Tiagong….there is some little problems in the teacup de woh

[k1976]

Risks Abound If Trump Ties Tariffs to a Balance-of-Payments Crisis​

By Shawn Donnan
June 2, 2025 at 7:00 PM GMT+8


Countries tend to avoid declaring they’re facing balance-of-payments problems, for good reason. They unnerve markets. They remind people of policy failures in places like Argentina, Greece or Thailand. They conjure up images of IMF technocrats flying in to enforce austerity regimes.

But after a US court last week ruled the bulk of his global tariffs illegal, that may be the step President Donald Trump is forced to contemplate if he wants to keep his import taxes. Which raises all sorts of interesting questions for financial markets.


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[k1976]

Hong Kong’s New World Development Tumbles On Bond Payment Delays Amid Debt Troubles​

New World’s decision to defer interest payments on several bonds triggered a 6.5% drop in its shares on Monday.
ByZinnia Lee,

Forbes Staff.
I cover successful businesspeople and billionaires in Asia.

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Jun 02, 2025 at 04:38am EDT
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New World Development's K11 Musea shopping mall, part of the company's flagship Victoria Dockside development in Hong Kong's Tsim Sha Tsui district.

PAUL YEUNG/BLOOMBERG

Shares of New World Development, controlled by Hong Kong’s billionaire Cheng family, dropped almost 6.5% on Monday after the debt-laden property developer deferred interest payments on several bonds, deepening investor concerns over its liquidity.



In a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Friday, New World said it had postponed the coupon payments on two perpetual bonds due on June 9 and June 10. The company added that it plans to defer payments on two other bonds due later this month.


New World has been struggling to turn around its business amid an ongoing property downturn in Hong Kong and mainland China, prompted by a mix of challenges including the pandemic and interest rate hikes. In the six months ended December, the company posted a net loss of HK$6.6 billion ($846 million), due to writedowns on its residential and commercial properties. With improved property sales, its revenue dipped 1.6% to HK$16.8 billion. Weighed down by HK$124.6 billion in debt, New World reported a net gearing ratio of 57.5%, the highest among Hong Kong major property developers.


New World’s decision to defer bond interest payments “is not too surprising given that it still sees quite high liquidity pressure,” said Jeff Zhang, an equity analyst at research firm Morningstar. “Despite the recent acceleration of property sales, we don’t really think New World’s liquidity has improved significantly.”


Zhang said New World’s progress of bond interest payments hinges on loan refinancing. The property developer has asked banks to refinance HK$87.5 billion of its loans by the end of June, and had so far secured written commitments for 60% of that amount, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources. “If refinancing is proceeding as planned, New World will likely avert any imminent default,” said Zhang.

 

[k1976]

Japan’s Debt, Now Twice the Size of Its Economy, Forces Hard Choices​

Japan’s government faces pressure to curtail debt-fueled spending that some argue has staved off populist waves.

Japan has long used debt-fueled spending to tackle the country’s challenges.Credit...Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times

By River Akira Davis and Hisako Ueno

Reporting from Tokyo
May 28, 2025
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Japan, which has the highest government debt among leading economies, is finding it difficult to spend like it used to.

Debt-fueled public spending, enabled by low interest rates, has long been a way to address the country’s problems. Struggling farmers and emptying countrysides received generous payments from the central government. Relief aid during the Covid-19 pandemic morphed into new outlays for defense and subsidies to help consumers weather inflation.

The spending continued even as more social security funding was needed for Japan’s growing number of seniors. Government debt has ballooned to nearly $9 trillion — more than double the size of the economy.

 

[k1976]

US debt is 'sound', no concerns about US dollar's reserve role, Taiwan's central bank says​

01 Jun 2025 08:46PM
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TAIPEI :Taiwan's central bank said on Sunday that U.S. government debt is "sound" and still favoured by investors, and there are no worries about the U.S. dollar's position as the leading international reserve currency.

U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff announcement on April 2, which led to a market rout, including in U.S. Treasuries, has cast doubt over the dollar's safe-haven status.

 

[k1976]

ASEAN's Debt Divide: Tracking the Region's Rising Fiscal Burdens​

MONDAY, JUNE 02, 2025

Despite its status as a global economic powerhouse, the ASEAN bloc faces a growing public debt challenge post-pandemic, with national fiscal policies and economic structures determining which countries manage to control or reduce their burdens amidst varying growth rate​

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continues to command global attention, widely recognised as an "emerging star" region with several economies experiencing robust and sustained expansion over recent years.



Over the past five years (2020–2024), the economies of ASEAN member states collectively registered an impressive average annual growth rate of approximately 4.2%.



This represents a strong performance, particularly when contrasted with other global regions, especially given the backdrop of global economic uncertainty and slowdowns precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic.



Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)indicates that the ASEAN-5 group – comprisingIndonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore,and Thailand – achieved an average growth rate of around 4.0% per annum during this period.



Notably, countries such as Indonesia (4.7%) and the Philippines (5.6%) recorded higher growth rates, whilst Thailand's average growth lagged behind the regional average at approximately 1.8% per year.







Post-Pandemic Fiscal Pressures

However, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak, ASEAN nations across the board have grappled with mounting fiscal pressures.



This escalation stems from extensive economic relief measures, substantial investments in public health infrastructure, and the implementation of expansive stimulus policies.



Consequently, many countries have been compelled to significantly increase their borrowing to cover these burgeoning expenditures.



This trend is starkly reflected in the rising public debt-to-GDP ratios observed across nearly every ASEAN member state.

 

[k1976]

A report by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), drawing on IMF figures, reveals that several countries experienced a significant surge in their public debt levels between 2020 and 2024. Below is a detailed breakdown of public debt figures for ASEAN nations, ordered from highest to lowest debt-to-GDP ratio:



Singapore

Singapore records the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region, escalating from 148.1% in 2020 to 175.2% in 2024, marking an average annual growth of 4.3%. Despite this high level, Singapore's debt strategy primarily involves borrowing for investment in collateralised assets, which are expected to yield long-term returns.



Laos

Laos's debt ratio soared from 76.0% in 2020 to 108.3% in 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 9.3%. This indicates a persistent and rapid expansion of its debt burden, exacerbated by high foreign debt and a pronounced domestic economic slowdown.



Malaysia

Malaysia's debt level exhibited only a marginal change, increasing from 67.7% to 68.4% between 2020 and 2024. With an average annual growth rate of just 0.3%, this points towards commendable fiscal stability and effective public debt control.



Thailand

Thailand's public debt climbed from 49.3% in 2020 to 63.3% in 2024, an average annual rise of 6.4%. This increase reflects the government's essential borrowing to bolster economic recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. Thailand's public debt level is projected to rise further this year.



Philippines

The Philippines saw its debt ratio increase from 51.6% in 2020 to 57.6% in 2024, demonstrating a moderate average annual growth rate of 2.8%.

 

[k1976]

Singapore orders local crypto firms to cease overseas activity by June 30​

Singapore’s central bank has set a June 30 deadline for local crypto firms targeting overseas markets to halt operations or face steep penalties, including fines of almost $200,000.
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Singapore’s central bank has set a deadline of June 30 for local crypto service providers to stop offering digital token (DT) services to overseas markets.

The directive came from the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) response to industry feedback on its proposed regulatory framework for Digital Token Service Providers (DSTPs) under its Financial Services and Markets Act of 2022 (FSM Act).

MAS stated that no transitional arrangements will be made for local DTSPs providing services abroad. It said that any Singapore-incorporated company, individual or partnership that provides DT services outside Singapore must either cease operations or obtain a license when the DTSP provisions come into force by the end of June.

“DTSPs which are subject to a licensing requirement under section 137 of the FSM Act must suspend or cease carrying on a business of providing DT services outside Singapore by 30 June 2025,” MAS wrote.

 

[k1976]

Japan and Singapore show even property safe havens are not problem-free​

Foreign investors’ interest has certainly lifted the economy, but the authorities must make sure locals are not priced out of the market

Nicholas Spiro
Published: 4:30pm, 2 Jun 2025

Two findings stood out in CBRE’s survey on Asia’s commercial property investment market published last month. The first was that Japan alone accounted for 36 per cent of transaction volumes in the first quarter of this year. The second was that it was easily the most popular market among cross-border investors, with 86 per cent of respondents describing their level of interest in Japan as very strong or fairly strong.

These findings underscore the strong appeal of a market that has long been perceived by foreign investors as a safe haven. At a time when the United States – long the safe haven of choice for global investors – has become a source of instability and unpredictability, Japan’s political stability, policy predictability and the depth and liquidity of its real estate market have taken on added significance.

Persistently low interest rates, the cheap yen, the return of inflation after decades of stagnation and Japan’s position as an attractive alternative to China have added to its appeal among investors. Even so, there are signs that Japan has become too appealing.

In the commercial property market, the weight of foreign and domestic capital targeting Japanese assets in the past several years has driven down rental yields for institutional grade properties in Tokyo to extremely low levels. Even in Osaka, a relatively illiquid market, prime office and retail yields are lower than in Seoul and Singapore, which are among the most actively traded markets in the Asia-Pacific.

 

[k1976]

In tiny Singapore, by contrast, the impact of its safe-haven appeal is more visible, necessitating a more forceful policy response. Since 2020, prices in the private residential market have risen by 33 per cent, while prices for second-hand flats built by the Housing and Development Board (HDB), Singapore’s public housing authority, have increased by 44 per cent.

Both markets feed off each other, underscoring the importance of demand from local buyers. The private market benefits from a buoyant HDB resale market as homeowners use the proceeds from the sale of their flats to upgrade to private properties. The HDB resale market, meanwhile, is partly driven by private owners downsizing to more affordable HDB flats.


The strength of local demand has reduced the effectiveness of government measures to take the heat out of the property market. In April 2023, Singapore took the draconian step of doubling the additional stamp duty rate for foreigners buying any residential property to a staggering 60 per cent, far and away the most punitive rate in the world. However, rates for Singaporean citizens and permanent residents buying their first property were left at zero and 5 per cent, respectively.


Fast forward two years and Singapore’s housing market is still remarkably resilient. While the 60 per cent extra stamp duty on foreign buyers crimped demand in the core central region – the area most favoured by foreign investors, especially mainland Chinese buyers – the cooling measures’ residency-based differentiation has limited effectiveness and should be phased out, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

 

[k1976]

Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at property portal Mogul.sg, notes that the share of non-landed private homes purchased by mainland Chinese buyers in the two years following the imposition of the 60 per cent rate did not fall as sharply as the proportion of sales attributed to non-residents. “This suggests most of the Chinese buyers of private homes in Singapore are permanent residents,” Mak said.


Japan and Singapore face challenges stemming from their appeal as safe havens, but these are problems more vulnerable markets in Asia would love to have. While many Japanese complain about overtourism, the fact remains that inbound tourism is now Japan’s second-largest export sector after cars.


In Singapore, while the IMF is right to criticise the government’s residency-based approach to curbing speculative demand in the housing market, successive rounds of cooling measures have prevented damaging booms and busts, ensuring that the public housing system remains accessible and affordable. Safe havens have their challenges, but Japan and Singapore are in an enviable position.