This was written by a distinguished political analyst in the run-up to the 2011 Presidential Election. Read his wisdom!!
Goh Meng Seng
http://sammyboy.com/showthread.php?99218-PE-Prediction-Wishlist-Lay-it-down-here&p=805519#post805519
TKL is not the one who should worry about his deposit. TCB and TJS are the ones who should be worried about their deposits.
Put it simply, TJS are playing the opposition mode which he hopes to garner those 40% of voters who have voted opposition. However, he is gravely mistaken because those who have voted opposition in GE2011 consists of only 20% or less of hardcore anti-PAP while the other are made up of swing voters who are generally the silent majority.
TJS may not get ALL of those hardcore opposition votes, especially when he goes full blast into opposition mode of aggressiveness. Technically speaking, he has embarked on a suicidal mission with a mistaken understanding of voters profile. Those people who surround him giving him the wrong advice are basically hardcore anti-PAP people. This is the most suicidal composition in view of multi-corner fight. If it is one on one, maybe not so bad. But in multi-corner fight, we know that voters will go for those with more centrist and milder version of opposition positioning.
TCB's campaigning messages are not inspiring at all and keep repeating grandfather story of his past glories. Not many people can resonate with that kind of stories.
The worse part is for him to make a few critical mistakes. Accusing others as "vote buying" when they offer to donate part or huge part of their own Presidential salary really looks bad on him. He has been contesting under PAP and there are even MORE DIRECT vote buying by PAP through HDB upgrading and such but he has kept quiet all this while but now, suddenly, he said he has principle not to buy vote? And such reasoning of vote buying is so weak!
This is the main reason why he should worry of his deposit.
Put it simply, TJS are playing the opposition mode which he hopes to garner those 40% of voters who have voted opposition. However, he is gravely mistaken because those who have voted opposition in GE2011 consists of only 20% or less of hardcore anti-PAP while the other are made up of swing voters who are generally the silent majority.
TJS may not get ALL of those hardcore opposition votes, especially when he goes full blast into opposition mode of aggressiveness. Technically speaking, he has embarked on a suicidal mission with a mistaken understanding of voters profile. Those people who surround him giving him the wrong advice are basically hardcore anti-PAP people. This is the most suicidal composition in view of multi-corner fight. If it is one on one, maybe not so bad. But in multi-corner fight, we know that voters will go for those with more centrist and milder version of opposition positioning.
TCB's campaigning messages are not inspiring at all and keep repeating grandfather story of his past glories. Not many people can resonate with that kind of stories.
The worse part is for him to make a few critical mistakes. Accusing others as "vote buying" when they offer to donate part or huge part of their own Presidential salary really looks bad on him. He has been contesting under PAP and there are even MORE DIRECT vote buying by PAP through HDB upgrading and such but he has kept quiet all this while but now, suddenly, he said he has principle not to buy vote? And such reasoning of vote buying is so weak!
This is the main reason why he should worry of his deposit.
Goh Meng Seng
http://sammyboy.com/showthread.php?99218-PE-Prediction-Wishlist-Lay-it-down-here&p=805519#post805519
