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Serious Tonight SG Time, Hurricane Katrina Version 2 = Harvey @ Texas

Discussion in 'The Courtyard Café' started by roti_island, Aug 25, 2017.

  1. roti_island

    roti_island Alfrescian Old Timer

    Aug 28, 2008
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    Katrina @ New Orleans killed more than 1800 people.


    Rapidly strengthening Harvey forecast to slam East Texas as major hurricane
    By Brian McNoldy and Jason Samenow August 24 at 12:50 PM
    Harvey, at 10:15 a.m. eastern Thursday morning. (NOAA)

    (This story, originally published at 11:05 a.m., was updated at 12:50 p.m. to include new forecast information.)

    Tropical Storm Harvey is rapidly intensifying in the central Gulf of Mexico and is predicted to plow into east Texas as a very serious hurricane late Friday.

    An incredible amount of rain, exceeding 20 inches in some areas, is likely as the storm is predicted to stall and unload torrential downpours for four to six straight days.

    “Trying not to be dramatic, but I fear epic flood catastrophe,” tweeted Marshall Shepherd, a former president of the American Meteorological Society.

    GFS model storm projection Friday night through Wednesday night. (PivotalWeather.com)

    Not only are the rain and flooding concerns huge, but the storm also has the potential to generate destructive winds and a devastating storm surge — or raise the water above normally dry land at the coast.

    Because it is positioned over extremely warm waters and strengthening so fast, Harvey may become the first major hurricane landfall, rated Category 3 or higher (on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson intensity scale) to strike U.S. soil in 12 years. This is now the official forecast of the National Hurricane Center, which predicts the storm to make landfall as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds.

    “Harvey has intensified quickly this morning, and is now forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast,” the Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. discussion.

    On Wednesday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency in anticipation of the storm in 30 counties. Evacuation orders may come for some coastal areas Thursday.

    At 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Harvey had 65 mph peak winds and was centered about 365 miles south-southeast of Corpus Christi. It is tracking toward the north-northwest at 10 mph and is expected to become a hurricane shortly.

    Hurricane, storm surge and flood warnings plastered coastal and inland portions of east Texas on Thursday morning, and tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to reach the Texas coastline Friday morning.

    (National Hurricane Center)

    The general computer model consensus is that Harvey will make landfall Friday night between Port Mansfield and San Luis Pass, Tex., the zone under a hurricane warning. The biggest population center in this area is Corpus Christi — which may end up very close to the landfall location.

    The five-day “cone of uncertainty,” an illustration of where the storm may track, is squashed down to a circle, indicating that after coming ashore, the storm may stall, unleashing its wrath over the same general area through at least Monday or Tuesday.

    (National Hurricane Center)

    The rain and wind from the storm could have profound effects on oil refineries near its path.

    Texas has not been hit by a hurricane since 2008, when Ike crashed ashore near Galveston. Harvey could be a storm Texans remember for many years to come.

    The rain

    The rain forecasts are truly ominous. “Somebody is going to get a rainstorm to tell their grandkids about,” said Bill Read, a former director of the National Hurricane Center.

    Areas from the Texas-Louisiana border up to Corpus Christi may see 12 to 20 inches of rain, with some locations seeing well over two feet. A few models forecast up to four feet of rain in isolated locations, so the potential exists for a flood event of historic proportions. But it is impossible to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will fall.


    Seven-day cumulative rainfall forecast. (NOAA/WPC)

    Houston, the nation’s fourth-largest city, could receive 10 to 20 inches of rain from the storm, depending on exactly where it tracks — with the heaviest moving in Saturday or Sunday and then continuing into early next week. Matt Lanza, a meteorologist based in Houston, said 20 inches would be “devastating” for the city, depending where it fell. A worst-case scenario, Lanza said, would be for this amount of rain to fall just northwest of downtown as “all that water has to push through the Bayou networks across the city into Galveston Bay.”

    GFS model rainfall forecast through Thursday morning. (PivotalWeather.com)

    Especially late this weekend and into early next, areas of western and southern Louisiana could also be hard hit with double digit rainfall totals.

    Storm surge

    The Hurricane Center predicts 6 to 10 feet of water — above normally dry land — inundating coastal areas immediately to the east and north of the landfall location. That amount is based on the assumption that Harvey makes landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. But the surge could be even higher (or lower) if the storm is stronger (or weaker) and will be adjusted as the forecast evolves. It is critical that affected residents heed evacuation orders.

    Keep in mind that the timing of normal astronomical tides is a factor. If the highest storm surge arrives at or near high tide, the total “storm tide” will be maximized. As the timing of landfall is pinned down, forecasts of the storm tide timing and depth will be improved as well.


    The official forecast is that Harvey will produce maximum sustained winds of 115 mph when it comes ashore, strong enough to cause widespread power outages and significant damage to homes and businesses.

    Prototype #Harvey outage estimate model now being run. At website: [url]https://t.co/UMLPAXkJfE[/url] My colleague Steve Quiring (Ohio State) et al pic.twitter.com/PLJdGerEhn

    — Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013) August 24, 2017


    The storm’s exact intensity is unfortunately a wild card at this point. Rapid intensification, which has begun, is a poorly understood and poorly modeled process. But, with absolutely ideal environmental conditions, there is reasonable possibility that Harvey becomes a major hurricane by landfall Friday. The last major hurricane to make landfall on the United States was Wilma in October 2005.

    In addition to the uncertainty in the winds speeds, which has implications for how big the storm surge is, the other important uncertainties are the storm’s motion and duration, which have significant implications for where the heaviest rain falls and how long it lasts.

    Right now, it is important for Texans in the path of this storm to understand — irrespective of where the storm makes landfall — Harvey’s footprint will be enormous because of its long duration. Preparations should begin immediately.



  2. roti_island

    roti_island Alfrescian Old Timer

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  3. roti_island

    roti_island Alfrescian Old Timer

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  4. PopeBandit16

    PopeBandit16 Alfrescian Old Timer

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  5. winnipegjets

    winnipegjets Alfrescian (Inf)

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    Everyone should have in his bucket list to experience a Category 3 or higher hurricane. Corpus Christi welcomes you.
  6. roti_island

    roti_island Alfrescian Old Timer

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    Huricane Harvey whacking there already. Roofs are flying away from buildings.


    Hurricane Harvey makes landfall as Category 4 storm -- live updates

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    Last Updated Aug 26, 2017 12:56 AM EDT

    HOUSTON -- Harvey made landfall just after 11 p.m. Friday just north of Port Aransas as a Category 4 storm, the National Weather Service said.

    Harvey is expected to slow down as it moves inland overnight Friday into Saturday, CBS affiliate KZTV reports. Due to its slow speed and closeness to water, the winds of Harvey will not die down anytime soon. Hurricane force wind gusts are likely near the eye for several more hours.

    As Harvey barreled toward the Texas Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center warned Texans to prepare for "life-threatening flash flooding."

    The National Weather Service warns some residents may not be able to return to their homes for weeks or months.

    Houston is bracing for 15 to 25 inches of rainfall, with some areas getting up to 3 feet of total rainfall by Wednesday, CBS affiliate KHOU-TV reports.

    "In terms of economic impact, Harvey will probably be on par with Hurricane Katrina," Brian McNoldy, a senior hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, told the Associated Press. "The Houston area and Corpus Christi are going to be a mess for a long time."

    Follow along below for live updates on the storm. All times are Eastern.
    12:30 a.m.: Facebook activates "Safety Check" feature

    Facebook has activated its Safety Check feature for Hurricane Harvey, allowing Facebook users to inform friends and family of their whereabouts during the weather emergency.

    Facebook users can also find the feature on their smartphone apps. As CBSNews.com sibling site CNET explains: "Safety Check is now integrated into the mobile apps, meaning you can manually notify friends of your status as well as follow crises worldwide and even offer support. The only trick is finding it. When Facebook does a server-side activation, you'll usually see a notification right at the top of the app. But if you want to access the feature yourself, it requires a bit of menu-diving."

    Here's a primer from CNET on how to find the feature on Android devices and iPhones.
    12:00 a.m.: Roof collapses at senior housing complex

    Several residents are trapped inside a senior housing complex in Rockpot, Texas, where a roof collapsed, a city manager confirmed to CBS News' David Begnaud.

    City manager in Rockport, TX tells CBS News people trapped inside of senior housing complex where roof collapsed; rescuers unable to get in
    — David Begnaud (@DavidBegnaud) August 26, 2017

    A couple is trapped in a mobile home in Rockport after a tree fell on it, according to Rockport City Manager Kevin Carruth.

    More than 32,000 homes and businesses have lost power in Corpus Christi, CBS affiliate KZTV reports. The city of Corpus Christi has issued a precautionary water boil advisory.

    The City of Corpus Christi.. yeah, I'd say we lost some power. #hurricaneharvey ???? pic.twitter.com/CAO8hy3oCl
    — Marisol Gonzalez (@MarisolKZTV) August 26, 2017

    Large shipping boats in Port Aransas have broken away from their moorings, leading to significant damage, KZTV reports.

    Storm surges up to 13 feet are predicted in some places with up to 40 inches of rain over several days. The National Weather Service warns some residents may not be able to return to their homes for weeks or months.
    11:05 p.m.: Harvey makes landfall

    The eye of Harvey landfall just after 11 p.m. between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor as a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds, the National Weather Service said.

    #Harvey made landfall at 10 PM CDT as a category 4 hurricane near Rockport, Texas, with max winds of 130 mph and min pressure of 938 mb. pic.twitter.com/98y5wpKmBw
    — NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) August 26, 2017

    9:51 p.m.: President Trump signs disaster proclamation

    President Trump tweeted shortly before 10 p.m. that he had signed a disaster proclamation, which Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said earlier Friday he had requested. The disaster proclamation will allow federal funds to flow into state and local relief efforts.

    According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm is expected to make landfall "very soon."

    Eye of Category 4 #Harvey almost onshore in Texas. Hurricane force winds reported at many observing stations. Landfall expected very soon. pic.twitter.com/JZ4tE1Bvbx
    — NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) August 26, 2017

    8:20 p.m.: Evacuees seek refuge in San Antonio

    Hundreds of evacuees seeking shelter from Hurricane Harvey arrived in San Antonio on Friday, CBS affiliate KENS-TV reports.

    Two shelters opened their doors Friday morning, and city officials announced they would make room for at least 6,000 evacuees.

    "I get deep anxiety when it comes to stuff like this," Justine Vela of Corpus Christi told the station. Vela packed up her four children and left for San Antonio.

    "My kids don't kinda know what's going on because they are little," she said. "I'm trying to keep them calm and safe. This is the best place for us to be right now."
    7:45 p.m.: Trump prepares to face first major natural disaster as president
    Trump prepares for first major natural disaster as president
    Play Video
    Trump prepares for first major natural disaster as president

    Hurricane Harvey will be the first major natural disaster of President Trump's administration. The White House is saying FEMA has changed since the organization's dismal response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, CBS News' chief White House correspondent Major Garrett reports.

    The failures of Katrina haunt emergency planners to this day, so much so, White House Homeland Security Adviser Tom Bossert felt compelled to say "now is not the time to lose faith in your government institutions."

    "All the mayors and governors saw what happened at Katrina and they're not gonna let that happen," says David Paulison, who headed FEMA after Katrina and until 2009. He says that Katrina changed management procedures.

    "Before we waited for the local community to become overwhelmed before the state stepped in, and waited for the state to become overwhelmed before the federal government stepped in," Paulison tells Garrett.
    7:40 p.m.: FEMA urges residents to follow future orders

    Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) officials are encouraging residents and visitors in Hurricane Harvey's path to follow directions from local and state officials.

    "I encourage residents who will be affected to follow directions from their local officials," Administrator Brock Long said in a statement. "Know your threats, heed the warnings, and if you're in the path of the storm, ensure your family is prepared for possible prolonged disruptions to normal services."

    The agency has set up bases near Seguin, Texas, and areas closer to the storm's path to store supplies including more than 96,000 liters of water, 306,000 meals and 4,500 tarps and blankets, the Associated Press reports. State and local officials will be responsible for distributing the materials as needed.
    7:20 p.m.: 20-30 inches of rain expected in Victoria, Texas
    Hurricane Harvey could dump feet of rain in Texas
    Play Video
    Hurricane Harvey could dump feet of rain in Texas

    Victoria, Texas, is about 20 miles from the coast, but the distance is not expected to shield it from the worst impacts of Hurricane Harvey. Aside from winds up to 105 miles per hour, the biggest threat is the rain, CBS News' Manuel Bojorquez reports.

    Victoria is in the bull's eye of Hurricane Harvey's rain, with 20-30 inches expected over the next 72 hours. that's a year's worth of rain for this city.

    The flooding is expected to be worse than Victoria's 1998 disaster.

    "We've never seen a forecast for that kind of localized rain, and I've been working hurricanes and emergencies here for several years. It's the most dangerous forecast we've ever seen," said O.C. Garza the Victoria Office of Emergency Management.
    7:15 p.m.: Corpus Christi police stop responding to emergency calls
    Millions flee for safety ahead of Hurricane Harvey
    Play Video
    Millions flee for safety ahead of Hurricane Harvey

    Corpus Christi police are not responding to calls for emergency service because of the current weather conditions. If you live in the area and you want to get out, the free bus rides are over and the city has discontinued the service, CBS News correspondent David Begnaud reports.

    The National Weather Service says winds could leave homes uninhabitable for weeks or even months. Storm surge could reach 12 feet -- that's strong enough to wash away vehicles, Begnaud reports.

    Fears of a power outage forced the sickest babies at a children's hospital to be moved out of the hurricane's path. Others are heeding the warnings and evacuating on their own.
    7:02 p.m.: Hurricane Harvey upgraded to Category 4 storm

    The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Hurricane Harvey to a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and is moving northwest at a speed of 8 miles an hour. The storm is about 45 miles outside of Corpus Christi.

    NEW: #Harvey continues to intensify and is now a category 4 #hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/7CkJkuafTb
    — NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) August 25, 2017

    6:09 p.m.: Houston officials resist calls for evacuation

    Houston is bracing for dozens of inches of rain, but officials are urging residents to stay put.

    Judge Ed Emmett, Harris County's top official, said "no mass evacuations" would be called because the hurricane would not "directly" hit the area.

    "Always say run from water, hide from wind, we mean storm surge, not rain. [It's] not the kind of water we would ask people to evacuation from," Emmett said.

    Mayor Sylvester Turner also urged residents to stay off roads and in their homes. Turner said there might be "greater danger" in having residents who don't need to be evacuated onto roads that could possibly flood, the Associated Press reports.
    6:13 p.m.: NWS issues "EXTREME WIND WARNING"

    The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a warning for southwestern Calhoun County in south Texas, urging residents to "TAKE COVER NOW!"

    "Widespread destructive winds of 115 to 145 mph will spread across Calhoun County, Aransas County, Nueces County, San Patricio County, Refugio County, producing swaths of tornado-like damage," the advisory says. "TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your shelter. Take action now to protect your life!"
    5:08 p.m.: Wind speeds reach 125 mph, officials warn of "catastrophic flooding"

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says in an update that Harvey now has wind speeds of 125 mph. It's now about 60 miles southeast of Corpus Christi.

    The NHC also says some areas of Texas could get 40 inches of rain and cause "catastrophic flooding." The storm surge is expected to be between 6 to 12 feet along parts of the coast.
    5:06 p.m.: Feds won't question families about immigration status at shelters

    Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) issued a joint statement Friday saying they won't question the immigration status of families arriving to hurricane shelters in Texas and Louisiana.

    The agencies said their "highest priorities are to promote life-saving and life-sustaining activities, the safe evacuation of people who are leaving the impacted area, the maintenance of public order, the prevention of the loss of property to the extent possible, and the speedy recovery of the region."

    The joint statement said that routine "non-criminal immigration enforcement operations" would not be conducted at evacuation sites or assistance centers such as shelters or food banks.

    It also warned that immigration laws would not be suspended, and the agencies would "be vigilant against any effort by criminals to exploit disruptions caused by the storm."
    5:03 p.m.: President Trump arrives at Camp David

    The president has arrived at Camp David, where he will be monitoring the storm over the weekend:

    Just arrived at Camp David where I am closely watching the path and doings of Hurricane Harvey, as it strengthens to a Category 3. BE SAFE!
    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 25, 2017

    4:50 p.m.: National Weather Service director: "The impacts will be extreme"

    National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini issued a warning to Louisiana and Texas residents on Friday, calling the impact of Hurricane Harvey "extreme" and "devastating."

    "Catastrophic inland flooding due to incredible rainfall amounts and damaging wind will also be associated with this storm," Uccellini said in a statement Friday. "The flooding will be catastrophic and life threatening. The economic impact will likely be devastating."

    Harvey is a dangerous, life threatening storm. Stay Safe. #Harvey2017 #txwx #lawx pic.twitter.com/H9MN9graju
    — NWS (@NWS) August 25, 2017

    4:46 p.m.: NASA posts photos of storm from space

    NASA posted new photos of Harvey from the International Space Station taken by astronaut Jack Fischer:

    [email protected] orbited over Hurricane #Harvey2017 and photographed the storm bearing down on the Texas coast. pic.twitter.com/eBzNc7NlMZ
    — Intl. Space Station (@Space_Station) August 25, 2017

    4:38 p.m.: Coast Guard rescues 12

    The U.S. Coast Guard says it has rescued 12 people from the storm near Corpus Christi.

    Breaking News: @USCG Air Station Corpus Christi rescued 12 as #HurricaneHarvey nears. Updates to follow soon at https://t.co/AJyH7tl8P9. pic.twitter.com/WRA8KzFQdy
    — USCG Heartland (@USCGHeartland) August 25, 2017

    4:30 p.m.: Corpus Christi mayor: "You can't force people to leave"

    Corpus Christi Mayor Joe McComb told CBSN that he hadn't issued a mandatory evacuation order citywide because "you can't force people to leave and send police out there and drag them out."

    He added, "you can highly recommend it, and we've done that, and say they need to get out of low-lying areas."

    McComb said he'd received a positive response of residents who were seeking higher grounds. "Many people have gone to San Antonio and points beyond," he said Friday.
    4:15 p.m.: Tornado threats in Louisiana and Texas

    The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for for parts of Louisiana and Texas lasting until 3:00 a.m. on Saturday.

    A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Louisiana and Texas until 2 AM CDT pic.twitter.com/WjHxXSSDFt
    — NWS Houston (@NWSHouston) August 25, 2017

    4:00 p.m.: Vice President Pence halts travel

    Vice President Mike Pence will remain in Washington D.C. during the storm, his spokesman Marc Lotter announced on Twitter. Pence will coordinate with President Trump as he visits Camp David with first lady Melania Trump on Friday.

    The White House said Marine One landed at Camp David at 3:46 p.m. on Friday, according to the pool report.

    Due to #HurricaneHarvey, @VP Pence will remain in DC this wknd, coordinating with @POTUS Trump at Camp David, monitoring storm & response.
    — Marc Lotter (@VPPressSec) August 25, 2017

    3:18 p.m.: President Trump tweets about Harvey

    President Trump addressed the threat of Hurricane Harvey on Friday, urging residents to follow the advice of local and state officials.

    I encourage everyone in the path of #HurricaneHarvey to heed the advice & orders of their local and state officials. https://t.co/N6uEWCZUrv
    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 25, 2017

    3:15 p.m.: Texas governor requests disaster declaration

    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott held an afternoon news conference warning residents that Harvey is going to be a "very major disaster." Abbott said Friday that he's asked President Trump for a federal disaster declaration.

    Abbott warned residents in coastal areas to evacuate their homes, even if local officials hadn't issued an official warning.

    "Even if an evacuation order has not been issued by your local official," Abbott said, "if you are in areas between Corpus Christi and Houston, and maybe even some other areas, especially low lying areas, you need to strongly consider evacuating."

    He added, "You don't want to put yourself in a situation where you could be subject to a search and rescue."
    3:00 p.m.: Hurricane Harvey reaches Category 3

    Harvey became a Category 3 hurricane Friday afternoon, with sustained winds of 120 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.

    #Harvey is now a category 3 #hurricane with 120-mph winds & a pressure of 943 mb (27.85") See the latest advisory at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/s0FrcURAsA
    — NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) August 25, 2017
  7. roti_island

    roti_island Alfrescian Old Timer

    Aug 28, 2008
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