The rest of the world has started to open up - Singapore should do the same

[Leongsam]

More world leaders have been reading my posts and have realised that I have been right from day one. Covid-19 is no worse than the flu. In fact final data may show that it is in fact milder.

__________________________________

theguardian.com

Spain relaxes lockdown as daily coronavirus death toll falls to 517
Stephen Burgen

8-10 minutes


Hundreds of thousands of non-essential employees in Spain have returned to work as European countries grapple with the question of when lockdown restrictions should be eased amid fears of a renewed spike in the coronavirus pandemic.

Police handed workers masks at transport hubs in the capital, Madrid, on Monday and businesses in the construction and manufacturing sectors tentatively reopened, after the government relaxed some lockdown measures put in place two weeks ago that confined most people to their homes.

The controversial return to work for an estimated 300,000 non-essential staff got off to a slow start. Monday is a public holiday in much of the country, including some of the most populous regions such as Catalonia and Valencia. Few commuters were visible at Madrid’s usually bustling Atocha railway station.

The prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has insisted the country remains firmly in lockdown despite the easing of some restrictions. Shops, bars and public houses will remain closed until at least 26 April. The health ministry has called on those returning to work to stagger arrival times and to wear masks where physical distancing is not possible.

Regional leaders have criticised the move amid fears that the hard-fought public health gains of recent days may be lost. Spain’s overnight death toll from the virus fell to 517 on Monday from 619 on Sunday, bringing the total death toll to 17,489, the health ministry said.

It was the smallest proportional daily increase since tracking began. Overall cases rose to 169,496 from 166,019. The health minister, Salvador Illa, said the epidemic had passed its peak. The challenge now was to consolidate the second stage of the struggle against the virus and to reduce new infections, he said.

The trend across Europe appears to show a similar modest flattening of infection and death rates. Italy reported 566 deaths on Monday, 135 more than on Sunday. Almost half of the deaths – 280 – were registered in Lombardy, the northern region worst affected by the virus.

The civil protection authority said the number of people who are currently infected rose by 1,363 (1.3%) to 103,616, in a further sign that the curve is flattening. The number of intensive care beds in use continues to decline, as does the number of people hospitalised for the virus.

European countries face the same dilemma as Spain: whether to ease some lockdown restrictions in order to salvage their battered economies, or to persevere with draconian measures until the decline in cases is conclusively achieved.

Italy’s government has set up a taskforce led by the former chief executive of Vodafone Vittorio Colao to navigate the country’s exit from the coronavirus lockdown. The team of 17 will be responsible for devising a plan as part of “phase two” of the emergency.

It includes Enrico Giovannini, a former labour minister and professor at Tor Vergata University of Rome, as well as other economists, businesspeople, lawyers, sociologists and psychologists. Italy’s lockdown is in place until 4 May, after which the country is expected to gradually reopen.

Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, will decide on Wednesday whether to extend restrictions imposed in mid-March. They are due to expire on Sunday. The latest figures from the Robert Koch public health institute show the rate of infection slowing, with 2,537 new cases on Monday, taking the tally in Germany to 123,016.
The country’s Academy of Sciences Leopoldina has recommended a gradual relaxing of measures. It said schools should reopen as soon as possible, starting with primary and middle schools, followed by shops and restaurants. All government officials should return to work, it said.

Austria is to allow small shops to reopen from Tuesday, and larger ones from 1 May. All restaurants and hotels are due to resume business from mid-May. Denmark will reopen schools and day care centres from Wednesday, although restrictions on public gatherings and on bars and restaurants remain.

The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, urged caution over moves by countries to lift lockdown conditions. He said much was still unknown about the behaviour of the virus, and emphasised that case finding, testing and isolating was still crucial to controlling the outbreak.

He said: “We know that in some countries, Covid-19 cases are doubling every three to four days. However, while Covid-19 accelerates very fast, it decelerates much more slowly. In other words, the way down is much slower than the way up.”

Sánchez said Spain’s decision to reboot some sectors of the economy was taken following consultations with a committee of scientific experts. Any further winding – down would depend on gains made against the virus, he stressed. So far 500,000 people have been fined an average of €300 (£260) for breaking lockdown.
In other developments:

• Russia introduced a new digital permit system for anyone seeking to travel around Moscow during its lockdown. However, the website offering Muscovites a QR-code went offline just hours after launch. Moscow’s mayor blamed an attack by foreign bots.
• China reported 108 new cases, 98 of which were imported from overseas, its highest figure since early March. The country where the disease first emerged has largely brought its domestic outbreak under control, but it faces a fresh battle against imported infections, mostly involving Chinese nationals returning home.
• Indonesia announced 316 new cases of the coronavirus, bringing the total number of infections to 4,557, according to data provided by a health ministry official, Achmad Yurianto. Yurianto said there were also 26 new coronavirus-related deaths, taking the total number of fatalities to 399.
• Japan said it saw no reason at the moment to extend its state of emergency beyond Tokyo and a handful of other cities. The central government declared a state of emergency last week, giving legal authority to governors in Tokyo and six other potential virus hotspot prefectures to ask people to stay home and businesses to close.
• India and Pakistan are planning to partially open up some parts of their economies, officials in both countries said, as the cost of lockdowns mount across the region. Indian officials said the number of cases in the country increased to 9,152 on Monday, including 308 deaths. This is a sharp rise from fewer than 1,000 two weeks ago.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

Not for bloody kangaroo land. They still want lockdown and extend ppl suffering. Assholes. The ppl need to ban together n sue the shit out of the gahmen n throw them out in the next erection.


WA records just three new coronavirus cases but COVID-19 restrictions to last at least six months - ABC News
A head and shoulders shot of WA Premier Mark McGowan talking outdoors during a media conference.
Premier Mark McGowan called the low number of new cases "unambiguously good news".(ABC News: James Carmody)
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Western Australia has recorded another three cases of coronavirus in what Premier Mark McGowan says is the lowest daily increase since the state's testing regime began.

Key points:
Two of WA's three new COVID-19 cases had travelled on cruise ships
Premer Mark McGowan says WA is doing well but "the war isn't won"
He says WA's border closures will remain in place for a long time
It brings WA's total number of cases to 517, with 239 people having recovered from the virus.

All three new cases are West Australians living in the Perth metropolitan area, with two of the patients having travelled on cruise ships in the Mediterranean.

Authorities are still investigating how the third person became infected.

The total number of West Australians who have contracted COVID-19 stands at 449, with the remaining 68 cases involving overseas passengers and crew from the Artania cruise ship.

Mr McGowan said the low number of new cases was "unambiguously good news" and WA had "successfully flattened the curve".

But he said restrictions designed to limit the spread of the virus would remain in place for some time, indicating that would include WA's hard border closure.

A WA police officer stands with his back to the camera looking at two trucks
WA's hard border closure is set to stay in place for at least six months.(ABC Goldfields-Esperance: Jarrod Lucas)
"There's going to be restrictions in place at least for six months in one form or another," he said.

"If you lift the restrictions too early and you get community spread of the illness, it's very difficult to put the genie back in the bottle."

Border restrictions here 'for a long period of time'
Mr McGowan said the state and regional border closures, combined with the international restrictions on people travelling overseas, had been very effective.

"I think the border restrictions are the most important things we've done to ensure that we create a fortress of Western Australia in which we are protected from infection from elsewhere," he said.

"They will certainly remain in place for a long period of time.

"Those things together [have] given Western Australia a lot of hope that we will continue to reduce the rate of infection.

"We will continue to review the measures within Western Australia — certainly not the borders, but the measures within Western Australia — on a monthly basis."

Cafe, restaurant rules may be among first reviewed
The Premier said the first of any potential changes to restrictions would be those which might allow people to return to work.

They included rules surrounding cafes and restaurants.

But he suggested people should not be expecting other restrictions to be relaxed next month, including those limiting public gatherings and travel.

"We've done so well so far. Western Australia has been a leading light of the country and perhaps the entire world and I don't want to see us lose that position.

"I don't want to see people's health outcomes impacted. So whatever we do, we'll be very cautious.

"I'd much rather put in place strong borders than close down more businesses. We want to make sure that we keep people in jobs."

The health advice will guide us: Premier
Mr McGowan said authorities remained cautious and vigilant about the spread of the virus.

"We know that what we've done has been effective, but we also want to make sure that we don't loosen [measures] in ways that cause any problems to arise," he said.

"The health advice will guide us in relation to all of these matters. I don't want to give people false hope, but at the same time I don't want to be too pessimistic.

"If the medical advice says that there can be some alleviation of restrictions and we have very low numbers of infection, and certainly infection of Western Australians from contacts within the state, that will guide any decisions."

Meanwhile, five cruise ships have travelled past Fremantle after leaving South Australia, with two remaining cruise ships still passing the South West and yet to travel up the coast.

 

[yinyang]

More world leaders have been reading my posts and have realised that I have been right from day one. Covid-19 is no worse than the flu. In fact final data may show that it is in fact milder.

Sam, your contrarian views from the onset are a lonely voice in the paranoia wilderness.

 

[Leongsam]

Sam, your contrarian views from the onset are a lonely voice in the paranoia wilderness.

I'm not trying to be a smart alec or anything but I just look at the data and cannot help but draw any other conclusion.

 

[Leongsam]

Sam, your contrarian views from the onset are a lonely voice in the paranoia wilderness.

Just take a look at this report :

Up to 70% of those infected may show no symptoms, making coronavirus tough to tackle

JOYCE TEO

5-6 minutes


Asymptomatic persons with the coronavirus disease are more common than was previously thought - some research says potentially as many as 55 per cent to 70 per cent of infections - and they can go on to infect others without anyone ever finding out.
It is one of three reasons that make Covid-19 such a challenging disease to tackle, National Centre for Infectious Diseases executive director Leo Yee Sin told The Straits Times yesterday.
Another reason is that Covid-19 manifests itself as an innocuous and mild illness, but has high virus secretion at its onset.
"This causes infected individuals to misjudge the seriousness of their illness, and have a tendency to continue routine activities without realising the danger of spreading the infection," she said.
Third, as Sars-CoV-2 is a novel pathogen, the whole of Singapore is susceptible to it.

Now work the numbers. It was "50%" that had no symptoms. Now it has been scaled up to 70%.

What that means is that in the general population a lot more people than we thought have caught Covid-19 and they don't even know they are sick.

If that is not good news I don't know what is.

Supposing a new weapon is developed (some sort of fancy death ray) and 1000 human guinea pigs are lined up to find out how lethal it is.

So all 1000 are shot at with this new weapon. 2 people die. 20 are badly injured and 80 are slightly injured. Nothing happened to the rest so it was assumed that the weapon missed totally.

The mortality rate from this weapon is calculated to be 2/102 and it causes injuries to 100/102. The conclusion would be that it is not a very effective weapon as it only killed or severely injured 22/102 and only slightly injured 80/102. It is also deemed to be not very accurate because it missed the majority of the targets.

However on closer inspection it is found that contrary to the earlier figures the weapon was more accurate then first thought because it actually did hit another 500 of 1000 that were targeted but they suffered absolutely no injuries, no ill effects whatsoever not even a small bruise.

That obviously means that the weapon is far less effective than the initial figures suggested. In other words it's a dud and should be confined to the scrap heap.

That is exactly what is happening with Covid-19. The more we find out about the virus the more we find out what a damp squib it is.

 

[eatshitndie]

joint announcement by governors in the northeast and west coast tomorrow on easing of lockdowns. most likely more retail businesses can reopen their stores and construction work can resume. group activities (such as yoga classes, tantric sex parties, orgies) with more than 6.9 persons will still be restricted. parks and beaches will reopen, but outdoor enthusiasts will need to keep physical separation of at least 6.9 feet. all must wear masks outdoors or in indoor pubic places.

 

[Wunderfool]

Just take a look at this report :



Now work the numbers. It was "50%" that had no symptoms. Now it has been scaled up to 70%.

What that means is that in the general population a lot more people than we thought have caught Covid-19 and they don't even know they are sick.

If that is not good news I don't know what is.

Supposing a new weapon is developed (some sort of fancy death ray) and 1000 human guinea pigs are lined up to find out how lethal it is.

So all 1000 are shot at with this new weapon. 2 people die. 20 are badly injured and 80 are slightly injured. Nothing happened to the rest so it was assumed that weapon missed totally.

The mortality rate from this weapon is calculated to be 2/102 and it causes injuries to 100/102. The conclusion would be that it is not a very effective weapon as it only killed or severely injured 22/102 and only slightly injured 80/102. It is also deemed to be not very accurate because it missed the majority of the targets.

However on closer inspection it is found that contrary to the earlier figures the weapon was more accurate then first thought because it actually did hit another 500 of 1000 that were targeted but they suffered absolutely no injuries, no ill effects whatsoever not even a small bruise.

That obviously means that the weapon is far less effective than the initial figures suggested. In other words it's a dud and should be confined to the scrap heap.

That is exactly what is happening with Covid-19. The more we find out about the virus the more we find out what a damp squib it is.

I can't believe that all the world's leaders are doing something stupid... even WHO who declares the covid 19 a pandemic. There must be some truth about covid 19. That it is dangerous. That people who are infected can get sick and even die. That it is highly contagious. That if the whole world population is infected, even if it is a 2% mortality rate, many will die from the virus. Is it not better to control and contain the virus rather let it loose and mutate into more deadly strains?

 

[Leongsam]

I can't believe that all the world's leaders are doing something stupid... even WHO who declares the covid 19 a pandemic. There must be some truth about covid 19. That it is dangerous. That people who are infected can get sick and even die. That it is highly contagious. That if the whole world population is infected, even if it is a 2% mortality rate, many will die from the virus. Is it not better to control and contain the virus rather let it loose and mutate into more deadly strains?

1.With ANY disease people get sick and die.

2. No disease infects everybody. Once herd immunity is achieved the infection is stopped dead on its tracks. This happens when about 60% are infected.

3. The mortality rate is not 2%. Every single data set shows that it is far lower. My estimate based upon the numbers is less than 0.1% I have shown this in numerous calculations and nobody has pointed out that my statistics is flawed. This puts it on par with influenza and we don't shut down countries because of a bad flu year so why are we doing it with Covid-19?

4. If it was possible to control and contain the virus without causing far more deaths and destruction than the actual virus I would agree that taking steps was a logical thing to do. However the data already shows that it has spread way beyond that point already so there is no point killing the world economy when the cat is already out of the bag. Everyone agrees that the younger generations are at minimal risk. All that is needed is to take care of the old folk which is what we should do at the best of times not just when a pandemic strikes.

5. If severe restrictions or the sort that are now in place are maintained for months on end starvation, suicides, deaths from other diseases will add up to far more deaths than what Covid-19 will cause.

6. It is always possible that a far more lethal virus will strike mankind in the future and regardless of what we do with Covid-19 this can still happen.

 

[tanwahtiu]

要找死... the 1% work hasnt finish yet...

joint announcement by governors in the northeast and west coast tomorrow on easing of lockdowns. most likely more retail businesses can reopen their stores and construction work can resume. group activities (such as yoga classes, tantric sex parties, orgies) with more than 6.9 persons will still be restricted. parks and beaches will reopen, but outdoor enthusiasts will need to keep physical separation of at least 6.9 feet. all must wear masks outdoors or in indoor pubic places.

 

[yinyang]

1.With ANY disease people get sick and die.

2. No disease infects everybody. Once herd immunity is achieved the infection is stopped dead on its tracks. This happens when about 60% are infected.

3. The mortality rate is not 2%. Every single data set shows that it is far lower. My estimate based upon the numbers is less than 0.1% I have shown this in numerous calculations and nobody has pointed out that my statistics is flawed. This puts it on par with influenza and we don't shut down countries because of a bad flu year so why are we doing it with Covid-19?

4. If it was possible to control and contain the virus without causing far more deaths and destruction than the actual virus I would agree that taking steps was a logical thing to do. However the data already shows that it has spread way beyond that point already so there is no point killing the world economy when the cat is already out of the bag. Everyone agrees that the younger generations are at minimal risk. All that is needed is to take care of the old folk which is what we should do at the best of times not just when a pandemic strikes.

5. If severe restrictions or the sort that are now in place are maintained for months on end starvation, suicides, deaths from other diseases will add up to far more deaths than what Covid-19 will cause.

My honest take is, this is despite the initial (well intended) moves which have been sensible to both try to control the contagion and raise consciousness of the populace.

But now it seems we're looking at the futility with probable worse scenarios

 

[Leongsam]

My honest take is, this is despite the initial (well intended) moves which have been sensible to both try to control the contagion and raise consciousness of the populace.

But now it seems we're looking at the futility with probable worse scenarios

The doomsday scenarios that the media tries to project are not going to happen. The media outlets like to make things sound as bad as possible because it helps attract viewership. Bad news attracts far more clicks than good news.

I'm not saying that Covid-19 is so mild that nobody should be concerned whatsoever. As is the case with influenza the old and the sick are particularly at risk of Covid-19 and utmost care should be taken to protect them.

All I'm saying is that we need to put things in perspective and compare it with other pandemics with similar mortality rates which have not required the shutting down of a country

 

[Wunderfool]

I have to say that China, although they took the extreme measure of locking down entire cities and provinces for 2 to 3 months, it turns out that the measures have brought about a decrease of infection cases and death rates. Compare that with the statistics with Italy and USA.

If we can do something to reduce infection and death rates, albeit by painful but necessary measures, will it not make sense to do so ?

 

[syed putra]

MOST READ

1. HOME
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WHO: Covid-19 is 10 times more deadly than swine flu
Tuesday, 14 Apr 2020 07:54 AM MYT

A medical worker walks out of a Covid-19 testing tent at Brooklyn Hospital Center in New York City. ― AFP pic
NEW YORK, April 14 ― The novel coronavirus is 10 times more deadly than swine flu, which caused a global pandemic in 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday, stressing a vaccine would be necessary to fully halt transmission.
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual briefing from Geneva that the organisation was constantly learning about the new virus sweeping the globe, which has now killed nearly 115,000 people and infected over 1.8 million.


“We know that Covid-19 spreads fast, and we know that it is deadly, 10 times deadlier than the 2009 flu pandemic,” he said.
WHO says 18,500 people died of “swine flu”, or H1N1, which was first uncovered in Mexico and the United States in March 2009, but the Lancet medical estimated the toll to be between 151,700 and 575,400.

The Lancet review included estimated deaths in Africa and Southeast Asia that were not accounted for by the WHO.

The outbreak, which was declared a pandemic in June 2009 and considered over by August 2010, turned out to be not as deadly as first feared.
Vaccines were rushed out, but in hindsight, the West, particularly Europe, and the WHO were criticised for overreacting at a time when annual influenza epidemics every year killed between 250,000 and 500,000 people, according to WHO.
Tedros lamented yesterday that some countries are seeing a doubling of cases every three to four days, but stressed that if countries were committed to “early case-finding, testing, isolating (and) caring for every case and tracing every contact” they could rein in the virus.
More than half of the planet's population is currently staying home as part of efforts to stem the spread of the virus, but Tedros warned that “our global connectedness means the risk of re-introduction and resurgence of the disease will continue”.
He pointed out that while Covid-19 had accelerated quickly, “it decelerates much more slowly.”
“In other words, the way down is much slower than the way up,” he said, stressing that “control measures must be lifted slowly, and with control. It cannot happen all at once.”
“Control measures can only be lifted if the right public health measures are in place, including significant capacity for contact tracing,” he said.
Regardless of the efforts put in place, the WHO acknowledged that “ultimately, the development and delivery of a safe and effective vaccine will be needed to fully interrupt transmission”.
A vaccine is thought to be at least 12 to 18 months away. ― AFP-Relaxnews

 

[Leongsam]

I'd love to see the data he used to come to this conclusion. It's a load of bull.

 

[Leongsam]

MOST READ

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2. LIFE

WHO: Covid-19 is 10 times more deadly than swine flu
Tuesday, 14 Apr 2020 07:54 AM MYT

A medical worker walks out of a Covid-19 testing tent at Brooklyn Hospital Center in New York City. ― AFP pic
NEW YORK, April 14 ― The novel coronavirus is 10 times more deadly than swine flu, which caused a global pandemic in 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday, stressing a vaccine would be necessary to fully halt transmission.
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual briefing from Geneva that the organisation was constantly learning about the new virus sweeping the globe, which has now killed nearly 115,000 people and infected over 1.8 million.


“We know that Covid-19 spreads fast, and we know that it is deadly, 10 times deadlier than the 2009 flu pandemic,” he said.
WHO says 18,500 people died of “swine flu”, or H1N1, which was first uncovered in Mexico and the United States in March 2009, but the Lancet medical estimated the toll to be between 151,700 and 575,400.

The Lancet review included estimated deaths in Africa and Southeast Asia that were not accounted for by the WHO.

The outbreak, which was declared a pandemic in June 2009 and considered over by August 2010, turned out to be not as deadly as first feared.
Vaccines were rushed out, but in hindsight, the West, particularly Europe, and the WHO were criticised for overreacting at a time when annual influenza epidemics every year killed between 250,000 and 500,000 people, according to WHO.
Tedros lamented yesterday that some countries are seeing a doubling of cases every three to four days, but stressed that if countries were committed to “early case-finding, testing, isolating (and) caring for every case and tracing every contact” they could rein in the virus.
More than half of the planet's population is currently staying home as part of efforts to stem the spread of the virus, but Tedros warned that “our global connectedness means the risk of re-introduction and resurgence of the disease will continue”.
He pointed out that while Covid-19 had accelerated quickly, “it decelerates much more slowly.”
“In other words, the way down is much slower than the way up,” he said, stressing that “control measures must be lifted slowly, and with control. It cannot happen all at once.”
“Control measures can only be lifted if the right public health measures are in place, including significant capacity for contact tracing,” he said.
Regardless of the efforts put in place, the WHO acknowledged that “ultimately, the development and delivery of a safe and effective vaccine will be needed to fully interrupt transmission”.
A vaccine is thought to be at least 12 to 18 months away. ― AFP-Relaxnews

Analysis: The Real Tragedy Of Not Having Enough COVID-19 Tests
How can we know when to reopen society without testing many more people?



By Elisabeth Rosenthal April 13, 2020

(John Paraskevas/Newsday RM via Getty Images)


This story also ran on The New York Times. This story can be republished for free (details).
President Donald Trump said late last month that he hadn’t “heard about testing in weeks.” But today — let’s face it — tests are being rationed in many parts of the country.
Of course, the seriously ill and essential front-line personnel like doctors, nurses and police officers require and deserve to go to the front of the line for testing.
But hundreds of thousands more people should have been tested by now, if only more tests were available. Testing them — and getting results — might have vastly changed their behavior, their self-care at home and (perhaps most important) our understanding of COVID-19, so that when it flares locally we would know how to respond in a more nuanced way, rather than shutting down society.
As of this writing, I know nearly a dozen people who are “presumed COVID.” None of them were tested because they were not sick enough to be admitted to a hospital — though all were quite symptomatic. Here’s a partial list:
Three 20-something roommates in Brooklyn, two with mild symptoms. One sick enough to visit a hospital, short of breath. No tests. All were told, “Assume you have it.”
Also “presumed COVID”: a colleague’s daughter and her boyfriend, though he had a rough two-week course, including pneumonia. His oxygen levels, measured at home, never got quite bad enough for admission (hence, no testing).



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And, finally, a reporter in San Francisco, who went to a clinic with high fever, total body aches and cough, was “presumed COVID.” She was sent home. The following day, her strep test came back positive. “Assume you have COVID, too,” she was told.


It is true that a positive COVID-19 test would not have changed any of their immediate medical treatment. They got inhalers and the medicines they needed. Not knowing probably didn’t increase their risk of death. So I don’t fault the doctors for not administering tests during a time of limited resources.


But here is what is outrageous: This resource should not be in such limited supply three months into a global outbreak. Widespread testing has a hugely important impact, not just for individuals, but also for society.


For example, if people knew they’d had COVID-19, and therefore possessed at least some immunity, they could volunteer, once fully recovered, for groups like Meals on Wheels, which is struggling to deliver food to people who can’t — even in the best of times — fend for themselves. People with immunity could serve as helpers in nursing homes, whose staffs are stretched thin and where the elderly are living in isolation.


Knowing the result of a test allows rational individual decisions. If a person living in a house with others knows whether he has the coronavirus versus a common cold (and, remember, the symptoms of COVID-19 may be very mild in younger people), it greatly affects how he interacts with family members and housemates.


If he is COVID-19 positive, it makes sense for him to totally isolate in one room and use a separate bathroom. An elderly relative might be moved out. If he has a common cold, less disruptive precautions are needed.


In this season of allergies — sneezes and sniffles — and when the country is trying to control the spread of a virus that can produce only mild symptoms in many of those infected, it would be good to be able to test as many “essential workers” — broadly defined — as possible to see if they had contracted the coronavirus.


This is not just a reference to health care workers, police and firefighters or utility workers. It is also not helpful for a food delivery person or the guy at the grocery counter, for example, to work with it, given how many people depend on their services.


We test for things like strep and sexually transmitted diseases not just because knowing test results influences treatment — should antibiotics be prescribed? — but also because the results influence the care and advice for patients’ activities and contacts.


Finally, and perhaps most important, widespread testing of all those “presumed COVID” patients who are not hospitalized gives us a far clearer picture of this new viral disease, which we currently have so little data about.


It would allow us to calculate how many people who are infected with the virus get really ill and how many die (the true case fatality rate). We are still more or less clueless about those things and, because of uneven testing, fatality rates vary widely by city, state and country.


Finally, widespread testing would allow us to have a better sense of how transmissible the virus is after more casual contact. We know that the intense exposure of health care personnel in a hospital setting often leads to transmission. But what about the co-worker who sat across the office from you and rarely interacted with you?


Long after his graduate school classes were canceled, my son was belatedly notified that one person in his German class had fallen ill with COVID-19. How many others did, but were never tested?


After this period of lockdown, COVID-19 is likely to come back in lesser waves, and robust testing data would be hugely important in fashioning a targeted response that could be less expansive than the miserable and economically devastating shutdown we are now experiencing. If one student falls ill in a class, should universities once again send all students home and cancel a semester — or just close a building? Or even cancel just one class?


Thank goodness that countries like South Korea are doing far more testing than we are, which might give us clues about how to respond. But we should be doing much more ourselves.


There have been countless explanations for the lack of tests. Our public health labs are not primed to do testing and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was slow to react to a virus many knew was likely to come our way. The agency initially distributed test kits like Senate seats — equally to each state lab, rather than where they were most needed. Then the first test kits didn’t work.


The list goes on. The Food and Drug Administration only belatedly allowed private and university labs to contribute without the normal regulatory tape. There was a shortage of swabs and a shortage of personal protective equipment for people conducting the testing. Most recently, an Abbott quick test device that Mr. Trump had applauded as a solution — “a whole new ballgame” — turned out to be only 5,500 tests, distributed nationally. Yet many millions are needed.


All are plausible explanations and many are true. But no one should be satisfied with them in this, the richest country in the world.


There are concerns, to be sure, about the accuracy of the new tests, with reports of false negatives. But that is no reason not to use what we have; the specificity of newly developed tests can improve with understanding and use. It would be wise for people who test negative to continue rigorously following good COVID-19 hygiene. But it would be a mistake to not expand testing aggressively simply because of reports of false negatives.


“Presumed positive” may be needed during a period of rationing and shortage. But “Assume you’re positive,” as so many New Yorkers are doing, is not good individual health care — or good policy.

 

[syed putra]

Of course, it's not easy to come up with a test kit to detect a new kind of corona virus. Who know what test kits they created and if it's results are correct.

 

[congo9]

Ang mo Nation is the bestest.
They have too many weak,aged and unproductive to feed. So the weakest in the society will be left to die in cold.

It good so that the social welfare can be sustainable.