压，它作为中美贸易摩擦的组合拳，把军事的压力、经济的压力，包括外交的压力统统压在这个方向。
第二个方面，体现出美国目前整个太平洋舰队训练的重心发生了变化，因为这次这两艘舰都隶属于第七舰队，是太平洋舰队的一个分支；另外，它们部署在日本的横须贺，从这个地方出发，通行于台湾海峡是很方便的，所以相当于就近调用，但是9月30日的那艘舰实际上是从第三舰队调过来的，也就是说它相当于整个太平洋舰队所有的力量目前都集中在这个区域。这显然是美国太平洋舰队加大了在这个方向所谓的显示它例行自由通行的非常明确的一个举动。
第三个方面，李莉认为这可能是美国在造势，通过这样一个行动显示力量的决心，就像当年炒作所谓南海“航行自由”一样，它把台湾海峡当做未来所谓自由通行的一个区域。通过炒作出一个话题，然后不断加大这个方向通行的压力，强化它。（文/采薇）
https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-11-01/doc-ifxeuwwt0085752.shtml
西方渲染中美10年内开战 称中国正备战南海台海战争
西方渲染中美10年内开战 称中国正备战南海台海战争
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争雄角力转坤轴：从此次中美军舰“撞击”看两国海军未来战略1/20
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10月1日美国海军学会（USNI）网站爆料，美国海军驱逐舰迪凯特（USS Decatur）于9月30日上午8：30左右，在南薰岛12海里范围内与中国海军驱逐舰发生“近距离接触”。该网站还指出，中美两艘驱逐舰一度仅相距45码（约41米），此后迪凯特舰进行了机动以避免碰撞。10月2日，美国海军方面又公布了当时由美军直升机拍摄的中美驱逐舰“体位”变化图。并进一步指出，此次与美舰进行“友好交流”的是052C型导弹驱逐舰兰州舰。就此，这条消息国外媒体也开始渲染：中美战舰差点发生了撞击。本期《出鞘》我们不妨廓清本次中美战舰“近距离接触”一事，就此谈谈中美两国海军战略现状和未来走向。（查看完整内容搜索微信公众号：sinamilnews）
原标题：外媒臆测中美准备打仗 专家：准备打才可能不必打
[环球时报报道 特约记者 张祥 柳玉鹏 记者 刘扬 ]受贸易战等因素的影响，一些境外媒体和专家近日频频对中美关系做出悲观预测，认为中美间在未来10年爆发战争的可能在逐步增加。中国专家表示，这在相当大程度上是媒体的过度解读和渲染。中美军队内部可能都会频繁提到打仗和准备打仗，但这源于作为军队天生的危机感和紧迫感，并不表示着双方要主动挑起一场对抗。
西方渲染中美“准备打仗”
10月30日，英国《每日快报》刊文“第三次世界大战：美国军方发起‘环球雷霆’核演习，引发紧张局势”。文章称，随着美军方“环球雷霆2019”指挥和控制演习的启动，使国际紧张局势升级。这项年度性训练演习旨在评估美国战略司令部所有任务区域，特别关注西方的核战备，以“遏制、定位、并在必要时避免对美国及其盟国的战略攻击”。来自英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦和韩国的部队人员也参加了今年的演习。美国战略司令部司令海腾说，这些演习将我们独特的能力整合到联合部队中，以阻止战略威胁并捍卫国家安全。
而该网站另一篇题为“第三次世界大战：随着南中国海和台湾紧张局势的升级，中国准备战争”的文章则称，由于中美之间的紧张局势，中国正在为南海和台湾的战争做准备。
美国《国会山报》网站10月30日的文章称，中国是否会试图通过某种先发制人的战争来摆脱美国在亚洲的统治地位，以保证自身在亚洲的主导地位？许多专家认为这并非不可能，并且可能正在增长。美国太平洋舰队前情报总监、美国海军退役军官法奈尔认为，中国未来10年与美国开战的可能性正在增加，因为实现恢复中国领土完整的“中国梦”的时间表正在压缩。
俄媒分析“中美之战”可能性
“今日俄罗斯”电视台10月30日报道称，美国驻欧洲陆军前司令本·霍奇斯在华沙安全论坛期间表示，美国和中国15年后非常有可能因为在太平洋上的利益冲突爆发战争。他称，美国的欧洲盟友将不得不为确保自身安全付出更多努力，因为美国将专注于维护本国在太平洋地区的利益。
俄罗斯《观点报》10月30日以“中美何时开始战争？”为题报道称，美国一些前军方高官和政治分析家们宣称，中美之间正酝酿一场真正的大战。一些美社会学家也认为，美国军方也有这种情绪。在亚太地区美国军力十分强大，要与美国对抗必须拥有强大的经济潜力。
文章称，目前，只有中国拥有这样的经济力量，使其能成为美国唯一真正的对手。在过去30年里，中国经济增长率非常高。同时，中国开始进行军队改革。中国正在建设一支强大的海军。根据美国国会研究部门的数据，2020年前，中国将拥有两艘航母、34艘驱逐舰、58艘护卫舰、30艘轻型护卫舰、64艘常规潜艇、8艘核潜艇、5艘弹道导弹核潜艇和150多艘近海巡逻舰等。而美国现在拥有11艘航母、22艘巡洋舰、65艘驱逐舰、52艘核潜艇、18艘弹道导弹核潜艇和近100艘巡逻舰和辅助船只。从舰队规模来看，美国海军拥有绝对优势，但中国增长速度远超美国。中国海军的大部分舰只都是在过去十年建造的，而一些美国舰只则大都是在几十年前或更长时间以前建造的。
俄媒认为，中国海军发展仍需要一个很长的时期。不应相信一些美国官员和专家预测中美之间在不久的将来将发生战争的说法。再过20-30年，当中国更强大一些，这种情况将变得更有可能。
属于过度渲染
一位不愿透露姓名的中国军事专家对《环球时报》记者表示，关于“中美必有一战”的报道多是出于西方媒体的夸张与渲染，比如英国《每日快报》近来连续推出多篇以“第三次世界大战”为题的文章，将中美俄几乎所有军事领域的活动都贴上“第三次世界大战”的标签，例如，将升级版F-16V交付台湾、中国领导人视察南部战区、中俄发展高超音速飞行器等事件都和“第三次世界大战”联系起来，显然是想博人眼球。
专家表示，还有一些分析有过度解读之嫌，例如，中国从未提出要在2049年前武力收回“争议领土”。另外也不排除东西方文化差异对中国的误读。中国军队近年来确实提出要按打仗的标准进行军事训练，强调了一些关于“打仗”的要求，但这绝非说中国要准备主动和某国打一场大战，而是要求部队严格训练，防范强加于我们的战争，因为只有“准备打才可能不必打”。
尽管西方媒体大肆渲染中美大战，不过美国公众似乎并不相信这一点。《国会山报》网站报道称，大多数美国人并不认为亚洲超级大国的崛起是一种威胁，至少目前如此。芝加哥全球事务委员会最近的民意调查发现，只有40%的美国人认为“中国作为世界大国的发展是对美国重大利益的重大威胁”。该组织早些时候进行的民意调查发现，更多美国人认为两国“更倾向于合作伙伴”，而非“更倾向于竞争对手”。
Https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-11-01/doc-ifxeuwwt0071626.shtml
The US military or the Taiwan navy plays China’s rigorous wait for the Russian fleet to visit China at a special moment.
The US military or the Taiwan navy plays China’s rigorous wait for the Russian fleet to visit China at a special moment.
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In the flames of the northwestern building ship: Seeing the establishment of China's new anti-aircraft carrier system from the US ship wearing the Taiwan Strait 1/5
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On the evening of October 22, a spokesman for the US Pacific Fleet said that two US warships crossed the Taiwan Strait earlier, and further stated that many Chinese ships were monitoring the US ships at a "safe distance." Not only is the ship crossing the Taiwan Strait, but there have been rumors that the US military will hold a sea exercise in the Taiwan Strait in November. From the perspective of international law, the Taiwan Strait belongs to China's exclusive economic zone, and the US ship enjoys freedom of navigation according to law. However, considering the reality, the intention behind the US move is also known to Sima Zhao. At present, for the US actions, although the handling methods for tracking and disembarking the Chinese aircraft are "professional", the actual "deterrence" effect on the US military is not large. In order to truly "scare" the US military, we also need to use our own "one-step world" anti-ship anti-aircraft carrier system. So in this issue of "Sheathing", let's talk about how China should use its anti-ship system to deal with these actions of the US military. (View full content search WeChat public number: sinamilnews)
Original title: US warships cross the Taiwan Strait or military exercises China is waiting for the Russian Navy to take attention
"Antitan" missile cruiser "Antitan" missile cruiser
On October 22, two US warships crossed the Taiwan Strait, the second crossing since July this year. In just three months, what signal is the US warship releasing in the Taiwan Strait?
The US mid-term election will debut on November 6, followed by Taiwan’s "Nine-in-One Election" on November 24. CNN quoted several US defense officials in early October as saying that the US Navy suggested that the Pacific Fleet conduct a one-week military exercise in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait in November to "warn China." In this context, the motives of US warships crossing the Taiwan Strait have caused great concern. The Ministry of National Defense spokesman Wu Qian said that the Chinese People's Liberation Army is clear about the US ship's voyage to the Taiwan Strait. The movement of the US ship is under our control.
The day before the US ship came to the Taiwan Strait, the Russian Pacific Fleet fleet arrived at the Qingdao port of China for a visit. The fleet consisted of the "Varyag" missile cruiser and the "Anti-submarine warship" such as the Admiral Pantierreyev. . Russian military experts said that at a special moment, the Russian naval formations visited China to show the friendship and solidarity of the two countries to the world.
Li Li, a special military expert on CCTV's "New Defense Observations", and Yan Daming, an expert on American issues, analyzed and interpreted this topic. Li Li believes that on the one hand, US warships have crossed the Taiwan Strait twice this year. This frequency reflects the increasing possibility that the United States is currently exerting pressure on the Taiwan Strait. This is a very clear signal. And this time the two ships are old faces, and their mission is not limited to crossing the Taiwan Strait. We can look back at the "Wilbur" guided missile destroyer. "Wilber" entered Xisha in the name of freedom of navigation in 2016, and the "Antitan" missile cruiser just entered Xisha on May 27 this year, so the two missions are In the South China Sea, another mission area is actually the Taiwan Strait. Judging from this action, we must first see that the US is exerting pressure on the mainland. As a combination of Sino-US trade frictions, it puts military pressure and economic pressure, including diplomatic pressure, in this direction.
The second aspect shows that the focus of the current US Pacific Fleet training has changed, because both ships belong to the Seventh Fleet and are a branch of the Pacific Fleet; in addition, they are deployed in Yokosuka, Japan. It is very convenient to go to the Taiwan Strait, so it is equivalent to calling nearby, but the ship on September 30 was actually transferred from the Third Fleet, which means it is equivalent to the entire Pacific Fleet. Power is currently concentrated in this area. This is clearly a very clear move by the US Pacific Fleet to increase the so-called free passage in this direction.
In the third aspect, Li Li thinks that this may be the determination of the United States to show power through such an action. Just like the so-called "freedom of navigation" in the South China Sea, it used the Taiwan Strait as an area of the so-called free passage in the future. Make a topic through speculation, and then continue to increase the pressure of this direction to strengthen it. (Text / Cai Wei)
Https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-11-01/doc-ifxeuwwt0085752.shtml
Western rendering of China and the United States in 10 years of war, saying that China is preparing for the South China Sea Taiwan Strait War
Western rendering of China and the United States in 10 years of war, saying that China is preparing for the South China Sea Taiwan Strait War
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Struggling to turn the Kun axis: From the "impact" of the Sino-US warships, see the future strategy of the two navies 1/20
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On October 1st, the US Navy Society (USNI) website broke the news that the US Navy destroyer USS Decatur was in close contact with the Chinese naval destroyer within 12 nautical miles of Nanxun Island at around 8:30 am on September 30. ". The site also pointed out that the two Chinese and American destroyers were only 45 yards (about 41 meters) apart, and the Decatur ship was maneuvered to avoid collision. On October 2, the US Navy announced the change of the "post position" of the Chinese and American destroyers photographed by US military helicopters. It is further pointed out that the "friendly exchange" with the US ship is the Lanzhou ship of the 052C guided missile destroyer. In this regard, the foreign media of this news also began to render: the Chinese and American warships almost hit. In this issue of "Sheathing", we may wish to clarify the "close contact" between the Chinese and American warships, and talk about the current status and future direction of the naval strategy between China and the United States. (View full content search WeChat public number: sinamilnews)
Original title: Foreign media speculates that China and the United States are ready to fight. Experts:
[Global Times reported that special correspondent Zhang Xiang Liu Yupeng reporter Liu Yang] Due to factors such as trade wars, some foreign media and experts have recently made pessimistic predictions on Sino-US relations, arguing that the possibility of war between China and the United States in the next 10 years is Gradually increase. Chinese experts say that this is largely an over-interpretation and rendering of the media. Both Chinese and American troops may frequently mention war and prepare for war, but this stems from the inherent sense of crisis and urgency of the military. It does not mean that the two sides should take the initiative to provoke a confrontation.
Western rendering of China and the United States "ready to fight"
On October 30th, the British "Daily Express" published "The Third World War: The US military launched the 'Global Thunder' nuclear exercise, causing tension." The article said that with the launch of the US military "Global Thunder 2019" command and control exercises, the international tensions escalated. This annual training exercise is designed to assess all mission areas of the US Strategic Command, with a particular focus on Western nuclear readiness to "prevent, locate, and, if necessary, avoid strategic attacks on the United States and its allies." Troops from the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Denmark and South Korea also participated in this year's exercise. Commander Hai Teng of US Strategic Command said that these exercises integrate our unique capabilities into joint forces to stop strategic threats and defend national security.
Another article on the website titled "World War III: With the escalation of tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan, China prepares for war," said that due to tensions between China and the United States, China is working for the South China Sea and Prepare for the war in Taiwan.
An article on the October 30 issue of the US Capitol Hill website said that China will try to get rid of the US's dominance in Asia through a pre-emptive war to ensure its dominant position in Asia. Many experts believe that this is not impossible and may be growing. The former US Pacific Fleet Intelligence Director and US Navy retired military officer Farnell believes that China's possibility of starting a war with the United States in the next 10 years is increasing because the timetable for realizing the "Chinese Dream" to restore China's territorial integrity is being compressed.
Russian media analyzes the possibility of "the battle between China and the United States"
"Russia Today" TV station reported on October 30 that the former US Army Commander Ben Hodges said during the Warsaw Security Forum that the United States and China are very likely to have a war after 15 years of conflict of interest in the Pacific. He said that the US allies in the United States will have to work harder to ensure their own security, because the United States will focus on maintaining its interests in the Pacific.
On October 30th, Russia’s “Viewpoint” reported that “When did China and the United States start the war?”, some former US military officials and political analysts claimed that China and the United States are brewing a real war. Some American sociologists also believe that the US military also has this sentiment. In the Asia-Pacific region, the US military is very strong, and it must have strong economic potential to confront the United States.
The article said that at present, only China has such economic power, making it the only real opponent in the United States. In the past 30 years, China’s economic growth rate has been very high. At the same time, China began to carry out military reforms. China is building a strong navy. According to data from the US Congressional Research Department, China will have two aircraft carriers, 34 destroyers, 58 frigates, 30 light frigates, 64 conventional submarines, 8 nuclear submarines, 5 ballistic missile submarines and more than 150 ships by 2020. Offshore patrol ships, etc. The United States now has 11 aircraft carriers, 22 cruisers, 65 destroyers, 52 nuclear submarines, 18 ballistic missile submarines and nearly 100 patrol ships and auxiliary vessels. From the perspective of fleet size, the US Navy has an absolute advantage, but China's growth rate far exceeds that of the United States. Most of the ships of the Chinese Navy were built in the past decade, and some American ships were built mostly decades ago or longer.
Russian media believe that the development of the Chinese navy still needs a long period of time. It should not be believed that some US officials and experts predict that there will be war between China and the United States in the near future. In the next 20-30 years, when China is stronger, this situation will become more likely.
Overextended
A Chinese military expert who did not want to be named told the Global Times reporter that the reports on "China and the United States must have a battle" are mostly exaggerated and rendered by Western media. For example, the British "Daily Express" has recently launched more and more. The article titled "The Third World War" puts the activities of almost all military fields in China, the United States and Russia on the label of "World War III". For example, the upgraded version of the F-16V is delivered to Taiwan and China. People inspecting the southern theater, Sino-Russian development of hypersonic vehicles and other events are linked to the "World War III", apparently want to be eye-catching.
Experts said that there are still some analyses that are over-interpreted. For example, China has never proposed to withdraw the "controversial territory" by 2049. In addition, it does not rule out the misunderstanding of the cultural differences between the East and the West. In recent years, the Chinese military has indeed proposed to conduct military training according to the standards of war. It emphasizes some requirements for "snoring", but this is not to say that China is prepared to take the initiative to fight a war with a certain country. Instead, it requires the troops to be strictly trained to prevent imposing In our war, because only "prepare to play can not have to fight."
Although the Western media has made a big splash in the Sino-US war, the American public does not seem to believe this. The Capitol Hill website reported that most Americans do not believe that the rise of Asian superpowers is a threat, at least for now. A recent poll by the Chicago Board of Global Affairs found that only 40% of Americans believe that "China's development as a world power is a major threat to the US's vital interests." An opinion poll conducted by the organization earlier found that more Americans believe that the two countries are “more inclined to partners” rather than “more inclined to competitors”.
美军或在台海军演中国严阵以待 俄舰队特殊时刻访华
美军或在台海军演中国严阵以待 俄舰队特殊时刻访华
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西北楼船烈焰中：从美舰穿台湾海峡看中国新反航母体系的建立1/5
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10月22日晚上，美国太平洋舰队发言人称两艘美国军舰稍早之前穿越了台湾海峡，并进一步表示，有多艘中国舰艇在“安全距离”上对美舰进行了监视。不仅是舰艇穿越台湾海峡，早前还有传闻称美军将于11月份在台湾海峡举行海上演习。从国际法的角度上来讲，台湾海峡属于中国专属经济区，美舰依法享有航行自由。但从现实情况考虑，美方此举背后的用意也是司马昭之心路人皆知。目前对于美方这些动作，中国方面舰机跟踪驱离的处理手段虽然“专业”，但实际对美军的“吓阻”作用并不算大。想要真正“吓阻”美军，我们还需要活用自身“独步天下”的反舰反航母体系。那么本期《出鞘》我们就来谈谈，中国应该如何利用自身的反舰体系应对美军的这些动作。（查看完整内容搜索微信公众号：sinamilnews）
原标题：美军舰穿越台湾海峡或军演 中国严阵以待 俄罗斯海军一举动引关注
10月22日，两艘美国军舰穿越台湾海峡，这是自今年7月后的第二次穿越。短短三个月时间，美国军舰再过台湾海峡在释放什么信号？
美国中期选举将于11月6日登场，接着11月24日台湾“九合一选举”登场。美国有线电视新闻网10月初引述美国数名国防官员的消息称，美国海军建议太平洋舰队11月在南海和台湾海峡附近区域进行为期一周的军演，借此“警告中国”。在此大背景之下，美军舰穿越台湾海峡的动机引发高度关注。对此国防部发言人吴谦表示，中国人民解放军对美舰过航台湾海峡的情况是清楚的，美舰的动向都在我们的掌控之中。
在美舰来台湾海峡的前一天，俄罗斯太平洋舰队舰艇编队抵达中国青岛港口进行访问，舰艇编队包括“瓦良格”号导弹巡洋舰、“潘捷列耶夫海军上将”号大型反潜舰等舰只。俄罗斯军事专家说，在特殊的时刻，俄罗斯海军编队访华是为了向全世界展示两国的友谊和团结。
中央电视台《防务新观察》特约军事问题专家李莉和美国问题专家刁大明就这一话题进行了分析和解读。李莉认为，一方面，美军军舰今年以来已经两次穿越台湾海峡，这个频率反映出美国目前对于台海施加压力的可能性在增大，这个是非常明确的信号。而且这次两艘舰都是老面孔，而它们的任务也并不是仅仅局限于穿越台湾海峡。我们可以回顾一下“威尔伯”导弹驱逐舰。“威尔伯”在2016年的时候曾经以航行自由的名义进入西沙，而“安提坦”号导弹巡洋舰在今年的5月27日刚刚进入到西沙，所以说这两艘舰一个任务区是在南海，另一个任务区实际就是台湾海峡。从这次的行动来看，首先要看到美方在向大陆方面施压，它作为中美贸易摩擦的组合拳，把军事的压力、经济的压力，包括外交的压力统统压在这个方向。
第二个方面，体现出美国目前整个太平洋舰队训练的重心发生了变化，因为这次这两艘舰都隶属于第七舰队，是太平洋舰队的一个分支；另外，它们部署在日本的横须贺，从这个地方出发，通行于台湾海峡是很方便的，所以相当于就近调用，但是9月30日的那艘舰实际上是从第三舰队调过来的，也就是说它相当于整个太平洋舰队所有的力量目前都集中在这个区域。这显然是美国太平洋舰队加大了在这个方向所谓的显示它例行自由通行的非常明确的一个举动。
第三个方面，李莉认为这可能是美国在造势，通过这样一个行动显示力量的决心，就像当年炒作所谓南海“航行自由”一样，它把台湾海峡当做未来所谓自由通行的一个区域。通过炒作出一个话题，然后不断加大这个方向通行的压力，强化它。（文/采薇）
https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-11-01/doc-ifxeuwwt0085752.shtml
西方渲染中美10年内开战 称中国正备战南海台海战争
西方渲染中美10年内开战 称中国正备战南海台海战争
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争雄角力转坤轴：从此次中美军舰“撞击”看两国海军未来战略1/20
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10月1日美国海军学会（USNI）网站爆料，美国海军驱逐舰迪凯特（USS Decatur）于9月30日上午8：30左右，在南薰岛12海里范围内与中国海军驱逐舰发生“近距离接触”。该网站还指出，中美两艘驱逐舰一度仅相距45码（约41米），此后迪凯特舰进行了机动以避免碰撞。10月2日，美国海军方面又公布了当时由美军直升机拍摄的中美驱逐舰“体位”变化图。并进一步指出，此次与美舰进行“友好交流”的是052C型导弹驱逐舰兰州舰。就此，这条消息国外媒体也开始渲染：中美战舰差点发生了撞击。本期《出鞘》我们不妨廓清本次中美战舰“近距离接触”一事，就此谈谈中美两国海军战略现状和未来走向。（查看完整内容搜索微信公众号：sinamilnews）
原标题：外媒臆测中美准备打仗 专家：准备打才可能不必打
[环球时报报道 特约记者 张祥 柳玉鹏 记者 刘扬 ]受贸易战等因素的影响，一些境外媒体和专家近日频频对中美关系做出悲观预测，认为中美间在未来10年爆发战争的可能在逐步增加。中国专家表示，这在相当大程度上是媒体的过度解读和渲染。中美军队内部可能都会频繁提到打仗和准备打仗，但这源于作为军队天生的危机感和紧迫感，并不表示着双方要主动挑起一场对抗。
西方渲染中美“准备打仗”
10月30日，英国《每日快报》刊文“第三次世界大战：美国军方发起‘环球雷霆’核演习，引发紧张局势”。文章称，随着美军方“环球雷霆2019”指挥和控制演习的启动，使国际紧张局势升级。这项年度性训练演习旨在评估美国战略司令部所有任务区域，特别关注西方的核战备，以“遏制、定位、并在必要时避免对美国及其盟国的战略攻击”。来自英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦和韩国的部队人员也参加了今年的演习。美国战略司令部司令海腾说，这些演习将我们独特的能力整合到联合部队中，以阻止战略威胁并捍卫国家安全。
而该网站另一篇题为“第三次世界大战：随着南中国海和台湾紧张局势的升级，中国准备战争”的文章则称，由于中美之间的紧张局势，中国正在为南海和台湾的战争做准备。
美国《国会山报》网站10月30日的文章称，中国是否会试图通过某种先发制人的战争来摆脱美国在亚洲的统治地位，以保证自身在亚洲的主导地位？许多专家认为这并非不可能，并且可能正在增长。美国太平洋舰队前情报总监、美国海军退役军官法奈尔认为，中国未来10年与美国开战的可能性正在增加，因为实现恢复中国领土完整的“中国梦”的时间表正在压缩。
俄媒分析“中美之战”可能性
“今日俄罗斯”电视台10月30日报道称，美国驻欧洲陆军前司令本·霍奇斯在华沙安全论坛期间表示，美国和中国15年后非常有可能因为在太平洋上的利益冲突爆发战争。他称，美国的欧洲盟友将不得不为确保自身安全付出更多努力，因为美国将专注于维护本国在太平洋地区的利益。
俄罗斯《观点报》10月30日以“中美何时开始战争？”为题报道称，美国一些前军方高官和政治分析家们宣称，中美之间正酝酿一场真正的大战。一些美社会学家也认为，美国军方也有这种情绪。在亚太地区美国军力十分强大，要与美国对抗必须拥有强大的经济潜力。
文章称，目前，只有中国拥有这样的经济力量，使其能成为美国唯一真正的对手。在过去30年里，中国经济增长率非常高。同时，中国开始进行军队改革。中国正在建设一支强大的海军。根据美国国会研究部门的数据，2020年前，中国将拥有两艘航母、34艘驱逐舰、58艘护卫舰、30艘轻型护卫舰、64艘常规潜艇、8艘核潜艇、5艘弹道导弹核潜艇和150多艘近海巡逻舰等。而美国现在拥有11艘航母、22艘巡洋舰、65艘驱逐舰、52艘核潜艇、18艘弹道导弹核潜艇和近100艘巡逻舰和辅助船只。从舰队规模来看，美国海军拥有绝对优势，但中国增长速度远超美国。中国海军的大部分舰只都是在过去十年建造的，而一些美国舰只则大都是在几十年前或更长时间以前建造的。
俄媒认为，中国海军发展仍需要一个很长的时期。不应相信一些美国官员和专家预测中美之间在不久的将来将发生战争的说法。再过20-30年，当中国更强大一些，这种情况将变得更有可能。
属于过度渲染
一位不愿透露姓名的中国军事专家对《环球时报》记者表示，关于“中美必有一战”的报道多是出于西方媒体的夸张与渲染，比如英国《每日快报》近来连续推出多篇以“第三次世界大战”为题的文章，将中美俄几乎所有军事领域的活动都贴上“第三次世界大战”的标签，例如，将升级版F-16V交付台湾、中国领导人视察南部战区、中俄发展高超音速飞行器等事件都和“第三次世界大战”联系起来，显然是想博人眼球。
专家表示，还有一些分析有过度解读之嫌，例如，中国从未提出要在2049年前武力收回“争议领土”。另外也不排除东西方文化差异对中国的误读。中国军队近年来确实提出要按打仗的标准进行军事训练，强调了一些关于“打仗”的要求，但这绝非说中国要准备主动和某国打一场大战，而是要求部队严格训练，防范强加于我们的战争，因为只有“准备打才可能不必打”。
尽管西方媒体大肆渲染中美大战，不过美国公众似乎并不相信这一点。《国会山报》网站报道称，大多数美国人并不认为亚洲超级大国的崛起是一种威胁，至少目前如此。芝加哥全球事务委员会最近的民意调查发现，只有40%的美国人认为“中国作为世界大国的发展是对美国重大利益的重大威胁”。该组织早些时候进行的民意调查发现，更多美国人认为两国“更倾向于合作伙伴”，而非“更倾向于竞争对手”。
Https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-11-01/doc-ifxeuwwt0071626.shtml
The US military or the Taiwan navy plays China’s rigorous wait for the Russian fleet to visit China at a special moment.
The US military or the Taiwan navy plays China’s rigorous wait for the Russian fleet to visit China at a special moment.
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In the flames of the northwestern building ship: Seeing the establishment of China's new anti-aircraft carrier system from the US ship wearing the Taiwan Strait 1/5
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On the evening of October 22, a spokesman for the US Pacific Fleet said that two US warships crossed the Taiwan Strait earlier, and further stated that many Chinese ships were monitoring the US ships at a "safe distance." Not only is the ship crossing the Taiwan Strait, but there have been rumors that the US military will hold a sea exercise in the Taiwan Strait in November. From the perspective of international law, the Taiwan Strait belongs to China's exclusive economic zone, and the US ship enjoys freedom of navigation according to law. However, considering the reality, the intention behind the US move is also known to Sima Zhao. At present, for the US actions, although the handling methods for tracking and disembarking the Chinese aircraft are "professional", the actual "deterrence" effect on the US military is not large. In order to truly "scare" the US military, we also need to use our own "one-step world" anti-ship anti-aircraft carrier system. So in this issue of "Sheathing", let's talk about how China should use its anti-ship system to deal with these actions of the US military. (View full content search WeChat public number: sinamilnews)
Original title: US warships cross the Taiwan Strait or military exercises China is waiting for the Russian Navy to take attention
"Antitan" missile cruiser "Antitan" missile cruiser
On October 22, two US warships crossed the Taiwan Strait, the second crossing since July this year. In just three months, what signal is the US warship releasing in the Taiwan Strait?
The US mid-term election will debut on November 6, followed by Taiwan’s "Nine-in-One Election" on November 24. CNN quoted several US defense officials in early October as saying that the US Navy suggested that the Pacific Fleet conduct a one-week military exercise in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait in November to "warn China." In this context, the motives of US warships crossing the Taiwan Strait have caused great concern. The Ministry of National Defense spokesman Wu Qian said that the Chinese People's Liberation Army is clear about the US ship's voyage to the Taiwan Strait. The movement of the US ship is under our control.
The day before the US ship came to the Taiwan Strait, the Russian Pacific Fleet fleet arrived at the Qingdao port of China for a visit. The fleet consisted of the "Varyag" missile cruiser and the "Anti-submarine warship" such as the Admiral Pantierreyev. . Russian military experts said that at a special moment, the Russian naval formations visited China to show the friendship and solidarity of the two countries to the world.
Li Li, a special military expert on CCTV's "New Defense Observations", and Yan Daming, an expert on American issues, analyzed and interpreted this topic. Li Li believes that on the one hand, US warships have crossed the Taiwan Strait twice this year. This frequency reflects the increasing possibility that the United States is currently exerting pressure on the Taiwan Strait. This is a very clear signal. And this time the two ships are old faces, and their mission is not limited to crossing the Taiwan Strait. We can look back at the "Wilbur" guided missile destroyer. "Wilber" entered Xisha in the name of freedom of navigation in 2016, and the "Antitan" missile cruiser just entered Xisha on May 27 this year, so the two missions are In the South China Sea, another mission area is actually the Taiwan Strait. Judging from this action, we must first see that the US is exerting pressure on the mainland. As a combination of Sino-US trade frictions, it puts military pressure and economic pressure, including diplomatic pressure, in this direction.
The second aspect shows that the focus of the current US Pacific Fleet training has changed, because both ships belong to the Seventh Fleet and are a branch of the Pacific Fleet; in addition, they are deployed in Yokosuka, Japan. It is very convenient to go to the Taiwan Strait, so it is equivalent to calling nearby, but the ship on September 30 was actually transferred from the Third Fleet, which means it is equivalent to the entire Pacific Fleet. Power is currently concentrated in this area. This is clearly a very clear move by the US Pacific Fleet to increase the so-called free passage in this direction.
In the third aspect, Li Li thinks that this may be the determination of the United States to show power through such an action. Just like the so-called "freedom of navigation" in the South China Sea, it used the Taiwan Strait as an area of the so-called free passage in the future. Make a topic through speculation, and then continue to increase the pressure of this direction to strengthen it. (Text / Cai Wei)
Https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-11-01/doc-ifxeuwwt0085752.shtml
Western rendering of China and the United States in 10 years of war, saying that China is preparing for the South China Sea Taiwan Strait War
Western rendering of China and the United States in 10 years of war, saying that China is preparing for the South China Sea Taiwan Strait War
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Struggling to turn the Kun axis: From the "impact" of the Sino-US warships, see the future strategy of the two navies 1/20
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On October 1st, the US Navy Society (USNI) website broke the news that the US Navy destroyer USS Decatur was in close contact with the Chinese naval destroyer within 12 nautical miles of Nanxun Island at around 8:30 am on September 30. ". The site also pointed out that the two Chinese and American destroyers were only 45 yards (about 41 meters) apart, and the Decatur ship was maneuvered to avoid collision. On October 2, the US Navy announced the change of the "post position" of the Chinese and American destroyers photographed by US military helicopters. It is further pointed out that the "friendly exchange" with the US ship is the Lanzhou ship of the 052C guided missile destroyer. In this regard, the foreign media of this news also began to render: the Chinese and American warships almost hit. In this issue of "Sheathing", we may wish to clarify the "close contact" between the Chinese and American warships, and talk about the current status and future direction of the naval strategy between China and the United States. (View full content search WeChat public number: sinamilnews)
Original title: Foreign media speculates that China and the United States are ready to fight. Experts:
[Global Times reported that special correspondent Zhang Xiang Liu Yupeng reporter Liu Yang] Due to factors such as trade wars, some foreign media and experts have recently made pessimistic predictions on Sino-US relations, arguing that the possibility of war between China and the United States in the next 10 years is Gradually increase. Chinese experts say that this is largely an over-interpretation and rendering of the media. Both Chinese and American troops may frequently mention war and prepare for war, but this stems from the inherent sense of crisis and urgency of the military. It does not mean that the two sides should take the initiative to provoke a confrontation.
Western rendering of China and the United States "ready to fight"
On October 30th, the British "Daily Express" published "The Third World War: The US military launched the 'Global Thunder' nuclear exercise, causing tension." The article said that with the launch of the US military "Global Thunder 2019" command and control exercises, the international tensions escalated. This annual training exercise is designed to assess all mission areas of the US Strategic Command, with a particular focus on Western nuclear readiness to "prevent, locate, and, if necessary, avoid strategic attacks on the United States and its allies." Troops from the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Denmark and South Korea also participated in this year's exercise. Commander Hai Teng of US Strategic Command said that these exercises integrate our unique capabilities into joint forces to stop strategic threats and defend national security.
Another article on the website titled "World War III: With the escalation of tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan, China prepares for war," said that due to tensions between China and the United States, China is working for the South China Sea and Prepare for the war in Taiwan.
An article on the October 30 issue of the US Capitol Hill website said that China will try to get rid of the US's dominance in Asia through a pre-emptive war to ensure its dominant position in Asia. Many experts believe that this is not impossible and may be growing. The former US Pacific Fleet Intelligence Director and US Navy retired military officer Farnell believes that China's possibility of starting a war with the United States in the next 10 years is increasing because the timetable for realizing the "Chinese Dream" to restore China's territorial integrity is being compressed.
Russian media analyzes the possibility of "the battle between China and the United States"
"Russia Today" TV station reported on October 30 that the former US Army Commander Ben Hodges said during the Warsaw Security Forum that the United States and China are very likely to have a war after 15 years of conflict of interest in the Pacific. He said that the US allies in the United States will have to work harder to ensure their own security, because the United States will focus on maintaining its interests in the Pacific.
On October 30th, Russia’s “Viewpoint” reported that “When did China and the United States start the war?”, some former US military officials and political analysts claimed that China and the United States are brewing a real war. Some American sociologists also believe that the US military also has this sentiment. In the Asia-Pacific region, the US military is very strong, and it must have strong economic potential to confront the United States.
The article said that at present, only China has such economic power, making it the only real opponent in the United States. In the past 30 years, China’s economic growth rate has been very high. At the same time, China began to carry out military reforms. China is building a strong navy. According to data from the US Congressional Research Department, China will have two aircraft carriers, 34 destroyers, 58 frigates, 30 light frigates, 64 conventional submarines, 8 nuclear submarines, 5 ballistic missile submarines and more than 150 ships by 2020. Offshore patrol ships, etc. The United States now has 11 aircraft carriers, 22 cruisers, 65 destroyers, 52 nuclear submarines, 18 ballistic missile submarines and nearly 100 patrol ships and auxiliary vessels. From the perspective of fleet size, the US Navy has an absolute advantage, but China's growth rate far exceeds that of the United States. Most of the ships of the Chinese Navy were built in the past decade, and some American ships were built mostly decades ago or longer.
Russian media believe that the development of the Chinese navy still needs a long period of time. It should not be believed that some US officials and experts predict that there will be war between China and the United States in the near future. In the next 20-30 years, when China is stronger, this situation will become more likely.
Overextended
A Chinese military expert who did not want to be named told the Global Times reporter that the reports on "China and the United States must have a battle" are mostly exaggerated and rendered by Western media. For example, the British "Daily Express" has recently launched more and more. The article titled "The Third World War" puts the activities of almost all military fields in China, the United States and Russia on the label of "World War III". For example, the upgraded version of the F-16V is delivered to Taiwan and China. People inspecting the southern theater, Sino-Russian development of hypersonic vehicles and other events are linked to the "World War III", apparently want to be eye-catching.
Experts said that there are still some analyses that are over-interpreted. For example, China has never proposed to withdraw the "controversial territory" by 2049. In addition, it does not rule out the misunderstanding of the cultural differences between the East and the West. In recent years, the Chinese military has indeed proposed to conduct military training according to the standards of war. It emphasizes some requirements for "snoring", but this is not to say that China is prepared to take the initiative to fight a war with a certain country. Instead, it requires the troops to be strictly trained to prevent imposing In our war, because only "prepare to play can not have to fight."
Although the Western media has made a big splash in the Sino-US war, the American public does not seem to believe this. The Capitol Hill website reported that most Americans do not believe that the rise of Asian superpowers is a threat, at least for now. A recent poll by the Chicago Board of Global Affairs found that only 40% of Americans believe that "China's development as a world power is a major threat to the US's vital interests." An opinion poll conducted by the organization earlier found that more Americans believe that the two countries are “more inclined to partners” rather than “more inclined to competitors”.
