Bookies' Odds

[Charlie99]

In the next post, I will paste the e-mail which I received from a friend in Singapore, who received it last weekend.

 

[Charlie99]

I believe that the bookies may be too optimistic vis-a-vis the chances of the opposition.

The following is a summary of bookies' call on GE2011.

GRCs:
2 WP
1SPP
1 SDP
4 Total (12 seats)

SMCs:
2 WP
1 NSP
3 Total (3 seats)

Opposition MPs:
17 out of 87 in the House (19.5%)
________________________

This morning, the bookies changed the odds for the PAP’s overall margin. They reduced the odds from 3:1 to 2:1 for a win below 60%. So they will pay only $2 instead of $3.

Who’s standing where in GE 2011
April 28th, 2011 | Author: Contributions
Updated as of 28 April 2010

Constituency
No of voters
PAP
Barisan Rakyat
Our prediction

Aljunied 143,148
George Yeo, Lim Hwee Hua, Zainal Abidin, Cynthia Phua, Ong Ye Kung

Low Thia Kiang (WP), Sylvia Lim, Chen Show Mao, Faisal Abdul Manap, Pritnam Singh

WP to win by at least 55 percent

Ang Mo Kio 179,071
Lee Hsien Loong, Yeo Guat Kwang, Ang Hin Kee, Inderjit Singh, Seng Han Thong, Intan Azura

Tan Zhixiang (RP), Lim Tung Hee, Vignes Ramachandran, Lim Zi Rui, Mansor Rahman Osman Sulaiman

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

Bukit Panjang 33,053
Teo Ho Pin vs Alec Tok (RP)
PAP to win by more than 60 percent

Bishan-Toa Payoh 122,492
Wong Kan Seng, Ng Eng Hen, Zainudin Nordin, Hri Kumar Nair, Josephine Teo

Chiam See Tong (SPP), Mohd Hamim, Benjamin Pwee, Wilfred Leung, Lee Yeong Wee

SPP to sneak through by more than 50 percent

Choa Chu Kang 158,648
Gan Kim Yong, Zaqy Mohamad, Alvin Yeo, Low Yen Ling, Alex Yam

Sebastian Teo (NSP), Tony Tan Lay Thiam, Hazel Poa, Nor Lella, Jesilan Sivalingam

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

East Coast 120,324
Lim Swee Say, Raymond Lim, Lee Yi Shyan, Maliki Osman, Jessica Tan

Glenda Han (WP), Gerald Giam, Mohamad Fazli, Eric Tan, Png Eng Huat

PAP to win by more than 60 percent

Hougang 24,560
Desmond Choo vs Yaw Shin Leong (WP)

WP to sneak through by more than 50 percent

Hong Kah North 27,701
Amy Khor vs Sin Kek Tong (SPP)

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

Holland-Bukit Timah 91,067
Vivian Balakrishnan, Christopher De Souza, Liang Eng Hwa, Sim Ann

Vincent Wijeysingha (SDP), Tan Jee Say, Ang Yong Guan, Michelle Lee

SDP to sneak through by more than 50 percent

Joo Chiat 22,069
Charles Chong vs Yee Jenn Jong

WP to sneak through by more than 50 percent

Jurong 125,276
Ong Kim Huat, Halimah Yacob, Tharman, Ang Wei Neng, Desmond Lee

Christopher Neo (NSP), Elvin Ong, Abdul Rasheed Noraini Yunus, Ong Hock Siong

PAP to win by more than 60 percent

Marine Parade 154,451
Goh Chok Tong, Seah Kian Peng, Fatimah Lateef, Tan Chuan Jin, Tin Pei Ling

Cheo Chai Chen (NSP), Nicole Seah, Abdul Salim, Ng Chung Hon, Yeo Tiong Boon

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

Mountbatten 23,371
Lim Biow Chuan vs Jeanette Aruldoss (NSP)

NSP to sneak through by more than 50 percent

Moulmein-Kallang 87,595
Yaacob Ibrahim, Lui Tuck Yew, Denise Phua, Edwin Tong

Mohd Rahizan (WP), Toh Hong Boon, L Somasundaram, Frieda Chan

PAP to win by more than 60 percent

Nee Soon 148,290
K Shanmugam, Lee Bee Wah, Lim Wee Kiat, Mohd Faishal, Patrick Tay

Yam Poh Nam, Angela Oon, Sajeev Kamalasanan, Chong Cham Weng, Poh Lee Guan

PAP to win by more than 60 percent

Punggol East 33,281
Michael Palmer vs Desmond Lim (SDA) vs Lee Li Lian (WP)

PAP to win by more than 60 percent

Pioneer 25,745
Cedric Foo vs Steve Chia (NSP)

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

Pasir Ris-Punggol 168,971
Teo Chee Hean, Teo Ser Luck, Penny Low, Zainal Sapari, Gan Thiam Poh, Janil Puthucheary

Harminder Singh (SDA), Sidney Soon, Mohamad Shafri, Tan Keng Hong, Jeffrey Lim, Patrick Lee

PAP to win by more than 60 percent

Potong Pasir 17,327
Sitoh Yih Pin vs Lina Loh (SPP)

PAP to sneak through by more than 50 percent

Radin Mas 31,104
Sam Tan vs Yip Weng Yew (NSP)

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

Sembawang 142,459
Khaw Boon Wan, Hawazi Dalpi, Ellen Lee, Vikram Nair, Ong Teng Khoon

James Gomez (SDP), Sadasivam Veriyah, Mohd Isa Aziz, Tan Liang Joo, Jarrod Luo

PAP to win by more than 60 percent

Seng Kang West 26,882
Lam Pin Min vs Koh Choon Yong (WP)

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

Tampines 137,354
Mah Bow Tan, Masagos Zulkifli, Heng Swee Kiat, Irene Ng, Baey Yam Keng

Goh Meng Seng (NSP), Gilbert Goh, Raymond Lim, Syafarin Sarif, Reno Fong

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

West Coast 121,045
Lawrence Wong, Foo Mee Har, Arthur Fong, S Iswaran, Lim Hng Kiang

Zhu Laicheng (RP), Low Chiak Hun, Kumar Appavoo, Kenneth Jeyaretnam, Harn Ho

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

Whampoa 21,631
Heng Chee How vs Ken Sun (NSP)

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

Yuhua 23,199
Grace Fu vs Teo Soh Lung (SDP)

PAP to win by at least 55 percent

 

[Charlie99]

Please consider the candidates from the opposition in Aljunied, Bishan Toa Payoh, Holland Bukit Timah, Hougang, Joo Chiat, Marine Parade, Mountbatten, Yuhua.

On short notice, it is too far for me to fly to Singapore to attend the rallies and put my ears to the ground. However, I hope that the opposition are able to win more than 1 SMC and 1 GRC.

 

[kingrant]

So based on the odds,

Mah still can hang on and GMS is in history's rubbish bin despite all the noise abt HDB flat prices.

The Yakult fella oso saved despite 1 in 50 yr floods.

Chiam's wife lost PP.

I dont know what to say!

 

[Charlie99]

So based on the odds,

Mah still can hang on and GMS is in history's rubbish bin.

Chiam's wife lost PP.

Unfortunate as it may appear, I tend to agree with the bookies' odds with respect to the above two constituencies.

 

[Charlie99]

Re: Thought of the Day

"The hardest thing about any campaign is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning." Adlai Stevenson, American politician (1900 to 1965)

 

[kingrant]

Re: Thought of the Day

"The hardest thing about any campaign is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning." Adlai Stevenson, American politician (1900 to 1965)

Applies to woody and yakult very well too.

 

[ahleebabasingaporethief]

My bookie odds are VERY different from yours.

Your "ODDS" seems like a research paper from an established "Company".

Mine shows close fight ALL OVER THE ISLAND.......

Total votes of mine does not open at 60%.

It is below 55% and 55-58%
<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="if(typeof(jsCall)=='function'){jsCall();}else{setTimeout('jsCall()',500);}" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

 

[Charlie99]

Did your odds indicate how many non-PAP MP's?

 

[ahleebabasingaporethief]

Did your odds indicate how many non-PAP MP's?

Not yet.................never ask because I am not a betting man
<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="if(typeof(jsCall)=='function'){jsCall();}else{setTimeout('jsCall()',500);}" id="jsProxy" type="hidden"><input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="if(typeof(jsCall)=='function'){jsCall();}else{setTimeout('jsCall()',500);}" id="jsProxy" type="hidden"><input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="if(typeof(jsCall)=='function'){jsCall();}else{setTimeout('jsCall()',500);}" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

 

[leoman]

ur hopes may b realise. with a realistic wish of 1 grc n 1or 2 smc, its oready a +ve victory 4 d APs.
@least it increase d # of opp presence in parliamnet

anyting more than tis wish is a bonus
any %age drop 2 d ruling party is a wakup call

Please consider the candidates from the opposition in Aljunied, Bishan Toa Payoh, Holland Bukit Timah, Hougang, Joo Chiat, Marine Parade, Mountbatten, Yuhua.

On short notice, it is too far for me to fly to Singapore to attend the rallies and put my ears to the ground. However, I hope that the opposition are able to win more than 1 SMC and 1 GRC.

 

[jeckie1970]

the odds i am hearing is : Aljunied GRC
TAKe WP and handicap given to PAP ; 3000 votes.

means to say, WP to win more than 3000 over VOTES.

huat la~~~

My bookie odds are VERY different from yours.

Your "ODDS" seems like a research paper from an established "Company".

Mine shows close fight ALL OVER THE ISLAND.......

Total votes of mine does not open at 60%.

It is below 55% and 55-58%
<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="if(typeof(jsCall)=='function'){jsCall();}else{setTimeout('jsCall()',500);}" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

 

[eQuipment]

Re: Thought of the Day

i overheard coffeeshop punters discussing:

Aljunied GRC
WP win: odds 0.8
PAP win: odds 1.1

they also mentioned other GRCs, but i didnt pay attention, bcos i was laughing too hard on hearing that pap become underdogs, after all the mudslinging ongoing in the press & media.

 

[Charlie99]

Re: Thought of the Day

i overheard coffeeshop punters discussing:

Aljunied GRC
WP win: odds 0.8
PAP win: odds 1.1

they also mentioned other GRCs, but i didnt pay attention, bcos i was laughing too hard on hearing that pap become underdogs, after all the mudslinging ongoing in the press & media.

I believe that the race will be very close. Therefore, it is important that the WP volunteers encourage their supporters to vote.

 

[Charlie99]

Re: Quotes from Mr. Lee Kuan Yew

Subject: Famous quotes from MM Lee Kuan Yew, before PAP and after PAP formed the government.

SINGAPORE BEFORE PAP formed the government:

“But we either believe in democracy or we do not. If we do, then, we must say categorically, without qualification, that no restraint from any democratic processes, other than by the ordinary law of the land, should be allowed… If you believe in democracy, you must believe in it unconditionally. If you believe that men should be free, then, they should have the right of free association, of free speech, of free publication. Then, no law should permit those democratic processes to be set at nought.”
- Lee Kuan Yew as an opposition leader, April 27, 1955

“If it is not totalitarian to arrest a man and detain him, when you cannot charge him with any offence against any written law – if that is not what we have always cried out against in Fascist states – then what is it?… If we are to survive as a free democracy, then we must be prepared, in principle, to concede to our enemies – even those who do not subscribe to our views – as much constitutional rights as you concede yourself.”
- Opposition leader Lee Kuan Yew, Legislative Assembly Debates, Sept 21, 1955

“If we say that we believe in democracy, if we say that the fabric of a democratic society is one which allows for the free play of idea…then, in the name of all the gods, give that free play a chance to work within the constitutional framework.”
- Opposition leader Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore Legislative Assembly, Oct 4, 1956

“Repression, Sir is a habit that grows. I am told it is like making love-it is always easier the second time! The first time there may be pangs of conscience, a sense of guilt. But once embarked on this course with constant repetition you get more and more brazen in the attack. All you have to do is to dissolve organizations and societies and banish and detain the key political workers in these societies. Then miraculously everything is tranquil on the surface. Then an intimidated press and the government-controlled radio together can regularly sing your praises, and slowly and steadily the people are made to forget the evil things that have already been done, or if these things are referred to again they’re conveniently distorted and distorted with impunity, because there will be no opposition to contradict.”
-Lee Kuan Yew as an opposition PAP member speaking to David Marshall, Singapore Legislative Assembly, Debates, 4 October, 1956

“…you attack only those whom your Special Branch can definitely say are communists. Then you attack those whom your Special Branch says are aiding communists. Then finally, when you have gone that far, you attack all who oppose you.”
-Lee Kuan Yew as an opposition PAP member speaking to David Marshall, Singapore Legislative Assembly, Debates, 4 October, 1956

“Repression can only go up to a point. When it becomes too acute, the instruments of repression, namely the army and the police, have been proved time and time again in history to have turned their guns on their masters.”
- Opposition leader Lee Kuan Yew, Straits Times, May 5, 1959

“These powers will not be allowed to be used against political opponents within the system who compete for the right to work the system. That is fundamental and basic or the powers will have destroyed the purpose for which they were forged.”
- Lee Kuan Yew speaking in Parliament on the Preservation of Public Security Act, a precursor to the ISA, Oct 14, 1959

“I pointed to an article with bold headlines reporting that the police had refused to allow the PAP to hold a rally at Empress Place, and then to the last paragraph where in small type it added the meeting would take place where we were now. I compared this with a prominent report about an SPA rally. This was flagrant bias.”
- Lee Kuan Yew commenting on the Straits Times, 1959.


SINGAPORE AFTER PAP formed the government:

“We must encourage those who earn less than $200 per month and cannot afford to nurture and educate many children never to have more than two… We will regret the time lost if we do not now take the first tentative steps towards correcting a trend which can leave our society with a large number of the physically, intellectually and culturally anaemic.”
- Lee Kuan Yew, 1967

“I make no apologies that the PAP is the Government and the Government is the PAP.”
- Lee Kuan Yew, Petir, 1982

“One-man-one-vote is a most difficult form of government.. Results can be erratic.”
- Lee Kuan Yew, Dec 19 1984

“We have to lock up people, without trial, whether they are communists, whether they are language chauvinists, whether they are religious extremists. If you don’t do that, the country would be in ruins.”
- Lee Kuan Yew, 1986

“I am often accused of interfering in the private lives of citizens. Yes, if I did not, had I not done that, we wouldn’t be here today. And I say without the slightest remorse, that we wouldn’t be here, we would not have made economic progress, if we had not intervened on very personal matters – who your neighbour is, how you live, the noise you make, how you spit, or what language you use. We decide what is right. Never mind what the people think.”
- Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, Straits Times, 20 April 1987

“It is not the practice, nor will I allow subversives to get away by insisting that I’ve got to prove everything against them in a court of law or [produce] evidence that will stand up to the strict rules of evidence of a court of law.”
- Lee Kuan Yew, 1988

“I’m not intellectually convinced that one-man-one-vote is the best. We practise it because that’s what the British bequeathed us.”
- Lee Kuan Yew, 1994

“Anybody who decides to take me on needs to put on knuckle-dusters. If you think you can hurt me more than I can hurt you, try. There is no way you can govern a Chinese society.”
- Lee Kuan Yew, The Man and His Ideas, 1997

“They say people can think for themselves? Do you honestly believe that the chap who can’t pass primary six knows the consequence of his choice when he answers a question viscerally, on language, culture and religion? But we knew the consequences. We would starve, we would have race riots. We would disintegrate.”
- Lee Kuan Yew, The Man & His Ideas, 1997

“If we had considered them serious political figures, we would not have kept them politically alive for so long. We could have bankrupt them earlier.”- Lee Kuan Yew on political opposition, Straits Times, Sept 14, 2003

“If I have to shoot 200,000 students to save China from another 100 years of disorder, so be it.”
- Lee Kuan Yew evoking the ghost of Deng Xiaoping whilst endorsing theTiananmen Square massacre, Straits Times, Aug 17, 2004

“Without the elected president and if there is a freak result, within two or three years, the army would have to come in and stop it”
- Lee Kuan Yew on what would happen if a profligate opposition government touched Singapore’s vast monetary reserves, Straits Times, Sept 16 2006

“Please do not assume that you can change governments. Young people don’t understand this”
- Lee Kuan Yew on the results of the 2006 election

 

[palden]

Re: Quotes from Mr. Lee Kuan Yew

Hougang 50 50 chance. The rest no chance. Remember this! Sure come true. Singaporeans sure vote PAP one.

 

[Logisex]

Re: Quotes from Mr. Lee Kuan Yew

Hougang 50 50 chance. The rest no chance. Remember this! Sure come true. Singaporeans sure vote PAP one.

I also think so although I hope I will be wrong.............

 

[blahblah]

Re: Quotes from Mr. Lee Kuan Yew

Thanks Charlie99 for the collection of quotes from this guy. What a change in stand.

 

[tioliaohuat]

So based on the odds,

Chiam's wife lost PP.

I dont know what to say!

let see how the support tonight n tomorrow

 

[patrickv]

call the number in my signature for latest odds from spools. he has inside info from pap.