Chua Kim Yeow is a former accountant-general and also president of DBS with both public and private sector experience, definitely more credible than NKS. Besides, it was a two-party fight between him and OTC. Totally different ball game.
I have conducted straw polls, spoken to bookies and talk to friends about the voting inclinations of their wife, parents, in-laws, children and extended family members.
So thanks to, and all credit to them and especially the bookies, I tend to be more right than wrong in my predictions and what I say.
If TKL had heeded his own conviction that the last candidate signing up for the PE should drop out to avoid a split vote, a Tharman-NKS straight fight would have resulted in a similar result to the 1993 OTC vs CKY PE. A Tharman-NKS straight fight, OTOH, would have resulted in an even bigger landslide for Tharman.
Once again, what I state is not because I am smart (far from it as otherwise, I wouldn't be working in Kim San Leng as a kopi kia). They are simply conclusions drawn from the straw polls, bookies, my conversations with people including my own research on historical voting patterns and results.
That 11-12 % swing to Tharman is caused by the middle ground deciding to vote "strategically" in favour of Tharman because they feared a "freak" result of TKL winning.