-
IP addresses are NOT logged in this forum so there's no point asking. Please note that this forum is full of homophobes, racists, lunatics, schizophrenics & absolute nut jobs with a smattering of geniuses, Chinese chauvinists, Moderate Muslims and last but not least a couple of "know-it-alls" constantly sprouting their dubious wisdom. If you believe that content generated by unsavory characters might cause you offense PLEASE LEAVE NOW! Sammyboy Admin and Staff are not responsible for your hurt feelings should you choose to read any of the content here. The OTHER forum is HERE so please stop asking.
Tory or Labour?
- Thread starter yinyang
- Start date
Exit poll forecast: Conservative majority
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2019-50755004
Election results 2019: Tories on course to win majority - exit poll
The Conservatives are set to win an overall majority of 86 in the general election, according to an exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky News.
The survey taken at UK polling stations suggests the Tories will get 368 MPs - 50 more than at the 2017 election - when all the results have been counted.
Labour would get 191, the Lib Dems 13, the Brexit Party none and the SNP 55.
In one of the first seats to declare, the Conservatives took Blyth Valley in north-east England from Labour.
This is the first time the former mining area will have a Conservative MP - NHS worker Ian Levy.
Labour also held Houghton and Sunderland South, again with a smaller majority.
The rest of the results are due to come in the early hours, although the final total will not be known until Friday lunchtime.
The results so far were broadly in line with the exit poll, polling expert Sir John Curtice told BBC News.
Conservative win announced in Blyth Valley, breaking Labour's 50-year hold in the forming mining constituency
The exit poll was conducted by Ipsos Mori at 144 polling stations, with 22,790 interviews.
Exit polls have proved to be very accurate in recent years. In 2017 it correctly predicted a hung Parliament, with no overall winner, and in 2015 it predicted the Conservatives would be the largest party.
The pound surged against the dollar after the exit poll figures were announced, with sterling gaining 3% to $1.35 - its highest level since May last year. The pound also jumped to a three-and-a-half-year high against the euro.
If the exit poll is correct, and Boris Johnson has secured a majority, then he will have the backing of MPs on the green benches behind him to take us out of the European Union next month.
A huge junction in our history - a moment that will redraw our place in the world.
But not just that - if correct, these numbers could mean five more years of a Conservative government - tipping across a decade.
After the fourth defeat for Labour in a row - after several years when they have moved further to the left - this is a serious and historic loss.
The SNP have increased their dominance in Scotland, clearing out Conservatives there in a way that leaves most of the country yellow, rather than blue.
And it is a failure for the Lib Dems to break through after a campaign that started with high hopes.
Read Laura's blog
It would be the biggest Conservative victory since 1987 and Labour's worst result since 1935, the poll suggests, with the party forecast to lose 71 seats.
The exit poll suggests the parties' shares of the vote reflected differences in how constituencies voted in the 2016 EU referendum.
It suggests the Tory strategy of targeting Leave-voting Labour seats in the Midlands and North of England might have paid off, with Boris Johnson's party expected to have made gains at the expense of Labour.
Image copyrightAFP
Home Secretary Priti Patel said the government will move quickly to "get Brexit done" before Christmas by introducing legislation in Parliament, if it is returned to power.
Downing Street said in a statement that if the exit poll numbers are correct, there will be a minor cabinet reshuffle on Monday.
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill, paving the way for Brexit on 31 January, would have its second Commons reading on Friday, 20 December.
A major reshuffle would take place in February, after the UK has left the EU, No 10 added, with a Budget statement in March.
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell told the BBC the exit poll was "extremely disappointing" for Labour if it was correct.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2019-50755004
Election results 2019: Tories on course to win majority - exit poll
The Conservatives are set to win an overall majority of 86 in the general election, according to an exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky News.
The survey taken at UK polling stations suggests the Tories will get 368 MPs - 50 more than at the 2017 election - when all the results have been counted.
Labour would get 191, the Lib Dems 13, the Brexit Party none and the SNP 55.
In one of the first seats to declare, the Conservatives took Blyth Valley in north-east England from Labour.
This is the first time the former mining area will have a Conservative MP - NHS worker Ian Levy.
- LIVE: Updates and reaction as results come in
- Election 2019: The key points you need to know
- Exit poll forecasts SNP to win 55 seats
Labour also held Houghton and Sunderland South, again with a smaller majority.
The rest of the results are due to come in the early hours, although the final total will not be known until Friday lunchtime.
The results so far were broadly in line with the exit poll, polling expert Sir John Curtice told BBC News.
Conservative win announced in Blyth Valley, breaking Labour's 50-year hold in the forming mining constituency
The exit poll was conducted by Ipsos Mori at 144 polling stations, with 22,790 interviews.
Exit polls have proved to be very accurate in recent years. In 2017 it correctly predicted a hung Parliament, with no overall winner, and in 2015 it predicted the Conservatives would be the largest party.
The pound surged against the dollar after the exit poll figures were announced, with sterling gaining 3% to $1.35 - its highest level since May last year. The pound also jumped to a three-and-a-half-year high against the euro.
If the exit poll is correct, and Boris Johnson has secured a majority, then he will have the backing of MPs on the green benches behind him to take us out of the European Union next month.
A huge junction in our history - a moment that will redraw our place in the world.
But not just that - if correct, these numbers could mean five more years of a Conservative government - tipping across a decade.
After the fourth defeat for Labour in a row - after several years when they have moved further to the left - this is a serious and historic loss.
The SNP have increased their dominance in Scotland, clearing out Conservatives there in a way that leaves most of the country yellow, rather than blue.
And it is a failure for the Lib Dems to break through after a campaign that started with high hopes.
Read Laura's blog
It would be the biggest Conservative victory since 1987 and Labour's worst result since 1935, the poll suggests, with the party forecast to lose 71 seats.
The exit poll suggests the parties' shares of the vote reflected differences in how constituencies voted in the 2016 EU referendum.
It suggests the Tory strategy of targeting Leave-voting Labour seats in the Midlands and North of England might have paid off, with Boris Johnson's party expected to have made gains at the expense of Labour.
Home Secretary Priti Patel said the government will move quickly to "get Brexit done" before Christmas by introducing legislation in Parliament, if it is returned to power.
Downing Street said in a statement that if the exit poll numbers are correct, there will be a minor cabinet reshuffle on Monday.
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill, paving the way for Brexit on 31 January, would have its second Commons reading on Friday, 20 December.
A major reshuffle would take place in February, after the UK has left the EU, No 10 added, with a Budget statement in March.
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell told the BBC the exit poll was "extremely disappointing" for Labour if it was correct.
UK election 2019 exit poll results shows Boris Johnson's Conservatives on track to beat Jeremy Corbyn's Labour
Updated 34 minutes ago
VIDEO 0:45 UK election exit polls projected on Old Broadcasting House in central London ABC NEWS
Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is forecast to win the UK election with its largest majority in decades, according to a BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll released after the close of voting.
The exit poll said the Tories were on track to win 368 seats, which would give them a clear majority in the House of Commons as Mr Johnson attempts to ram his Brexit agenda through.
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party was forecast to pick up 191 seats — down 71.
The Scottish National Party was predicted to win by a landslide in Scotland, taking 55 seats out of 59, while the Liberal Democrats were on track to predicted to return 13 MPs to Westminster.
"Thank you to everyone across our great country who voted, who volunteered, who stood as candidate," Mr Johnson tweeted after the results were announced.
Conservative Party chairman James Cleverly said the results would give the party "a big majority" that could be used to "get Brexit done", while controversial former House of Commons speaker John Bercow said it pointed to a "phenomenal victory".
"Boris Johnson will feel completely vindicated with the gamble that he took," he said.
"That would be an absolutely dramatic victory."
The British pound surged against other currencies after the exit poll was released, jumping from $US1.316 to $US1.350 as investors seized on hopes of an end to the uncertainty around Britain's exit from the European Union.
The Australian dollar fell more than 2 per cent against the rising pound, while the euro also lost ground.
PHOTO Boris Johnson's projected big win will raise questions over Jeremy Corbyn's future. AP VIA ITV'It's a deeply depressing result'
If the exit poll results ring true, it will be the biggest Conservative national election win since Margaret Thatcher's 1987 triumph.
A Labour drubbing is expected to raise questions over the future of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who had promised another referendum on Brexit, and who will have led the left-of-centre party to two electoral defeats since 2017.
"What's clearly come through I think in these results is that this was the Brexit election," he said.
"We were hoping a wider range of issues would cut though and have a debate, I don't think that has been the case."
The exit poll results are based on 22,790 interviews across 144 polling stations.
Second Scottish independence referendum not 'inevitable', Minister says
With Scotland forecast to have voted overwhelmingly for the Scottish National Party, one top Conservative moved to hose down talk of another independence referendum.
Tory Minister Michael Gove said such a move would damage Scotland and the UK, even if Scots had overwhelmingly voted for the nationalists who favour such a poll.
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon cautioned supporters not to take the exit poll at face value, saying there were too many marginal seats in play north of the border.
Live UK election results
ABC/wires
Updated 34 minutes ago
Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is forecast to win the UK election with its largest majority in decades, according to a BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll released after the close of voting.
The exit poll said the Tories were on track to win 368 seats, which would give them a clear majority in the House of Commons as Mr Johnson attempts to ram his Brexit agenda through.
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party was forecast to pick up 191 seats — down 71.
The Scottish National Party was predicted to win by a landslide in Scotland, taking 55 seats out of 59, while the Liberal Democrats were on track to predicted to return 13 MPs to Westminster.
"Thank you to everyone across our great country who voted, who volunteered, who stood as candidate," Mr Johnson tweeted after the results were announced.
Mr Johnson called the first December election since 1923 to break what he said was the paralysis of Britain's political system after more than three years of crisis over how, when or even if to leave the European Union.
Conservative Party chairman James Cleverly said the results would give the party "a big majority" that could be used to "get Brexit done", while controversial former House of Commons speaker John Bercow said it pointed to a "phenomenal victory".
"Boris Johnson will feel completely vindicated with the gamble that he took," he said.
"That would be an absolutely dramatic victory."
The British pound surged against other currencies after the exit poll was released, jumping from $US1.316 to $US1.350 as investors seized on hopes of an end to the uncertainty around Britain's exit from the European Union.
The Australian dollar fell more than 2 per cent against the rising pound, while the euro also lost ground.
If the exit poll results ring true, it will be the biggest Conservative national election win since Margaret Thatcher's 1987 triumph.
A Labour drubbing is expected to raise questions over the future of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who had promised another referendum on Brexit, and who will have led the left-of-centre party to two electoral defeats since 2017.
John McDonnell, the second most powerful man in the Labour Party, said the election had been dominated by Brexit, which has divided the country since 2016.
"What's clearly come through I think in these results is that this was the Brexit election," he said.
"We were hoping a wider range of issues would cut though and have a debate, I don't think that has been the case."
The exit poll results are based on 22,790 interviews across 144 polling stations.
Second Scottish independence referendum not 'inevitable', Minister says
With Scotland forecast to have voted overwhelmingly for the Scottish National Party, one top Conservative moved to hose down talk of another independence referendum.
Tory Minister Michael Gove said such a move would damage Scotland and the UK, even if Scots had overwhelmingly voted for the nationalists who favour such a poll.
"I don't believe that a second independence referendum would be right for Scotland or right for the United Kingdom."
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon cautioned supporters not to take the exit poll at face value, saying there were too many marginal seats in play north of the border.
Live UK election results
ABC/wires
Hopefully Mr Corbyn will become the new PM of UK this evening & I am rooting the Labour Party to win this GE 2019 
My Aberdeen crony believes Corbyn's a commie and great taxman
He's the Brit version of Bernie Sanders. Supported by dumb kids who believe in free shit.
Tory! Tory to kill off @Ang4MohTrump to Hamas loser!
at least 69-seat majority for conservatives. hurrah!
General election 2019: latest results, headline news - and what it all means
Chris Graham
,
The Telegraph•December 13, 2019
GE
The Tories snatched seat after seat in Labour heartlands as the PM's 'get Brexit done' election message hit home with working class Leave voters.
A BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll put the Tories on 368 seats and was borne out by early results as support for Labour slumped in its Brexit-voting heartlands.
The exit poll predicted Labour would win just 191 seats, the Scottish National Party 55, Liberal Democrats 13, the Brexit Party none, Plaid Cymru three and Greens one.
This would give Mr Johnson a majority of 86.
The pound soared against the dollar and the euro as the exit poll emerged.
One of the first actual results to come through supported the exit poll prediction as the Conservatives won Blyth Valley with a 10% swing from Labour - a seat they had held since 1950.
The first big Labour scalp claimed by the Tories was shadow environment secretary Sue Hayman, who lost Workington on another 10% swing.
The typically working class 'Workington Man' voter was identified as a key target by a right wing think tank at the start of the election campaign.
The Tories also took Darlington from Labour.
Headline news
Labour in shock at "extremely disappointing" night
Labour was seeking to blame Brexit for the catastrophic electoral defeat predicted by the exit poll that has estimated a huge majority for the Conservatives.
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell was visibly shocked by the predicted figures suggesting Labour was on course for its second General Election defeat under Jeremy Corbyn.
Mr McDonnell sought to blame a public discourse in which "Brexit has dominated", defended the left-wing policies adopted by him and Mr Corbyn, and said "appropriate decisions" will be made about the future of the leadership.
If the actual result resembles the prediction, Labour will lose 52 seats, putting it on course for its worst result in terms of seats since 1935.
Mr Corbyn will now be under overwhelming pressure to resign. Ahead of the election, Labour sources had been predicting he would only go if Boris Johnson won a majority.
But they indicated Mr Corbyn would not resign immediately if he had no chance of becoming PM and would likely stay on into the new year while a leadership election is battled.
12.4K people are talking about this
Shortly after the poll was released, Mr McDonnell told the BBC he was shocked by the prediction, having though the polls were narrowing.
"If it is anywhere near this it will be extremely disappointing for the party overall and for our movement," he said. "I think Brexit has dominated, it has dominated everything by the looks of it.
"We thought other issues could cut through and there would be a wider debate, from this evidence there clearly wasn't."
Asked about his and Mr Corbyn's future, he said: "Let's see the results themselves, as I say, the appropriate decisions will be made and we'll always make the decisions in the best interests of our party."
SNP on course for landslide, poll suggests
The SNP could be set for a second landslide at Westminster, the exit poll predicted, bolstering Nicola Sturgeon's demand for a referendum on independence.
The joint Sky/BBC/ITV poll indicated the party could win 55 seats north of the border, meaning the SNP would continue to be the third largest party in the Commons, with 55 MPs, the poll predicted, while Jo Swinson's Liberal democrats would have 13.
In the first result of the night, the SNP's Margaret Ferrier won Rutherglen and Hamilton West, taking the seat with a majority of 5,230. Labour's Ged Killen had been defending a majority of only 265.
Ms Sturgeon said while the exit poll "suggests a good night" for the SNP, she added that "what it indicates UK wide though is grim".
4,163 people are talking about this
If the SNP was to win 55 of the 59 Scottish seats up for grabs, it would be the party's second best ever result - and only one fewer MP than they secured in 2015, when they won all but three seats north of the border.
It would also be an increase of 20 on the 35 MPs that Ms Sturgeon's party returned in 2017.
The poll suggests both Labour and the Scottish Conservatives could be in for losses north of the border, with the Tories having won 13 seats two years ago, while Mr Corbyn's Labour secured seven Scottish MPs last time round.
It comes at the end of an election campaign which had focused heavily on the key constitutional issues of Brexit and a second Scottish independence referendum.
The stark contrast with the predicted result in England would also be expected to place huge strain on the Union.
But Michael Gove, who was raised in Aberdeen, told ITV he did not believe a second independence referendum "would be right" for Scotland for the UK.
He said he did not think another separation vote was "inevitable, quite the opposite."
Latest results
175 out of 650 seats declared
Latest results
The The BBC/Sky/ITV poll.
The exit pollWhat it all means
If the exit poll is correct, the Red Wall has well and truly collapsed
Janet Daley writes:
If the Labour Party is to survive this devastating verdict, Jeremy Corbyn must resign tonight
Tom Harris writes:
A majority would be a victory for everyone slandered by the far-Left
Tim Stanley writes:
"This is a vindication for Boris Johnson. Again, he is not the man the Left says he is. He is perfectly moderate and really quite popular - as footage from the campaign trail almost consistently showed. He had a great campaign, displaying the discipline he allegedly lacked, and even when it wrong it was oddly wonderful (hiding in a fridge: love it).
"Never has the gulf between London opinion and the rest of the country been so stark. I'm not claiming BoJo is our Churchill or is universally loved. But what he's not is universally hated just because Channel 4 doesn't care for him. He has rescued his party from Theresa May and - this is the big thing - maybe saved Brexit."
Read the full article here.
What happens next?
If Mr Johnson does indeed get his big majority, the Government will move quickly to "get Brexit done", Home Secretary Priti Patel said on Thursday night.
She said: "Importantly, as we have outlined throughout this entire campaign, the focus has been on Brexit.
"You know, we've had gridlock in Parliament, we want to get Brexit done, we have heard the prime minister say this. Get it done before Christmas, introduce the legislation and get that moving in parliament."
On Friday, Mr Johnson will likely visit Buckingham Palace where the Queen will invite him to form a new government.
The PM would then make a speech outside Number 10, and could begin a cabinet reshuffle - which may last over the weekend, or be done in a day as it was when he took over from Theresa May.
On Tuesday, MPs will return to Westminster and begin the process of swearing in, where they take an oath of allegiance.
The Conservatives have pledged to re-introduce Mr Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement Bill (Wab), in December as an "early Christmas present" for voters. This could mean MPs sitting next Friday in order for the Bill to be introduced at first reading.
Chris Graham
,
The Telegraph•December 13, 2019
GE
- Manifestos at-a-glance
- When the results will be declared and what to watch for
- How accurate is the exit poll?
- Subscribe for just £1 per week - 50% off
The Tories snatched seat after seat in Labour heartlands as the PM's 'get Brexit done' election message hit home with working class Leave voters.
A BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll put the Tories on 368 seats and was borne out by early results as support for Labour slumped in its Brexit-voting heartlands.
The exit poll predicted Labour would win just 191 seats, the Scottish National Party 55, Liberal Democrats 13, the Brexit Party none, Plaid Cymru three and Greens one.
This would give Mr Johnson a majority of 86.
The pound soared against the dollar and the euro as the exit poll emerged.
One of the first actual results to come through supported the exit poll prediction as the Conservatives won Blyth Valley with a 10% swing from Labour - a seat they had held since 1950.
The first big Labour scalp claimed by the Tories was shadow environment secretary Sue Hayman, who lost Workington on another 10% swing.
The typically working class 'Workington Man' voter was identified as a key target by a right wing think tank at the start of the election campaign.
The Tories also took Darlington from Labour.
Headline news
Labour in shock at "extremely disappointing" night
Labour was seeking to blame Brexit for the catastrophic electoral defeat predicted by the exit poll that has estimated a huge majority for the Conservatives.
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell was visibly shocked by the predicted figures suggesting Labour was on course for its second General Election defeat under Jeremy Corbyn.
Mr McDonnell sought to blame a public discourse in which "Brexit has dominated", defended the left-wing policies adopted by him and Mr Corbyn, and said "appropriate decisions" will be made about the future of the leadership.
If the actual result resembles the prediction, Labour will lose 52 seats, putting it on course for its worst result in terms of seats since 1935.
Mr Corbyn will now be under overwhelming pressure to resign. Ahead of the election, Labour sources had been predicting he would only go if Boris Johnson won a majority.
But they indicated Mr Corbyn would not resign immediately if he had no chance of becoming PM and would likely stay on into the new year while a leadership election is battled.
Jeremy Corbyn | Vote today
✔@jeremycorbyn
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1205245549672386560
I promised @UKLabour would run the biggest people powered campaign our country has ever seen.
And you, our members and supporters, have done just that.
You're the heart of our party, and you have campaigned tirelessly to win so we can a build a fairer country.
I thank you all.
57.6K
10:58 AM - Dec 13, 2019
Twitter Ads info and privacy
12.4K people are talking about this
Shortly after the poll was released, Mr McDonnell told the BBC he was shocked by the prediction, having though the polls were narrowing.
"If it is anywhere near this it will be extremely disappointing for the party overall and for our movement," he said. "I think Brexit has dominated, it has dominated everything by the looks of it.
"We thought other issues could cut through and there would be a wider debate, from this evidence there clearly wasn't."
Asked about his and Mr Corbyn's future, he said: "Let's see the results themselves, as I say, the appropriate decisions will be made and we'll always make the decisions in the best interests of our party."
SNP on course for landslide, poll suggests
The SNP could be set for a second landslide at Westminster, the exit poll predicted, bolstering Nicola Sturgeon's demand for a referendum on independence.
The joint Sky/BBC/ITV poll indicated the party could win 55 seats north of the border, meaning the SNP would continue to be the third largest party in the Commons, with 55 MPs, the poll predicted, while Jo Swinson's Liberal democrats would have 13.
In the first result of the night, the SNP's Margaret Ferrier won Rutherglen and Hamilton West, taking the seat with a majority of 5,230. Labour's Ged Killen had been defending a majority of only 265.
Ms Sturgeon said while the exit poll "suggests a good night" for the SNP, she added that "what it indicates UK wide though is grim".
Nicola Sturgeon
✔@NicolaSturgeon
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1205249641350127617
Exit poll suggests good night for @theSNP - but it is just an exit poll and there are many marginals, so let’s just wait and see. What it indicates UK wide though is grim. #GE19
23K
11:14 AM - Dec 13, 2019
Twitter Ads info and privacy
4,163 people are talking about this
If the SNP was to win 55 of the 59 Scottish seats up for grabs, it would be the party's second best ever result - and only one fewer MP than they secured in 2015, when they won all but three seats north of the border.
It would also be an increase of 20 on the 35 MPs that Ms Sturgeon's party returned in 2017.
The poll suggests both Labour and the Scottish Conservatives could be in for losses north of the border, with the Tories having won 13 seats two years ago, while Mr Corbyn's Labour secured seven Scottish MPs last time round.
It comes at the end of an election campaign which had focused heavily on the key constitutional issues of Brexit and a second Scottish independence referendum.
The stark contrast with the predicted result in England would also be expected to place huge strain on the Union.
But Michael Gove, who was raised in Aberdeen, told ITV he did not believe a second independence referendum "would be right" for Scotland for the UK.
He said he did not think another separation vote was "inevitable, quite the opposite."
Latest results
175 out of 650 seats declared
Latest results
The The BBC/Sky/ITV poll.
The exit pollWhat it all means
If the exit poll is correct, the Red Wall has well and truly collapsed
Janet Daley writes:
Read the full article.
If the Labour Party is to survive this devastating verdict, Jeremy Corbyn must resign tonight
Tom Harris writes:
Read the full article.
A majority would be a victory for everyone slandered by the far-Left
Tim Stanley writes:
"This is a vindication for Boris Johnson. Again, he is not the man the Left says he is. He is perfectly moderate and really quite popular - as footage from the campaign trail almost consistently showed. He had a great campaign, displaying the discipline he allegedly lacked, and even when it wrong it was oddly wonderful (hiding in a fridge: love it).
"Never has the gulf between London opinion and the rest of the country been so stark. I'm not claiming BoJo is our Churchill or is universally loved. But what he's not is universally hated just because Channel 4 doesn't care for him. He has rescued his party from Theresa May and - this is the big thing - maybe saved Brexit."
Read the full article here.
What happens next?
If Mr Johnson does indeed get his big majority, the Government will move quickly to "get Brexit done", Home Secretary Priti Patel said on Thursday night.
She said: "Importantly, as we have outlined throughout this entire campaign, the focus has been on Brexit.
"You know, we've had gridlock in Parliament, we want to get Brexit done, we have heard the prime minister say this. Get it done before Christmas, introduce the legislation and get that moving in parliament."
On Friday, Mr Johnson will likely visit Buckingham Palace where the Queen will invite him to form a new government.
The PM would then make a speech outside Number 10, and could begin a cabinet reshuffle - which may last over the weekend, or be done in a day as it was when he took over from Theresa May.
On Tuesday, MPs will return to Westminster and begin the process of swearing in, where they take an oath of allegiance.
The Conservatives have pledged to re-introduce Mr Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement Bill (Wab), in December as an "early Christmas present" for voters. This could mean MPs sitting next Friday in order for the Bill to be introduced at first reading.
TOM NEWTON DUNN
Boris Johnson’s crushing election victory puts him in the same league of conquering party heroes as Margaret Thatcher
The Prime Minister fought a presidential campaign, with the rest of the Cabinet almost invisible for much of the time.
Boris Johnson ran a presidential campaign and has emerged victoriousCredit: Getty Images - Getty
The Prime Minister now enters the same Premier League of conquering party heroes as Margaret ThatcherCredit: Getty - Contributor
Defeat would have fallen on his shoulders alone, and victory will be borne aloft on them too now – because in the Conservative Party, nothing succeeds like success.
As a brand, he has won back his old moniker of the Heineken politician, reaching parts of the country that others cannot ever touch.
As party leader, the eccentric 55-year-old Etonian is now all-powerful. The repeated leadership challenges that have dogged the last two years are now a thing of the past for the Conservative Party, at least for some while.
Boris now enters the same Premier League of conquering party heroes as Margaret Thatcher in her 1980s heyday, easily surpassing both David Cameron and John Major’s small majorities in 1992 and 2015.
As PM, that means he can hire or fire whoever he wants from his Cabinet. Expect a substantial reshuffle in January, with the troublesome likes of Andrea Leadsom, Gavin Williamson and Julian Smith all swiftly consigned to the backbenches.
THE BORIS BREXIT
Crucially, it liberates his hand on Brexit. Boris’s Brexit bill will now sail through the Commons unamended in January, as no Tory MP will contemplate rebellion, guaranteeing the UK’s EU exit on January 31.
More importantly for 2020, he now has a total free hand to negotiate the future arrangement he wants with the EU, that might also mean taking a little longer than his promise of 11 months by the end of next year.
The PM’s close aides have lived in fear of a small majority leaving Boris again at the mercy of the Eurosceptic Tory hardliners of the ERG.
So expect a slightly softer Brexit, with deep security cooperation — even if overseen by euro judges — and more regulatory alignment than he had planned before in exchange for better access to the EU’s markets.
WORKINGTON MAN'S MAN
On domestic policy, we will soon also see the real Boris Johnson stand up.
At various stages of his career, Boris has professed to be both a small state tax cutter as well as a big spending One Nation expansionist.
Holding on to his brand new coalition of former Labour voters in the north will dictate much of what he now does in No10. There is a big electoral debt to repay.
Tax cuts for high earners will go into the deep freeze, to be replaced by state splurges, especially on infrastructure in the north – more new roads and electrified train lines.
One major problem he will has is the union. A huge SNP surge in Scotland makes a second Scottish referendum very hard to refuse, and Boris will have to win over a nation that is very sceptical about his English charm.
So how did he do it? Winning over the Leave-backing Labour North was not just about Brexit. It was also about being a human being voters up there can associate with.
MOST READ IN OPINION
COMMENT
OLIVIA UTLEY
We've been spared a Marxist PM who planned to decimate Britain in months
COMMENT
DAN WOOTTON
Beeb signed its death warrant by axing BBC3... why pay if we don't watch it?
COMMENT
THE SUN SAYS
Britain has been saved & now Boris can reunite us and steer us into a new era
COMMENT
IAN AUSTIN
Tories' crushing win after 9yrs of austerity shows Labour need complete rethink
COMMENT
THE SUN SAYS
If Boris wins, a bright future begins… if Corbyn gets in, the lights will go out
I spent much of the last week in the North East. Painter Rob Scott, 57, at Fergusons Transport, in Washington, Tyne and Wear, summed it up: “Boris seems like an ordinary bloke you could have a drink with. I don’t mind buying.”
What about his colourful sexual past?
“I wish I had his love life,” said Rob.
Boris Johnson’s crushing election victory puts him in the same league of conquering party heroes as Margaret Thatcher
- 13 Dec 2019, 2:20
- Updated: 13 Dec 2019, 2:28
The Prime Minister fought a presidential campaign, with the rest of the Cabinet almost invisible for much of the time.
Boris Johnson ran a presidential campaign and has emerged victoriousCredit: Getty Images - Getty
The Prime Minister now enters the same Premier League of conquering party heroes as Margaret ThatcherCredit: Getty - Contributor
Defeat would have fallen on his shoulders alone, and victory will be borne aloft on them too now – because in the Conservative Party, nothing succeeds like success.
As a brand, he has won back his old moniker of the Heineken politician, reaching parts of the country that others cannot ever touch.
As party leader, the eccentric 55-year-old Etonian is now all-powerful. The repeated leadership challenges that have dogged the last two years are now a thing of the past for the Conservative Party, at least for some while.
Boris now enters the same Premier League of conquering party heroes as Margaret Thatcher in her 1980s heyday, easily surpassing both David Cameron and John Major’s small majorities in 1992 and 2015.
As PM, that means he can hire or fire whoever he wants from his Cabinet. Expect a substantial reshuffle in January, with the troublesome likes of Andrea Leadsom, Gavin Williamson and Julian Smith all swiftly consigned to the backbenches.
THE BORIS BREXIT
Crucially, it liberates his hand on Brexit. Boris’s Brexit bill will now sail through the Commons unamended in January, as no Tory MP will contemplate rebellion, guaranteeing the UK’s EU exit on January 31.
More importantly for 2020, he now has a total free hand to negotiate the future arrangement he wants with the EU, that might also mean taking a little longer than his promise of 11 months by the end of next year.
The PM’s close aides have lived in fear of a small majority leaving Boris again at the mercy of the Eurosceptic Tory hardliners of the ERG.
So expect a slightly softer Brexit, with deep security cooperation — even if overseen by euro judges — and more regulatory alignment than he had planned before in exchange for better access to the EU’s markets.
WORKINGTON MAN'S MAN
On domestic policy, we will soon also see the real Boris Johnson stand up.
At various stages of his career, Boris has professed to be both a small state tax cutter as well as a big spending One Nation expansionist.
Holding on to his brand new coalition of former Labour voters in the north will dictate much of what he now does in No10. There is a big electoral debt to repay.
Tax cuts for high earners will go into the deep freeze, to be replaced by state splurges, especially on infrastructure in the north – more new roads and electrified train lines.
One major problem he will has is the union. A huge SNP surge in Scotland makes a second Scottish referendum very hard to refuse, and Boris will have to win over a nation that is very sceptical about his English charm.
So how did he do it? Winning over the Leave-backing Labour North was not just about Brexit. It was also about being a human being voters up there can associate with.
MOST READ IN OPINION
COMMENT
OLIVIA UTLEY
We've been spared a Marxist PM who planned to decimate Britain in months
COMMENT
DAN WOOTTON
Beeb signed its death warrant by axing BBC3... why pay if we don't watch it?
COMMENT
THE SUN SAYS
Britain has been saved & now Boris can reunite us and steer us into a new era
COMMENT
IAN AUSTIN
Tories' crushing win after 9yrs of austerity shows Labour need complete rethink
COMMENT
THE SUN SAYS
If Boris wins, a bright future begins… if Corbyn gets in, the lights will go out
I spent much of the last week in the North East. Painter Rob Scott, 57, at Fergusons Transport, in Washington, Tyne and Wear, summed it up: “Boris seems like an ordinary bloke you could have a drink with. I don’t mind buying.”
What about his colourful sexual past?
“I wish I had his love life,” said Rob.
Corbyn's supporters. He organized this protest when Trump visited London.
Why would Trump want to grab those hideous pussies when he has this to fuck.
Trump welcomes Boris Johnson's landslide election victory
Tom Embury-Dennis
,
The Independent•December 13, 2019
US President Donald J. Trump speaks to the media on the South Lawn of the White House: EPA
Donald Trump has welcomed Boris Johnson's landslide election victory over Jeremy Corbyn.
"Looking like a big win for Boris in the U.K.!" the US president tweeted late on Thursday evening.
Mr Trump had previously waded into the contest, when he last month said Labour leader Mr Corbyn would be "so bad" for Britain and that Mr Johnson should form a pact with Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.
According to an exit poll, Mr Johnson is forecast to win a Conservative majority of 86 in the House of Commons.
The survey of voters at polling stations across the UK suggests that Conservatives will win around 368 seats to Labour’s 191, with Liberal Democrats on 13 and the Scottish National Party on 55.
If confirmed when the votes are counted, this would deliver the largest Tory majority since 1987 and would clear the way for Mr Johnson to take the UK out of the EU on 31 January and enjoy a free hand to implement his programme in a term of at least four and a half years in Downing Street.
More follows…
Tom Embury-Dennis
,
The Independent•December 13, 2019
US President Donald J. Trump speaks to the media on the South Lawn of the White House: EPA
Donald Trump has welcomed Boris Johnson's landslide election victory over Jeremy Corbyn.
"Looking like a big win for Boris in the U.K.!" the US president tweeted late on Thursday evening.
Mr Trump had previously waded into the contest, when he last month said Labour leader Mr Corbyn would be "so bad" for Britain and that Mr Johnson should form a pact with Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.
According to an exit poll, Mr Johnson is forecast to win a Conservative majority of 86 in the House of Commons.
The survey of voters at polling stations across the UK suggests that Conservatives will win around 368 seats to Labour’s 191, with Liberal Democrats on 13 and the Scottish National Party on 55.
If confirmed when the votes are counted, this would deliver the largest Tory majority since 1987 and would clear the way for Mr Johnson to take the UK out of the EU on 31 January and enjoy a free hand to implement his programme in a term of at least four and a half years in Downing Street.
More follows…
More like how the demographics had changed. Demographics is destiny.
For example, in the USA, the Somali refugees were dumped in Minnesota.
Consequently, this happened:
Politics
Boris Johnson’s Next Brexit Steps: Get It Done, Then Define It
By
Joe Mayes
December 13, 2019, 2:17 PM GMT+13
Boris Johnson is on course for an election victory that will allow him to get Brexit done. Now he will have to define what it means.
His projected 86-seat parliamentary majority will allow him to take Britain out of the European Union in January after almost four years of political turmoil. The size of his predicted win should give him freedom to define Britain’s future relationship with the EU.
Beyond repeatedly telling voters he wants to get Brexit done, Johnson has been notably reticent during the campaign about what it will actually mean in practice. Once Britain leaves, he will first need to strike a trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020.
If Johnson wants access to the bloc’s single market, he will have to give up control in some areas -- in particular taxation, labor and environmental standards. Hard-liners in his party are likely to object to that, and push for a clean break at the end of the year. But a big majority could allow him to marginalize them and cut a deal that keeps the U.K. more closely aligned with the EU.
At stake is what kind of country Britain will be in a decade’s time: one that looks much like any other EU country -- or another in which it looks something like Singapore, with a lower-tax and lightly regulated economy. Johnson’s premiership will be defined by these tensions.
Whatever happens, Brexit won’t be done by Jan. 31. Here are the next steps for Johnson:
Pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill - January 2020
Lawmakers return to Parliament on Dec. 17 and Johnson will want to move rapidly to enact the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the formal legislation taking Britain out of the EU. First, though, he will have to pass a Queen’s Speech -- proving he has the confidence of the House of Commons -- so the Brexit law may have to wait until the new year.
Given all his candidates have promised to support the legislation, Johnson is unlikely to face obstacles in the Commons. Convention dictates that the unelected House of Lords refrains from blocking policies that are included in party manifestos -- but Brexit has shown past practice can count for little.
Johnson will need to steer the legislation through parliament before Jan. 31, otherwise Britain would crash out of the EU without any agreement in place. Then the country will enter a transition period, during which time almost all EU rules will continue to apply. It will feel like nothing has changed.
Negotiate the EU Trade Deal - Spring & Summer 2020
Johnson’s focus will then turn to negotiating a new trade relationship with the EU. He will be working against the clock, having just 11 months to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement -- a process which normally takes several years.
Testing Britain’s Patience
Previous trade deals have taken years to conclude
Note: EU-Mercosur is still only a draft accord requiring formal approval
First, he will need to hold a Parliamentary vote on his negotiating objectives. He may face pressure here from the hard-liners in his own party, who yearn for the freedom to diverge from EU standards. Then he will need to appoint a negotiating team.
The EU will also need to agree its negotiating mandate before talks start. Getting these approvals will eat into the transition period.
The contradiction Johnson will have to resolve in the trade is his desire for both autonomy from EU rules and access to the single market. The EU has indicated it is willing to give Britain a zero-tariff, zero-quota deal -- on condition the U.K. doesn’t become a lightly-regulated Singapore-on-Thames.
The EU is also likely to take a tough line on key priorities for big member states like France and Spain. Expect to hear more on access to fishing waters and the status of Gibraltar, the tiny British territory to which Madrid lays claim.
Decide on Extending the Transition Period - July 2020
The U.K. and the EU have until July 1 to decide whether to extend the transition period by up to a further two years, if both sides need more time for negotiations.
The Conservatives ruled out extending the transition in their manifesto -- even though trade experts say completing a comprehensive agreement by the end of 2020 is highly unlikely. That leaves open the risk that Britain could still crash out without a trade agreement in place. But, with his majority, Johnson could just decide to extend the transition period.
Trade Negotiations Continue - Autumn & Winter 2020
If the transition isn’t extended, the U.K. and the EU will face an intense six months to finalize a deal. The danger for Johnson in this period is that he will come under pressure to cede to the EU’s demands in areas such as fishing and food standards in order to avoid crashing out without a deal, Ivan Rogers, the U.K.’s former ambassador to the EU, warned in a lecture in November.
The House of Commons will have to approve the future relationship agreement. Each of the EU’s 27 national parliaments as well the EU Parliament itself will have to ratify it too.
The Start of a New Relationship? - January 2021
The first day of 2021 should mark the start of the U.K.’s relationship with the EU. Either a future relationship deal will be in place -- or the U.K. will default to trading with the EU on basic World Trade Organization terms. This would look much like a no-deal Brexit.
For Johnson, the risk is this timetable slips -- allowing Brexit to go on sucking the oxygen out of political debate. His bet is that the logistics of negotiating a trade deal prove far less controversial than the act of leaving itself.
Boris Johnson’s Next Brexit Steps: Get It Done, Then Define It
By
Joe Mayes
December 13, 2019, 2:17 PM GMT+13
Boris Johnson is on course for an election victory that will allow him to get Brexit done. Now he will have to define what it means.
His projected 86-seat parliamentary majority will allow him to take Britain out of the European Union in January after almost four years of political turmoil. The size of his predicted win should give him freedom to define Britain’s future relationship with the EU.
Beyond repeatedly telling voters he wants to get Brexit done, Johnson has been notably reticent during the campaign about what it will actually mean in practice. Once Britain leaves, he will first need to strike a trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020.
If Johnson wants access to the bloc’s single market, he will have to give up control in some areas -- in particular taxation, labor and environmental standards. Hard-liners in his party are likely to object to that, and push for a clean break at the end of the year. But a big majority could allow him to marginalize them and cut a deal that keeps the U.K. more closely aligned with the EU.
At stake is what kind of country Britain will be in a decade’s time: one that looks much like any other EU country -- or another in which it looks something like Singapore, with a lower-tax and lightly regulated economy. Johnson’s premiership will be defined by these tensions.
Whatever happens, Brexit won’t be done by Jan. 31. Here are the next steps for Johnson:
Pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill - January 2020
Lawmakers return to Parliament on Dec. 17 and Johnson will want to move rapidly to enact the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the formal legislation taking Britain out of the EU. First, though, he will have to pass a Queen’s Speech -- proving he has the confidence of the House of Commons -- so the Brexit law may have to wait until the new year.
Given all his candidates have promised to support the legislation, Johnson is unlikely to face obstacles in the Commons. Convention dictates that the unelected House of Lords refrains from blocking policies that are included in party manifestos -- but Brexit has shown past practice can count for little.
Johnson will need to steer the legislation through parliament before Jan. 31, otherwise Britain would crash out of the EU without any agreement in place. Then the country will enter a transition period, during which time almost all EU rules will continue to apply. It will feel like nothing has changed.
Negotiate the EU Trade Deal - Spring & Summer 2020
Johnson’s focus will then turn to negotiating a new trade relationship with the EU. He will be working against the clock, having just 11 months to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement -- a process which normally takes several years.
Testing Britain’s Patience
Previous trade deals have taken years to conclude
Note: EU-Mercosur is still only a draft accord requiring formal approval
First, he will need to hold a Parliamentary vote on his negotiating objectives. He may face pressure here from the hard-liners in his own party, who yearn for the freedom to diverge from EU standards. Then he will need to appoint a negotiating team.
The EU will also need to agree its negotiating mandate before talks start. Getting these approvals will eat into the transition period.
The contradiction Johnson will have to resolve in the trade is his desire for both autonomy from EU rules and access to the single market. The EU has indicated it is willing to give Britain a zero-tariff, zero-quota deal -- on condition the U.K. doesn’t become a lightly-regulated Singapore-on-Thames.
The EU is also likely to take a tough line on key priorities for big member states like France and Spain. Expect to hear more on access to fishing waters and the status of Gibraltar, the tiny British territory to which Madrid lays claim.
Decide on Extending the Transition Period - July 2020
The U.K. and the EU have until July 1 to decide whether to extend the transition period by up to a further two years, if both sides need more time for negotiations.
The Conservatives ruled out extending the transition in their manifesto -- even though trade experts say completing a comprehensive agreement by the end of 2020 is highly unlikely. That leaves open the risk that Britain could still crash out without a trade agreement in place. But, with his majority, Johnson could just decide to extend the transition period.
Trade Negotiations Continue - Autumn & Winter 2020
If the transition isn’t extended, the U.K. and the EU will face an intense six months to finalize a deal. The danger for Johnson in this period is that he will come under pressure to cede to the EU’s demands in areas such as fishing and food standards in order to avoid crashing out without a deal, Ivan Rogers, the U.K.’s former ambassador to the EU, warned in a lecture in November.
The House of Commons will have to approve the future relationship agreement. Each of the EU’s 27 national parliaments as well the EU Parliament itself will have to ratify it too.
The Start of a New Relationship? - January 2021
The first day of 2021 should mark the start of the U.K.’s relationship with the EU. Either a future relationship deal will be in place -- or the U.K. will default to trading with the EU on basic World Trade Organization terms. This would look much like a no-deal Brexit.
For Johnson, the risk is this timetable slips -- allowing Brexit to go on sucking the oxygen out of political debate. His bet is that the logistics of negotiating a trade deal prove far less controversial than the act of leaving itself.
More like how the demographics had changed. Demographics is destiny.
For example, in the USA, the Somali refugees were dumped in Minnesota.
Consequently, this happened:
Those numbers alone would not swing things. The problem is not the refugees it's the libtards (commies in sheeps' clothing) that get behind them.
Similar threads
