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Sinkie Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) indicator drop worries economists

Rogue Trader

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Singapore Published: 14 hours 2 min ago
NODX decline suggests Singapore is "drastically" losing competitiveness


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See why one economist thinks so.

Commenting after the release of Singapore's April non-oil domestic exports, DBS economist Irvin Seah said that external demand is not that weak so the recent slip in NODX could suggest that "Singapore is losing its competitive edge drastically, thereby affecting its domestic exports, and hence the performance of its manufacturing sector."

Here's the complete comment analysis from DBS:
May export performance has fallen short of expectation. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) contracted by 4.6% YoY and 1.1% MoM sa. The key drag came from the electronics exports, which declined 13.2% YoY and outweighed the rise in non-electronic domestic exports (0.2% YoY).

The final outcome is somewhat a surprise since a weaker SGD in May would have helped to boost export performance. The SGD weakened by about 1% versus the greenback in May compared to the previous month. So, the poor export showing is most likely the result of sluggish demand. Without the SGD depreciation, it could have been worse.


That said, external demand couldn't possibly be that weak when the non-oil re-export (NORX) has recorded the best performance in recent years. It surged by 4.9% MoM sa in May, following a healthy 13.2% rise in the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, it was up by a stunning 19.1%, after a 16% expansion in Apr13. This is the fastest growth pace for NORX since Aug10.


So what does a weak NODX and strong NORX imply? One explanation that we can think of is that external demand is not that weak but Singapore is losing its competitive edge drastically, thereby affecting its domestic exports, and hence the performance of its manufacturing sector.


External headwinds will remain strong. Data from the US have been mixed and mostly down, although market seems to think otherwise and continue to flirt with thoughts of QE tapering. Europe is still stuck in recession although Germany's economic conditions are showing some modest upticks. Most Asia economies are still holding firm but China appears to be going through an internal consolidation.

The non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods (NORI) grew by SGD 0.6bn to reach SGD 5.2bn in May, compared to SGD 4.6bn in April. Hopefully that will be manifested in better export performance in the coming months. Nonetheless, the outlook remains clouded with uncertainties. Any improvement going forward will be a bonus.
 

ILovePAP

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Productivity has gone down with the strict rules on hiring of foreign workers. The Opposition is to be blamed for this!
 

Rogue Trader

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Singapore Published: 9 hours 31 min ago
Things you need to know right now about Singapore's May NODX

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It's worse than last month's drop.

According to UOB Economic-Treasury Research, Singapore’s May non-oil domestic exports (NODX) contracted 4.6% y/y, worse than the 1.0% y/y decline seen a month ago and over-shooting consensus estimates of a milder 0.2% decline.

On an m/m SA basis, May’s NODX declined 1.1%, following the 1.1% expansion seen in April.


The decline in NODX this month was due again to the contraction in exports of electronic products, which outweighed the growth in non-electronic exports.

Here's more from UOB Economic-Treasury Research:

Singapore’s electronic NODX had declined for 10 months in a row, and contracted 13.2% y/y in May, compared to previous month’s 9.0% decline.


The decline in electronic exports was due mainly to continued weakness in PC related segments such as parts of PCs (-31.6% y/y), disk media products (-40.8% y/y), and ICs (-9.5% y/y).


Several PC-related segments had been facing structural headwinds as nominal export values had been declining for quite some time.


This will continue to weigh on the performance of electronic exports until their share becomes negligible.


For example, nominal values of exports of disk drives used to account for 21.5% of total electronic exports back in 2000.


It had been declining steadily to reach 18% by 2005, and 5.2% in 2012. The same goes for parts of PCs which saw share declining from 21.4% in 2005 to 16.1% in 2012. Consumer electronics too, declined from 6.2% in 2005 to 2.0% in 2012.


During this period, nominal value of exports of ICs grew and as a percentage to total electronic exports, it grew from 29% in 2005 to 42.3% in 2012.


 

Cerebral

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
I am not an expert, but could the reason be that due to the poor economic situation globally, a lot of countries are protectionist and trying to spur internal market demand instead of importing...
 

tonychat

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
aren't you happy that bad things happen in sinkieland..

this is what happen when you bunch of sinkies are ball-less.. your ball-lessness has lead to the decline of your country. so blame and screw yourself after your PAP has done its screwing on you.
 

Rogue Trader

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
aren't you happy that bad things happen in sinkieland..

this is what happen when you bunch of sinkies are ball-less.. your ball-lessness has lead to the decline of your country. so blame and screw yourself after your PAP has done its screwing on you.

Talking about yourself again?

You and Yap kheng hoe are the 2 big losers here who rejoice whenever bad things happen to singapore. :rolleyes:
 

winnipegjets

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
One explanation that we can think of is that external demand is not that weak but Singapore is losing its competitive edge drastically, thereby affecting its domestic exports, and hence the performance of its manufacturing sector.

And the PAP will scream this is the proof why we need to bring in 1.6 more million of foreigners!

Of course, the PAP will never admit that our lack of competitiveness is because business is not investing sufficiently in capital equipment.
 

winnipegjets

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Productivity has gone down with the strict rules on hiring of foreign workers. The Opposition is to be blamed for this!

All developed countries are way past relying on cheap labour, not the PAP's sinkapore. Why are we paying them $68 million each?
 

halsey02

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
All developed countries are way past relying on cheap labour, not the PAP's sinkapore. Why are we paying them $68 million each?

PAP are not cheap laborers, the people of SINgapore are & why the 60% don't get it, I can never understand. :p
 

DuYunQi

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Productivity has gone down with the strict rules on hiring of foreign workers. The Opposition is to be blamed for this!


Bullshit! Productivity has never gone up.. even with foreigners around. And do you know the reason why?

The simple truth is - the so-called drive for productivity has led companies to down-size and force remaining staff to take on additional roles, duties and responsibilities.

Where once there were 10 ppl in a section, now it could be down to 6 or 5, and these remaining have to "step-up" and take over what the lot who left, has left behind. One staff could be covering what was once the workload of 3 ppl. And that is "productivity"?

That is almost like slavery.. but the remaining lot have to put up with it.. or face getting sacked or laid off.

With this kind of approach to human resource management, morale will surely be affected.. so don't even talk about productivity.

It's not a good feeling to have to work past 8pm.. when before, you could leave at 6 or 7pm. And now.. it is almost like a MUST to stay back in the office or workplace longer.

Thank you 60+% who voted for PAP.. you have made life more unbearable cos they seem to value MNCs, foreigners and MONEY more than those who voted for them.
 
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