TopSage : Daily Market Talk ....

SOme Introduction first on this thread.

I'm a full time mid term trader looking for mid term trends anything from 2-3 weeks up to months if the trend holds out.
I use a set of quatitative tools analysing inter-market relationships (correlations) and money flow. I also superimpose the fundamentals
economic analysis to more fully understand what is going on. My analysis results in trades I think have the highest outcome of success.

So far my record is roughly 60% of my trades are profitable and profitable trades have roughly double the gain compared with losses on
losing trades. My tool of choice is IG Markets CFD which gives me access to almost all stock indices, forex and commodities. All my trades
are made with a fix cut loss (with occasional exceptions) and I trade almost anything so long as I think the risk/reward is favorable....including
penny stocks, blue chips and commodities.

For this thread I will update every morning my thoughts and analysis. and the outcome of so that people can follow easily.

velly good leh...................must be updated every day ah.................


make sure to ignore that moron called Sinkie.................

TopSage said:

... For this thread I will update every morning my thoughts and analysis. and the outcome of so that people can follow easily.

Click to expand...

y u tel ppl 2 follow u? ...

u can b responsible / bramed 4 their losses? ...

Topsage can trade SGX on deepavali day before CFD implement. Very professional trader.

His call on CNA & sgfuck on 25% are correct, everyone in this 2 forum know Topsage is a reverse indicator.

28 Aug 2013
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For more than 2 weeks I have maintain short positions in Sensex and Rupee. Generally short positions in Asian markets for last few weeks.
For those who have followed me on CNA, will know I also have a long position in WE Holdings for several months purchased at 6 cents (pre-rights),
this position has already doubled in value (post rights 5.3cents) . Many howled at me as this stock is not for the faint hearted and fluctuated through
a wide range. Like I said in the beginning of the trade the targeted oil and gas business as well as RTO by Myanmar tycoons who need access to capital
will continue to drive Myanmar related stocks. Of cource there are plenty of doubts and people who think it is all dubious. By the time they think this is all
a good sound investment, it is probably time to exit.

My thoughts for the intraday trades today.
Right now the STI is down 30+ points sitting at key support of 3000 (3003 to be exact) now 1125am.
For intraday reading, my indicators show after the morning show a large flood of sell orders dying to get out due to fall of 170pts on the DOW.
The market will now do an intraday rebound right about now and regain much of its losses, these is due to fall in selling volume and most stocks
reaching support levels where bargain hunters will move in.
While this is my intraday read on the market, I expect the market to remain weak in the coming weeks. Investors do well to sell on strength and reduce exposure.
Asian markets like Thailand, India, Malaysia, Indonesia face capital outflows that resemble that similar to during Asian crisis. The risk of crisis and severe downside has to be factored in.

Another Con Hee?

TopSage said:

28 Aug 2013
---------------

For more than 2 weeks I have maintain short positions in Sensex and Rupee.

Click to expand...

Show us your trade record here on your short position to prove your claim liar.

Hi, TopSage. You are putting up a very serious proposal; that you are providing your honest and educated view of the markets. I hope that you are serious and that your views match up to your intentions. I have seen threads from people on this forum trying to give out financial advice. From what I saw they were very solid advice and we could really thank them for their views. I will qualify my comment and indicated that you would have made money if your did the opposite of them.

I am a small trader. A full time currency trader dealing mainly in US crosses. Perhaps, allow me to give my 2 cents worth of the currency market. Do not initiate US$ long positions for now. Firstly, the US$ debt ceiling issue, this will probably take the center stage in the Sept month, thus look for highs to go for quick shorts in the US$. Secondly, given the Syrian situation, money may go into safe havens, thus any deep sell in the US$ market may give opportunity to take medium term long position, in view of the tapering exercise. Also bear in mind that any involvement in Syrian crisis may put back the tapering exercise pushing the US$ down, thus looking for highs to go short. Limit short positions to a 30 pip stop loss. Use 20 MACD to identify resistance levels. Take profits 10 pips from support levels. Keep close watch on the RSI levels to initiate levels.

That's my 2 cents worth. Thanks for reading

PhuaCheeBye said:

Another Con Hee?

Click to expand...

Worst than Con Hee, better than GOD, can trade STI on deepavali day before CFD implement.

Fearless Jedi said:

Hi, TopSage. You are putting up a very serious proposal; that you are providing your honest and educated view of the markets. I hope that you are serious and that your views match up to your intentions. I have seen threads from people on this forum trying to give out financial advice. From what I saw they were very solid advice and we could really thank them for their views. I will qualify my comment and indicated that you would have made money if your did the opposite of them.

I am a small trader. A full time currency trader dealing mainly in US crosses. Perhaps, allow me to give my 2 cents worth of the currency market. Do not initiate US$ long positions for now. Firstly, the US$ debt ceiling issue, this will probably take the center stage in the Sept month, thus look for highs to go for quick shorts in the US$. Secondly, given the Syrian situation, money may go into safe havens, thus any deep sell in the US$ market may give opportunity to take medium term long position, in view of the tapering exercise. Also bear in mind that any involvement in Syrian crisis may put back the tapering exercise pushing the US$ down, thus looking for highs to go short. Limit short positions to a 30 pip stop loss. Use 20 MACD to identify resistance levels. Take profits 10 pips from support levels. Keep close watch on the RSI levels to initiate levels.

That's my 2 cents worth. Thanks for reading

Click to expand...

The only way to make money by sending others to hell is in the small caps, forex ...commodities and stocks indices are not going to move due to one analyst's or punter's recommendation. Trading small caps is not one of my favorite areas, I took up position in WE Holdings only after advice from an expert....however, this is a high volume stock with many detractors and supporters, it will hardly move on anything I say.

In conclusion, I'm not worried that my writings move markets, basically it can't and nobody should complain when I'm wrong because upfront I already said I'm wrong about 40% of the time. In fact, anyone trading knows anyone who claims to be always correct or nearly always correct is dubious.

TopSage said:

In conclusion, I'm not worried that my writings move markets, basically it can't and nobody should complain when I'm wrong because upfront I already said I'm wrong about 40% of the time. In fact, anyone trading knows anyone who claims to be always correct or nearly always correct is dubious.

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U sure your call only 40% wrong? not 75% wrong? Can post your trade records here to prove your claim?

Well since the Syrian crisis is giving me some time on my hands, I will reply. Commodities, forex, equities are just different markets. You can make on small caps if you do your homework well. You can make money on commodities just as Jim Rogers and you can make money on the Forex. I recently purchased my Lexus by going long on the USD/JPY from 95 to 102. It is different if you blindly follow 'éxpert' advice. I don't follow any advice, if I do and I lose, I blame only my stupidity. Trading in any market takes real effort and patience. You need to undertstand what you are doing. I have never attended any forex workshop, I might one day- just to hear what special skills they have.

Are you going to give equity advice? And this is based on an 'expert' advice given to you? I suggest that you keep this advice to yourself.

I'm sorry to have wasted your time, I am just not in your league.

Thanks

HSI now down 400pts, I expect it to rebound as as SHANGHAI remains relativelyly strong last few days unaffected by sharp losses else where....time of my long trade 12noon..-

Fearless Jedi said:

Well since the Syrian crisis is giving me some time on my hands, I will reply. Commodities, forex, equities are just different markets. You can make on small caps if you do your homework well. You can make money on commodities just as Jim Rogers and you can make money on the Forex. I recently purchased my Lexus by going long on the USD/JPY from 95 to 102. It is different if you blindly follow 'éxpert' advice. I don't follow any advice, if I do and I lose, I blame only my stupidity. Trading in any market takes real effort and patience. You need to undertstand what you are doing. I have never attended any forex workshop, I might one day- just to hear what special skills they have.

Are you going to give equity advice? And this is based on an 'expert' advice given to you? I suggest that you keep this advice to yourself.

I'm sorry to have wasted your time, I am just not in your league.

Thanks

Click to expand...

Equity advice? No. I will just say what I buy and why and time frame of the trade. Rest is up to them

TopSage said:

HSI now down 400pts, I expect it to rebound as as SHANGHAI remains relativelyly strong last few days unaffected by sharp losses else where....time of my long trade 12noon..-

Click to expand...

Can show us your long position trade record here? Or just a paper trader.

You expect??? What indicators are you using? What fundamentals are there in the market? Is is a flight to safe haven!

Catch this falling knife by yourself. If anyone is reading- STAY OUT.

Fearless Jedi said:

You expect??? What indicators are you using? What fundamentals are there in the market? Is is a flight to safe haven!

Catch this falling knife by yourself. If anyone is reading- STAY OUT.

Click to expand...

Thanks for expressing your opinion, I was tracing the strength of selling and it tapered all the way to 12
Noon, this favors the upside should bargain hunters come in, any move on hsi uncorrelated with shanghai so far has tendency to regress - that is the full logic of the trade

I don't need to prove anything to you. If you are worth your salt. You know that this is a medium term trade initiate in the second quarter this year exited recently end MAY. I thought you were interested in serious market analysis?
This time I'm wrong.

Good luck.

My last comment. Any major fundamental shift in the market will override all technical indicators. In these situations, The RSI will be the most useful gauge. Technical indicators are historical in nature. You are expecting history to repeat itself by spotting similar historical patterns- this is one big mistake that traders make. If you insist on using this, prepare a cut loss before entry. Please do not be offended, I just don't like to hide the truth from you. It's better that I tell you than the market teaches you. The HK market is now trading on greed and fear. Your best bet is to do resistance trading with a narrow margin of error. Understand your emotions before you trade.

Right now the STI is down 30+ points sitting at key support of 3000 (3003 to be exact) now 1125am.
For intraday reading, my indicators show after the morning show a large flood of sell orders dying to get out due to fall of 170pts on the DOW.
The market will now do an intraday rebound right about now and regain much of its losses, these is due to fall in selling volume and most stocks
reaching support levels where bargain hunters will move in.

Click to expand...

LOL!!!