http://www.sohu.com/a/226638118_419342
不吹牛皮！为什么统一的炮声一响，“台独”顶多撑三天！
2018-03-29 07:25
台湾 /导弹
3天之后，美日等外援就别白跑一趟了。
“武统台湾到底需要多长时间？”最近一段时间，海峡两岸众说纷纭，莫衷一是。由于蔡英文当局拒不承认“九二共识”,大陆民众“武统”台湾的声势日渐高涨。与此相关，“武统台湾需要多少时间”自然也就成为热议的话题。
我们回顾一下，台湾岛内“国军到底能抵抗共军多久”其实是一道历久不衰的话题，是岛内军民心中恒久的“痛”，历任“国防部长”都有回答。
2007年，“立委”李敖称“当时的‘国防部长’唐飞说只要增加预算，台湾的空军最多可撑过45分钟”。唐飞（1999-2000年任“国防部长”）认为“能支持几天”。
2010年，李敖质询时任“国防部长”李杰，李回答“能抵抗两个礼拜”，李敖接着说“两个礼拜之后美国还不来，台湾是一片火海，我们完蛋了”。
2011年，“立委”蒋孝严质询时任“国防部长”高华柱时，回答“能够坚持到国际上其他奥援为止，要超过两个礼拜以上”。
2014年，时任“国防部长”的严明在回答“立委”质询“假设中共对台威胁未减，具备大规模犯台能力时，台军可以守几天”时，表示“经过汉光历次演习所推出的验证结果，可以支撑30天左右”，被“立委”称作“有胆识”。
近年台媒几次报道，台湾有“立委”询问“国防部长”冯世宽“一旦两岸开打，台湾可以撑几天”，冯世宽称“能打多久打多久，撑一周是绝对的”。
历数上述台“国防部长”的回答，从唐飞的几天到严明的一个月，以至最近冯世宽（已卸任——环环注）的一个星期，差距颇大。看来没有经过郑重、科学的论证及计算机仿真和兵棋推演，为了对付“立委”的诘难，随口说说，搪塞而已。说者和听者都心中明白，听客也不必较真。
解放军海军陆战队
那么我军到底几天能拿下台湾呢？我如果参加岛内“立法院”大讨论，和上述几位“国防部长”不一样，我可以为自己说的话负责。我的答案恐怕与唐飞差不多，只有几天时间。具体说，如果从我登陆兵踏上台湾岛那一刻，即“D”日“0h”时算起，那么“D＋48h”即两天，即能取得攻岛完全胜利。如果从第一发炮弹落在台岛算起，24小时后登陆，那么“D-24h”加上“D＋48h”,共72小时，三天拿下台湾。
我来大致推算一下三天拿下台湾的依据。
根据公开资料，台军经“精实、精进、精粹案”精减后，总兵力约21.5万人，其中陆军10-12万、作战部队约8万人。本岛组成4个作战区，野战部队共9个联兵旅，可能其中负责守备的旅5个，负责机动打击的旅4个，各战区还有一些守备部队，另加陆航、特战3个旅，共约16个旅兵力。装备美制M60A3和M48勇虎坦克约700多辆，M41轻型坦克和各型装甲车1800多辆；105口径以上火炮1500门（其中雷霆2000火箭炮数十门）；防空导弹200多套（其中爱国者三型9套），高炮200多门；各型直升机200多架（其中阿帕奇30架）；空军F-16、幻影2000、经国号战机共约300多架；海军驱护舰等主力战舰约30艘，能用于作战的潜艇2艘。
我之所以不详细列举台军海空军兵力，主要是因为一旦开打，其主力战机、战舰即在我火力准备阶段（D-24h）损毁大半，其余基本不能起飞、出港，可以认为已失去战斗力。
解放军朱日和阅兵方阵
如果我作为台方假想敌，充任台军统帅部某次“汉光演习”的我军，与“台独”军事力量进行对抗仿真作业，看用72小时攻占台湾，时间是怎么分配的。
先给出作业起始条件。台军认为我军攻台，一般要经过“联合战略威慑”、“联合火力封锁”、“联合火力打击”、“联合登岛（台湾）作战”几个阶段。为使起始时间点清晰，也不必借用“火力封锁”和“火力打击”阶段的杀伤效果，
本次推演我军从发起战略突袭开始，直接进入“联合登岛作战”。发起时间以“作战时间”的登陆日“D”、零时“0h”为基准，提前一天，即“D-24h”时开始。下面开始推演。
“D-24h”开始直前火力打击。以火箭军为主，300-370毫米远程火箭炮为辅，主要打击火力分为三波。
第一波，打击数十个重要目标，如主要军用机场，军港，装甲、炮兵和步兵集结地，防空、雷达、电子技术阵地，通信枢纽，电力枢纽等。当然火力斩首也会在第一波内，如“总统府”、民进党党部、“总统府”、衡山（圆山）指挥所、军种司令部、作战区指挥部。其中有二十几个目标必须确保摧毁，如衡山（圆山）地下指挥部、4个作战区和3个军种指挥部、佳山和台东飞机洞库、左营军港、数个爱国者导弹阵地、乐山铺路爪远程雷达、归仁等三处阿帕奇直升机基地。要预备充足的适用弹药，特别是钻地弹和混凝土爆破弹。据我所知，我军近程导弹以千计数，远火弹以万计数。在发起第一波打击之前或同时，密集发射和调集侦察、遥感卫星以及长航时高空无人机，确保台军动向每“h”都在我严密监控之下，并评估毁伤情况。
尔后，发起
第二波打击，包括所有被编目的军事目标和军民共用目标以及影响我行动的重要民用目标，其中有发电厂、变电站、交通枢纽（交流道）、桥梁隧道（我陆上进攻需经过的保留）、绿营电视台、广播电台。经打击评估后，发起第三波打击，包括第一、二波打击之后残存和正在恢复的目标，确保所有被打击目标在“D＋48h”内不能恢复使用。在导弹和远火每一波打击之后，我航空兵进行补充打击，并临空察看、评估目标损毁情况，对未被完全损毁的目标进行补充打击。对强行起飞的少数战机予以击落，对少数窜出军港的舰艇予以击沉，对已开出集结地域的装甲、炮兵、步兵部队予以拦击。
尔后由察打一体无人机不间断监视被打击目标，消灭零星复活火力。
经过三波导弹、远火打击和三波航空兵补充打击之后，台海的制电磁权、制空权、制海权被我完全掌握。之后，我空优航空兵转入空中巡航，强击航空兵和远火转入支援火力突击。
解放军“欧洲野牛”气垫登陆艇
在我三波火力打击之际，我登陆船团第一梯队在若干个装载地域登船并航渡，在“D＋0h”时，我登陆兵踏上台岛岸滩。其突击上陆之际，得到我远火火力、舰炮火力、空军航空兵火力和陆航火力的掩护及支援。我武直10主要监视敌“一树之高”的超低空，打击台军阿帕奇直升机，解除其对我登陆部队的威胁。空军航空兵和舰炮火力主要消灭敌逆袭（反冲击）部（分）队。我期望台军像在“汉光”演习中“反舟波射击”一样，把坦克纵队摆在海滩上，那我海空直瞄火力就省事多了。预计在新竹、湖口台地方向会有1-2个装甲旅的战役反突击，远火的杀伤子母弹和反装甲末敏弹在打击敌反突击战术兵团时将派上用场。
“D＋4h”我第一梯队旅团夺占浅近纵深，控制登陆场。“D＋8h”我集团军第二梯队上陆并进入战斗，夺控战术纵深的主要目标，在新竹、桃园当面，应进到中山高速一线，在先期着陆的特种兵、空降兵配合下，夺控新竹系统、平镇系统、机场系统、莺歌系统各交流道，截断中央山脉以西通往大台北区的主要通道。负责夺占港口、机场的部队，完成当前任务，严密监视当面敌情，引导主力登（着）陆。如果第一阶段（登陆）不顺利，延时4小时，应在“D＋12h”完成登陆任务。此后，转入陆上战斗。
下面由于受篇幅所限，我不推演全岛陆上进攻过程，仅以台湾岛北部——大台北区态势做推演。此时，我围攻台北的主要作战集团、辅助作战集团都已登陆（着陆）完毕，开始向台北市区攻击前进。预计战前台军在大台北区有6-8个旅兵力，其中联兵旅4-5个，作战区直属2-3个旅的守备兵力，每旅按4500人计算，共约4万人。经第一阶段抗登陆作战，已损失3-4个旅兵力，余下2-3个联兵旅和作战区守备部队共约2万人，分向中山高速、国二高速西南方向，新竹、桃园方向，基隆方向，宜兰方向和台北市市区组织防御。每个方向约一个旅的兵力，3000-4000人。
我从三个方向进攻：沿国二（福尔摩蕯）高速从西南向东北，对台北市西南部进攻；沿中山高速从新竹、桃园，向台北市西部进攻；从基隆沿福尔摩蕯高速，向台北市东北部进攻。同时封闭蒋渭水高速和北宜山区公路，截断大台北区东西联系，在台北市区形成关门打狗之势。三个方向前进距离分别约为70、60、30千米，按15千米/小时进攻速度计算，攻至市区2-5个小时。假设每线进攻途中遇有阻击据点1-3处，每处拔除1小时（能绕过则绕过，否则召唤上级火力摧毁，不与纠缠并滞留），加上3个小时，共5-8个小时。如有意外情况发生，另处置4小时。
举一例，如台北市东北入口汐止交流道，可用远火杀伤子母弹杀灭路面上所有武装人员，用空气燃料弹清除路障，保障我军顺利通过。各方向于“D＋24h”进至台北市区。此时，我特种兵和空中突击队群已控制松山机场和衡山（圆山）指挥部周边。
台军统帅部蔡英文及“国防部长”等人此时可能：一是仍在指挥部内束手待毙，一是出逃。但是怎么逃，逃往哪里？可见下一篇《“台独”头目哪里逃？》
解放军071型船坞登陆舰
推演至此，登陆起始时间过去一天（D＋24h）。此时态势是，台北、高雄、基隆、台中、花莲、宜兰、台东等主要地区目标已被毁被围或被火力严密控制，其中一部被攻占；台湾主要军民用机场和港口、防空阵地、通信枢纽、电子战阵地已大部被摧毁或损伤，起码在“D＋48h”内无法使用；台军统帅部失去指挥效能，主要指挥官或被斩首、或逃亡，指挥网瘫痪，与作战部队失去联系；台岛对外海底通信缆线被切断，通信、侦察卫星被暂时致盲，“D＋48h”内无法接通，对外联系被大大压缩；绿营电视台、广播电台、网络中心被我摧毁、关闭或被我特种兵控制；台军大批官兵投诚，纷纷前往战俘收容所。
在上述态势下，如仍有少数绿台还有抵抗意志，则我尔后行动：攻占衡山（圆山）指挥部，摧毁仍在负隅顽抗的据点，围歼被绕过的城镇据守之敌，消灭逃离本岛的海军舰船等，约8小时，总时间“D＋32h”。尔后打扫战场，收容俘虏，约4小时。至此离三天（D-24h加上D＋48h）还剩余12小时，用于处置不可预见情况。
火箭军东风-21D中程弹道导弹
推演收局，结论已很明确：不到三天。
总之，最多只给美日等外力援台三天时间。三天援军未到，或被我东风21D导弹和海空兵力、火力拦阻而不能靠近台湾，就不要再费心劳力地白跑一趟了。
（本文作者系原南京军区副司令员王洪光，原标题：作战仿真：不用三天拿下台湾）
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Do not blow cowhide! Why did the reunification of gunfire sound and "Taiwan independence" stayed on top for three days!
2018-03-29 07:25
Taiwan
/
missile
After three days, foreign aid such as the United States and Japan did not run white.
“How long does it take for Wutong to start Taiwan?” In the most recent period, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have different opinions and are unable to agree. As Tsai Ing-wen's authorities refused to recognize the "1992 Consensus," the Chinese people's "Wu Tong" Taiwan's momentum has gradually increased. Related to this, "how much time does Wutong Taiwan need" naturally becomes a hot topic.
We recall that the “how long the national army can resist the Communist army in the Taiwan Island” is actually an ever-lasting topic. It is the permanent “pain” in the minds of the island’s military and civilians. All previous “defense ministers” have answered.
In 2007, "Legislative Yuan," Li Wei said that "the then 'defense minister' Tang Fei said that as long as the increase in the budget, the Taiwan Air Force can sustain up to 45 minutes." Tang Fei ("defense minister" from 1999 to 2000) thinks "it can support a few days."
In 2010, Li was questioned by Li Jie, the "defense minister," and Li answered "can resist two weeks." Li Yu added: "After two weeks, the United States has not come yet. Taiwan is a sea of fire. We are finished."
In 2011, the "Legislative Yuan" Jiang Xiaoyin asked Gao Yongzhu, the "defense minister," when he answered, "It can take more than two weeks or more to stay on top of other international aids."
In 2014, Yan Ming, then the “Defense Minister,” responded to “Legislative Yuan” inquiring, “assuming that the CCP’s threat to Taiwan has not diminished, and that Taiwan’s military can hold on for several days when it is capable of committing large-scale offenses in Taiwan,” indicating that after “Han Guang” The verification results introduced by the drills can support about 30 days, and they are called "brave awareness" by the "Legislative Yuan."
In recent years, Taiwan media reported several times that Taiwan has "legislators" to inquire "defense minister" Feng Shikuan. "Once Taiwan and China can open a fight on the two sides of the strait," Feng Shikuan said "how long it can be played and how long it takes to support one week is absolute."
Judging from the answers given by the "defense ministers" of Taiwan, the gap between Tang Fei's days and Yan Ming's one month, as well as Feng Shikuan's recent resignation (circumstances), is quite different. It seems that there has been no rigorous, scientific argumentation, computer simulations, and war games. In order to deal with the "legislative legislators" martyrdom, casually speaking, it is nothing but a stumbling block. Both the speaker and the listener understand that the listener does not have to be true.
People's Liberation Army Marine Corps
So how many times can our army win Taiwan in the end? If I participate in the "Legislative Yuan" discussion on the island, I will be responsible for what I am saying, unlike the "Defense Ministers" mentioned above. My answer is probably similar to Tang Fei, only a few days. Specifically, if the moment I landed on Taiwan Island from the landing force, that is, when it was “0h” on the “D” day, then “D+48h” would be a two-day victory. If it lands on Taiwan Island from the first shell and lands 24 hours later, then “D-24h” adds “D+48h” for a total of 72 hours, winning Taiwan for three days.
Let me roughly estimate the basis for winning Taiwan in three days.
According to public information, after the Taiwan military reduced the “excellent, sophisticated, refined case”, the total strength was about 215,000, of which the army was 10-120,000 and the combat troops were about 80,000. The island consists of four combat zones. The field forces have a total of nine coalition brigades. They may include five brigades responsible for garrisoning, four brigades for maneuvering attacks, and several garrisons in all combat zones, plus three aviation and special warfare operations. Brigade, a total of about 16 brigade forces. More than 700 U.S.-made M60A3 and M48 brave tiger tanks, more than 1800 M41 light tanks and various types of armored vehicles, 1,500 guns of more than 105 calibre (including dozens of rocket rockets of the Thunder 2000), and more than 200 sets of anti-aircraft missiles (including Patriot III Type 9 sets), more than 200 anti-aircraft guns; more than 200 helicopters of various types (including Apache 30); Air Force F-16, Mirage 2000, and Jingguo fighter aircraft totaling about 300; Naval escorting vessels and other main forces There are about 30 warships and 2 submarines that can be used for combat. The reason why I did not enumerate the strengths of the Taiwan Haijun Air Force in detail is that once it was opened, its main fighter planes and warships were destroyed in most of my preparations for firepower (D-24h). The rest could not be taken off or left Hong Kong and could be considered to have lost combat effectiveness.
Liberation Army Zhu Rihe Parade Square
If I, as an imaginary enemy of the Taiwanese side, assume our military as a "Hanguang exercise" by the commander of the Taiwan Military Forces and compete against the "Taiwan independence" military forces for simulation operations, we will use 72 hours to capture Taiwan and how time is allocated.
Give the job start conditions first. Taiwan’s military believes that our military’s attack on Taiwan will generally undergo several stages of “joint strategic deterrence,” “joint fire blocking,” “joint fire strike,” and “joint island (Taiwan) operations.” In order to make the starting point clear, it is not necessary to borrow the effects of the “fire blocking” and “fire strike” stages. This time we deduced our army from the initiation of a strategy raid and started directly into the “joint island battle”. The launch time is based on the landing date “D” and “0h” at zero hour of the “operation time”, and starts one day in advance, that is, “D-24h”. The following starts deduction.
"D-24h" began to fire immediately. The main force is the rockets, supplemented by 300-370mm long-range rockets, and the main firepower is divided into three waves. The first wave hit dozens of important targets such as major military airports, military ports, armored, artillery and infantry assembly sites, air defense, radar, electronic technology positions, communications hubs, and power hubs. Of course, firepower daggers will also be within the first wave, such as the "Presidential Office," the Democratic Progressive Party, the "Presidential Office," the Hengshan (Ruanshan) Command, the Service Command, and the Battle Command. Among them, there must be more than 20 goals that must be ensured, such as the Hengshan (Guanshan) underground command post, 4 combat zones and 3 service branch commands, Jiashan and Taitung Aircraft Caverns, Zuoying Military Harbor, and several Patriot missiles. Positions, Leshan Pao Long-range Radar, Quy Nhon and other three Apache helicopter bases. Prepare enough applicable ammunition, especially earth-drilling and concrete demolition. As far as I know, our military’s short-range missiles are counted in thousands and far-fired missiles are counted in tens of thousands. Before launching the first wave of blows, intensive launches and deployments of reconnaissance, remote-sensing satellites, and long-driving high-altitude drones ensure that the Taiwan military moves toward every “h” under close surveillance and assesses the damage.
Afterwards, it launched a second wave of strikes, including all the listed military objectives and common goals for civilians and civilians as well as important civilian targets that affect my actions, including power plants, substations, transportation hubs (interchanges), and bridge tunnels. After the reservation), green camp TV station, radio station. After the crackdown on the assessment, a third wave of attacks was launched, including the targets that remained and were recovering after the first and second strikes, ensuring that all targeted targets could not be resumed within “D+48h”. After each strike of missiles and distant fires, our aviation crew made additional strikes, and looked over and evaluated target damages, supplementing targets that had not been completely destroyed. A small number of fighter planes forcibly taken off were shot down, and a small number of ships that had pulled out of the military port were sunk, and armored, artillery, and infantry units that had set aside a staging area were stopped. Afterwards, the one-piece UAV was constantly monitored for hit targets and sporadic resurrection firepower was eliminated.
After the three-wave missile, the far-fire strike, and the three-wave air force complemented the strike, the Taiwan Strait’s control of the electromagnetic power, air supremacy, and the right to control the sea was fully grasped by me. Afterwards, my Air Force Air Corps went into the air to cruise, attacking the airmen and passing fire to support the fire assault.
People's Liberation Army "Buffalo" air cushion landing craft
When I was struck by three waves of firepower, I landed on the first echelon of the flotilla and boarded and sailed on several loading areas. At “D+0h”, I landed troops on the shore of Taiwan Island. When he ascended to the land, he was sheltered and supported by my firepower, naval gunfire, air force aviation firepower, and aviation aviation firepower. My Wu Zhi 10 mainly monitored the enemy's "low altitude" ultra-low altitude, attacked the Taiwan Army Apache helicopter and lifted its threat to my landing force. The Air Force's aviation and naval firepower mainly destroy the enemy's counterattacks (backlash) team. I expect the Taiwan military to place the column of the tanks on the beach like the "anti-boating shooting" in the "Han Kuang" exercise. Then, if we look directly at the firepower, we will save more. It is expected that in the direction of Hsinchu and Hukou, there will be 1-2 anti-assaults for armoured brigades. Far-range anti-substance cartridges and anti-armor-sensitive missiles will come in handy when it comes to cracking down on enemy and counter-attack tactical brigades.
"D+4h", my first tier brigade took a shallow depth and controlled the landing field. "D+8h" The second tier of our group army landed and entered the battle, taking control of the main objective of tactical depth. In Hsinchu and Taoyuan, we should enter the front line of Zhongshan Expressway and take control of the Hsinchu system under the cooperation of advanced landing special forces and airborne forces. , Pingzheng system, airport system, Yingge system interchanges, cut off the main channel west of Central Mountain Range leading to the Greater Taipei area. Responsible for seizing the troops of the port and airport, completing the current tasks, closely monitoring the situation of the enemy, and guiding the main force to land. If the first phase (login) is not successful and the delay is 4 hours, the landing task should be completed in “D+12h”. Afterwards, he went to land to fight.
Due to limited space, I will not deduct the entire island offensive process, and only use the situation in the northern part of Taiwan Island, the Greater Taipei District, as a deduction. At this time, the major combat groups and auxiliary operations groups that have been siege to Taipei have landed (landed) and started to attack Taipei. It is estimated that the frontline army has 6-8 brigade forces in the Greater Taipei area, including 4-5 coalition brigades, and the garrison force of the 2-3 brigade directly under the combat zone, with 4,500 people per brigade, totaling about 40,000 people. . After the first phase of anti-landing operations, 3-4 brigade forces have been lost. The remaining 2-3 coalition brigade and garrison in the combat area total about 20,000 people and are divided into the southwest direction of Zhongshan Expressway and Guoer-2 Expressway. Hsinchu, Taoyuan Direction, direction of Keelung, direction of Yilan and defense of Taipei City. About one brigade in each direction, 3000-4000 people.
I attacked from three directions: along the country two (Formosa) high-speed from the southwest to the northeast, attacking the southwest of Taipei; along the Zhongshan high-speed from Hsinchu, Taoyuan, to the west of Taipei; from Keelung along the Formosa. High speed, attacking the northeast of Taipei City. At the same time, it closed the Jiangshui Expressway and the North Yishan Highway, truncated the East and West connections in the Greater Taipei Area, and formed a close-door situation in Taipei. The three directions are about 70, 60, and 30 kilometers respectively. They are calculated at an attack speed of 15 kilometers per hour, and attack the city for 2 to 5 hours. Assume that each line of the attack encounters 1-3 blocking positions. Each site is removed for one hour (bypassing bypassing, otherwise calling the superior firepower to destroy, not tangled with and stranded), plus 3 hours, a total of 5-8 Hours. If there is any unexpected situation, another 4 hours will be disposed of.
For example, if the entrance to the northeastern city of Taipei ceases to be an interchange, it is possible to use far-reaching fire to destroy the armed masters to kill all armed personnel on the road, clear the roadblocks with air-fuel bombs, and ensure the smooth passage of our troops. Go to Taipei City in directions "D+24h". At this time, the group of special forces and air commandos had controlled the vicinity of the Songshan Airport and Hengshan (Round Mountain) headquarters. The chief of the Taiwan Military Command, Tsai Ing-wen and the "Defense Minister," and others may be at the moment: First, they still remain in the command post and they flee. But how do you escape and where do you flee? Can you see where the next "Taiwan independence" leader fled? 》
PLA 071 dock landing ship
This is the deduction. The login time starts in the past (D+24h). At this time, the targets in major areas such as Taipei, Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, Hualien, Yilan, and Taitung have been destroyed or are tightly controlled by the firepower. One of them was captured; Taiwan’s major military and civilian airports and ports, and air defense positions Most of the communications hubs and electronic warfare positions have been destroyed or damaged, at least in “D+48h”; the commander-in-chief of Taiwan’s military has lost command effectiveness, and the main commander has been beheaded or fled, commanded, and lost with combat troops. Contact; Taiwan Island's external submarine communications cable was cut off, communications and reconnaissance satellites were temporarily blinded, and could not be connected within "D+48h," and foreign contacts were greatly compressed; Green Camp TV, radio stations, and network centers were destroyed, closed, or destroyed by me. Our special forces control; a large number of officers and soldiers of the Taiwanese army surrendered to prisoners of war.
In the above situation, if there are still a few green stations that still have resistance to the will, we will then take action: Take over the Hengshan (Ruanshan) headquarters, destroy the bases that are still holding stubborn resistance, and encircle the encroached towns to destroy the fleeing enemy. The island's naval vessels and so on, about 8 hours, the total time "D+32h". He then cleaned the battlefield and took prisoners for about 4 hours. So far there are 12 hours remaining from the three days (D-24h plus D+48h) for disposal of unforeseen circumstances.
Rocket Force Dongfeng-21D Medium Range Ballistic Missile
To conclude the show, the conclusion is very clear: less than three days.
In short, at most only the external forces of the United States, Japan, and Taiwan are allowed to spend three days. Three days of reinforcements did not arrive, or was blocked by Dongfeng 21D missiles and sea and air forces and firepower, and we could not go to Taiwan.
(The author of this article is the former deputy commander of the Nanjing Military Region, Wang Hongguang, former title: Combat Simulation: Do not take Taiwan in three days)
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