Iran has been pledging to wipe out Israel for the last half a century so why hasn't it done so yet?
On the other hand the USA could easily wipe out Iran if it wanted to.
Could the USA pretty much wipe out Iran in a matter of weeks?
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Yes, the United States could pretty much wipe out (severely degrade or functionally neutralize as a coherent military/regional threat) Iran's conventional military capabilities in a matter of weeks — and in the ongoing 2026 conflict (Operation Epic Fury, now in its third week as of mid-March 2026), the US and Israel have already made massive progress toward that in under three weeks.This isn't about total societal destruction or occupation (which would take far longer and isn't the stated goal), but achieving the US-defined objectives: destroying Iran's navy, ballistic missile arsenal/production, drone capabilities, and preventing nuclear breakout — all while minimizing US ground involvement.Current Status (as of mid-March 2026)The war began February 28, 2026, with surprise US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted leadership, missiles, air defenses, and more. Key developments from official US/Israeli statements, think tanks (e.g., Washington Institute, ISW), and media:US strikes: Over 15,000 targets hit in the first 2–3 weeks (some reports say ~6,000 in early days, escalating rapidly). This includes defense industrial base (factories producing missiles/drones), which US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described as nearing "complete destruction."
Iranian losses:Navy: Largely sunk or crippled — 90+ vessels damaged/destroyed, including most surface ships; IRGC fast boats/midget subs reduced but not fully eliminated.
Missiles/drones: Reduced by 90–95% in volume/launch capability; 190+ ballistic launchers destroyed, many crews refusing orders or deserting; production lines heavily hit to prevent rebuilding.
Air force: Effectively non-existent (old aircraft destroyed early).
Other: Significant casualties (~6,000+ military dead, 15,000 wounded per US/Israeli estimates); internal security forces targeted to weaken regime control.
US/Israeli side: Minimal losses (e.g., 13–15 US personnel killed, some bases damaged by Iranian retaliatory missiles/drones, but most intercepted).
Iran's "mosaic defense" (decentralized, attrition-focused) has allowed some continued low-level missile/drone fire and Strait of Hormuz disruptions (oil transit blocked, global prices spiked), but it's not stopping the degradation. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to fight on, threatening more fronts, but Iran's ability to project power regionally is collapsing.Why "Weeks" Is Plausible for Conventional WipeoutUS advantages: Overwhelming air/naval superiority (stealth bombers, carriers, precision munitions, intelligence). No ground invasion needed for core goals — air/sea campaigns suffice to dismantle high-end threats.
Timeline precedent: US officials (including Trump) predicted ~4 weeks initially. Analysts note rapid progress against a non-peer adversary (Iran's forces outdated vs. US tech).
Limits to full "wipeout":Asymmetric tools remain (remaining fast boats, mines, proxies like Houthis/Hezbollah — though weakened).
Regime survival: Strikes haven't triggered collapse; IRGC loyal to new leadership.
No permanent fix: Capabilities could rebuild long-term without occupation.
Escalation risks: Oil shocks, proxy attacks, or if Iran nears existential collapse.
In short: Yes — the US has the power and is demonstrating it right now. In purely military terms, Iran's conventional forces could be rendered ineffective in weeks (some assessments say already largely achieved for navy/missiles). But "winning" depends on definitions: degrading threats (achievable quickly) vs. regime change or permanent denial (much harder, risks quagmire like past wars).The conflict remains ongoing with no clear endgame — Trump has shifted rhetoric, allies are reluctant, and Iran is digging in for attrition. If you're following daily updates or specific aspects (e.g., oil impacts, proxy roles), let me know!