Tesla is the worst performing stock in the S&P 500. Analysts say it has further to fall

[eatshitndie]

lol! waymo becums wayno in sf last night with an almost city wide power outage. luckily i was in burlingame which is a neighboring town south of sf.

 

[Leongsam]

 

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Let's recap what was being said about Tesla less than a year ago by some esteemed "ANALysts" who obviously know what they are talking about.

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JPMorgan’s scathing Tesla prediction: Musk’s car company will report worst quarterly deliveries in 3 years​

By Derek Saul

Published on March 13, 2025

This will be Tesla’s weakest quarter for car deliveries since 2022, according to JPMorgan analysts, as the polarizing, powerful role of Tesla boss Elon Musk in President Donald Trump’s administration increasingly weighs on Tesla in the eyes of Wall Street.​

Donald Trump, right, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk speak to the press Tuesday as they stand next to a Tesla Cybertruck at the White House. (AFP via Getty Images)

Key Facts​

• In a Wednesday note to clients, the JPMorgan group led by Ryan Brinkman lowered its forecast for Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries by 20% from 444,000 to 355,000, significantly below the consensus analyst projection of 430,000, according to FactSet.
• JPMorgan’s prediction calls for Tesla’s lowest deliveries since 2022’s third quarter and an 8% decline from 2024’s first quarter.
• The negative shift comes as Tesla faces the “acute” effects of Musk’s “more divisive new role in government,” explained Brinkman, alluding to Musk’s role as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
• Tesla sales in Europe are “under far greater pressure than at home as a consequence of statements by Musk pertaining to the war in Ukraine, U.S. participation in NATO, and far-right political parties,” Brinkman added, as new Tesla vehicle registrations cratered 50% year-over-year in January.
• And “Tesla appears to have the most to lose” among American car companies from the “shifting regulatory backdrop” under Trump, according to the analysts, citing the potential rollback of electric vehicle tax credits which could further cut into demand for Teslas.
• JPMorgan’s $120 share price target for Musk’s company is the lowest on Wall Street, according to FactSet data, and it implies more than 50% downside from Tesla’s $248 ticker Wednesday.

Crucial Quote​

“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly,” wrote the JPMorgan analysts.

Contra​

The bearish JPMorgan update came as the badly battered Tesla stock enjoyed a rebound, gaining 7.6%. Its best daily percentage gain since January, Tesla stock led a broader rally across technology stocks as tamer-than-expected inflation data restored some investor confidence. Shares of Tesla are still down 39% year-to-date, the second-worst loss of any company listed on the S&P 500, and 48% from their December all-time high.

Big Number​

53%. That’s the proportion of Americans who hold a negative view on Musk, according to a CNN poll released Wednesday, compared to 35% who hold a positive opinion and 11% who have no view.

Key Background​

JPMorgan is the latest major firm to cut its Q1 delivery forecasts for Tesla, joining the likes of Goldman Sachs and UBS. Tesla stock initially enjoyed a significant bump after Trump’s victory, which brought a close Musk ally to power, as shares gained as much as 91% from Election Day through December, before cratering as investors keyed into the potential negative impact of Musk’s controversial White House role and Trump’s tariffs weighed on the market.

Forbes Valuation​

Musk is still by far the richest person in the world with a $333.8 billion net worth, according to our latest estimates, though that’s nearly $130 billion below his fortune’s peak in December. Tesla is the primary source of Musk’s wealth, though he also holds multibillion-dollar stakes in his private companies SpaceX, X and xAI.


This article was originally published on forbes.com and all figures are in USD.

 

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The greatest miscalculation the legacy auto industry ever made was doubting Elon's approach to Full Self-Driving

For years, Wall Street aggressively shorted Tesla, and the legacy auto industry laughed. They confidently declared that Elon Musk’s approach to autonomy would fail

Today, they are realizing they are completely stuck

Here is how Elon solved the toughest problem in tech:

The First Principles Approach:

Elon admitted that FSD turned out to be exponentially harder than anyone expected. Because to solve self-driving, you aren't just writing code.....you basically have to recreate human biology in digital form

Think about it: The entire global road system is designed to work for humans. We drive using optical sensors (our eyes) and a biological neural net (our brain)

The Vision-Only Breakthrough:

While legacy auto relied on expensive crutches like LiDAR, pre-mapped routes, and hard-coded rules, Elon looked at the real world. He knew that if an AI couldn't make decisions entirely on its own, it would eventually encounter edge cases and freeze

Tesla took a path everyone deemed impossible: Vision-only, end-to-end neural networks

The result was insane

The industry that said "it will never work" is now scrambling. They completely misunderstood the problem, and now they are stuck a decade behind. Tesla has achieved what the rest of the automotive world couldn't even comprehend

Today, most people using Tesla FSD are blown away by the way it makes a decision just like a human would

All achieved with pure vision