How come so many people hated him for his recommendation to buy into Forest City in JB?
Forest city is a doomed Ghost City. TKL must be kumlan kumgong siaolang to go and buy a unit there.
Any investors who heed his advice but later lost monies in this high-risk investment will have to sue him til bankrupt LOL.
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Why Is Forest City a Ghost City, and How and Why Did It Fail?
Background on Forest City
Forest City is a $100 billion mega-project launched in 2016 by China’s Country Garden, in partnership with the Johor state government and Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar, who holds a significant stake (around 40% through Kumpulan Prasarana Rakyat Johor, with Country Garden owning 60%).
Located in Iskandar Puteri, Johor, near Singapore, it was envisioned as a futuristic metropolis on four reclaimed islands, spanning 30 km², with a target population of 700,000 by 2035. Marketed as a “dream paradise” under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, it promised luxury apartments, golf courses, water parks, and a smart, green city for wealthy buyers, primarily targeting upper-middle-class Chinese nationals looking to park wealth abroad.
Why It Became a Ghost City
Forest City earned its “ghost city” label due to its extremely low occupancy—only about 9,000–10,000 residents live there as of late 2023, far below the planned 700,000. Here’s why:
- Isolation and Lack of Appeal: Built on reclaimed islands far from Johor Bahru (a 30-minute drive), Forest City feels detached from urban life. Residents like IT engineer Nazmi Hanafiah, who left after six months, described it as a “ghost town” with “nothing to do” and a “creepy” atmosphere, citing empty streets, closed shops, and a lack of community. The distance from Singapore, despite its proximity across the Johor Strait, involves a 3-hour border crossing due to traffic, further isolating it.
- Target Market Mismatch: The project targeted wealthy Chinese buyers, offering seafront properties at prices (starting at MYR 1,200 psf in 2020, now MYR 742–1,686 psf) unaffordable for most Malaysians. Local preferences also lean toward landed properties, not high-rises, as noted by Koh Sin Yee from Monash University Malaysia. When China imposed a $50,000 annual cap on overseas spending in 2017, sales to Chinese buyers collapsed, leaving units unsold or unoccupied.
- Environmental and Regulatory Issues: The project began reclamation in 2014 without a legally required Detailed Environmental Impact Assessment (DEIA), devastating the Tanjung Kupang seagrass meadow and Pulai River Mangrove Forest Reserve, both ecologically significant areas. Local fishermen reported reduced catches and were forced into Singaporean waters, risking legal issues. Singapore protested the reclamation, citing a 2005 agreement, but Malaysia’s initial response was lax, reflecting the Sultan’s influence.
- Political and Economic Shocks: The 2018 Malaysian government change under Mahathir Mohamad restricted visas for Chinese buyers, citing concerns over a “city built for foreigners.” The 2020–2022 Malaysian political crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and China’s property market crackdown (e.g., Xi Jinping’s 2021 “houses are for living, not speculation” policy) further crippled Country Garden’s cash flow, halting progress. Only 15% of the project is built, with 5,000 unsold units out of 28,000 constructed.
- Structural Concerns: Cracks appeared in buildings and roads soon after construction, with experts suggesting the rushed reclamation didn’t allow soil to stabilize, causing sinking risks. This deterred potential residents and investors.
Reasons for Failure
Forest City’s failure stems from a combination of poor planning, external shocks, and systemic issues:
- Overambition and Cash Flow Issues: Country Garden overborrowed, a common issue in China’s property boom, and lacked sufficient cash flow to sustain the project, as noted by Tan Wee Tiam from KGV International Property Consultants. The company’s $16.5 billion offshore debt default in October 2023 exacerbated the situation.
- Misjudgment of Demand: The project assumed endless demand from Chinese buyers, ignoring local market realities and global economic shifts. Samuel Tan, a property consultant, argued that any project with over 40% foreign ownership is “doomed” if buyers don’t occupy or spend locally.
- Geopolitical and Policy Risks: China’s currency controls, Malaysia’s political instability, and the suspension of the Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) visa program deterred foreign buyers. Mahathir’s policies and U.S.-China tensions further dampened international interest.
- Environmental and Social Costs: The destruction of habitats and displacement of fishermen fueled local resentment, while the project’s elitist focus alienated Malaysians, undermining its social license to operate.
Johor Government’s Revival Efforts: Can It Succeed?
Recent Revival Efforts
Since 2023, the Johor government, under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar (now Malaysia’s king), has taken steps to revive Forest City:
- Special Financial Zone (SFZ) Designation: In 2024, Forest City was designated Malaysia’s first tax-free SFZ, offering incentives like a 15% flat income tax rate, multiple-entry visas, and fast-track entry for Singapore workers. This aims to attract global business services, banking, and fintech companies.
- Infrastructure Proposals: The Sultan has pushed to revive the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High-Speed Rail (HSR) with a stop at Forest City, alongside plans for a special lane at the Second Link and shuttle buses to Singapore, improving connectivity.
- Casino Proposal: Anwar Ibrahim met with Berjaya Corporation’s Vincent Tan and Genting Group’s Lim Kok Thay in 2024 to discuss a potential casino in Forest City, aiming to boost tourism. However, this faces challenges in Malaysia’s Muslim-majority context, where gambling is restricted for Muslims.
- Shift in Target Market: With Chinese buyers absent, the focus has shifted to local and Singaporean buyers, leveraging lower property prices (e.g., MYR 742 psf, about SGD 213 psf, compared to SGD 1,500+ psf for Singapore condos).
- Tourism and Events: Forest City has hosted golf tournaments, triathlons, and TV productions (e.g., Netflix’s “The Mole”), aiming to draw visitors and create a buzz, though attendees still note the “deserted” feel.
Can It Succeed?
While these efforts show intent, Forest City’s revival faces significant hurdles:
- Structural and Financial Challenges: Country Garden’s financial woes (facing potential liquidation like Evergrande) limit funding for completion. Reviving the project requires billions more, and the sinking land issue remains unresolved, posing safety and cost concerns.
- Occupancy and Community Issues: Even with 70–80% of units sold (as claimed by Johor authorities and Country Garden), occupancy remains below 1%. Many owners use units as holiday homes, not permanent residences, as seen with Tan Kin Lian. Without a critical mass of residents, the “ghost town” vibe persists, deterring new buyers.
- Economic and Political Risks: Malaysia’s political instability and changing policies (e.g., MM2H suspension) continue to undermine investor confidence. A casino, while potentially lucrative, risks backlash in a Muslim-majority nation, and Anwar’s support is not guaranteed.
- Competition and Market Dynamics: Singapore’s proximity is a double-edged sword—its high property prices make Forest City attractive, but its established infrastructure and lifestyle overshadow Forest City’s offerings. Johor Bahru itself offers more vibrant, affordable options closer to urban centers.
- Environmental Legacy: The ecological damage done to the Johor Strait’s seagrass meadows and mangroves remains a stain, potentially deterring eco-conscious investors and residents. Singapore’s ongoing concerns about reclamation could also resurface if the project expands.
Critical Perspective on Success
The narrative of revival is optimistic but fragile. The SFZ designation and HSR plans are promising, but they hinge on Country Garden’s survival and Malaysia’s ability to stabilize its political and economic environment. The casino idea, while bold, risks cultural backlash and may not address the core issue of residential occupancy. Forest City’s fundamental flaw—its isolation and foreign-centric design—remains unaddressed. Without a vibrant community, even the best incentives may fail to attract permanent residents.
At best, it might become a niche hub for businesses or a tourist spot, but achieving the original vision of a bustling metropolis for 700,000 seems improbable in the near term.
Tan Kin Lian’s Advocacy: Is It Good Advice?
Tan Kin Lian’s Position
Tan Kin Lian, a former Singaporean presidential candidate (2011 and 2023), owns an apartment in Forest City and frequently advocates for it on social media. He highlights its affordability (e.g., SGD 300,000 for a freehold condo versus SGD 1.5 million+ in Singapore) and potential for retirees, suggesting they sell Singapore properties to fund purchases in Forest City. He also speculates on future developments, like an HSR station, to boost its value.
Risks of Buying in Forest City
Tan’s advice, while rooted in optimism, overlooks significant risks:
- Occupancy and Lifestyle Risks: With occupancy below 1%, buyers face a “ghost town” experience—empty streets, closed shops, and a lack of community, as reported by former residents like Nazmi Hanafiah. This isolation can be particularly challenging for retirees seeking social engagement.
- Financial Risks:
- Depreciation and Liquidity: Property prices have fallen below launch rates (from MYR 1,200 psf to MYR 742 psf), and Chinese owners have sold at steep losses, indicating a supply overhang. Selling a unit in a low-demand market could be difficult, tying up capital.
- Currency Risk: The Malaysian ringgit’s volatility against the Singapore dollar (e.g., a 10% depreciation could erode 10% of the property’s SGD value) adds financial uncertainty, especially for Singaporean buyers.
- Political and Policy Risks: Malaysia’s shifting policies, like the MM2H suspension, create uncertainty for foreign owners. Anti-foreigner sentiment, as seen under Mahathir, could resurface, affecting visa access or property rights.
- Structural and Environmental Concerns: The sinking land issue raises safety concerns, and repair costs could burden owners. The project’s environmental damage might also lead to future regulatory crackdowns or reputational risks.
- Opportunity Cost: Selling a Singapore property to buy in Forest City risks losing a stable, appreciating asset. Singapore’s real estate market is a safer long-term investment compared to Forest City’s uncertain future.
Why It’s Not a Good Move
Tan Kin Lian’s advice is overly optimistic and downplays Forest City’s systemic issues. The project’s failure to attract residents, combined with its financial, political, and structural risks, makes it a high-risk investment, especially for retirees who need stability and liquidity. The “ghost town” reality undermines its appeal as a retirement destination, and the potential for an HSR station or SFZ benefits remains speculative, not guaranteed. For Singaporeans, the opportunity cost of divesting stable assets to gamble on Forest City’s revival is steep, particularly given Malaysia’s unpredictable policy landscape.
Why Tan Advocates for It
Tan’s advocacy may stem from personal optimism—he owns a unit and uses it as a holiday home, as noted in his 2023 social media posts after the presidential election. His long-term investment philosophy (e.g., “discuss in 20 years”) suggests he believes in Forest City’s eventual revival, possibly driven by his faith in Johor’s economic growth and Singapore’s proximity.
However, his perspective may also be biased by his ownership, overlooking broader risks that affect new buyers, especially retirees with limited financial flexibility.
Conclusion
Forest City became a ghost city due to its
isolated location, low occupancy (below 1%), and failure to attract residents after targeting Chinese buyers who were later restricted by China’s currency controls. Its failure was driven by overambition, Country Garden’s financial troubles, Malaysia’s political instability, environmental damage, and poor planning, leaving only 9,000–10,000 residents against a 700,000 target. The Johor government’s revival efforts—designating it a tax-free Special Financial Zone, proposing an HSR stop, and considering a casino—aim to attract businesses and tourists,
but success is uncertain due to structural issues, Country Garden’s debt, and persistent low occupancy. Tan Kin Lian’s advice to buy a house in Forest City is not a good move for most, especially retirees, due to risks like depreciation, currency fluctuations, political instability, and the “ghost town” lifestyle, which lacks community and amenities.
His optimism overlooks these systemic challenges, making Forest City a high-risk investment compared to safer options like Singapore properties. While revival efforts show potential, Forest City’s fundamental flaws make it a speculative bet rather than a reliable choice for homebuyers.
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Source: Grok Ai using real-time data.