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China stands to become the big loser in Trump’s attack on Iran
Analysis by John Liu
Pedestrians walk next to a screen showing the commodity futures for crude oil in the Jing'an district of Shanghai on Monday.
Jade Gao/AFP/Getty Images
In less than two months, United States President Donald Trump has taken out two of Beijing’s closest allies — threatening China’s oil supply in the process.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was seized by the US in January. Now Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead. Beyond robbing China of its strategic partners in South America and the Middle East, the two military actions have struck at something far more vital to Beijing: Oil.
Both nations supply most of their crude to China — more than half of Venezuela’s crude exports and nearly all of Iran’s shipped crude likely ended up in China last year, according to data analytics firm Kpler.
Together, their supplies accounted for about 15% of China’s oil imports, CNN’s calculations based on data from Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy showed.
Rob Thummel, Portfolio Manager at Tortoise Capital counts China as a potential major loser in the Iran conflict because it produces far less oil than it consumes.
“The higher price might impact economic growth, but the physical supply is even more important since China relies on crude oil imports to keep its economy going,” he said.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has called the US-Israeli attack on Iran “unacceptable,” and condemned the “blatant killing of a sovereign leader and the incitement of regime change.” But Beijing has so far not commented on the potential economic impact.
Beyond oil supply disruptions, China and other Asian economies also face potential logistical challenges if the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping route for crude from countries including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait — is closed or disrupted.
Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency reported that a tanker, which was struck Sunday after attempting an “unauthorized passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” was sinking after sustaining damage.
Iran controls the Strait’s northern side and has previously threatened to choke off access to the waterway during conflicts with the US. Analysts warn that closing the Strait of Hormuz, or major disruptions there, would trigger a significant global energy crisis.
CNN’s David Goldman and Simone McCarthy contributed to this post.
