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美国在中东部署军备又呼吁对话?伊朗:不想跟美国人谈

2019-05-11 13:34 特朗普

dd52b2f43c224ac096cad08b6788dd18.jpeg


(资料图)伊朗抗议者焚烧美国国旗。图片来源:Wikimedia commons

记者 | 肖恩

退出伊朗核协议一年之际,美国继续加紧对伊制裁,并向中东地区部署军力。在“不排除动武选项”的同时,虽然美国总统特朗普也表示希望伊朗领导人能与美方对话,但伊方并不为所动。

近日,美国全面禁止伊朗原油出口、限制其核活动,并制裁该国铁钢铝铜等重要经济部门,试图切断伊朗的经济来源,这使美伊紧张局势上升到了新高度。5月9日,美国向海湾地区派遣航空母舰和轰炸机,进一步向伊朗施压。

美国国防部官员10日透露,美国将在波斯湾地区部署“爱国者”反导系统,加强在当地的海军力量,以应对伊朗的威胁。该系统将会替代此前美国在该地区部署的四个反导连,去年这四个反导连已经被撤除。但部署反导系统的具体时间和地点尚未透露。

此外,美国还将向中东派遣“阿灵顿”号(USS Arlington, LPD-24)两栖船坞运输舰。这艘军舰既能搭载海军陆战队员,还能装载水陆两用车和直升机,能用于多种军事行动。

另据美国空军中央司令部10日证实,多架B-52H型“同温层堡垒”轰炸机9日晚降落美军设在卡塔尔境内的乌代德空军基地。另有其他同型号轰炸机8日抵达“西南亚”某地;这批轰炸机隶属美国路易斯安那州巴克斯代尔空军基地第20轰炸机中队。按照美联社的说法,美军过去把阿联酋的迪哈夫拉空军基地和卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地列为“西南亚”。

美军“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航空母舰战斗群已在9日驶过苏伊士运河,开赴海湾。“林肯”号航母打击群原本就计划在几个星期后从地中海驶往中东地区,此次部署将原计划提前。航母进入红海之后,便可以通过曼德海峡,进入阿拉伯海,靠近霍尔木兹海峡。

上周,美国国防部安全合作局向国会通报称,国务院已经批准美国向巴林和阿联酋出售合计大约60亿美元的军火。

按照特朗普政府的说法,这一系列军事部署的起因是一份关于伊朗威胁的情报。情报指出,伊朗当局正调动其位于伊拉克和叙利亚的代理人武装力量攻击美国在该地区的军事人员和军事资产。此外,伊朗的导弹也对美国具有潜在威胁。一名美国军官透露,有证据指出,有伊朗人员正向一种名为阿拉伯帆船的小型船只装载导弹。

美国防部官员表示,自从白宫宣布第一轮军事部署以来,伊朗的行为并没有任何改变,促使美国作出了部署反导系统和航空母舰的决定。

美国运输部下属的海事局这周提出警告称,伊朗可能会将出现在波斯湾海域的带有美国国旗的油轮和其他商用船只作为攻击目标。

两名美国官员透露,军方已经接到指令,可能在中东地区进行更大规模的军事部署,准备应对与伊朗爆发的潜在军事冲突。而美国的下一步计划将会超过国防部这周的部署,包括向中东地区增派数万名士兵。

但据《纽约时报》报道,特朗普政府内部对于伊朗的态度不甚统一。一派认为美国应该限制对伊朗进行新的军事部署,更为强硬的一派则主张美国要准备好与伊朗大规模开战。情报分析中提到,面临经济困境和民间支持率下滑的伊朗政府,正试图挑起美国在军事上的过激反应,借此巩固其权力。

卡内基国际和平基金会专家勃朗(Jarrett Blanc)则表示,美国对伊朗采取的军事行动是一种“直接的挑衅”。

特朗普9日声称,希望伊朗能够就核问题与美国进行对话,但他不排除对伊朗动武的选项。而据美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)消息,美国已经与瑞士分享了一个能够联系到特朗普的电话号码,如果伊朗方面提出要求,瑞士就会将该号码分享给伊朗。但白宫没有对这一消息作出评论。

面对美国这一波强势操作,伊朗态度依然强硬。伊朗常驻联合国代表拉凡奇指责美国总统国家安全事务助理博尔顿捏造情报,怂恿美国总统特朗普向中东地区部署航母打击群和轰炸机。

伊朗方面还回应称,美国派航母不是什么新鲜事,这只是美国的心理战,不用在意。伊朗武装伊斯兰革命卫队海军少校爪哇尼(Yadollah Javani)表示,伊朗不会与美国人进行谈话。

5月8日,伊朗总统鲁哈尼宣布,已向伊朗核协议其他签署方递交了关于伊朗对美国单方面退出协议反制措施的信函,称伊朗将减少履行伊核协议中的承诺。

同天,鲁哈尼发表电视讲话,宣布60天内与除美国以外的伊核协议其他签署方磋商,如果诉求得不到满足,将不再接受对铀浓缩丰度的限制。另据伊朗新闻电视台9日报道,伊朗外长扎里夫周四表示,欧盟应该停止屈从于美国的指令,维护伊核协议。

夹在伊朗和美国之间的欧盟回应称,不会接受任何“最后通牒”。欧盟外交和安全政策高级代表莫盖里尼与英国、法国、德国外交部长9日发表联合声明,呼吁伊朗遵守2015年达成的伊朗核问题全面协议,说欧盟与英法德将致力于维护和全面执行这一协议。

伊朗2015年7月与美国等六国达成伊核协议,承诺限制核计划,换取国际社会解除对它的制裁。美国去年5月8日宣布退出伊核协议并恢复对伊朗制裁。



记者 | 肖恩

退出伊朗核协议一年之际,美国继续加紧对伊制裁,并向中东地区部署军力。在“不排除动武选项”的同时,虽然美国总统特朗普也表示希望伊朗领导人能与美方对话,但伊方并不为所动。

近日,美国全面禁止伊朗原油出口、限制其核活动,并制裁该国铁钢铝铜等重要经济部门,试图切断伊朗的经济来源,这使美伊紧张局势上升到了新高度。5月9日,美国向海湾地区派遣航空母舰和轰炸机,进一步向伊朗施压。

美国国防部官员10日透露,美国将在波斯湾地区部署“爱国者”反导系统,加强在当地的海军力量,以应对伊朗的威胁。该系统将会替代此前美国在该地区部署的四个反导连,去年这四个反导连已经被撤除。但部署反导系统的具体时间和地点尚未透露。

此外,美国还将向中东派遣“阿灵顿”号(USS Arlington, LPD-24)两栖船坞运输舰。这艘军舰既能搭载海军陆战队员,还能装载水陆两用车和直升机,能用于多种军事行动。

另据美国空军中央司令部10日证实,多架B-52H型“同温层堡垒”轰炸机9日晚降落美军设在卡塔尔境内的乌代德空军基地。另有其他同型号轰炸机8日抵达“西南亚”某地;这批轰炸机隶属美国路易斯安那州巴克斯代尔空军基地第20轰炸机中队。按照美联社的说法,美军过去把阿联酋的迪哈夫拉空军基地和卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地列为“西南亚”。

美军“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航空母舰战斗群已在9日驶过苏伊士运河,开赴海湾。“林肯”号航母打击群原本就计划在几个星期后从地中海驶往中东地区,此次部署将原计划提前。航母进入红海之后,便可以通过曼德海峡,进入阿拉伯海,靠近霍尔木兹海峡。

上周,美国国防部安全合作局向国会通报称,国务院已经批准美国向巴林和阿联酋出售合计大约60亿美元的军火。

按照特朗普政府的说法,这一系列军事部署的起因是一份关于伊朗威胁的情报。情报指出,伊朗当局正调动其位于伊拉克和叙利亚的代理人武装力量攻击美国在该地区的军事人员和军事资产。此外,伊朗的导弹也对美国具有潜在威胁。一名美国军官透露,有证据指出,有伊朗人员正向一种名为阿拉伯帆船的小型船只装载导弹。

美国防部官员表示,自从白宫宣布第一轮军事部署以来,伊朗的行为并没有任何改变,促使美国作出了部署反导系统和航空母舰的决定。

美国运输部下属的海事局这周提出警告称,伊朗可能会将出现在波斯湾海域的带有美国国旗的油轮和其他商用船只作为攻击目标。

两名美国官员透露,军方已经接到指令,可能在中东地区进行更大规模的军事部署,准备应对与伊朗爆发的潜在军事冲突。而美国的下一步计划将会超过国防部这周的部署,包括向中东地区增派数万名士兵。

但据《纽约时报》报道,特朗普政府内部对于伊朗的态度不甚统一。一派认为美国应该限制对伊朗进行新的军事部署,更为强硬的一派则主张美国要准备好与伊朗大规模开战。情报分析中提到,面临经济困境和民间支持率下滑的伊朗政府,正试图挑起美国在军事上的过激反应,借此巩固其权力。

卡内基国际和平基金会专家勃朗(Jarrett Blanc)则表示,美国对伊朗采取的军事行动是一种“直接的挑衅”。

特朗普9日声称,希望伊朗能够就核问题与美国进行对话,但他不排除对伊朗动武的选项。而据美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)消息,美国已经与瑞士分享了一个能够联系到特朗普的电话号码,如果伊朗方面提出要求,瑞士就会将该号码分享给伊朗。但白宫没有对这一消息作出评论。

面对美国这一波强势操作,伊朗态度依然强硬。伊朗常驻联合国代表拉凡奇指责美国总统国家安全事务助理博尔顿捏造情报,怂恿美国总统特朗普向中东地区部署航母打击群和轰炸机。

伊朗方面还回应称,美国派航母不是什么新鲜事,这只是美国的心理战,不用在意。伊朗武装伊斯兰革命卫队海军少校爪哇尼(Yadollah Javani)表示,伊朗不会与美国人进行谈话。

5月8日,伊朗总统鲁哈尼宣布,已向伊朗核协议其他签署方递交了关于伊朗对美国单方面退出协议反制措施的信函,称伊朗将减少履行伊核协议中的承诺。

同天,鲁哈尼发表电视讲话,宣布60天内与除美国以外的伊核协议其他签署方磋商,如果诉求得不到满足,将不再接受对铀浓缩丰度的限制。另据伊朗新闻电视台9日报道,伊朗外长扎里夫周四表示,欧盟应该停止屈从于美国的指令,维护伊核协议。

夹在伊朗和美国之间的欧盟回应称,不会接受任何“最后通牒”。欧盟外交和安全政策高级代表莫盖里尼与英国、法国、德国外交部长9日发表联合声明,呼吁伊朗遵守2015年达成的伊朗核问题全面协议,说欧盟与英法德将致力于维护和全面执行这一协议。

伊朗2015年7月与美国等六国达成伊核协议,承诺限制核计划,换取国际社会解除对它的制裁。美国去年5月8日宣布退出伊核协议并恢复对伊朗制裁。



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The United States is deploying armaments in the Middle East and calling for dialogue? Iran: I don't want to talk to Americans
2019-05-11 13:34 Trump

(Infographic) Iranian protesters burned the American flag. Image source: Wikimedia commons

Reporter | Sean

On the day of withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear deal, the United States continues to step up sanctions against Iraq and deploy military power to the Middle East. While "not excluding the option of using the military", although US President Trump also expressed the hope that the Iranian leader can talk to the US, the Iranian side is not moved.

Recently, the United States completely banned Iranian crude oil exports, restricted its nuclear activities, and sanctioned the country's major economic sectors such as iron, steel, aluminum and copper, trying to cut off Iran's economic sources, which brought the tension between the United States and Iraq to a new height. On May 9, the United States dispatched aircraft carriers and bombers to the Gulf region to further pressure Iran.

US Defense Department officials revealed on the 10th that the United States will deploy the "Patriot" anti-missile system in the Persian Gulf region to strengthen the local naval forces in response to the Iranian threat. The system will replace the four anti-missile companies deployed by the United States in the region, and the four anti-missing companies have been removed last year. However, the exact time and place of deploying the anti-missile system has not been disclosed.

In addition, the United States will dispatch the USS Arlington (LPD-24) amphibious dock transport ship to the Middle East. This warship can carry both Marines and amphibious vehicles and helicopters for a variety of military operations.

According to the US Air Force Central Command on the 10th, a number of B-52H "Small Stratum Fortress" bombers landed on the 9th night at the Udayd Air Force Base in Qatar. Other bombers of the same type arrived in "Southwest Asia" on the 8th; the bombers were attached to the 20th bomber squadron at Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, USA. According to the Associated Press, the US military used to list the Dihafra Air Base in the UAE and the Uday Air Force Base in Qatar as "Southwest Asia."

The US aircraft "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier battle group has sailed through the Suez Canal on the 9th and drove to the Gulf. The "Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group was originally planned to sail from the Mediterranean to the Middle East in a few weeks. The deployment will be planned ahead of schedule. After entering the Red Sea, the aircraft carrier can enter the Arabian Sea through the Mande Strait and is close to the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, the US Department of Defense Security Cooperation Bureau informed Congress that the State Department had approved US sales of approximately $6 billion in arms to Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

According to the Trump administration, the cause of this series of military deployments is an intelligence about the Iranian threat. Intelligence pointed out that the Iranian authorities are mobilizing their armed forces in Iraq and Syria to attack US military personnel and military assets in the region. In addition, Iranian missiles are also a potential threat to the United States. A US military official revealed that there is evidence that Iranian personnel are loading missiles into a small vessel called an Arabian sailboat.

US Defense Department officials said that since the White House announced the first round of military deployment, Iran's behavior has not changed, prompting the United States to make the decision to deploy anti-missile systems and aircraft carriers.

The US Maritime Administration, which is under the US Department of Transportation, warned this week that Iran may target tankers and other commercial vessels with the American flag in the waters of the Persian Gulf.

Two US officials revealed that the military has received instructions to conduct a larger military deployment in the Middle East and prepare for a potential military conflict with Iran. The next step for the United States will exceed the Department of Defense’s deployment this week, including the addition of tens of thousands of soldiers to the Middle East.

However, according to the New York Times, the Trump administration’s internal attitude toward Iran is not uniform. One group believes that the United States should restrict new military deployments to Iran, and the tougher ones advocate that the United States should be prepared to go to war with Iran on a large scale. The intelligence analysis mentioned that the Iranian government facing economic difficulties and the decline in private support rate is trying to provoke the US military's excessive reaction to strengthen its power.

Jarnecket Blanc, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the US military action against Iran is a "direct provocation."

Trump said on the 9th that he hopes Iran can talk to the United States on the nuclear issue, but he does not rule out the option of using force against Iran. According to CNN, the United States has shared a phone number with Switzerland that can contact Trump. If the Iranian request is made, Switzerland will share the number with Iran. But the White House did not comment on the news.

In the face of this strong operation of the United States, Iran’s attitude remains tough. Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Lafanci, accused the US President’s National Security Assistant Bolton of fabricating intelligence and smashing US President Trump to deploy aircraft carrier strikes and bombers to the Middle East.

The Iranian side also responded that the US carrier is not a new thing, it is only a psychological war in the United States, do not care. Iranian armed Islamic Revolutionary Guards Navy Major Yadallah Javani said that Iran will not talk to Americans.

On May 8, Iranian President Rohani announced that he had submitted to the other signatories of the Iranian nuclear agreement a letter regarding Iran’s counter-measures on the unilateral withdrawal of the United States, saying that Iran would reduce its commitments in fulfilling the Iranian nuclear agreement.

On the same day, Rohani made a televised speech and announced that he would negotiate with other signatories of the Iranian nuclear agreement other than the United States within 60 days. If the appeal is not met, he will no longer accept restrictions on the enrichment of uranium. According to Iranian News TV reported on the 9th, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif said on Thursday that the EU should stop complying with US directives and maintain the Iranian nuclear agreement.

The EU, sandwiched between Iran and the United States, responded that it would not accept any "ultimatums." The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Mogherini, and the British, French and German Foreign Ministers issued a joint statement on the 9th, calling on Iran to abide by the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue reached in 2015, saying that the EU and Britain, France and Germany will be committed to maintaining and fully implementing This agreement.

In July 2015, Iran reached an Iranian nuclear agreement with the United States and other six countries, pledging to limit the nuclear program in exchange for the international community to lift sanctions against it. The United States announced on May 8 that it had withdrawn from the Iranian nuclear agreement and resumed sanctions against Iran.

Reporter | Sean

On the day of withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear deal, the United States continues to step up sanctions against Iraq and deploy military power to the Middle East. While "not excluding the option of using the military", although US President Trump also expressed the hope that the Iranian leader can talk to the US, the Iranian side is not moved.

Recently, the United States completely banned Iranian crude oil exports, restricted its nuclear activities, and sanctioned the country's major economic sectors such as iron, steel, aluminum and copper, trying to cut off Iran's economic sources, which brought the tension between the United States and Iraq to a new height. On May 9, the United States dispatched aircraft carriers and bombers to the Gulf region to further pressure Iran.

US Defense Department officials revealed on the 10th that the United States will deploy the "Patriot" anti-missile system in the Persian Gulf region to strengthen the local naval forces in response to the Iranian threat. The system will replace the four anti-missile companies deployed by the United States in the region, and the four anti-missing companies have been removed last year. However, the exact time and place of deploying the anti-missile system has not been disclosed.

In addition, the United States will dispatch the USS Arlington (LPD-24) amphibious dock transport ship to the Middle East. This warship can carry both Marines and amphibious vehicles and helicopters for a variety of military operations.

According to the US Air Force Central Command on the 10th, a number of B-52H "Small Stratum Fortress" bombers landed on the 9th night at the Udayd Air Force Base in Qatar. Other bombers of the same type arrived in "Southwest Asia" on the 8th; the bombers were attached to the 20th bomber squadron at Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, USA. According to the Associated Press, the US military used to list the Dihafra Air Base in the UAE and the Uday Air Force Base in Qatar as "Southwest Asia."

The US aircraft "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier battle group has sailed through the Suez Canal on the 9th and drove to the Gulf. The "Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group was originally planned to sail from the Mediterranean to the Middle East in a few weeks. The deployment will be planned ahead of schedule. After entering the Red Sea, the aircraft carrier can enter the Arabian Sea through the Mande Strait and is close to the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, the US Department of Defense Security Cooperation Bureau informed Congress that the State Department had approved US sales of approximately $6 billion in arms to Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

According to the Trump administration, the cause of this series of military deployments is an intelligence about the Iranian threat. Intelligence pointed out that the Iranian authorities are mobilizing their armed forces in Iraq and Syria to attack US military personnel and military assets in the region. In addition, Iranian missiles are also a potential threat to the United States. A US military official revealed that there is evidence that Iranian personnel are loading missiles into a small vessel called an Arabian sailboat.

US Defense Department officials said that since the White House announced the first round of military deployment, Iran's behavior has not changed, prompting the United States to make the decision to deploy anti-missile systems and aircraft carriers.

The US Maritime Administration, which is under the US Department of Transportation, warned this week that Iran may target tankers and other commercial vessels with the American flag in the waters of the Persian Gulf.

Two US officials revealed that the military has received instructions to conduct a larger military deployment in the Middle East and prepare for a potential military conflict with Iran. The next step for the United States will exceed the Department of Defense’s deployment this week, including the addition of tens of thousands of soldiers to the Middle East.

However, according to the New York Times, the Trump administration’s internal attitude toward Iran is not uniform. One group believes that the United States should restrict new military deployments to Iran, and the tougher ones advocate that the United States should be prepared to go to war with Iran on a large scale. The intelligence analysis mentioned that the Iranian government facing economic difficulties and the decline in private support rate is trying to provoke the US military's excessive reaction to strengthen its power.

Jarnecket Blanc, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the US military action against Iran is a "direct provocation."

Trump said on the 9th that he hopes Iran can talk to the United States on the nuclear issue, but he does not rule out the option of using force against Iran. According to CNN, the United States has shared a phone number with Switzerland that can contact Trump. If the Iranian request is made, Switzerland will share the number with Iran. But the White House did not comment on the news.

In the face of this strong operation of the United States, Iran’s attitude remains tough. Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Lafanci, accused the US President’s National Security Assistant Bolton of fabricating intelligence and smashing US President Trump to deploy aircraft carrier strikes and bombers to the Middle East.

The Iranian side also responded that the US carrier is not a new thing, it is only a psychological war in the United States, do not care. Iranian armed Islamic Revolutionary Guards Navy Major Yadallah Javani said that Iran will not talk to Americans.

On May 8, Iranian President Rohani announced that he had submitted to the other signatories of the Iranian nuclear agreement a letter regarding Iran’s counter-measures on the unilateral withdrawal of the United States, saying that Iran would reduce its commitments in fulfilling the Iranian nuclear agreement.

On the same day, Rohani made a televised speech and announced that he would negotiate with other signatories of the Iranian nuclear agreement other than the United States within 60 days. If the appeal is not met, he will no longer accept restrictions on the enrichment of uranium. According to Iranian News TV reported on the 9th, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif said on Thursday that the EU should stop complying with US directives and maintain the Iranian nuclear agreement.

The EU, sandwiched between Iran and the United States, responded that it would not accept any "ultimatums." The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Mogherini, and the British, French and German Foreign Ministers issued a joint statement on the 9th, calling on Iran to abide by the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue reached in 2015, saying that the EU and Britain, France and Germany will be committed to maintaining and fully implementing This agreement.

In July 2015, Iran reached an Iranian nuclear agreement with the United States and other six countries, pledging to limit the nuclear program in exchange for the international community to lift sanctions against it. The United States announced on May 8 that it had withdrawn from the Iranian nuclear agreement and resumed sanctions against Iran.
 

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May 11, 2019 Topic: Security Blog Brand: The Buzz Tags: IranWarNavyMilitaryStrait Of Hormuz
The U.S.-Iran Naval War of 2019: What It Could Look Like

Would Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, could it, and would the United States reply by force of arms if Tehran made the attempt?

by James Holmes









Would Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, could it, and would the United States reply by force of arms if Tehran made the attempt?
Maybe, maybe, and yes. There is precedent: it assailed merchant and naval shipping during the “Tanker War” of the 1980s. Then, it was attacking the export earnings of its archfoe Iraq. The United States, the mullahs’ Great Satan, isn’t nearly so dependent as was Saddam Hussein’s Iraq on merchantmen plying the Persian Gulf. Washington nonetheless sees important interests at stake in this contested waterway—and that gives Tehran an opportunity to inflict pain should it choose.
America may not depend on Persian Gulf oil and natural gas, but its allies and trading partners do. It maintains close alliances in the region through the Gulf Cooperation Council, and would shirk these commitments at its peril. Nor could Washington allow a substantial fraction of U.S. maritime might, namely the Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet, to be stranded because Iranian forces had interposed themselves between Gulf waters and the broader Indian Ocean. Economic, diplomatic, and martial imperatives add up to a rationale that neither the Trump White House nor any other could ignore.
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Short of quitting the Gulf region outright, the United States must fight to uphold its standing there.
Prediction is a fool’s errand in the mercurial world of international politics and warfare, but it is possible to glimpse certain broad contours of a naval war between the Islamic Republic and the United States. Iran can turn maritime geography to advantage, for one thing, waging irregular maritime warfare in and around the Strait of Hormuz. This is a setting with which Iranian mariners are intimately acquainted and where they bestride the home ground. Never discount the homefield advantage.


This narrow sea ranges from about 18 to about 51 nautical miles wide and is deep enough for submarines to remain underwater and elude detection while traversing it. At the northernmost point of the transit, though, the shipping lane narrows to only about 1.6 nautical miles—in large part because the water is too shallow at some places to permit deep-draft vessels to pass safely. Nor can traffic take a straight course through the Strait of Hormuz, as it does through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the Arabian Peninsula’s west. Ships take a northerly course, then make a sharp leftward turn toward the southwest off the northern tip of Oman before making a slight right turn to proceed westerly.
The Strait of Hormuz, then, demands that shipping hazard a fairly long transit while making a sharp maneuver at a predictable—and thus easily targeted—spot on the map. The Strait’s topography poses little trouble under routine peacetime circumstances, but wartime is another matter. Ships essaying the transit do so while constantly under the shadow of Iranian shore-based anti-ship weaponry such as cruise missiles and tactical aircraft, not to mention swarms of small surface combatants fielded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Islamic Republic’s modest fleets of minelayers and Russian-built Kilo-class diesel submarines further compound the problem.


Such weaponry is challenging on the high seas. It is genuinely menacing in confined waters, where ships have little space to maneuver for defensive or offensive purposes. But that isn’t the last obstacle to maritime movement. Even after exiting the Strait, inbound vessels must pass within easy reach of Abu Musa and the Tunb Islands, which are claimed both by Iran and the United Arab Emirates but are under Iranian military control.
In short, this is a setting tailor-made for an inferior local power such as the Islamic Republic to mount an effective access- or area-denial strategy—making trouble for local antagonists and powerful outsiders if not prevailing outright. In light of the forbidding surroundings, then, a U.S.-Iran war wouldn’t be a naval war at all in the strict sense of the term. There would be no open-ocean rumble pitting roughly symmetrical battle fleets against each other. Nor does Iran need the wherewithal for such an engagement in order to accomplish its goals. It doesn’t take glamour platforms like aircraft carriers, cruisers, or destroyers to block a confined sea. Wily defenders can harness sea mines, subs, or fleet-of-foot surface craft to harass shipping or stop it altogether.


Guerrilla warfare, not the traditional sea fight, makes a better analogy for Iranian maritime strategy. Iranian defenders will concentrate asymmetric firepower and effort at the narrowest and most convoluted points in the Strait, where an enemy’s whereabouts are known in advance, targeting is easy, and escape is hard. They will harry oncoming vessels with mines, missiles, and torpedoes as they approach the critical juncture and after they pass by, if they do. But the most confined waters on the nautical chart represent the likeliest battlegrounds.
So, don’t make the mistake of comparing force structures and concluding that the U.S. Navy would steamroller the Iranian armed forces by dint of its total number of warships, aircraft, and armaments. A mere fraction of U.S. maritime forces will square off against the combined might of the Iranian military, including not just seagoing forces but shore-based fire support. How big a fraction of U.S. maritime forces would take part in a Persian Gulf brawl depends on myriad factors, including how much the U.S. political leadership prizes U.S. interests in the Gulf, what’s happening elsewhere around the Eurasian periphery, and how the leadership ranks the Gulf compared to commitments in hotspots such as the South China Sea or Mediterranean Sea.


Whatever fraction Washington can spare constitutes the measuring stick for Iranian prospects in battle. If Iranian forces can defeat that fraction, they are adequate unto Tehran’s purposes. If not, American prospects brighten. Success in this endeavor, in other words, is not foreordained for the U.S. armed services. Nor does repositioning an aircraft-carrier strike group to the Gulf’s vicinity, as the Trump administration did this week, furnish such a guarantee. In 2002, during the exercise “Millennium Challenge,” U.S. Marine lieutenant general Paul Van Riper, playing the red team, pummeled a U.S. Navy carrier task force by deploying the resources at Tehran’s disposal imaginatively.
What an American could do, the locals could presumably do better. Iran is a prospective foe worth taking seriously.


And lastly, it’s worth pointing out that the opportunity costs of losing in the Persian Gulf—or even of winning at high cost—could prove more painful than the direct costs manifest in battle losses. If you take the Pentagon leadership at its word, the Gulf region now constitutes a secondary theater of endeavor for the U.S. armed forces, taking a backseat to theaters where America and its allies are at odds with great powers like China and Russia. However compelling U.S. interests in the Middle East, that is, they must yield to more pressing interests at stake in great-power strategic competition.
How to apportion effort among multiple enterprises? Martial sage Carl von Clausewitz derives an invaluable formula for allocating resources and effort to meet competing demands. In the classroom I call it his Three Rs: reward, resources, and risk. Clausewitz cautions against an undertaking unless it promises “exceptional” rewards and unless commanders enjoy “decisive superiority,” meaning surplus capacity, in the primary theater. If the strategic circumstances meet that test, military magnates can siphon resources from the main theater without running undue risk to what the nation’s agenda-setters deem most crucial.


Or as Admiral Lord Jacky Fisher, the first sea lord of Great Britain’s Royal Navy, told First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill in the years preceding World War I: “It is futile to be strong in the subsidiary theater of war and not overwhelmingly supreme in the decisive theater.” Risking what you value most for what you value less is folly. Fisher was arguing for a division of labor whereby the French Navy guarded the Mediterranean Sea while the Royal Navy saw to the Atlantic Ocean. Such an arrangement would permit each of the soon-to-be allies to husband its fleet in one expanse—and bolster Anglo-French marine supremacy in both.
The same Clausewitzian calculus must govern how Washington parcels out resources among primary and secondary theaters while taking account of risks and rewards. Whatever fraction of U.S. forces was lost or damaged in combat against Iran would be unavailable to help face down China or Russia—and America’s capacity to achieve its chief goals could suffer for the sake of a subsidiary commitment in the Middle East.


In other words, the White House must not launch into military adventures in the Persian Gulf without serious forethought. Sobriety—not bravado—must prevail within decision-making circles. The shades of Clausewitz and Fisher demand it.
 

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Citing Iranian Threat, U.S. Sends Carrier Group and Bombers to Persian Gulf

The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln last month in the Mediterranean Sea off Spain. It has been rerouted to the Persian Gulf.CreditCati Cladera/EPA, via Shutterstock
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The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln last month in the Mediterranean Sea off Spain. It has been rerouted to the Persian Gulf.CreditCreditCati Cladera/EPA, via Shutterstock
By Edward Wong
  • May 5, 2019


WASHINGTON — The White House announced on Sunday that the United States was sending an aircraft carrier strike group and Air Force bombers to the Middle East because of “troubling and escalatory indications and warnings” related to Iran.
The deployment was intended “to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force,” said John R. Bolton, the national security adviser, in a statement released Sunday night.
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The announcement did not give any further information on the reasons for the commitment of military forces. An American military official said on Sunday night that whatever threat Mr. Bolton cited had most likely emerged in the previous 24 to 48 hours because as of late Friday, military analysts were not tracking any new, imminent or clearly defined Iranian or Iranian-backed threats against Americans in Iraq or the region.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, when asked by reporters about Mr. Bolton’s statement on a flight to Finland, said, “It’s something we’ve been working on for a little while.”
“It is absolutely the case that we’ve seen escalatory action from the Iranians, and it is equally the case that we will hold the Iranians accountable for attacks on American interests,” he said. “The fact that those actions take place, if they do, by some third-party proxy, whether that’s a Shia militia group or the Houthis or Hezbollah, we will hold the Iranians — Iranian leadership — directly accountable for that.”
There have been escalating rounds of fatal violence between Hamas, the armed Palestinian group in Gaza, and the Israeli military in recent days, but an American official said that was not related to the military ramp-up in the Persian Gulf. Although Iran has provided financing to Hamas, there is no sign that it was involved in the recent rocket attacks against Israel.

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“The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps or regular Iranian forces,” Mr. Bolton said in the statement.
The carrier group heading to the Persian Gulf is that of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, which has been in the Mediterranean Sea. There is no carrier strike group currently in the Persian Gulf, but such groups often transit through those waters since the Suez Canal is in the region.
At the end of April, the Abraham Lincoln and its fleet of accompanying ships trained alongside other American vessels and military units from the United Kingdom, Spain and France.
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A Pentagon spokesman confirmed the military moves as outlined in Mr. Bolton’s statement but declined to provide more details.
“We will not distinguish between attacks from Shia militias in #Iraq and the #IRGC that controls them,” Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican of Florida and member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Monday morning on Twitter. “Any attack by these groups against U.S. forces will be considered an attack by #Iran & responded to accordingly.”
The Trump administration has taken a hard-line policy against Iran and has said it aims to force Iran to lessen or end its support for Shiite militias and other groups across the Middle East.

John R. Bolton, the national security adviser, said that the redeployment of forces was “to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.”CreditTom Brenner for The New York Times
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John R. Bolton, the national security adviser, said that the redeployment of forces was “to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.”CreditTom Brenner for The New York Times
One year ago, President Trump withdrew from a nuclear deal that world powers had reached with Iran in 2015, and he has since imposed harsh sanctions intended to force political change in Tehran. Mr. Bolton and Mr. Pompeo have been the leaders in formulating the new hard-line policies, often in direct opposition to recommendations from the Defense Department and C.I.A.
Last month, the Trump administration designated the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. The move imposes economic penalties and travel restrictions on members of the group, a unit of Iran’s military, and anyone else who deals with it. The terrorist designation was the first time the United States had made that move against a part of another nation’s government.
Although Mr. Bolton and Mr. Pompeo pushed hard for the designation, defense and intelligence officials opposed it out of concern Iran would take reciprocal action against American military personnel and intelligence operatives or launch attacks.
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On Tuesday, President Hassan Rouhani of Iran signed a bill into law that declared all American troops in the Middle East terrorists and labeled the United States government a state sponsor of terrorism.
On Thursday, the Trump administration allowed oil purchase waivers for Iran to expire, in an effort to cut off all revenue that Iran gets from export of its oil. Last November, when it imposed major sanctions on Iran, the United States gave six-month waivers to eight nations to continue buying oil. American officials had signaled to the countries this spring they would continue the waivers, but made a surprise announcement last month that the waivers would end. China and Turkey, two of the customers, have said they oppose the American sanctions.
On Friday, American officials announced they would extend most waivers that allow some countries to work with Iran on a limited civil nuclear program, but said the waivers would be good only for 90 days.
Last month, Republican and Democratic senators asked Mr. Pompeo whether the administration would explicitly seek congressional approval before trying to enter a war with Iran. Mr. Pompeo demurred, saying lawyers should answer that question.
Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, insisted that the United States could not attack Iran as part of a war authorization allowing the use of military force against Al Qaeda and other extremist groups deemed responsible for the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
Mr. Pompeo has said Iran bears more responsibility for ongoing violence in the Middle East than any other actor, even though the American military has been focused on fighting the Islamic State, a Sunni extremist group to which the Shiite government of Iran is opposed. The Iranian military has helped the Shiite-led government of Iraq combat the Islamic State, which had seized territory in northern Iraq and eastern Syria.
The Trump administration also has criticized Iran for its support of Hezbollah, the Lebanese political and military group, and of the Houthis, a Shiite rebel group in Yemen.
Iranian forces and their proxy fighters have generally refrained from attacking American troops in recent years.
At the height of the Iraq war in the mid-2000s, Iranian military officials helped train Iraqi Shiite militias to fight American troops and aided in the building of powerful explosive devices used against American armored vehicles. The Pentagon has said at least 603 American personnel were killed in Iraq by Iran-backed fighters — 17 percent of all Americans killed in hostile action there.
Last month, a bomber task force composed of six Air Force B-52 bombers and 450 troops from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana returned to the United States after training in Britain. It is unclear if the same unit is redeploying to the Middle East.



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As B-52 bombers arrive in region, defiant Iran says U.S. "will not dare" attack

By Tucker Reals

Updated on: May 10, 2019 / 11:03 AM / CBS News







The face-off between Iran and the United States continued to escalate on Friday as the Islamic Republic's elite Revolutionary Guards goaded the Trump administration with a dare, just a day after American B-52 bombers landed in the region. CBS News senior national defense correspondent David Martin said Thursday that all four B-52 Stratofortress bombers ordered to the Persian Gulf by the White House had arrived at the Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar.
The White House deployed the bombers to the Gulf, along with the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its associated vessels, over the weekend. While the Lincoln was deployed to replace a different U.S. carrier that was rotated out of the Gulf last month, there are few more irrefutable and visible demonstrations of U.S. military might than the deployment of a carrier strike group.
us-b-52-stratofortress-al-udeid-ap-19130129641145.jpg
A May 9, 2019 photo released by the U.S. Air Force shows a B-52H Stratofortress bomber assigned to the 20th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron parked on the ramp at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar. HANDOUT
Iran has dismissed the bombers' presence and the looming arrival of the Lincoln as "psychological warfare" by Washington.
President Trump's national security adviser John Bolton has said the deployment was a warning to Iran after "escalatory indications" that Tehran was preparing to carry out a possible attack on U.S. forces or allies in the Middle East.

Nuclear Iran More

Iran claims it is Washington levelling the threats, and on Friday the Revolutionary Guards' deputy chief for political affairs said his country had ruled out any negotiations with the U.S., suggesting it couldn't take the Trump administration at its word.


"No talks will be held with the Americans and the Americans will not dare take military action against us," the Guards' Yadollah Javani said, according to Iran's state-controlled Tasnim news agency. He said Iran "sees America as unreliable."
A senior Iranian cleric, one of about 80 who currently sit on the government's Assembly of Experts, lashed out on Friday at the U.S. military posturing, suggesting that the entire U.S. Navy strike group could be destroyed with a single Iranian missile.
"Their billion (-dollar) fleet can be destroyed with one missile,'" Ayatollah Yousef Tabatabai-Nejad was quoted as saying by Iran's state-run ISNA news agency.
The anti-American rhetorical flourish was typical of Iran's senior clerics, who have significant influence in the country, but little real power. All final decisions in the country are made by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
"Indications and warnings"
Bolton did not provide details on Sunday of the "troubling and escalatory indications and warnings" that Iran was plotting a possible attack, but said the Trump administration wanted to send a "clear and unmistakable" message that "unrelenting force" would meet any attack on U.S. interests or allies.
"The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces," he said.
Martin said U.S. officials started noticing more "heated rhetoric" from Tehran in April, when the U.S. declared the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization, but it escalated after the Trump administration said it intended to bring Iranian oil exports down to zero by ending waivers that allowed a few countries to keep buying their petroleum products.


Officials told Martin that U.S. intelligence began picking up "chatter" about Iranian-backed Shiite Muslim militias in Iraq attacking Americans in the country, where there are still about 5,200 U.S. troops deployed.
On Friday, the U.S. Maritime Administration issued a fresh warning to commercial shipping companies, saying: "Reporting indicates heightened Iranian readiness to conduct offensive operations against U.S. forces and interests" in the Persian Gulf, the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and other regional waterways.
The advisory said that from the beginning of May, there was "an increased possibility that Iran and/or its regional proxies could take action against U.S. and partner interests, including oil production infrastructure, after recently threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran or its proxies could respond by targeting commercial vessels, including oil tankers, or U.S. military vessels in the Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, or the Persian Gulf."
Speaking to CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garratt for "The Takeout" podcast this week, White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney noted the presence of U.S. troops, allies and assets in the region and made it clear they would be defended, but he added unequivocally: "We are not going to war with Iran."
us-navy-uss-abraham-lincoln-suez-canal.jpg
A view from aboard the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) as it transits the Suez Canal on May 9, 2019. The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (ABECSG) was deployed to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in order to defend American forces and interests in the region amid warnings of a possible attack by Iran. US Navy/MCSN Dan Snow How we got here
The antagonism between Iran and the U.S. has been ratcheting up steadily since President Trump took office. Even before he became president, Mr. Trump vowed to pull America out of the nuclear deal struck between his predecessor, President Barack Obama, Iran and other world powers.
Mr. Trump has always argued that the agreement, which saw Iran freeze its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international financial sanctions, was too generous to Tehran. The White House pulled the U.S. out of the agreement in May 2018, much to the consternation of not just Iran, but all of the other parties to the deal; China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the European Union.
Since then the White House has re-instated the U.S. sanctions that were lifted under the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and levied new, even harsher punishments against Iran.
Pointing at Iran's backing of militant groups in Syria and Iraq, and what the White House has said are continuing efforts to advance its ballistic missile program, the U.S. announced the decision last week to try and completely stop Iran earning any money from its energy exports by ending the waiver program noted above.


In reaction to the U.S. moves, Iran announced this week its own partial withdrawal from the nuclear pact, saying it will renege on some of the terms. Crucially, Tehran also warned that if Europe and the other remaining signatories cannot reach agreement within two months on a way to keep the nuclear deal -- or some new agreement -- viable, they will start enriching uranium to higher levels again.
That move would put Iran back on a short path toward the ability to build a nuclear weapon -- a prospect the JCPOA had extended by many years. Both Israel and the U.S. have made it clear that Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapons capacity.
European leaders said Thursday that they still backed the deal with Iran, but they rejected Tehran's threat.
"We reject any ultimatums and we will assess Iran's compliance on the basis of Iran's performance regarding its nuclear-related commitments" under a 2015 deal, the EU, Britain, France and Germany said in a joint statement issued Friday. The statement suggested an unwillingness by the European powers to stick their necks too far above the parapet for the sake of salvaging the nuclear deal, given the Trump administration's increasingly tough stance.
First published on May 10, 2019 / 7:09 AM

© 2019 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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US official: Iran has moved missiles to Persian Gulf
Intelligence showing that Iran is likely moving short-range ballistic missiles aboard boats in the Persian Gulf was one of the critical reasons the US decided to move an aircraft carrier strike group and B-52 bombers into the region, according to several US officials with direct knowledge of the situation.
Source: CNN
 

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Israel warned US about possible Iranian attack in Gulf: report
The U.S. Air Force is deploying B-52 Stratofortress bombers to the Gulf in response to an alleged Iranian plan to attack American forces in the region • Mossad reportedly outlined a number of scenarios in which the Iranians would attack.

by i24NEWS and Israel Hayom Staff

Published on 2019-05-08 13:28
Last modified: 2019-05-10 07:29








Mossad reportedly outlined a number of scenarios in which the Iranians would attack
The U.S. Air Force is deploying massive B-52 Stratofortress bombers to the Gulf in response to an alleged possible plan by Iran to attack American forces in the region, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency warned the United States about a possible plot by Iran to attack U.S. interests in the Gulf before Washington announced it would send an aircraft carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East in a “clear and unmistakable” message to Iran, Israel’s Channel 13 reported on Monday.
Several nuclear-capable B-52s are heading to the region along with an aircraft carrier task force following what the Defense Department called “recent and clear indications that Iranian and Iranian proxy forces were making preparations to possibly attack U.S. forces.”
“The deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force are considered a prudent step in response to indications of heightened Iranian readiness to conduct offensive operations against U.S. forces and our interests,” said acting Pentagon spokesman Charles Summers in a statement.
“We emphasize the White House statement that we do not seek war with the Iranian regime, but we will defend U.S. personnel, our allies and our interests in the region.”
Earlier on Monday, U.S. National Security adviser John Bolton announced that “in response to a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings, the United States is deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force to the U.S. Central Command region.”
Details of the threat have not been disclosed, but Navy Captain Bill Urban, the spokesman for the U.S. military’s Central Command, which spans the Middle East, said the threat could be land-based or maritime.
Channel 13 cited Israeli officials that Bolton was warned about the possible Iranian plot in a meeting with Israel’s national security adviser Meir Ben Shabbat in Washington two weeks ago. The official said that Mossad outlined a number of scenarios in which the Iranians would attack.
“It is still unclear to us what the Iranians are trying to do and how they are planning to do it, but it is clear to us that the Iranian temperature is on the rise as a result of the growing U.S. pressure campaign against them, and they are considering retaliating against U.S. interests in the Gulf,” the official reportedly said.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said later on Monday that it was “absolutely the case” that the U.S. had seen “escalatory actions” from the Iranians.
“It is equally the case that we will hold the Iranians accountable for attacks on American interests,” Pompeo said.
But Iran said U.S. concerns in the Middle East stems from the fact that it is “despised by the people of the region— blaming Iran won’t reverse that.”
This article was originally published by i24NEWS. Read more at https://www.i24news.tv/en.
 

tun_dr_m

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdof...-any-clashes-that-now-take-place-in-the-gulf/

Iran: 'Terrorist U.S. To Blame For Any Clashes That Now Take Place In The Gulf'





Zak Doffman
Contributor


Cybersecurity I write about security and surveillance.





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BLOOMBERG NEWS

"[Iranian and U.S.] forces, which have been reciprocally designated as terrorist groups, may engage in clashes in the Persian Gulf or any other region, [and] there is no doubt that the U.S. will be held accountable for such a situation." So came the warning from Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, speaking on Tuesday at an event in Turkey.

Also on Tuesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani signed into law the bill designating all U.S. forces operating in the Middle East as terrorists and the U.S. government itself as a sponsor of terrorism. Under the new law, "CENTCOM as well as forces, organizations and bodies under its command, are declared terrorist and providing any assistance — including military, intelligence, financial, technical, educational, administrative and logistical — to these forces in order to counter the IRGC and the Islamic Republic of Iran amounts to collaboration in an act of terror."

It is unclear what this new law will mean in practice and how it will change Iran's behavior in the region, but as the U.S. builds up pressure on Iran, both through the designation of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization and through the end to oil sanctions waivers, the rhetoric coming out of Teheran has predictably escalated.





On Sunday, Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad claimed that U.S. Middle East allies are intent on driving currently escalating tensions with Iran all the way to conflict. Casting allegations against Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as National Security Adviser John Bolton, Javad Zarif said "they have all shown an interest in dragging the United States into a conflict." Asked if this means regime change, Zarif said, "at least."

The same day, an Iranian news agency published drone footage that it claimed showed "U.S. warships being closely monitored in the Persian Gulf waters, south of Iran." A U.S. Naval Forces Central Command spokesperson responded that the warship in question had not been in the Persian Gulf since 2016, but the point had been made.
 

tun_dr_m

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The water won't be calm for Singapore! Omen is clear!







https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...erspout-singapore-seen-tanjong-pagar-11524330
Waterspout startles residents in central Singapore

A waterspout was spotted in central Singapore on May 11, 2019.

11 May 2019 11:38AM (Updated: 11 May 2019 03:01PM)
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SINGAPORE: Some residents in central Singapore were startled by what they thought was a tornado on Saturday morning (May 11).
The "tornado" was in fact a waterspout, which is caused by intense thunderstorms, and is formed when columns of water are sucked to the base of the clouds.


Some social media users took videos and photos of the sight and posted them online.




Ms Grace Ng, a resident at the 76 Shenton condominium, said she spotted the waterspout at around 9am.


"The waterspout was very weak at first, and it kept disappearing and reappearing. But it came closer and then it grew larger. So we managed to take a good shot when the sky was very clear," she said.
The waterspout weakened when it reached the coast, and disappeared a few minutes after that, she added.
The whole thing lasted about 15 to 20 minutes, Ms Ng said, adding that it started to rain heavily after the waterspout disappeared.




Mr David Johnson and his wife Ms Teri Caldwell saw the waterspout from their home at Newton GEMS at around 8.45am. There were dark clouds but no strong winds or rain at the time, Mr Johnson said.
"It didn't last very long, maybe 10 minutes at most," he said.
Around 30 minutes after he saw the waterspout, it started raining, he added.


The National Environment Agency said previously that around three occurrences of waterspouts over Singapore waters are reported every year.
Waterspouts tend to have a short life cycle of up to tens of minutes and they usually dissipate rapidly upon reaching the coast, it said.
READ: 5 unusual natural world sightings in Singapore

It also noted waterspouts are generally associated with intense thunderstorms over the sea.
However, it is difficult to forecast the occurrence of waterspouts because not all thunderstorms lead to the formation of waterspouts.
In January last year, a waterspout off the east coast of Singapore caused strong winds and sent boats and rubbish bins flying at East Coast Park.
 

winnipegjets

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Iran should respond to the US threat by placing mines on the Strait of Hormuz.

The Ayatollahs should play the game ...let's see how far Trump will go. Americans chicken out when thousands of their soldiers return in bags.
 

Ang4MohTrump

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Iran should respond to the US threat by placing mines on the Strait of Hormuz.

The Ayatollahs should play the game ...let's see how far Trump will go. Americans chicken out when thousands of their soldiers return in bags.


US Navy Fleet can run about, Israel cannot run. Nail Israel which is Dotard's Anus! Big Stationary Fixed Missile Target! Fire!
 

winnipegjets

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Israel under Babi deserves to be roasted. If Israelis hang Babi and seek to make peace, the world will be a better place.

#Hangbabi.
 

KuanTi01

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Iran is no pushover like Iraq or Libya! It is more like Turkey in terms of military prowess. Let the USA be forewarned!
 

Ang4MohTrump

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Iran is no pushover like Iraq or Libya! It is more like Turkey in terms of military prowess. Let the USA be forewarned!


Turk still cannot compare. Iran is making nuke and short of just a formal detonation test. Turks no nuke.

Allah gave Iran lots of nukes, one of world biggest Uranium mine in Iran.

http://www.isisnucleariran.org/sites/detail/uranium-mining/

Nuclear Sites
Uranium Mining
The Saghand Mine


The Saghand Mine, located in Yazd in central Iran, is designed to extract low grade hard rock ore bodies through conventional underground mining techniques. The annual estimated production output of the mine is 50 tonnes of uranium.

According to IAEA reports, Chinese experts assessed that the mine contains approximately 1,000 tons of uranium. For some perspective on what this means, high-grade ore-bodies can contain several percent uranium (U). Low-grade bodies contain 0.1% U. Concentrations under 0.075% (750 ppm) are generally considered uneconomical to mine. Iran’s ore falls under this category, with concentrations of only 553 ppm.

Iran ostensibly began mining at this site on April 9, 2013.1
Ardakan Yellowcake Production Plant

The Yellowcake Production Plant at Ardakan, typically called a mill, processes uranium ore from the Saghand mine into uranium ore concentrate (yellowcake). It is designed to process 50 tonnes of uranium per year, a capacity matching that of the Saghand mine. The installation of the infrastructure and processing buildings at Ardakan began in 2004.

On April 8, 2013, Ardakan Governor Ahmad Kamali announced that the Saghand mine and the Ardakan yellowcake production plant would soon come “on stream.”2 Iranian TV ran this video showcasing the facilities on April 19, 2013.
Gchine Mine and Mill

The Gchine mine is located in southern Iran near Bandar Abbas. The associated mill is located on site. The estimated production capacity for the mine is 21 tonnes of uranium per year. Questions were raised by the IAEA regarding the ownership of the mine and its relationship to Iran’s military. A detailed description of the IAEA’s discussions with Iran regarding the mine’s provenance and current status is contained in the February 2008 IAEA report.

The IAEA reported in 2004 that the Gchine mine and co-located mill had begun production and would eventually produce 21 tons of uranium per year. The uranium, which contains “low but variable grade uranium ore,” is located in near surface deposits that are open-pit mined.

This facility is controversial for two reasons. Iran appears not to have disclosed it to the IAEA in 2003 when Iran initially reported its fuel cycle activities to the IAEA (the November 2003 report contains a detailed list of facilities and sites associate with the nuclear fuel cycle in Iran, but makes no mention of Gchine, or the Bandar Abbas site, as it was identified by an Iranian opposition group in 2004).cite report

Second, the mine was developed by Kimia Maadan, a private company linked to the so-called alleged studies documents that suggest possible nuclear weapons-related research and development by Iran.

The output of the Gchine mine is inadequate to meet the refueling requirements of a single 1,000 MW electric power reactor, which would require approximately 250 tonnes of uranium to yield approximately 25 tonnes of low enriched uranium, enough for a single reloading of the reactor’s fuel (the initial fueling would require three times as much). Gchine produces only a fraction of the uranium needed to keep the Esfahan uranium conversion plant operating at both current and projected levels.3

However, the output of the Gchine mine is adequate for a nuclear weapons program based on highly enriched uranium. Such a program needs far less yellowcake than a commercial nuclear power program. In fact, the information in the possession of the IAEA suggests that the Gchine mine was originally intended as a source of uranium for a military nuclear program. After the exposure of Iran’s numerous secret nuclear sites in 2002-2004, Iran transferred ownership to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and relabeled the site a civilian uranium mine.

See more ISIS work assessing Iran’s yellowcake capabilities here.

For more information check: Related Reports



https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-scaling-up-uranium-production-and-mining-atomic-chief-says/



home page



30 tons of yellowcake shipped to a conversion facility
Iran scaling up uranium production and mining, atomic chief says
Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Islamic Republic’s Atomic Energy Organization, says country is set to produce 300 tons of yellowcake per year


By TOI staff 1 February 2019, 2:54 pm 1




Iran's Vice President and Head of the Atomic Energy Organization Ali Akbar Salehi listens to a question during a joint news conference with European Union Climate Action and Energy Commissioner Miguel Arias Canete at the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Monday, Nov. 26, 2018. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)



Iran announced that it is producing large amounts of yellowcake, a precursor to enriched uranium, and has shipped two batches of the material to a uranium conversion facility.
Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said the Islamic Republic was ready to increase its production of yellowcake to 300 tons per year over the next five to six years, and had shipped 30 tons on yellowcake from the Shahid Rezaeinzhad Industrial Complex in the central province of Yazd to a conversion facility in Isfahan province, according to Iranian media reports on Wednesday.



http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-04/09/c_137098433.htm


logo.jpg

Sunday, May 12, 2019



Iran mines yellowcake to use in nuclear industry
Source: Xinhua| 2018-04-09 21:14:54|Editor: Yurou




TEHRAN, April 9 (Xinhua) -- Iranian nuclear chief said here Monday that Iran has extracted yellowcake domestically for industrial use in nuclear technology.
"Iran has transferred the first yellowcake consignment from Saghand uranium mine in the central Yazd Province to the uranium conversion facility (UFC) in Isfahan," Press TV quoted Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, as saying.
Also, since the implementation of nuclear deal in January 2016, Iran has imported around 400 tonnes of yellowcake.
Iran has sold its enriched uranium to a number of countries, including the United States, Salehi said at a ceremony to celebrate National Nuclear Technology Day.
Yellowcake is a type of uranium concentrate powder obtained from leach solutions, in an intermediate step in the processing of uranium ores. It is a step in the processing of uranium after it has been mined but before fuel fabrication or uranium enrichment.
In February 2017, Saleh announced a Tehran-Astana deal to buy 950 tons of yellowcake from Kazakhstan, which is part of Iran's international nuclear deal known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
"The deal (on yellowcake) is expected to be implemented in three years," he said, as 650 tons of the yellowcake shipment will arrive in Tehran in two batches in two years and the remaining 300 tons will arrive in the third year.
The JCPOA is an international agreement reached in Vienna on July 14, 2015 between Iran, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States plus Germany) and the European Union.
Based on the agreement, Iran agreed to scale back its nuclear activities to a considerable degree in return for the lift of international sanctions.
KEY WORDS:Iran
 

syed putra

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Now why would trump want to mess aound with iran after they volunteered to stop uranium enrichment.
If not for iran, IS would still dominate in iraq and syria.
 

tun_dr_m

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Now why would trump want to mess aound with iran after they volunteered to stop uranium enrichment.
If not for iran, IS would still dominate in iraq and syria.


Iran should just make nuke like Kim Jong Nuke and fire on Israel. Dotard will be feeling shoik!
 

Ang4MohTrump

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Chinese are laughing at Dotard now! But stupid Chinese should learn from Iranian! No talk! No negotiation! No handshake! Just hard brutal fight! Maximize the harm and damages all the way until USA can no longer take it! That was the way Mao Ze Dong did it in Korean War & Vietnam War. Fuck the stupid idea of peace - PISS ON IT! Advantage of Technology Strength Wealth etc are ALL on Chinese side, world abandoning USA and siding China, yet Stupid Xi wants peace for FUCK?


http://www.sohu.com/a/313407084_494439




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原创 剧情大反转,特朗普给出电话号码,跪求伊朗领导人给他打电话!

2019-05-12 07:03 美国 /军舰 /伊朗

7ac363e852cb4d1a98734a8705f1a0d7.jpeg


特朗普三驾马车

据报道,在紧张局势不断升级之际,美国给出了伊朗可以联系特朗普的电话号码,特朗普敦促(跪求)伊朗领导人给他打电话!

本周,伊朗和美国之间的紧张关系升级至近年来的最高水平,美国在伊朗边境附近部署了一支航母战斗群和4架具备核打击能力的B-52轰炸机,并警告称,美国海军可能将这些军舰驶入霍尔木兹海峡。

一位不愿透露姓名的外交人士告诉美国媒体,白宫向瑞士当局提供了一个电话号码,伊朗领导人可以用这个号码直接联系到唐纳德·特朗普总统。

据消息人士称,瑞士当局只有在伊朗政府要求的情况下才会将电话号码交给德黑兰,而这被认为是不太可能的。

美国在1980年因反对伊朗革命后断绝了关系,然后瑞士驻德黑兰大使馆的任务是代表美国在这个神秘国度的中间人。

美国高级指挥官扬言可能派遣航空母舰进入霍尔木兹海峡。

0e4ea666487446999bf81ce8312773ce.jpeg


特朗普正在苦等伊朗给他打电话

周四,特朗普敦促伊朗领导人给他打电话,讨论两国之间的紧张局势,称他“希望看到他们给他打电话”,美国“愿意与他们对话”

早些时候,伊朗革命卫队副司令亚多拉•贾瓦尼表示,伊朗没有与美国对话的计划,并将华盛顿视为一个“不可靠”的谈判伙伴。他补充称,如果美国认为自己可以通过军事威胁和制裁相结合的方式胁迫伊朗进行谈判,那它就错了。

b6ea669cc45a4d0f9cdec8f3b9544e58.jpeg


航母

本周两国之间的紧张关系急剧升级,伊朗星期五警告说,伊朗可以发送数十枚导弹葬送美国的“数十亿美元的航母舰队”,据称伊朗早有对付航母的打击计划。此前,美国国家安全顾问约翰•博尔顿和国务卿迈克•蓬佩奥接连警告称,美国将“毫不留情地”对伊朗对美国或其盟友的任何攻击进行报复。

c6f8c52c4fc643ea9ca8fb363e371d3d.jpeg


美军中央司令部

周五,五角大楼宣布,已向其中东司令部派遣阿灵顿号两栖攻击舰和一组爱国者防空导弹,与本周早些时候部署在该地区的亚伯拉罕·林肯号航空母舰战斗群和多架B-52轰炸机组成打击编队。

伊朗让我们想起伊拉克战争前的谎言,暗示美国官员在散布恐慌!

自1979年伊朗革命以来,伊朗和美国之间的关系一直不稳定,但在美国退出具有里程碑意义的2015年核协议,并于去年恢复对伊朗的严重经济制裁后,两国关系出现恶化。

d573fed8bcd54c4f83f20927b69141a6.jpeg


特朗普

华盛顿称德黑兰对部署在中东的美军构成威胁,德黑兰对此一笑置之,称特朗普政府使用的是“假情报”。

伊朗驻联合国大使马吉德•塔克特•拉万奇上周六在接受采访时表示:“这些指控都是同一群人提出的,他们在美国入侵伊拉克之前也做过同样的事情。”

他的话是在明显挖苦特朗普的国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿,当时他曾在美国国务院称萨达姆·侯赛因制造和使用大规模杀伤性武器,然后组织四十万大军入侵伊拉克,结果大规模杀伤性武器的证据根本没有,完全是个借口,这桩公案最后不了了之。

伊朗驻联合国大使因此说:“所以我们不接受这样的指控。所有这些指控都是假情报。“

7e552cdb14394e5f9560205cd849d8b3.jpeg


B-52

上周晚些时候,美国在伊朗附近部署了一艘航空母舰和一支轰炸机特遣部队,几天后,五角大楼下令在中东部署更多的导弹防御系统。

据报道,此举是基于新的情报显示,伊朗及其代理人可能计划在陆地和海上发动袭击。

美国会再上演一场新世纪的海湾战争,拿下伊朗吗?返回搜狐,查看更多

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Original The plot reversed, Trump gave the phone number and begged the Iranian leader to call him!
2019-05-12 07:03 United States / warship / Iran

Trump troika

According to reports, as tensions escalated, the United States gave Iran a telephone number that could contact Trump, and Trump urged (begging) Iranian leaders to call him!

This week, tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated to the highest level in recent years. The United States deployed an aircraft carrier battle group and four B-52 bombers with nuclear strike capabilities near the Iranian border and warned that the US Navy may These warships were driven into the Strait of Hormuz.

A diplomat who asked not to be named told the US media that the White House provided the Swiss authorities with a phone number that Iranian leaders could use to directly contact President Donald Trump.

According to sources, the Swiss authorities will only hand over the phone number to Tehran if requested by the Iranian government, which is considered unlikely.

The United States severed relations in 1980 after opposing the Iranian revolution, and then the mission of the Swiss Embassy in Tehran was to represent the United States as a middleman in this mysterious country.

Senior US commanders threatened to send aircraft carriers into the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump is waiting for Iran to call him.

On Thursday, Trump urged Iranian leaders to call him to discuss tensions between the two countries, saying that he "hopes to see them call him." The United States "willing to talk to them."

Earlier, the Deputy Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Adola Jawani, said that Iran had no plans to talk to the United States and regarded Washington as an "unreliable" negotiating partner. He added that if the United States believes that it can force Iran to negotiate through a combination of military threats and sanctions, it is wrong.

Aircraft carrier

Tensions between the two countries have escalated sharply this week, and Iran warned on Friday that Iran could send dozens of missiles to bury the US’s “billion-dollar carrier fleet”, which is said to have dealt with the carrier’s strike plan. Earlier, US National Security Adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned that the United States would "relentlessly" retaliate against any Iranian attack on the United States or its allies.

US Central Command

On Friday, the Pentagon announced that it had dispatched the Arlington amphibious assault ship and a group of Patriot air defense missiles to its Eastern Command, and the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier battle group and multiple B deployed earlier this week in the area. The -52 bomber formed a combat formation.

Iran reminds us of lies before the Iraq war, suggesting that US officials are spreading panic!

Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, relations between Iran and the United States have been unstable, but relations between the two countries have deteriorated after the United States withdrew from the landmark 2015 nuclear deal and resumed serious economic sanctions against Iran last year.

Trump

Washington said Tehran poses a threat to the US forces deployed in the Middle East. Tehran laughed at it and said that the Trump administration used "false information."

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Majid Thakte Lavanci, said in an interview on Saturday: "These allegations were made by the same group of people who did the same before the US invasion of Iraq."

His words were in the apparently ridiculous Trump's national security adviser John Bolton, who at the time the US State Department called Saddam Hussein to manufacture and use weapons of mass destruction, and then organized 400,000 troops to invade Iraq, resulting in large-scale The evidence of the weapon of destruction is not at all. It is an excuse. This case is finally lost.

The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations therefore said: "So we do not accept such allegations. All these allegations are false information."

B-52

Later in the week, the United States deployed an aircraft carrier and a bomber task force near Iran. A few days later, the Pentagon ordered the deployment of more missile defense systems in the Middle East.

According to reports, the move is based on new intelligence showing that Iran and its agents may plan to launch attacks on land and at sea.

Will the United States stage another Gulf War in the new century and win Iran? Return to Sohu to see more
 

Tony Tan

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出师未捷身先死!

http://www.sohu.com/a/313410275_414734




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原创 美军出师不利,还没来得及动手打伊朗,自己连出两事多人死伤

2019-05-12 07:55 军售 /美国 /伊朗

cfc5fc0a07ee497b970866c6c13c92fe.jpeg


作者:阙兴明;图片来自网络

美国对伊朗的施压已经到了最为要紧的时刻,上升到了以军事手段严加相逼的地步,由此也让美伊之间的火药味也正在越来越浓烈。当前,美国航母战斗群与战略轰炸机群都已经部署到了伊朗周边,在这严峻的形势之下,似已到了战争就要一触即发的境地了,美国的霸权彰显得淋漓尽致。可令美国万万没想到的是,此次出军似乎很是不利,还没有来得及向伊朗动手,自己却接连发生两次事故,伤亡情况严重。

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The original US military is unfavorable, and has not had time to fight Iran, and they have two deaths and injuries.
2019-05-12 07:55 arms sales /United States /Iran

Author: Quexing Ming; images from the network

The pressure on the United States from Iran has reached its most important moment, rising to the point where military means are strictly imposed, and the smell of gunpowder between the United States and Iraq is also becoming more and more intense. At present, the US aircraft carrier battle group and strategic bomber group have been deployed to the periphery of Iran. Under this grim situation, it seems that the war is about to start, and the US hegemony is vivid. What the United States has never imagined is that this march seems to be very unfavorable. It has not yet had time to start with Iran, but there have been two accidents in succession, and the casualties are serious.

On May 12, the Associated Press reported that the US "Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group has crossed the Strait of Hormuz, close to the destination; in addition, before this, the United States Kearsarge amphibious assault ship The leading Marine Corps expeditionary force entered the Persian Gulf a few days ago. At the same time, the US Air Force B-52 strategic bomber group arrived at the Udayd Air Force Base in Qatar on May 9 and deployed it. .

All kinds of facts prove that the US air and sea military forces are gathering around Iran, and the factors of war have become more and more sufficient. These situations are highly similar to those of the United States when it launched foreign wars repeatedly. It is also reported that the United States is still committed to stepping up its military deployment to the Middle East. On May 11, according to information released by the US Defense Department, the Arlington will be deployed in the US military base in the Middle East in the near future. Ship, and deploy the "Patriot" missile defense system. It seems that the US military pressure on Iran is still increasing, and it seems that the United States and Iran must advance the flames of war.

These military actions of the Trump administration all reflect the hegemonic power of the United States with the support of force and the promotion of power politics in the world. However, the hegemonic nature embodied in these actions in the United States seems to have passed the "sacred sacred" and has suffered two serious accidents in the recent military deployment. On May 10, US military sources disclosed that just a few days ago, a F/A-18 "Humblebee" belonging to the US Marine Corps was forced to land economically due to a major accident, and the engine compartment actually caught fire. The accident caused the loss of the "Hornet" fighter to be as high as 2 million US dollars, and was defined by the US military as a Class A accident.

Another accident occurred on May 9th, when the US Marine Corps unexpectedly crashed. According to Marine Corps officials, the scene was at Camp Pendleton, California, USA. A light armored reconnaissance vehicle was overturned during operation due to improper operation. The reconnaissance vehicle was repeatedly rolled over the ground. Afterwards, it was found that a US Marine Corps sergeant Hugh C. McDowell was killed in the car and six other Marines were injured and were being rescued.

It is important to note that the United States has put pressure on Iran to a crucial emergency. The US "Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group and the US Marine Corps expeditionary force entered the Persian Gulf, and the Persian Gulf is the offshore waters of Iran. The military threat has approached Iran’s “side of the couch”; the B-52 bomber group has been deployed to the US military base in Qatar, and it is eyeing Iran and can always come to Iran. In fact, there was news on May 5 that the United States has decided to complete the arms sales to the two Iranian neighbors of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in a short period of time. A large number of "Patriot" missile systems, F-16 fighter aircraft, and aviation. Weapons and other weapons and equipment will be submitted to the above two countries. Obviously Iran has reached the threshold of life and death.

At this critical juncture, the US military is quite "not arguing" for two major accidents. This is undoubtedly a splash of cold water for the Trump government, which is being stunned by militant sentiment, and it will certainly be serious. Damage the morale of the US military. It can be seen that the US military is really unfavorable this time. Before it started, there was an ominous sign. Go back to Sohu and see more


5月12日,美联社报道称,美国“林肯”号航母打击群已经穿过了霍尔木兹海峡,距离目的地已近在咫尺;此外,在这之前,美国Kearsarge号两栖攻击舰所领衔的海军陆战队远征部队早于几天前就进入了波斯湾;同时,美国空军B-52战略轰炸机群也已经于5月9日便抵达卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地,并做好了部署。

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种种事实证明,美国的海空军事力量都正在向伊朗周边聚集,战争的因素也已越来越充分,这些境况都与美国屡次发动对外战争时高度相似。另外还据悉美国仍然还在致力于向中东地区加紧作后续的军事部署,5月11日,据美国国防部发布的消息显示,近期内还将在中东的美军基地部署“阿林顿”号登陆舰,以及部署“爱国者”导弹防御系统。看样子,美国对伊朗的军事施压还在不断的加码,似乎一定要把美伊两国推进战争的火海。

特朗普政府的这些军事动作无一不体现出美国以武力为支撑,在全球推行强权政治的霸权嘴脸。然而美国的这些行动中所体现出来的霸权性质似乎过了头而遭到了“天谴”,在近期的军事部署过程中连遭两场严重意外事故。5月10日,美国军方消息人士披露,就在几天前,美国海军陆战队所属的一架F / A-18“大黄蜂因发生重大事故而被迫经济降落,发动机舱竟然起火。据悉,此次事故让涉事“大黄蜂”战机损失高达200万美元,被美国军方定义为A级事故。

另一场事故出现在5月9日,美国海军陆战队居然离奇发生了战车翻车事故。据海军陆战队官员透露,出事地点是在美国加利福尼亚的彭德尔顿营地,一架轻型装甲侦察车在行驶过程中因操作不当而翻车,该侦察车当时在地面发生了多次翻滚。事后查明,车内乘坐的美国海军陆战队一名中士Hugh C. McDowell因伤不治而身亡,另有6名海军陆战队士兵因故受伤,正在接受抢救。

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须知目前正是美国向伊朗施压到了至关重要的紧急关头,美国“林肯”号航母打击群以及美国海军陆战队远征部队进入波斯湾,而波斯湾正是伊朗的近海海域,这说明美国的军事威胁已经逼近到了伊朗的“卧榻之侧”;而B-52轰炸机群则已部署到了卡塔尔的美军基地,对伊朗虎视眈眈,能随时向伊朗扑来。其实5月5日还有消息传出,美国已决定要在短期内完成对巴林、阿联酋这两个伊朗的邻国的军售交易,一大批“爱国者”导弹系统、F-16战机、航空炸弹等武器装备就要向以上两国提交。显然伊朗已经到了生死攸关之际。

而在这紧急关头,美军却相当“不争气”的连出两大意外事故,这无疑是对正在被好战情绪冲昏头脑的特朗普政府当头泼了一盆冷水,同时也必然会严重损伤美军的士气。可见,美军此次还真是出师不利,还没动手就先出现了不祥预兆。返回搜狐,查看更多
 

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美军为何不对伊朗动武:一旦开战,百万大军三天灭亡以色列?

2019-05-02 09:07 导弹 /沙特 /伊朗

有分析称美国有可能要对伊朗动武。但是,爆发局部战争的可能性,还是比较小的。相比2003年的萨达姆,伊朗现在拥有几个比较突出的优势。首先,伊朗盟友众多,从巴勒斯坦哈马斯,黎巴嫩真主党,叙利亚一直到伊拉克什叶派。

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伊朗的盟友就有百万级别的正规军和民兵力量,战场从黎巴嫩,巴勒斯坦一直蔓延到伊朗高原。如此广大,而且错综复杂的战场,美军怎么可能搞得定?

最重要的是伊朗弹道导弹实力,远不是伊拉克可以比拟的。在海湾战争时期,伊拉克弹道导弹部队,只能单发发射导弹。很容易就被美军的爱国者导弹拦截。而伊朗部署在也门,叙利亚等地区的弹道导弹部队。

则拥有上万枚导弹,可以打出连排齐射,让美军导弹防御系统,防不胜防。更何况,伊朗还部署有大批重型远程火箭炮,足以覆盖以色列大部分地区。

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伊朗在本土和叙利亚,正在实现所有导弹阵地地下化的措施,以避免美军和以军的空中打击。所有导弹和发射车都隐藏在地下。只有发射的时候,才短暂出现在地面。随后就再次进入坑道。

伊朗的一个小兄弟,哈马斯都可以向以色列发射12万枚火箭弹。如果是伊朗自己全力出击,足以在短时间内,让导弹和火箭弹,遮蔽以色列的天空。无论美军还是以色列导弹防御系统,都将在如此密集的饱和攻击下,出现崩溃现象。伊朗革命卫队司令萨拉米说过,一旦开战,72小时就要灭亡以色列。

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与此同时,如果,伊朗掌控的从巴勒斯坦一直到伊拉克,伊朗的武装民兵力量全体主动参战。在整个地区所有美国盟友哪里进行广泛游击战。美国在中东的所有盟友恐怕都无法应对如果广泛的游击战。

美国在中东的二号盟友沙特就连伊朗一个小兄弟胡塞武装,都倾尽国力,迟迟无法得手。就更不用说伊朗属下所有民兵组织,全力出击了。

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如果美军还如同在伊拉克战争一样打治安战,恐怕,美国陆军全体出动,也无法覆盖如此广大的地区。返回搜狐,查看更多


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Why did the US military not use force against Iran: Once the war began, the million-strong army died in Israel for three days?

2019-05-02 09:07 missile / Saudi / Iran


Some analysts said that the United States may have to use force against Iran. However, the possibility of a local war is still relatively small. Compared to Saddam in 2003, Iran now has several prominent advantages. First, there are many Iranian allies, from Palestinian Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria to Iraqi Shiites.




Iran’s allies have a million-level regular army and militia forces, and the battlefield has spread from Lebanon to Palestine to the Iranian plateau. Such a vast and intricate battlefield, how can the US military make it possible?


The most important thing is that the strength of Iranian ballistic missiles is far from what Iraq can match. During the Gulf War, Iraq’s ballistic missile units could only fire missiles on their own. It is easy to be intercepted by the US Patriot missile. Iran is deployed in ballistic missile units in Yemen, Syria and other regions.


With tens of thousands of missiles, it is possible to play a series of volleys to make the US missile defense system invincible. What's more, Iran has also deployed a large number of heavy-duty long-range rockets, covering most of Israel.




In the homeland and in Syria, Iran is implementing measures to undergroundize all missile positions to avoid air strikes by the US and Israeli forces. All missiles and launch vehicles are hidden underground. It only appears on the ground briefly when it is launched. Then I entered the tunnel again.


A small Iranian brother, Hamas, can fire 120,000 rockets into Israel. If it is Iran’s own full attack, it will be enough to let missiles and rockets cover the sky of Israel in a short time. Both the US military and the Israeli missile defense system will collapse under such a dense saturation attack. The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Salami, said that once the war began, Israel would be destroyed in 72 hours.




At the same time, if Iran is in control from Palestine to Iraq, all Iranian armed militia forces will take part in the war. A wide range of guerrilla warfare is carried out by all US allies throughout the region. All American allies in the Middle East may not be able to cope with widespread guerrilla warfare.


Saudi Arabia, the second ally of the United States in the Middle East, even armed with a small Iranian brother, Hussein, has done his best and is unable to succeed. Not to mention all the militia organizations under Iran’s subordinates.




If the US military is still fighting the security war like the Iraq war, I am afraid that the entire US Army will not be able to cover such a vast area. Go back to Sohu and see more
 
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